International Finance


IIEP Working Paper 2018-1
Tomas Williams, Nathan Converse (Federal Reserve Board), and Eduardo Levy-Yeyati (Universidad Torcuato di Tella).
How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets

IIEP Working Paper 2017-20
David Szakonyi (George Washington University)
Businesspeople in Elected Office: Identifying Private Benefits from Firm-Level Returns

IIEP Working Paper 2017-18
Robert Weiner (George Washington University) & Anthony P. Cannizzaro (Catholic University of America)
State Ownership and Transparency in Foreign Direct Investment: Loose-Lipped Leviathan?

IIEP Working Paper 2017-17
Paul Carrillo (George Washington University), Anthony Yezer (George Washington University), & Jozefina Kalaj (George Washington University)
Could Austerity Collapse the Economy of Puerto Rico?

IIEP Working Paper 2017-12
Tomas Williams (George Washington University)
Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market

IIEP Working Paper 2017-11
Tomas Williams (George Washington University) and Lorenzo Pandolfi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Markets: Evidence from Index Rebalancings

IIEP Working Paper 2017-10
Tomas Williams (George Washington University), Claudio Raddatz (IMF), and Sergio L. Schmukler (World Bank)
International Asset Allocations and Capital Flows: The Benchmark Effect

IIEP Working Paper 2017-5
Ajay Chhibber (George Washington University) & Akshata Kalloor (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi)
Reviving Private Investment in India: Determinants and Policy Levers

IIEP Working Paper 2016-14
Tara Sinclair (George Washington University), Pao-Lin Tien (Bureau of Economic Analysis), & Edward N. Gamber (Congressional Budget Office)
Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?

Click here to view all working papers for this category.

Sinclair, Tara, with Amy Y. Guisinger, Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, and Michael T.Owyang, “A state-level analysis of Okun’s law,” Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol 68, 239-248, January 2018

Williams, Tomas“International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect,” Journal of International Economics, September 2017.

Sinclair, Tara and Julia Bersch, “Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia,”Economics Bulletin, Vol 34, No. 3, pages 1864-1874, 2014.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakopolos, “Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation can Cause Bubbles and Crashes,” forthcoming in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4(1): 190-225.

Sinclair, Tara, Edward N. Gamber, H.O. Stekler and Elizabeth Reid. “Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation,”International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 28, Issue 2, April– June 2012, Pages 309–314.

Sinclair, Tara with Sinchan Mitra, “Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach,”Macroeconomic Dynamics, Volume 16, Issue 03, pp. 396-422. June 2012.

Fostel, Ana with Luis Catao, and Romain Ranciere, “Fiscal Discoveries, Stops and Defaults,” Paris School of Economics, 2011.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakoplos, “Why does bad news increase volatility and decrease leverage?” Journal of Economic Theory, 2011.

Joutz, Fred with C.D. Wei, “Inflation Illusion or No Illusion: What Did Pre- and Post-War Data Say?” Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 21, pp. 1599-1603. 2011.

Chao Wei, with Santoro, Marika, and “Taxation, Investment And Asset Pricing,”Review Of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 14 No. 3, pp. 443-454. 2011.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakoplos, “Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under Supply: A Simple Model,”Economic Theory.

Fostel, Ana with Graciela Kaminsky, “Latin America’s Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?” in Kevin Cowan, Sebastian Edwards, and Rodrigo Valdes (eds) Current Account and External Financing, Central Bank of Chile.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakoplos, “Emerging Markets and an Anxious Global Economy: Contagion, Flight to Liquidity and Issuance Rationing,” American Economic Review.

Joutz, Frederick L.“Interview With Herman O. Stekler,” International Journal Of Forecasting Vol. 26 No. 1, pp. 195-203. 2010.

Fred Joutz with Poonpat Leesombatpiboon, “Sectoral demand for petroleum in Thailand,” Energy Economics Vol. 32 No. 1, pp. S15-S25. 2010.

Sinclair, Tara M. and Fred Joutz, with H. O. Stekler. “Can The Fed Predict The State Of The Economy?,”Economics Letters Vol. 108 No. 1, pp. 28-32. 2010.

Sinclair, Tara M., with H. O. Stekler, and L. Kitzinger, “Directional Forecasts Of GDP And Inflation: A Joint Evaluation With An Application To Federal Reserve Predictions,”Applied Economics Vol. 42 No. 16-18, pp. 2289-97. 2010.

Wei, Chao“Inflation And Stock Prices: No Illusion,” Journal Of Money, Credit, And Banking Vol. 42 No. 2-3, pp. 325-345. 2010.

Sinclair, Tara, “Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman’s Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations,” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 14, No. 1 (2010), pp. 520-542.

Ana Fostel, with Luis Catao and Sandeep Kapur, “Persistent Gaps And Default Traps,” Journal Of Development Economics Vol. 89 No. 2, pp. 271-284. 2009.

Fred Joutz and Angela Poulakidas, “Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates,” Maritime Policy & Management Vol. 36 No. 3, pp.215-233. 2009.

Wei, Chao“Does The Stock Market React To Unexpected Inflation Differently Across The Business Cycle?,”Applied Financial Economics Vol. 19 No. 22-24, pp. 1947-59. 2009.

Wei, Chao“A Quartet Of Asset Pricing Models In Nominal And Real Economies,”Journal Of Economic Dynamics And Control Vol. 33 No. 1, pp. 154-165. 2009.

Sinclair, Tara, with H.O. Stekler, “Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 693-696, October – December 2009.

Sinclair, Tara, “The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate,”  Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 41, No. 2-3 (March-April 2009), pp. 520-542.

Fostel, Ana with John Geanakoplos, “Emerging Markets and an Anxious Global Economy: Contagion, Flight to Liquidity and Issuance Rationing,” American Economic Review.

Cipriani, Marco, “Transaction Costs and Informational Cascades in Financial Markets: Theory and Experimental Evidence” (with Antonio Guarino), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.

Cipriani, Marco, “Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets,” with A. Guarino, The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, April 2008.

Cipriani, Marco, “Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Field Experiment with Financial Market Professionals,” with A. Guarino, Journal of the European Economic Association, January 2008.
Cipriani, Marco and Graciela Kaminsky, “Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center,” Open Economies Review, vol. 18, no. 2, 157-176, April 2007.

Emran, Shahe M. with F. Shilpi, and M. Alam: “Economic Liberalization and Price Response of Aggregate Private Investment: Time Series Evidence from India”, Canadian Journal of Economics.

Cipriani, Marco with Antonio Guarino, “Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market,” American Economic Review, vol. 95, issue 5, pp. 1427-43, December 2005.

Cipriani, Marco with Antonio Guarino, “Noise Trading in a Laboratory Financial Market: A Maximum Likelihood Approach,” Journal of the European Economic Association,, vol. 3, issue 2-3, pp. 315-21 April-May 2005.

Smith, Stephen C. with Hesuk Chun “New Issues in Emerging Markets: Determinants, Effects, and Stock Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings in South Korea,”, Journal of Emerging Market Finance,”, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 253-85 ,December 2003.

Smith, Stephen C. with Beom-cheol Cin and Tzu Shian Han, “A Tale of Two Tigers: Employee Financial Participation in Korea and Taiwan,”, International Journal of Human Resource Management, Sept. 2003.


Maggie Chen

IIEP Director, Professor of Economics and International affairs

Personal Site Expertise: International trade, foreign direct investment, and regionalism Education: Ph.D. from University of Colorado at Boulder Categories of Work: U.S.-China Economic Relations, International Trade Streams of Work: Trade and Internet Governance


Frederick L. Joutz

Professor of Economics

Personal Site Expertise: Macroeconomic and energy econometric modeling, forecasting Education: Ph.D. from McGill University (Quebec) Categories of Work: International Finance

Graciela Laura Kaminsky

Professor of Economics and International Affairs

Personal Site

Expertise: International Finance, Topics in Emerging Markets, Macroeconomics, and topics in Economic Development Education: Ph.D from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Categories of Work: U.S.-China Economic Relations, Global Economic Governance, International Finance



Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs

Personal Site

Expertise: Political economy of global markets and development, politics of macroeconomic policymaking, Latin American politics Education: Ph.D from Yale University Categories of Work: U.S.-China Economic Relations, Global Economic Governance, International Finance, International Trade


Danny M. Leipziger

Professor of International Business

Personal Site

Expertise: Development Economics, International Economic Policy, Macro and Economic Growth Education: Ph.D from Brown University Categories of Work: Development Economics and Poverty Alleviation, Economics of Ultra-Poverty, U.S.-China Economic Relations, Global Economic Governance, International Finance


Jay C. Shambaugh

Professor of Economics and International Affairs

Personal Site

Expertise: International Macroeconomics Education: Ph.D from U.C. Berkeley University Categories of Work: U.S.-China Economic Relations, Global Economic Governance, International Finance


Tara Sinclair

Associate Professor of Economics and International Affairs

Personal Site

Expertise: Macroeconomics, forecasting, time series econometrics Education: Ph.D from Washington University in St. Louis Categories of Work: U.S.-China Economic Relations, Global Economic Governance, International Finance


Jennifer W. Spencer

Associate Professor of International Business and International Affairs and Director, Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER)

Personal Site

Expertise: Knowledge spillovers from multinational enterprises, knowledge diffusion and knowledge sharing, international entrepreneurship, emergence of high technology industries Education: Ph.D from University of Minnesota Categories of Work: International Trade, International Finance

Chao Wei

Associate Professor of Economics

Personal Site

Expertise: Macroeconomics, Financial Economics, Computational Economics Education: Ph.D Economics, Stanford University Categories of Work: U.S.-China Economic Relations, International Finance


Tomas Williams

Assistant Professor of International Finance

Personal Site

Expertise: International Finance, Institutional Investors, Empirical Banking, Open Economy Macroeconomics Education: Ph.D in Economics from the Universitat Pompeu Fabra Categories of Work: International Finance, Global Economic Governance


Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle in Emerging Markets
Carlos Vegh, World Bank Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean
Monday, April 30, 2018
5:30PM – 7:00PM

“Non-Linear Distortion-Based Effect of Tax Changes on Output: A Worldwide Narrative Approach”
Guillermo Vuletin (IADB)
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
2:30PM – 4:00PM
Macro-International Seminar

17th OxMetrics User Conference
Thursday and Friday, March 17-18, 2016
The Elliott School of International Affairs

IMF Africa Regional Economic Outlook Discussion
Monday, November 9, 2015
8:45 AM – 12:30 PM
International Monetary Fund

Digital Payments/Currencies: Global Threat or Opportunity?
Thursday, April 23, 2015
9:00am – 12:00pm
The Bretton Woods Committee

The I Theory of Money
Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton)
Thursday, April 9, 2015
3:00 – 4:30 PM

“Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity” (International Finance Forum Series)
Hyun Song Shin, Princeton
Friday, April 11, 2014
12:30 – 2:00 PM

Click here to view all events in this category

GW is committed to digital accessibility. If you experience a barrier that affects your ability to access content on this page, let us know via the Accessibility Feedback Form.