The Future of Finance & Trade in Africa Conference

Wednesday, April 17th
8:00 am – 7:30 pm ET
1957 E St NW, Washington DC
Elliott School of International Affairs

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to announce that the Conference on The Future of Finance and Trade in Africa will take place on Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 at the Elliott School of International Affairs. This conference was co-sponsored by the GW School of Business, The Growth Dialogue, and Believe in Africa.

Breakfast (8:00 – 9:00 am)

 

Welcome Remarks (9:00 – 9:15 am)
Ellen Granberg, President of George Washington University

Keynote Address (9:15 – 10:00 am)
The Honorable Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland

Meetings with Business Leaders by the Honorable Wes Moore (9:30 am, separate breakout room)

 

SESSION 1: Emerging Technologies for Inclusive Financial Services Delivery (9:30 – 10:40 am)

SESSION 2: Climate Finance and Financial Innovation (10:45-11:45 am)

 

LUNCH SESSION: Governors of Central Banks and the Future of African Finance (11:50 am – 1:20 pm)
Led by Danny Leipziger, Managing Director of The Growth Dialogue; Professor of Practice of International Business

SESSION 3: Financial Innovations Driving Africa’s Growth (1:30 – 2:40 pm)

Coffee Break (2:40 – 3:00 pm)

SESSION 4: U.S. Economic Policy in Africa: Supporting Progress on the Continent (3:00 – 4:00 pm)

Sponsors (4:00 – 4:30 pm)

Africa Open for Business (4:30 – 5:00 pm)

Closing Keynote Presentation (5:15 pm)
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, U.S Representative for Florida’s 20th District

Reception (5:30 – 7:30 pm)

About the Keynote Speakers

Wes Moore is the 63rd Governor of the state of Maryland. He is Maryland’s first Black Governor in the state’s 246-year history, and is just the third African American elected Governor in the history of the United States. Moore is a proud graduate of Valley Forge Military Academy and College, where he received an Associate’s degree in 1998, and was commissioned as a second lieutenant in the U.S. Army. Afterward, he went on to earn his Bachelor’s in international relations and economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. While at Johns Hopkins, Moore interned in the office of former Baltimore Mayor Kurt Schmoke. Moore was the first Black Rhodes Scholar in the history of Johns Hopkins University. As A Rhodes Scholar, he earned a Master’s in international relations from Wolfson College at Oxford. In 2005, Moore deployed to Afghanistan as a captain with the 82nd Airborne Division, leading soldiers in combat. Immediately upon returning home, Moore served as a White House Fellow, advising on issues of national security and international relations.

 


Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormickCongresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
, the first Black woman to represent Florida’s 20th congressional district, was re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2023 to serve a second term. Congresswoman Cherfilus-McCormick is honored to serve on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs as the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Technology Modernization. She is also the Chair of the Diversity & Inclusion Task Force for the Democratic Women’s Caucus, a Co-Chair of the Haiti Caucus, and serves as a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. Congresswoman Cherfilus-McCormick earned her Bachelor of Arts in Political Science and Government from Howard University. In further pursuit of education, the Congresswoman also earned a Juris Doctorate from St. Thomas University. While in office, she remains committed to tackling the growing housing crisis, inadequate access to quality health care, and lack of equitable opportunities throughout her district and country.

Book Talk: Our Next Reality: How the AI-powered Metaverse Will Reshape the World

Wednesday, March 6, 11:00 AM -12:15 PM EST

   Virtual

AI and XR are complementary and increasingly intertwined technologies. Immersive technologies use computer-generated virtual environments to enhance and extend human capabilities and experiences, while AI enhances the power of humans to analyze large pools of data to facilitate new discoveries or broader understanding. Rosenberg and Graylin argue that the wedding of these two technologies could yield a technological utopia or an AI-powered dystopia. Please join us to learn more about their optimism as well as their concerns, and their ideas for potential mitigating strategies.

 

You can pre-order the book here: Our Next Reality: How the AI-powered Metaverse Will Reshape the World

Speakers:

Alvin Graylin, Global VP of Corporate Development at HTC
Dr. Louis Rosenberg, CEO, Unanimous AI

Moderator: Joan O’Hara, Senior Vice President XR Association

Wenger Family Lecture on International Business and Finance

The New Geometry of Global Trade and International Relations

Tuesday, March 26th

4:30 – 5:30 pm

 

We are pleased to announce that Ray Brimble MA ’76, IIEP Executive Circle Member; Founder and CEO of Lynxs Holding, will be joining us as part of the Wenger Family Lecture Series on International Business and Finance on March 26th, 2024 from 4:30 – 5:30 pm ET. This event will feature a discussion with Ray Brimble and Alyssa Ayres, Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs focusing on  “The New Geometry of Global Trade and International Relations.”

The dots of global trade and relations are now often connecting in different ways. As new “geometries” emerge there is a need to adapt some assumptions. This is both challenging and ripe with new opportunities.

Mr. Brimble’s business portfolio combines entrepreneurial, managerial, and academic accomplishments spanning his career, which began when he founded his first company at the age of 22 and includes operations across North America, Latin America, and Europe. Through the years, Mr. Brimble has become known for his specialty in bringing together numerous elements such as people, ideas, capital, research, and expertise into one focused effort toward a common goal. His leadership talent has earned him a place as an international leader in Texas business circles with global impact.

This event is presented by the Elliott School Office of Development and Alumni Relations and underwritten by the Henry E. & Consuelo S. Wenger Foundation. It is co-sponsored by the Institute for International Economic Policy.

 

Ray Brimble is the Founder and CEO of Lynxs Holdings, LP, Seed/Pod Holdings LLC, and several other companies involved in aviation/aerospace, logistics, and technology. Ray Brimble

Lynxs has been a Founder, General Partner, and sponsoring investor in approximately thirty companies in North America, Europe, and Latin America, involved in transportation infrastructure with specialization in airport and aerospace facilities development. Lynxs has partnered with a variety of private and public companies, including GE, St Joes Company, and the Williams Companies, and has developed or acquired over US$800,000,000 in real estate assets over its nearly 30-year history.

Seed/Pod Holdings focuses on technology, climate-tech, and aerospace companies. Seed/Pod also seeks investments in companies that have measurable social impact. Seed/Pod has invested in over 20 companies, in the USA and Europe, including Scymaris Ltd (Marine Eco toxicology CRO services ), FindHelp, formerly Aunt Bertha (online social services referrals), Organicare (chemical and drug free medicines for better health care), Pecos Wind Power (wind turbines), Vartega (carbon fiber recycling) and SpaceX (space launch vehicles and communications satellite systems).

Mr. Brimble obtained his BA from The University of Texas in Austin in 1974, and his MA from George Washington University in 1976. Mr. Brimble is a former faculty member at the McCombs School of Business UT Austin and Chairman Emeritus of the Board of Advisors of the Center for Global Business, McCombs School of Business. Mr. Brimble sits on the McCombs Dean’s Board of Advisors, as well as the UT Austin President’s International Board of Advisors. Ray and Karen Brimble established the Brimble Global Impact Initiative at the McCombs School of Business to provide financial support and scholarships to expand international business education at McCombs and throughout the University. Mr. Brimble has edited and authored two books on international trade matters.

The Brimbles founded the One Skye Foundation in 2007 to promote and support educational and responsible globalization issues. Mr. Brimble has been a board member of several non-profit organizations including I LIVE HERE, I GIVE HERE, the Mueller Foundation, KIPP Austin Public Schools, Conspirare’, Interfaith Action of Central Texas (IACT), and is a founder of Austin Together, which supports sustained collaboration between non-profit organizations. Mr. Brimble publishes a weekly blog.

16th Annual GW China Conference

Friday, April 26th, 2024,
Lindner Family Commons, 1957 E St NW

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to announce the 16th Annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations which took place Friday, April 26th, 2024 at the Elliott School of International Affairs. This conference was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER). Breakfast, lunch, and light refreshments will be provided.

Conference Agenda:

8:30-9:00 a.m. – Breakfast and Registration
9:00-9:15 a.m. – Welcome Remarks

  • IIEP Director Remi Jedwab

9:15-10:00 a.m. Keynote Address

  • Sonali Jain-Chandra (IMF)

10:00-11:15 a.m. – Panel 1: China’s Domestic Economy

  • Chair: Chao Wei (IIEP)
  • Shaoda Wang (Chicago-Booth)
  • Yang Fang (Dallas Fed)
  • Shanjun Li (Cornell and NBER)

11:15-11:30 a.m. – Coffee break
11:30 a.m.-12:45 p.m. – Panel 2: Technological Competition and Decoupling

  • Chair: Jeffrey Ding (IIEP)
  • Yeling Tan (Oxford)
  • Roselyn Hsueh (Temple)
  • Ling Chen (Johns Hopkins)

12:45-1:45 p.m. – Lunch
1:45-3:00 – Panel 3: The Belt and Road Initiative After 10 Years

  • Chair: Stephen Kaplan (IIEP)
  • Rebecca Ray (Boston University)
  • Muyang Chen (Peking and IIEP)
  • Charles Kenny (Center for Global Development)
  • Discussant: Miles Kahler (American University and Council on Foreign Relations)

3:00-3:15 p.m. – Coffee Break
3:15-4:30 p.m. – Panel 4: Trade and U.S.-China Relations

  • Chair: Maggie Chen (IIEP)
  • Michele Ruta (IMF)
  • Jeff Schott (Peterson Institute)
  • Michael Plummer (JHU)
  • Discussant: Judy Dean (Brandeis and IIEP)

4:30 p.m. – Closing Remarks

About the Keynote Speaker

Sonali Jain-Chandra is Division Chief and Mission Chief for China at the International Monetary Fund’s Asia and Pacific Department. She has wide-ranging country experience at the IMF, having worked on China, India, Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Cambodia, Nepal and Bhutan. She was also a member of the Regional Studies Division, and has authored many chapters of the IMF publication, Regional Economic Outlook. She previously worked in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department on vulnerabilities in emerging markets and advanced economies. Ms. Jain-Chandra’s research interests and publications have mainly focused on labor markets, capital flows, international banking linkages, and financial inclusion and deepening. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University, a B.A. and M.A. in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University, and a B.A. in Economics from Lady Shri Ram College, University of Delhi.

International Day of the Forests

 Thursday, March 21st, 2024

Lindner Family Commons 6th Floor

1957 E St NW, Washington DC 20052

The George Washington University Institute for International Economic Policy at the GW Elliott School of International Affairs will host an event to commemorate the International Day of Forests to focus on the threats that climate change and deforestation pose to indigenous communities living in the Southern Hemisphere and the critical role these communities play in protecting vital ecosystems. The United Nations General Assembly proclaimed March 21 the International Day of Forests in 2012, and the 2024 theme is forests and innovation. On the International Day of Forests, countries are encouraged to undertake local, national, and international efforts to organize activities involving forests and trees.

This event brings together conservation experts and senior diplomats to encourage innovation in forest conservation in Sub-Saharan African and Latin American communities to strengthen their ties and promote cross-cultural dialogue on experiences coping with climate change.
Although the Amazon and the Congo Basin are the world’s largest remaining areas of tropical rainforests, the majority of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) nations (e.g., Bolivia, Colombia, the Equator, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela), do not have diplomatic missions in the countries that are members of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) (e.g., the Central African Republic, Cameroon, the Republic of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea). Improving diplomatic relations and cooperation will support political, economic, and social connections on crucial climate issues. Forests and innovation therefore emerge as an ideal arena for harmonizing local communities’ efforts to share best practices and unite against climate change.

 

Agenda
11:00 a.m. – 11:05 a.m:
Welcoming Remarks: Beni Dedieu Luzau, the South-South Intercultural Conservation Project’s Leader and GW MIPP candidate.

11:05 a.m. – 11:15 a.m:
Opening Remarks from Angelica Mayolo, Former Colombian Minister of Culture & Visiting Scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Environmental Initiatives.

11:15 a.m. – 11:25 p.m:
A message from Julio Guity-Guevara, Managing – Director of SUDECC, Inc., and Founder, the Afro Inter – American Forum on Climate Change.

11:25 p.m. – 12:45

Panel Discussion
This panel asks: How can governments, international organizations, and local communities support new initiatives that promote intercultural connection for knowledge exchange and conservation solutions between Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America?

H. E. Agostinho Van-Dúnem: Ambassador of Angola to the United States

H. E. Kitoko Gata Ngoulou: Ambassador of Chad to the United States

H. E. Luis Gilberto Murillo Urrutia: Ambassador of Colombia to the the United States

Hugo Jabini: Saramaka Maroon Politician and Environmental Leader from Suriname and the winner of the 2009 Goldman Environmental Prize

Martha Cecilia Rosero Pena, Social Inclusion Director (Afro Descendants Fellow), Conservation International

Moderator: Dr. Alicia Cooperman, Assistant Professor, George Washington University

12:45–1:00 p.m.:
Q & A with panelists and audience

Reception with food to follow

Trade & Development Seminar: Roman David Zarate (World Bank)

March 25, 2024

Hall of Government, 321,

2115 G Street NW, Washington DC 20052

 

Join the Columbian College of Arts & Sciences’ Department of Economics for a trade and development seminar with economist Roman David Zarate. He will present on his paper “The Gains from Foreign Investment in an Economy with Distortions,” which is a joint work with Isabela Manelici and Jose P. Vasquez from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Roman is an economist at the Trade and Integration unit of the World Bank’s Development Research Group (DEC-RG).

Dean’s Speaker Series, A Conversation with Jose W. Fernandez, Economic Security is National Security

Feburary 28, 2024

1957 E Street NW, Lindner Family Commons: Room 602

 

Jose W. Fernandez was confirmed by the Senate as Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment on August 6, 2021.  He leads the State Department’s bureaus and offices that stand at the center of the Biden-Harris Administration’s efforts on climate change, clean energy, health, supply chain security, and other economic priorities. Under Secretary Fernandez is also the United States Alternate Governor to the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Inter-American Development Bank.  From 2009 to 2013, he served as the Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, one of the bureaus he now oversees. Prior to his most recent appointment at the Department of State, Under Secretary Fernandez was a partner at Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP in New York. His practice focused on mergers, acquisitions, and finance in Europe and emerging markets, advising U.S. and foreign clients in the telecommunications, energy, water, banking, and consumer industries.

He was named one of the “World’s Leading Lawyers” by Chambers Global for his M&A and corporate work, a “Highly Regarded” practitioner by the International Financial Law Review, and one of the “World’s Leading Privatization Lawyers” by Euromoney Publications.  He has been chair of the Inter-American law committees of both the American Bar Association and The Association of the Bar of the City of New York, as well as of the Cross-Border M&A and Joint Venture Committee of the New York State Bar Association.  Most recently, Fernandez was an adjunct professor at Rutgers Law School, where he taught the course on international business transactions. A life-long supporter of the arts and education, Under Secretary Fernandez has served as a trustee of  Dartmouth College and NPR-station WBGO-FM, and on the Board of Directors of Acción International, the Council of the Americas, Ballet Hispanico of New York, the Middle East Institute, and the Partnership for Inner City Education. He was the Transition Policy Director for then-Governor-Elect Phil Murphy of New Jersey in 2017, and a director of Iberdrola S.A. until assuming his current position. The Under Secretary graduated from Dartmouth College and received an honorary degree from the College. He earned a Juris Doctor from Columbia University School of Law, where he was awarded the Charles Evans Hughes Prize and a Parker School Certificate of International Law with honors.

The Economic Prospects of Middle-Income Countries

Monday, December 4th, 2023
5:30 – 7:30 pm ET
City View Room, Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, 7th Floor

We are disappointed to inform you that, due to unforeseen circumstances, the upcoming event with Dr. Yunus has been postponed. The Wenger Lecture will continue as planned, and all those previously registered are invited to attend.

We are pleased to announce that Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, will be joining us along with Christopher Fussner, BA ’79, as part of the Wenger Family Lecture series on International Business and Finance on December 4th, 2023. This lecture will discuss “The Economic Prospects of Middle-Income Countries.” Professor James Foster will serve as the moderator.

The event will begin with a discussion from 5:30 – 6:30 pm, followed by a reception from 6:30-7:30 pm. The event will be hybrid.

About the Speaker:

Indermit Gill is Chief Economist of the World Bank Group and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
Before starting this position on September 1, 2022, Gill served as the World Bank’s Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions, where he helped shape the Bank’s response to the extraordinary series of shocks that have hit developing economies since 2020. Between 2016 and 2021, he was a professor of public policy at Duke University and non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Global Economy and Development program.

Gill led the World Bank’s influential 2009 World Development Report on economic geography. His work includes introducing the concept of the “middle-income trap” to describe how countries stagnate after reaching a certain level of income. He has published extensively on key policy issues facing developing countries—among other things, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, green growth and natural-resource wealth, labor markets, and poverty and inequality.

Gill has also taught at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago.

 

Photo of Christopher FussnerChristopher Fussner founded and owns TransTechnology Pte. Ltd. in Singapore in 1988, a major distributor of surface mount technology and semiconductor capital equipment. Headquartered in Singapore, Trans-Tec has 235 employees worldwide with offices in China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, United States, and Vietnam. He has had extensive experience in negotiating and establishing joint ventures, strategic alliances, licenses, distribution networks and sales worldwide. In addition, Mr. Fussner is also founder and owner of Certain Cellars Pte. Ltd. in Singapore, an importer and distributor of fine wines. Prior to forming these companies, Mr. Fussner headed Asia sales for Amistar Corporation based in Seoul, Korea and Singapore. As such, he was responsible for sales and service for electronics manufacturing industry machines in Australia, Asia, and India.

Mr. Fussner began his international career during the late 1978 in Ouagadougou (Upper Volta) Burkino Faso, where he was involved in aid work for Catholic Relief Services. He subsequently joined Church World Services during 1979 – 1980, devoting his time as a refugee resettlement officer in Malaysia, being responsible for the resettlement process of Vietnamese refugees. Mr. Fussner also taught English at the Hyundai Corporation in Seoul, Korea. As a young man, Mr. Fussner also worked in New York as a steamfitter, waiter, busboy, paperboy, and gardener.

Mr. Fussner received his B.A. in History and East Asian Studies from George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs (1979), and his M.I.M. (Master of International Management) at the Thunderbird School of Global Management in Phoenix, Arizona (1982). He is proficient in Chinese and French with some knowledge of Korean and Spanish.

About the Moderator:

Picture of James FosterProfessor James Foster is the Vice Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

Gross National Happiness

Monday, October 16th, 2023

IIEP was pleased to host the another installment in our multidimensional poverty series, joint with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) on Monday, October 16th, 2023. This seminar featured OPHI researcher Tshoki Zangmo discussing the concept of “Gross National Happiness”. The presentation centers around the concept of Gross National Happiness (GNH) and the development of Gross National Happiness Index in Bhutan using the Alkire-Foster method. The session features insights into the latest findings from the 2022 GNH Index, showcasing its pivotal role as a tool for informed policy decisions that prioritize the wellbeing and happiness of the populations of Bhutan. Attendees gained valuable insights into how the results from the GNH Index are actively shaping Bhutan’s national planning and budgeting processes.

 

1st World Bank-GWU-UVA Research Conference on “The Economics of Sustainable Development”

Wednesday, November 29th, 2023
8:00 AM – 7:30 PM

Hybrid

The World Bank, in collaboration with George Washington University (GWU) and the University of Virginia (UVA), will host the 1st World Bank-GWU-UVA Conference on “The Economics of Sustainable Development”.

This hybrid conference will be held at the World Bank headquarters in Washington DC on November 29, 2023, from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. ET and available via livestream. Coffee and lunch will be provided for in-person attendees. The conference will be followed by a reception at GWU from 6:00 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. ET.

The conference will bring together academics and development economics practitioners to present and discuss pressing questions relating to sustainable development, a theme that is central to the World Bank’s mission of tackling poverty on a liveable planet.

This theme is of increasing importance due to the growing recognition that a commitment to development and tackling poverty is unviable without an equal commitment to the urgency of addressing climate change, pollution, and environmental degradation.

The conference will cover various topics, including biodiversity and forests, the economics of natural resources, and pollution. Furthermore, given Africa’s heavy reliance on renewable natural resources and its vulnerability to climate change impacts, there will be a particular focus on frontier work related to Africa.

Supported by the GW University Seminar Series on Domestic and International Perspectives on Climate Change and Water Management.

Conference Agenda

Welcoming remarks 8.00-8.15

Richard Damania (Chief Economist for Sustainable Development, World Bank) – 5 min

Andrew Dabalen (Chief Economist for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), World Bank) – 5 min

Sheetal Sekhri (UVA) or Molly Lipscomb (UVA) – 1 min

Remi Jedwab (GWU) – 1 min

Session 1 – 8.15-10.00 – Biodiversity and Forests

Each paper has 20 min without interruptions + 10 min Q&A

8.15-8.45 Paper 1: Raahil Madhok (Minnesota), Infrastructure, Institutions, and the Conservation of Biodiversity in India [South Asia]

8.45-9.15 Paper 2: Teevrat Garg (UCSD), Agricultural Productivity and Deforestation [SSA]

9.15-9.45 Paper 3: Anna Papp (Columbia), Rain Follows the Forest: Land Use Policy, Climate Change, and Adaptation [North America]

9.45-10.00 Policy discussion: Nancy Lozano Gracia (Lead Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean, Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank)

Coffee Break – 10.00-10.30

Session 2 – 10.30-12.15 – The Economics of Natural Resources

Chair: Richard Damania (Chief Economist, Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank)

Each paper has 20 min without interruptions + 10 min Q&A

10.30-11.00 Paper 1: Wolfram Schlenker (Columbia), Cooling Externality of Large-Scale Irrigation [North America]

11.00-11.30 Paper 2: Ryan Brown (CU-Denver), Reinforcing Inequality: Consequences of Elevated Fluoride Exposure and Inequitable Mitigation [South Asia]

11.30-12.00 Paper 3: Witold Więcek (University of Chicago), Water Treatment and Child Mortality: A Meta-Analysis and Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

12.00-12.15 Policy discussion: Hanan Jacoby (Lead Economist, Sustainability and Infrastructure Team, Development Research Group, World Bank)

Lunch Break – 12.15-1.00

Keynote – 1.00-2.00

1.00-1.05 Introduction

1.05-1.35 Keynote – Andrew Foster (Brown)

1.35-1.55 Policy discussion

Session 3 – 2.00-3.15 Climate Change in Africa and Asia

Chair: Andrew Dabalen (Chief Economist, Africa Region, World Bank)

Each paper has 12 min without interruptions + 8 min Q&A

2.00-2.20 Paper 1: Lucile Laugerette (F) (ENS-Lyon) and Mathieu Couttenier (M) (ENS-Lyon) – Groundwater, Climate Change and Conflict: Evidence from Africa [SSA]

2.20-2.40 Paper 2: Bruno Conte (M) (UPF) – Future Climate Change and Sub-Saharan Africa’s Regional Lake Economies [SSA]

2.40-3.00 Paper 3: Gaurav Chiplunkar (M) (UVA) – Environmental Markets and Misallocation: Evidence from Ground Water Availability in India [South Asia]

3.00-3.15 Policy discussion: Carolyn Fischer (Research Manager, Sustainability and Infrastructure Team, Development Research Group of the World Bank)

Coffee Break – 3.15-3.40

Session 4 – 3.40-5.45 – Air Pollution

Chair: Dina Umali-Deininger (Regional Director for South Asia, Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank)

3.40-4.00 Introductory presentation: Christa Hasenkopf (EPIC, University of Chicago): Insights from the latest Air Quality Life Index report, with a specific focus on sub-Saharan Africa [SSA]

Each of the following three papers has 20 min without interruptions + 10 min Q&A

4.00-4.30 Koichiro Ito (Chicago). International Spillover Effects of Air Pollution: Evidence from Mortality and Health Data. [EAP]

4.30-5.00 Saad Gulzar (M) (Princeton). Administrative Incentives Impact Crop-Residue Burning and Health in South Asia. [South Asia]

5.00-5.30 Susanna Berkouwer (Wharton): Private Actions in the Presence of Externalities: The Health Impacts of Reducing Air Pollution Peaks but not Ambient Exposure

5.30-5.45 Policy discussion: Helena Naber (Senior Environmental Specialist, Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice, World Bank)

Poverty and human development challenges in Arab countries

Monday, November 20th, 2023
4 p.m EDT

Online

Presenters:

Adeel Malik is a development macroeconomist with a strong multi-disciplinary orientation. His research engages with questions of long-run development, political economy and economic history, with a special focus on Muslim societies. His work combines quantitative and qualitative research methods. Apart from engaging with cross-country empirics on development, he is trying to develop a broader research lens on the political economy of the Middle East. His most recent contribution to the field was an article on ‘The Economics of the Arab Spring’, which received the Best Paper Award. It has now been translated into Arabic and several other languages, and formed the basis for a dedicated story in The Economist magazine. Another emerging area of interest is the interplay between religion, land and politics in Pakistan, which he is exploring as part of an IFPRI-funded project on structural constraints to public goods provision in Punjab.

 

Khalid Abu-Ismail is Senior Economist at United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). He currently leads or co-leads ESCWA’s work on global development challenges, beyond GDP, economic resilience, poverty, inequality and has formerly led ESCWA’s work on Economic Growth, Employment, MDGs, Middle Class, Fiscal Policies, and the Arab Vision 2030. He is the lead author of more than 50 technical papers and 20 UN flagship publications, including the 2022 World Development Challenges Report and the 2017 and 2023 Arab Multidimensional Poverty Reports. Formerly, he held positions of Poverty and Macroeconomic Policy Advisor at the United Nations Development Program Regional Offices for Arab States (2002-2012), Assistant to Minister of Public Enterprises in Egypt (1997) and Lead Economist with the Egyptian Cabinet’s Decision Support Center (1992-95). Khalid is a Policy Affiliate at the Middle East Economic Research Forum and a former Guest Lecturer at the Faculty of Economics of the Lebanese American University. He has a D. Phil. in Development Economics from the New School for Social Research in New York and MPhil in Development Planning and the Environment from the University of Dundee in Scotland.

 

Belonging in the Digital World: A Conceptual Framework and a Systematic Review of the inter-generational impact of Social Media on ‘Belonging’ in Adolescents and Older Adults

Monday, November 6th, 2023
4 p.m EDT
Online

Abstract

Social connectedness in human beings has been found to impact clinical indicators of physical and mental health. In the present age, digital technology adoption including the use of social media or social networking sites is being normalized for creating or maintaining social relationships. However, the pace and pattern of such adoption and its influence on social health may vary intergenerationally. We outline present evidence and research gaps in the current understanding of the impact of social media on social health. We then rationalize and conceptualize a multi-dimensional analytical framework for the assessment of ‘Belonging’ in the digital world, specifically in the context of social media use (SMU). Using PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) guidelines, and collated data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies, we examine and compare recent evidence on the impact of social media on ‘Belonging’ in adolescents and older adults. Finally, we recommend potential opportunities for future research and policy to contribute to a more nuanced perspective on the role played by SMU in inter-generational belonging.

 

Presenters:

Kim Samuel is a Visiting Scholar at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, where she studies the relationship between social isolation and multidimensional poverty as well as the broader link between human belonging and well-being. She is the founder of the Samuel Centre for Social Connectedness and an academic lecturer at institutions including Oxford, Harvard, and McGill universities.  Kim is the author of On Belonging: Finding Connection in an Age of Isolation (Abrams Press: September 2022) and serves as the first-ever Fulbright Canada ambassador for diversity and social connectedness.

 

 

Prenika Anand is a Leslie Kirkley Visitor at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. Prenika has completed an MSc in Applied Digital Health from the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford. She holds a Masters degree in Health Administration from Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, and a Bachelor’s degree in Dental Surgery. Her professional experience includes product management and consulting for preventive health, workplace well-being, economic incentives for healthy behaviors and digital health management ecosystem.

 

 

Inaugural Washington Area Network Economics Symposium (WANES)

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The Inaugural Washington Area Network Economics Symposium (WANES) is a research conference that highlights academic work from researchers at leading economics institutions in network economics in the Washington DC area.

Friday, September 8, 2023
9:00 am – 6:00 pm ET

Lindner Commons
Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E St. NW
George Washington University

Conference Program

9:00 am – 9:15 am: Welcome

Session 1: Pathways to Persistence; Commodity Prices and Production Networks

9:15 am – 10:45 am

1. Margit Reischer, Pathways to Persistence (joint with V. Carvalho), Georgetown University

2. Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Commodity Prices and Production Networks in Small Open Economies (joint with A. Silva, P. Caraiani, J. Olaya-Agudelo), IMF

10:45 am – 11:00 am: Coffee break

Session 2: Trade and War; Alliance Formation

11:00 am – 12:30 pm

1. Chao Wei, Trade and War: A Global Input-Output Network Perspective (joint with H. Tzavellas), George Washington University

2. Peter Devine, Alliance Formation in a Multi-Polar World (joint with S. Joshi and A. Mahmud), Council on Foreign Relations & George Washington University

12:30 – 1:30 pm: Lunch

Session 3 Financial Networks: Regulation; Interconnectedness in Corporate Bond Market and CDS Market

1:30 pm – 3:55 pm

1. Carlos Ramirez, Regulating Financial Networks: A Flying Blind Problem, Federal Reserve Board

2. Chaehee, Shin, Interconnectedness in the Corporate Bond Market (joint with C.Brunetti, M.Carl, J.Gerszten, C.Scotti) , Federal Reserve Board

(3:00 pm – 3:10 pm: Mini-break)

3. Mark Paddrik, Intermediation Networks and Derivative Market Liquidity: Evidence from CDS Markets (joint with S.Tompaidis), Treasury

3:55 pm – 4:15 pm: Coffee break

 Session 4 Network Games; Religion and Social Networks

4:15 pm – 5:45 pm

1. Hector Tzavellas, Network Games Under Uncertainty (joint with P. Chaudhuri and S. Sarangi.), Virginia Tech

2. Hilton Root, Disruptive Innovation in the Economic Organization and China and the West, George Mason University

6:00 pm: Adjourn

5th Washington Area International Finance Symposium (WAIFS)

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Friday, September 22nd, 2023
9:00 am – 5:00 pm (ET)
Lindner Commons (Room 602)
Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
1957 E Street NW
Washington, D.C. 20052

The 5th Washington Area International Finance Symposium (WAIFS) is a research conference that highlights academic work from researchers at leading finance institutions in the Washington DC area. Breakfast and Lunch will be provided.

 

Agenda

9:00–9:15 Introductory Remarks

9:15–10:15 “The Unintended Consequences of Financial Sanctions” – Ritt Keerati (Federal Reserve Board)
Discussion: Andres Fernandez (International Monetary Fund)

COFFEE BREAK (10:15–10:30)

10:30–11:30 “Reexamining Sovereign Spreads” – Stelios Fourakis (Johns Hopkins University)
Discussion: Ignacio Presno (Federal Reserve Board)

11:30–12:30 “Buyer Market Power and Exchange Rate Pass-Through” – Leticia Juarez (Interamerican Development Bank)
Discussion: Hiau Looi Kee (The World Bank)

LUNCH (12:30–1:30)

1:30–2:30 “Corporate Credit Risk and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies” – Tatjana Schulze (International Monetary Fund)
Discussion: Sergio Schmukler (The World Bank)

2:30–3:30 “Liability Dollarization and Exchange Rate Pass-Through” – Annie Lee (Johns Hopkins University SAIS)
Discussion: Sai Ma (Federal Reserve Board)

COFFEE BREAK (3:30–3:45)

3:45–4:45 “Shock Propagation with Multi-Sector Firms” – Vladimir Smirnyagin (University of Virginia)
Discussion: Senay Agca (George Washington University)

4th Annual DC-MD-VA Econometrics Workshop

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Saturday, September 23rd, 2023
9:00 am – 5:00 pm ET
Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Family Commons (6th Floor)
1957 E Street, NW, Suite 501
Washington, DC 20052

 
9:00-9:30 Breakfast and Welcome (light breakfast will be provided for all attendees)
 
 
 
9:30-11:00 Session 1A (Chair: Ben Williams)
Xu Lin (Virginia Tech), “Network Structures and Economic Behaviors”
Ali Habibnia (Virginia Tech), “A Time-varying Causal Inference Framework for Modeling Systemic Risk in High-Dimensional Financial Networks” (joint with Jalal Etesami and Negar Kiyavash)
 
 
11:00-11:15 Coffee Break
 
 
11:15-12:00 Session 1B (Chair: Ben Williams)
Lixiong Li (Johns Hopkins), “Finite Sample Inference in Incomplete Models” (joint with Marc Henry)
 
 
12:00-1:30 Lunch (catered lunch will be provided for all attendees)
 
 
1:30-3:00 Session 2 (Chair: Nicholas Li)
Fangzhu Yang (Johns Hopkins), “The Effect of China’s Universal Two-Child Policy on Gender Inequality”
Shervin S. Tehrani (UT-Dallas), “Estimating Position and Social Influence Effects in Online Search: An Empirical Generalized Weitzman Model” (joint with Andrew T. Ching, Ata Jameei Osgouie, and Brian Ratchford)
 
 
3:00-3:15 Coffee Break
 
 
3:15-4:45 Session 3 (Chair: Robert Phillips)
Eric Nielsen (Federal Reserve Board), “Identification and Estimation of Average Marginal Treatment Effects with a Bunching Design” (joint with Carolina Caetano and Gregorio Caetano)
Nicholas Li (George Washington), “Bunching as Quantile Differences with Implications for Welfare Analyses”

This conference is hosted by The Institute for International Economic Policy. The workshop, held annually on the third Saturday in September, is meant to gather faculty and graduate students working in Econometrics for a one-day event.

 

Generative AI 101

Friday, May 5
11:00-12:00 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

Generative AI is many things: it is simultaneously scary, useful, flexible, opaque, exciting, and dangerous. Researchers, policymakers, creatives and executives around the world are turning to these models to answer complex questions, rethink practices and procedures, and save time. Large language models are performing scientific research in many fields, while democratizing access and understanding of some types of AI. Yet researchers struggle to explain what these systems are actually doing, and how they utilize personal, public and proprietary data to answer our prompts. The data giants with huge computing power, skilled workers, and large troves of data are the main suppliers of generative AI and reaping many of the potential income and investments. Moreover, these systems are not perfect: they  make mistakes, do not have real time information and can perpetuate inaccuracies and disinformation. Finally, there is growing evidence that these chat-bots can both upskill (help less educated workers be productive) and deskill. In this webinar, we asked three researchers of varied backgrounds (computer science, communications, and systems engineering)  to discuss generative AI–its potential and pitfalls. We engaged in a moderated discussion for about 30 minutes and then we opened up the floor to audience questions.

Speakers:

Moderator:

Dr. Susan Ariel Aaronson, Director, Digital Trade and Data Governance Hub, Research Professor and Cross-Disciplinary Fellow, GWU

2023 Washington Area Labor Economics Symposium

Friday, 28th April, 2023

Copley Formal Lounge

The Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy is pleased to host the fifth annual Washington Area Labor Economics Symposium (WALES) on April 28, 2023.

WALES is a one-day labor economics conference bringing together researchers from DC-area institutions. The conference provides an outlet to share recent or ongoing research on a broad range of topics in labor economics in both developed and developing country settings, and offers an opportunity to meet and network with other researchers in the area.

Please feel free to distribute this widely to your networks: All are welcome to attend! Please email WALESconference@georgetown.edu with questions.

Location

The conference was held in person on Friday, April 28 in Copley Formal Lounge on Georgetown University’s main campus. Directions to the Copley Formal Lounge can be found here.

Agenda

9:00-9:25 Welcome breakfast and coffee

9:25-9:30 Welcome remarks

9:30-10:30 Session 1 

  • Moises Yi, “Size Matters: The Benefits of Large Labor Markets for Job Seekers,” U.S. Census Bureau
  • Benjamin Raymond, “The Impact of Referral-Networks on Sectoral Reallocation: Job Search Asymmetries and the Network Wedge,” Bureau of Labor Statistics

10:30-10:40 Coffee Break

10:40-12:10 Session 2

  • Laurent Bossavie, “The Effects of Subsidizing Social Security Contributions: Job Creation or Formalization?” World Bank
  • Sammy Young, “Unionization, Employer Opposition, and Establishment Closure,” U.S. Census Bureau
  • Sandra Rozo, “Electoral Consequences of Facilitating Forced Migrant’s Integration,” World Bank

12:10-1:10 Lunch and poster session

1:10-2:10 Session 3 

  • Jishnu Das, “Randomized Regulation: The Impact of Minimum Quality Standards on Health Markets,” Georgetown University
  • Isabel Cairo, “Labor Market Discrimination and the Racial Unemployment Gap: Can Monetary Policy Make a Difference?“ Board of Governors

2:10-2:20 Coffee Break

2:20-3:50 Session 4

  • Elira Kuka, “Spillover Effects of Welfare Programs,” George Washington University
  • Sita Slavov, “Does Information Influence the Choice between Social Security Disability and Early Retirement?” George Mason University
  • Krista Ruffini, “Does Unconditional Cash during Pregnancy Affect Infant Health?” Georgetown University

3:50-4:00 Coffee Break

4:00-5:00 Session 5  

  • Soumitra Shukla, “Making the Elite: Top Jobs, Disparities, and Solutions,” Board of Governors
  • Kevin Rinz, “Re-examining Regional Income Convergence: A Distributional Approach,” U.S. Census Bureau

5:00-6:00 Reception and networking

  • Old North 205

Poster presentations:

  • Esther Arenas Arroyo, “Low-Skilled Worker Shortages and Firm Performance,” Vienna University of Economics and Business
  • Sungbin Park, “Did Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Prolong Unemployment but Reduce Covid Deaths?” George Mason University
  • Nathalie Gonzalez-Prieto, “Career Effects of Working at a Startup,” University of Maryland
  • Alexander McQuoid, “Peter Peter, Naval Leader, Had a Job but Couldn’t Keep Her – The Peter Principle in the US Navy,” U.S. Naval Academy
  • Alejanda Montoya, “The Heterogeneous Value of Four- and Two-year College Choices,” University of Maryland
  • Catalina Morales, “Am I Good Enough? The Effect of Non-cognitive Skills on College Applications,” University of Maryland
  • Rachel Nesbit, “Mental Health in the Criminal Justice System: The Effect of Mandated Therapy for Convicted Individuals,” University of Maryland
  • Miguel Sarzosa, “Childhood Gender Nonconformity and Gender Gaps in Life Outcomes,” Purdue University
  • Cristina Tello-Trillo, “Trade Liberalization and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US Matched Employer-Employee Data,” U.S. Census Bureau
  • Sean Wang, “What is the Price for Opportunity? The Effects of Employer Learning on Worker Promotions and Turnover,” U.S. Census Bureau

Measuring the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Multidimensional Poverty Reduction

Wednesday, 15th March, 2023

In this paper we propose indicators of impact and spending effectiveness of fiscal interventions for multidimensional poverty reduction. We bring together CEQ’s fiscal incidence methodology with OPHI’s multidimensional poverty methodology, using an MPI with the 𝑀0 structure as the metric for evaluation. The effectiveness indicators in the multidimensional case need to simultaneously consider the best allocation of money across dimensions (which deprivations to lift?) and across households (to whom should they be lifted?). In the impact effectiveness indicator, the observed poverty reduction is compared against the optimal reduction that could have been achieved. In turn, the spending effectiveness indicator compares the observed spent budget with the minimum budget that could have been spent had the money been allocated optimally. We consider two alternative criteria to find the optimal allocation: one that prioritizes reducing poverty (either incidence or intensity) to the biggest number of people -the MaxN-LNOB criterion- and another which prioritizes reducing poverty among poorest poor -the LNOB-MaxN criterion- which is a form of prioritarianism. When household sizes are ignored or poverty identification is done at the individual level, the two criteria coincide. The proposed methodology can be implemented using cross-sectional household survey (or census) data, alongside information on the cost of removing each deprivation at the household level, and information on the public spending the government has allocated or plans to allocate to the dimensions under analysis. The methodology can be implemented ex-post, as an effectiveness assessment, as well as ex-ante, to guide a multidimensional poverty reduction programme.

 

Maria Emma Santos is a Research Associate at OPHI and a Post-Doctoral Fellow of the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET), Argentina. Her research interests include the measurement and analysis of chronic and multidimensional poverty, the quality of education, its determinants, and its role for poverty persistence. She is particularly interested in Latin American countries.

 

James Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr., Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the FGT poverty measures, the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About The Series:

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as race, ethnicity, gender, and caste, the statistical capacity of nations, social protection, the use of geospatial mapping in tracking poverty, poverty and refugees, and evaluating whether we’re on track to meet UN SDG Goal #1. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 11 a.m. ET. They are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

The Future of Global Poverty Alleviation Through Social Business

Friday, March 24th, 2023
9:30-10:30 p.m EDT
In-Person

About the Speaker:

Picture of Muhammad YunusNobel Laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus is the founder of Grameen Bank, pioneering the concepts of microcredit and social business, founding more than 50 Social Business companies in Bangladesh. For his constant innovation and enterprise, the Fortune Magazine named Professor Yunus in March 2012 as “one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.” At the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 Professor Yunus was conferred with the Olympic Laurel award for his extensive work in sports for development, bringing the concept of social business to the sports world.
In 2006, Professor Yunus and Grameen Bank were jointly awarded Nobel Peace Prize.

Dr. Yunus is the recipient of 63 honorary degrees from universities across 26 countries. He has received 143 awards from 33 countries including state honours from 10 countries. He is one of only seven individuals to have received the Nobel Peace Prize, the United State Presidential Medal of Freedom and the United States Congressional Gold Medal. He has appeared on the cover of Time magazine, Newsweek and Forbes magazine. In 2016 GWU awarded him the President’s Medal in recognition of his service.

Professor Yunus has been stressing the need for a basic decision of ‘No Going Back’ to the old ways of thinking and doing. He proposes to create new roads to go to a new destination by creating a World of 3 Zeros – zero net carbon emission, zero wealth concentration for ending poverty once for all, and zero unemployment by unleashing entrepreneurship in everyone.

His recent focuses are:

a) Professor Yunus has been campaigning for making the Covid 19 Vaccine as a Global Common Good since June, 2020, urging the World Trade Organization to place a temporary waiver on Intellectual Property right on vaccine to free up the global capacity to produce vaccines at all locations around the world.

b) Professor Yunus has launched a programme of creating a network of 3ZERO Clubs, each club to be formed by five young people. The programme aims to engage the global youth in initiating actions for creating solutions for global problems

Sustainable Cities Workshop on “Urban Inclusion and Development”

Tuesday, May 9th, 2023
9:30-1:45 EDT
In-Person and Virtual

Globally, 55% of the population lives in urban areas today. By 2045, the number of people living in cities will increase by 1.5 times to 6 billion, adding 2 billion more urban residents. With more than 80% of global GDP generated in cities, urbanization can contribute to sustainable growth if managed well by increasing productivity, allowing innovation and new ideas to emerge. This workshop brings together academics and development practitioners to present and discuss questions relating to Sustainable Urbanization.

This discussion was organized by the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at GWU in partnership with the World Bank (Urban Global Practice).

Please note that those who register to attend in person are strongly encouraged to attend as lunch will be ordered for the specific number of registrants. Light breakfast, lunch, and coffee will be provided with the support of the University Seminar Series on The Global Socio-Economic Costs of Climate Change and Unsustainable Urbanization.

 

9.30-9.35 – Opening Remarks: Chairs: Remi Jedwab (GWU) and Mark Roberts (Lead Urban Economist with the Urban, Resilience and Land Global Practice, World Bank)

Academic Presentations, Chair: Nicholas Li (GWU)

9.35-9.55 – Simon Franklin (QMU),“Urban Density and labour markets: Evaluating slum redevelopment in Addis Ababa”
9.55-10.00 – Discussant: Fernanda Rojas Ampuero (Harvard)
10.00-10.10 – Q&A

10.10-10.40 – Michael Gechter (Penn State), “Spatial Spillovers from Urban Renewal: Evidence from the Mumbai Mills Redevelopment”
10.40-10.45 – Discussant: Roman Zarate (World Bank)
10.45-10.55 – Q&A

10.55-11.25 – Milena Almagro (Chicago Booth), “Urban Renewal and Inequality: Evidence from Chicago’s Public Housing Demolitions”
11.25-11.30 – Discussant: Leah Brooks (GWU)
11.30-11.40 – Q&A

11.40-11.50 – Coffee

Lightning Talks, Chair: Tanner Regan (GWU)

11.50-12.00 – Mariaflavia Harari (Wharton), “Residential Patterns in Urban Brazil”
12.00-12.05 – Q&A

12.05-12.15 – Jingwen Zheng (GWU), “Estimating the Negative Externalities from Urban Blight: Evidence from the Demolition of Kowloon Walled City in Hong Kong”
12.15-12.20 – Q&A

Concluding Session, Chair: Carlos Rodriguez Castelan (Practice Manager in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank)

12.20-12.40 – Mini-keynote with Maisy Wong (Wharton). “Urban Slums and Development: the Research Frontier”
12.40-12.50 – Discussant with Policy Reflections: Judy Baker, (Global Lead – Urban Poverty, Inclusive Cities and Housing, World Bank)
12:50-12:55 – Q&A

12.55-1.00 – Closing Remarks: Nancy Lozano (Lead Economist Sustainable Development, LAC, World Bank) and Tanner Regan (GWU)

1.00-1.45 – Lunch

U.S. India Cooperation in a Changing Global Economy and India’s Pathways to Success

Thursday, April 20th, 2023
5:00-7:00 p.m EDT
In-Person

We are pleased to invite you to a panel on, “U.S. India Cooperation in a Changing Global Economy and India’s Pathways to Success” with speakers Dr. Uma Ganesh (Global Talent Track), Dr. Ejaz Ghani (Pune International), Dr. Remi Jedwab (IIEP), and Dr. Ganesh Natarajan (5F World) and moderator Pallabi Saboo. This event is co-sponsored by TiE DC and the Harvard Club of Washington DC.

 

About the Speakers:

Dr. Uma Ganesh is an expert in entrepreneurial strategy, skills development, and digital employee management platforms. She is the Founder of Global Talent Track, a leading vocational skills company that uses a blended learning model to bridge academia and the industry. She is the Co-Founder of 5F World, a platform for global consulting, investing, and mentoring in digital skills and digital transformation for start-ups and social enterprises, and has authored multiple books on knowledge, management, and digital success.

 

 

 

Dr. Ejaz Ghani is a Senior Fellow at Pune International. He is a former Lead Economist at the World Bank and former consultant at the International Labour Organization, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and UNICEF. He previously was a Professor of Economics at Oxford University and Delhi University. He is an expert on topics including economic growth, macroeconomic policy, poverty, employment, entrepreneurship, urbanization, gender trade, decentralization, and agriculture.

 

 

 

Dr. Remi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University, the Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy and the Director of the ESIA Initiative on Climate Change and Sustainable Cities at George Washington University, and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are urban and real estate economics, development and growth, environmental economics, and labor economics. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, urban construction and climate change, the economic determinants and effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development and growth. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium.

 

 

 Dr. Ganesh Natarajan is the Co-Founder of 5F World, a platform for global consulting, investing, and mentoring in digital skills and digital transformation for start-ups and social enterprises. He is the Chairman of Honeywell Automation India and Lighthouse Communities Foundation, as well as a Central Board Member of the State Bank of India, Global Talent Track, and AVPN Singapore.

 

 

 

 

About the Moderator:

Pallabi Saboo is the Executive Chair and Founder of Harmonia Holdings Group, LLC. She serves on the Fairfax Economic Development Authority Board, Asian American Chamber of Commerce Board, George Mason University President’s Innovation Advisory Council, The Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE) DC Board, Northern Virginia’s Chamber of Commerce Strategic Leadership Board of Advisors, and as an Officer of the Harvard Club of Washington DC. She was named one of the Top 25 Female CEOs in the DMV in 2008 and received the US President’s Volunteer Service Award in 2021

 

12th Annual WAITS

Friday, April 21st, 2023,
9:00 am – 7:00pm ET
134 Van Metre Hall Auditorium
George Mason University

Conference Program

 

08:30-08:55: Breakfast

08:55-09:00: Opening Remarks

 

Session I: Frictions and Trade

9:00-9:45: Brian Cevallos Fujiy (U.S. Census Bureau), “Cultural Proximity and Production
Networks”
Discussant: Yingyan Zhao (GWU)

9:45-10:30: Christian Volpe (Inter-American Development Bank), “The Value of International
Certifications”
Discussant: Andrew McCallum (Federal Reserve Board)

 

10:30-11:00: Coffee Break

 

Session II: Immigration

11:00-11:45: Mine Senses (JHU SAIS), “The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the United States:
Evidence at the Local Level”
Discussant: Charly Porcher (Georgetown)

11:45-12:30: Michael Clemens (GMU), “The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US
Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery”
Discussant: Juan Blyde (Inter-American Development Bank)

 

12:30-13:15: Lunch

 

Session III: Trade and Inequality

13:15-14:00: Miguel Acosta (Federal Reserve Board), “The Regressive Nature of the U.S. Tariff
Code: Origins and Implications”
Discussant: Daniel Bernhofen (American)
14:00-14:45: Kara Reynolds (American), “Backlash against Trade in an Unequal World”
Discussant: Cristina Tello-Trillo (U.S. Census Bureau)

 

14:45-15:15: Coffee Break

 

Session IV: The Pandemic Trade Shock

15:15-16:00: Ariel Weinberger (GWU), “Surviving Pandemics: The Role of Spillovers”
Discussant: Anne Beck (World Bank)
16:00-16:45: Dhevaki Ghose (World Bank), “Production Networks and Firm-Level Elasticities
of Substitution”
Discussant: Ritam Chauri (JHU SAIS)
16:45-17:30: Ferdinando Monte (Georgetown), “Remote Work and City Structure”
Discussant: Maurice Kugler (GMU)

17:30-18:30: Reception

Reshaping the World Bank for the 21st Century: An Agenda for the New President

Wednesday, April 26th, 2023
9-10:30 p.m EST
Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to join us on Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 to hear from a distinguished panel comprising Nancy Birdsall (Center for Global Development), Ana Palacios (Palacio y Asociados and Georgetown), and Johannes Linn (Brookings). The panel will discuss “Reshaping the World Bank for the 21st Century: An Agenda for the New President” in a session moderated by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. IIEP Director Remi Jedwab will introduce the session.

With the nomination of Ajay Banga by the US administration as the next World Bank president there is a unique opportunity to reshape the institution for the needs of the 21st century. This would include changing its strategic direction with a much greater focus on tackling climate change, as it pursues poverty eradication and shared prosperity. It must also include making its governance structure more representative of a changed global economic landscape and using its capital in more innovative ways to harness the vast sums of private capital to meet the challenges of sustainable development across the world. It must also find ways to focus more on global public goods as it helps individual countries address these challenges.

About the Speakers:

Nancy Birdsall is president emeritus and a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, a policy-oriented research institution that opened its doors in Washington, DC in October 2001. Prior to launching the Center, Birdsall served for three years as senior associate and director of the Economic Reform Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her work at Carnegie focused on issues of globalization and inequality, as well as on the reform of the international financial institutions.

From 1993 to 1998, Birdsall was executive vice-president of the Inter-American Development Bank, the largest of the regional development banks, where she oversaw a $30 billion public and private loan portfolio. Before joining the Inter-American Development Bank, she spent 14 years in research, policy, and management positions at the World Bank, including as director of the Policy Research Department.

 

Birdsall holds a PhD in economics from Yale University and an MA in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

 

Ana Palacio was the first woman to serve as Foreign Minister of Spain, from 2002-2004. Before this, she was a member of the Spanish Parliament, where she chaired the Joint Committee of the two Houses for European Affairs. She also served as a member of the European Parliament, where she chaired the Legal Affairs and Internal Market Committee, the Justice and Home Affairs Committee and the Conference of the Committee Chairs, the most senior decision-making body on legislative policy and programs. As the Head of the Spanish Delegation to the European Union’s Intergovernmental Conference and a member of the Presidium of the Convention, Ms. Palacio was at the forefront of the debate on the future of the European Union and drafted and led legal discussions on the European Treaties reform.

Ms. Palacio also served on Spain’s Consejo de Estado (Council of State), and as Senior VP and General Counsel of the World Bank Group, as well as Secretary General of the ICSID – International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes.

 

Johannes F. Linn is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Distinguished Resident Scholar at the Emerging Markets Forum in Washington, D.C., a Senior Fellow at the Results for Development Institute and a Senior Research Fellow at the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation. He is the co-founder and co-chair of the international Scaling Community of Practice, which has over 2,500 participants.

Johannes currently serves as Global Facilitator for setting up and funding the Systematic Observations Financing Facility hosted by the World Meteorological Organization. In 2019 Johannes served as Global Facilitator for the 1st Replenishment of the Green Climate Fund. In 2011, 2014 and 2017 he chaired three Replenishment Consultations of the International Fund for Agricultural Development. From 2005-2010 he was Director of the Wolfensohn Center for Development at Brookings. Before that, he worked for three decades at the World Bank, including as the Bank’s Vice President for Financial Policy and Resource Mobilization and Vice President for Europe and Central Asia.

 

About the Moderator:

Ajay Chhibber is Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP), George Washington University, Washington D.C., Senior Visiting Professor at the Indian Council for Research on India’s Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

He was the first Director General, Independent Evaluation Office, India (Minister of State) and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. He also was Chief Economic Advisor to FICCI and now serves on CII’s Economic Advisory Council. He served earlier as Assistant Secretary General, UN and Assistant Administrator, UNDP where he was responsible for work on Asia and the Pacific. At the World Bank he served in senior positions as Country Director in Turkey and Vietnam, and Division Chief for Indonesia and the Pacific as well as the Director and Lead Author of the seminal 1997 World Development Report on the Role of the State.

He has a Ph. D from Stanford University, an MA from the Delhi School of Economics and was awarded the David Rajaram Prize for best all rounder at St Stephen’s College, Delhi University where he received BA Hons in Economics. He has also done advanced management courses at Harvard University and at INSEAD, France.

 

 

Cosponsored by GW-CIBER and the Growth Dialogue

Governing Finance and Climate Change event graphic

Governing Finance and Climate Change

Thursday, April 13th, 2023
9:00-12:30 p.m EDT
In-Person

Central banks and financial supervisors are at the core of mitigating risks to the financial system. To that end, how to respond to the risks from climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy is rapidly moving up their agendas worldwide. The Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) now comprises more than 120 authorities from around the globe. Several of them have already started accounting for climate risks in monetary policy and financial supervision. Many more are exploring the next steps.

To take stock of where central banks and financial supervisors stand in addressing the risks from climate change, and discuss policy design and responses, the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at GWU, in partnership with the Council on Economic Policies (CEP), will be hosting a morning event on “Governing Finance and Climate Change.”

Registration and Coffee: 8.30 – 9.00 AM

Welcome: 9.00 – 9.15 AM

Sunil Sharma. Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU; Senior Associate, Council on Economic Policies; and former Assistant Director, IMF

Monetary Policy and Climate Change 9.15 – 10.30 AM 

Sarah Bloom Raskin. Distinguished Professor of the Practice of Law, Duke University, Partner, Kaya Advisory Ltd.; former Deputy Secretary, US Department of the Treasury, and former member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Timothy Lane. Former Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada; and former Senior Advisor, IMF

James Talbot. Director, International Directorate, Bank of England; Chair, Workstream on Monetary Policy, Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)

Break: 10.30 – 11.00 AM

Financial Supervision and Climate Change 11.00 – 12.15 PM

Sarah Dougherty. Director, Green Finance Center, Natural Resources Defense Council

Paul Hiebert. Head, Systemic Risk and Financial Institutions Division, ECB

Mark Levonian. Former Senior Deputy Comptroller of the Currency, and former Federal Reserve official

Closing Remarks: 12.15 – 12.30 PM

William White. Senior Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute, Advisor, Council on Economic Policies, former Chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee, OECD; former Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements; and former Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

Light Lunch: 12.30 – 13.30 PM

Welcoming Remarks

sunil sharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was the Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, Sunil was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

From 2012-2020, he was on the Governing Board of the Mysore Royal Academy (MYRA) School of Business, Mysore, India. During 2012-2018, he was a member of the Advisory Board, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), Singapore Management University, Singapore, and over 2011-2015, he served on the International Advisory Board, The Institute of Global Finance, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

Sunil has a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. He has published widely on economic and financial topics, and his current interests include governance, systemic hazards, complex systems, international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

 

Monetary Policy and Climate Change: Speakers and Chair

Sarah Bloom Raskin, the former deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, was named the Colin W. Brown Distinguished Professor of the Practice of Law in 2021. She is also a senior fellow in the Duke Center on Risk. Raskin was previously a visiting professor of the practice of law at Duke and a Rubenstein Fellow.

From 2014 to 2017, Raskin was the second-in-command at the Treasury Department, where she was known for her pursuit of innovative solutions to enhance Americans’ shared prosperity, the resilience of the country’s critical financial infrastructure, and the defense of consumer safeguards in the financial marketplace. Earlier, Raskin was a governor of the Federal Reserve Board and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, where she helped conduct the nation’s monetary policy and promote financial stability. She also served as commissioner of financial regulation for the State of Maryland from 2007 to 2010. She and her agency were responsible for regulating Maryland’s financial institutions during the height of the Great Recession.

Raskin, a graduate of Harvard Law School, has throughout her career worked across public and private sectors in both legal and regulatory capacities. Her work has centered on financial institutions, financial market utilities, consumer protection issues, the adaptation of financial regulatory tools as they pertain to climate risk, bolstered prudential standards, and resolution planning. Her private sector experience includes having served as managing director at the Promontory Financial Group, general counsel of the WorldWide Retail Exchange, and at the law firms of Arnold and Porter and Mayer Brown. Earlier in her career she served as banking counsel for the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

She currently is a member, with Professors Lawrence Baxter and Gina-Gail Fletcher, of the Regenerative Crisis Response Committee, a group of leading experts in law, economics, and public policy focused on the use of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies in a climate-transitioned economy.

 

Timothy Lane served as Deputy Governor from February 2009 until his retirement from the Bank of Canada in September 2022.

As a member of the Bank’s Governing Council, he shared responsibility for decisions with respect to monetary policy and financial system stability, and for setting the strategic direction of the Bank. He oversaw the Bank’s funds management and currency functions — notably including the Bank’s ongoing research and analysis of developments in financial technology, crypto-assets and digital currencies.

Mr. Lane’s responsibilities as Deputy Governor covered a series of different areas. From 2014 through July 2018, he was responsible for the Bank’s analysis of international economic developments in support of monetary policy decisions — serving as the Bank’s G7 and G20 Deputy. Previously, he was responsible for overseeing the Bank’s work on financial markets (2010–13) and its analysis of Canadian economic developments (2009–10). He joined the Bank in August 2008 as an Adviser to the Governor.

Prior to joining the Bank, he served for 20 years on the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, DC. During that period, he worked on a wide range of issues and contributed to the IMF’s work on a number of countries. He has published research on various topics including monetary policy, financial crises, IMF reform, and economic transition. During 2004–05, Mr. Lane was a Visiting Fellow at the University of Oxford. He has also served as Assistant Professor of Economics at Michigan State University (1984-88) and at the University of Iowa (1983-84).

Born in Ottawa, Mr. Lane received a BA (Honours) from Carleton University in 1977 and a PhD in economics from the University of Western Ontario in 1983.

 

James Talbot is Director of the International Department at the Bank of England. He is also the Chair of the Workstream on Monetary Policy of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). James’ other roles at the Bank of England have included: Head of Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division, advising the MPC on Monetary Policy tools, implementation and strategy; working as a senior adviser on domestic and European macroprudential policy issues; and leading the preparation of the MPC’s quarterly UK forecast. James was UK Alternate Executive Director at the IMF from September 2008- September 2010.

 

 

 

 

Alexander Barkawi is the founder and director of CEP. Prior to his decision to build up CEP, he was the managing director of SAM Indexes and thus responsible for developing the Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes (DJSI) into a key reference point for sustainability investing. Before joining SAM, Alex took the lead in internationalizing the activities of oikos – an organization that today promotes sustainability in teaching and research of economics and management at more than 40 universities worldwide. Alex is a graduate in economics (M.A.) of the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, where he also wrote his PhD thesis on “Social Change in Egypt in the 1990s”. He grew up in Germany and Egypt and today lives in Zurich, Switzerland.

 

 

 

Financial Supervision and Climate Change: Speakers

 

Sarah Dougherty focuses on financial regulations related to climate change and green banks, as well as growing finance and economics expertise within NRDC. Before joining NRDC in 2015, Dougherty worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta where she held various roles, including as a research analyst covering the energy industry, writing monetary policy briefs, and leading economic education in public affairs. She also helped to create the Green Bank Network of existing green banks, served on the Washington, D.C., Green Bank Advisory Committee to set up a city-level green bank, and worked in Chile and Mexico to support the nations’ green finance efforts. Other previous work includes positions at the Coalition for Green Capital, C2ES (a small solar EPC firm), and the Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta. Dougherty holds a master’s degree in economics and is based in Atlanta.

 

 

 

Paul Hiebert heads the Systemic Risk and Financial Institutions Division of the European Central Bank (ECB). In this role, he leads systemic risk analysis for the euro area feeding into the ECB’s flagship Financial Stability Review, as well as macroprudential policy for the largest euro area banks. Since 2019 he has been leading climate-related risk and financial stability analysis with the corresponding publication of the ECB’s and ESRB’s annual report. His current role builds on over 20 years of experience within the ECB, the International Monetary Fund, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Canadian Department of Finance in various capacities—spanning economic, financial and policy functions for a wide range of countries. He has published on a diverse set of topics, including financial cycles, global banking, climate change issues, macroprudential policy, housing markets, and fiscal policy. He holds an M.A. in Economics from McGill University in Montréal.

 

 

Mark Levonian was most recently Managing Director and Global Head for Enterprise Economics and Risk Analysis at Promontory Financial Group. He was formerly Senior Deputy Comptroller for Economics at the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), where he served as a key advisor to the Comptroller before, during, and after the global financial crisis. Mark oversaw quantitative examination support and policy research for the OCC and was closely involved in policy responses to the financial crisis, including the development of bank stress testing. As a senior regulatory official and economist, he led or participated in various Basel Committee initiatives related to economic modeling and played a leading role in the development of rules and guidance for multiple generations of the Basel capital framework. Prior to joining the OCC, Mark was Vice President for Banking Supervision and Regulation and Economic Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Manager of the Banking Studies Department at the New York Fed, Lecturer in Finance at the University of California’s Haas School of Business, and Senior Economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. He has been an adviser/consultant to the World Bank, the IMF, and the central banks of Russia and Belarus.

 

Closing Remarks

William White is currently a Senior Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto. He is also an Advisor to the Council on Economic Policies. From 2009 until March 2018, he served as Chair of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD in Paris. Prior to that, he spent fourteen years as Economic Adviser at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel. In that role, he was responsible for all BIS research, data collection, and the organization of meetings for central bankers from around the world. Before joining the BIS in 1994, he was the Deputy Governor responsible for international affairs at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa.

In addition to publishing widely, Mr. White’s other activities have included membership of the Issing Committee, advising Chancellor Merkel on G20 issues. In addition to prizes awarded in Europe, in 2016 Mr. White received in Washington, D.C., the Adam Smith Award, the highest award of the U.S. National Association of Business Economics (NABE).

GWU’s 15th Annual China Conference

Friday, April 7, 2023,
9:00 am – 4:15 pm ET
Lindner Family Commons, 1957 E St NW

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to announce the 15th Annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations will take place on Friday, April 7th, 2023 at the Elliott School of International Affairs. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER). Breakfast, lunch, and light refreshments will be provided.

Conference Agenda:

8:30-9:00 a.m. – Breakfast and Registration

9:00-9:15 a.m. – Welcome Remarks

  • IIEP Director Remi Jedwab
  • Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres

9:15-10:00 a.m. – Keynote Address – “The Study of China’s Political Economy: Our Evolving Analytical Agenda” 

  • Harry Harding (UVA, National Chengchi University, and Center for Asia Pacific Resilience and Innovation – CAPRi)

10:00-11:15 a.m. – Panel 1: The State and the Political System in China

  • Bruce Dickson (GWU)
  • Meg Rithmire (Harvard)
  • Yuhua Wang (Harvard)

11:15-11:30 a.m. – Coffee break

11:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. – Panel 2: Autocracy, Movement, and Development in Chinese History and Today

  • Yasheng Huang (MIT)
  • Suqin Ge (Virginia Tech)

12:30-1:30 p.m. – Lunch

1:30-2:45 p.m. – Panel 3: Trade War and a Race of Industrial Policy

  • Chad Bown (Peterson Institute)
  • Lee Branstetter (CMU)
  • Jennifer Hillman (Georgetown)

2:45-3:00 p.m. – Coffee break

3:00-4:15 p.m. – Panel 4: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations

  • Harry Harding (UVA, National Chengchi University, and Center for Asia Pacific Resilience and Innovation – CAPRi)
  • Michael Lampton (JHU)
  • David Shambaugh (GWU)

4:15 p.m. – Closing Remarks

 About the Keynote Speaker

Harry Harding is Yushan Scholar and University Chair Professor in the College of Social Science at National Cheng Chi University in Taiwan and University Professor Emeritus and Professor Emeritus of Public Policy at the University of Virginia, where he is also a Faculty Senior Fellow at the Miller Center of Public Affairs. He has previously held visiting or adjunct appointments at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, the University of Washington, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, the University of Sydney, the University of Hong Kong, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and National Cheng Chi University.

Harding served as the founding dean of UVA’s Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy between 2009 and 2014. Before joining the Batten School, he held faculty appointments at Swarthmore College and Stanford University, founded the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and was a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. From 1995 to 2005 he was Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, and from 2005 to 2007 was Director of Research and Analysis at Eurasia Group, a political risk advisory and consulting firm based in New York. He has served on the boards of several educational and non-profit institutions, as well as on the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Science and Technology and the U.S. Defense Policy Board.

Harding is the author of Organizing China: The Problem of Bureaucracy, 1949-1976; China’s Second Revolution: Reform After Mao; A Fragile Relationship: the United States and China Since 1972; and the chapter on the Cultural Revolution in The Cambridge History of China. He is also the editor or co-editor of China’s Foreign Relations in the 1980s; Sino-American Relations, 1945-1955: A Joint Reassessment of a Critical Decade; and The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know. He is presently writing a book on the history of the US-China relationship from the Clinton Administration to the Trump Administration, with the working title A Broken Engagement: the United States and China from Partners to Competitors.

Harding received his B.A. from Princeton and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Stanford. He is an elected member of the Cosmos Club, The Council on Foreign Relations, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Foreign Correspondents Club of Hong Kong; and the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).

The New Face of Globalization

Tuesday, April 11th, 2023
5-6:30 p.m EDT
In-Person

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to a discussion of “The New Face of Globalization” featuring speakers Richard Baldwin, Professor of International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute and Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Anabel González, Deputy Director General, World Trade Organization, Aaditya Mattoo, Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific, The World Bank, and Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Growth Dialogue Director and IIEP faculty affiliate Danny Leipziger will moderate.

There is a sense that fragmented globalization is the new normal and this involves additional elements of explicit or implicit protectionism and national trade and industrial policies in some key countries. To better understand these new developments and to gauge their importance and the possible impact on global trade and finance, join us to hear from a high-level panel of experts who will be convened to discuss these issues

About the Speakers:

Anabel González (Costa Rica) has served as WTO Deputy Director-General since June 2021. Ms. González is a renowned global expert on trade, investment and economic development with a proven managerial track record in international organizations and the public sector. In government, Ms Gonzalez served as Minister of Foreign Trade of Costa Rica; Special Ambassador and Chief Negotiator; Vice-Minister of Trade and Director-General for Trade Negotiations. She also worked as Director-General of the Costa Rican Investment Promotion Agency (CINDE). Ms González also served at the World Bank as Senior Director of the Global Practice on Trade and Competitiveness, the WTO as Director of the Agriculture and Commodities Division and as Senior Consultant with the Inter-American Development Bank. More recently, Ms González has worked as a Non-Resident Senior Fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where she hosted the virtual series Trade Winds, and as Senior Advisor to the Boston Consulting Group. Ms González obtained her master’s degree from Georgetown University Law Center with the highest academic distinction and has published extensively and lectured across the world on trade, investment and economic development.

 

 

Aaditya Mattoo is Chief Economist of the East Asia and Pacific Region of the World Bank.  He specializes in development, trade and international cooperation, and provides policy advice to governments.  He is also Co-Director of the World Development Report 2020 on Global Value Chains.  Prior to this he was the Research Manager, Trade and Integration, at the World Bank. Before he joined the Bank, Mr. Mattoo was Economic Counsellor at the World Trade Organization and taught economics at the University of Sussex and Churchill College, Cambridge University. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Cambridge, and an M.Phil in Economics from the University of Oxford. He has published on development, trade, trade in services, and international trade agreements in academic and other journals and his work has been cited in the Economist, Financial Times, New York Times, and Time Magazine.

 

 

Richard Baldwin is Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva since 1991, and Editor-in-Chief of Vox since he founded it in June 2007. He was President/Director of CEPR (2014-2018), and a visiting professor at Oxford (2012-2015), and MIT (2003). In terms of government service, he was a Senior Staff Economist for the President’s Council of Economic Advisors in the Bush Administration (1990-1991) on leave from Columbia University Business School where he was Associate Professor. He did his PhD in Economics at MIT with Paul Krugman with whom he has co-authored several articles. He advises governments and international organisation around the world, and is the author of numerous books and articles on international trade, globalisation, regionalism, and European integration. His 2016 book, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalisation, was listed by Lawrence Summers as one of the five most important books on globalisation ever. His latest book, The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work, was published in February 2019.

He wrote his PhD at MIT under the guidance of Paul Krugman, with whom he has co-author a half dozen articles. His MSc in economics is from LSE, his BA in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and he has honorary doctorates from the Turku School of Economics and Business in Finland (2005), the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland (2012), and the Pontifica Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP), in Peru (2014).

He is a member of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Stewardship Board on Trade and Investment Issues from 2016, having been a member of the WEF Global Agenda Council on Trade from 2009 to 2015. He was Vice Chair of the Academic Advisory Committee of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington (2008 – 2012), and an Elected Member on the Council of the European Economic Association, (1999-2004, 2006-2011).

 

About the Moderator:

Picture of Danny LeipzigerDr. Danny Leipziger is a Professor of International Business and International Affairs at the George Washington University and Director of the Growth Dialogue. He is a faculty affiliate of the Institute for International Economic Policy. Prior to joining GW, Prof. Leipziger was Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management at the World Bank (2004-2009). Dr. Leipziger held senior management positions in East Asia and Latin America Regions. He was the World Bank’s Director for Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure for Latin America (1998-2004). He served previously in the U.S. Department of State and was a Member of the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff. Dr. Leipziger was Vice Chair of the Spence Commission on Growth and Development, and he served on the WEF Council on Economic Progress.

An economist with a Ph. D. from Brown University, he has published widely in development economics, finance and banking, and on East Asia and Latin America. He is the author of several books, including Lessons of East Asia (U. of Michigan Press), Stuck in the Middle (Brookings Institution), and Globalization and Growth, and more than 50 refereed and published articles in journals and other outlets.

 

Cosponsored by GW-CIBER and the Growth Dialogue

Thriving – Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate

Thursday, March 30, 2023
12:00 pm – 1:35 pm ET
In person and via Zoom

Globally, 70 percent of greenhouse gas emissions emanate from cities. At the same time, cities are being hit increasingly by climate change related shocks and stresses, ranging from more frequent extreme weather events to inflows of climate migrants. This report analyzes how these shocks and stresses are interacting with other urban stresses to determine the greenness, resilience, and inclusiveness of urban and national development. It provides policymakers with a compass for designing tailored policies that can help cities and countries take effective action to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

This discussion, organized by the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at GWU in partnership with the World Bank IBRD-IDA, will review the World Bank’s recent flagship report on climate change, titled “Thriving – Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate“.

Please note that those who register to attend in person are strongly encouraged to attend as lunch will be ordered for the specific number of registrants. Buffet lunch and coffee provided with the support of two University Seminar Series:
– The Global Socio-Economic Costs of Climate Change and Unsustainable Urbanization
– Urban Governance, Multidisciplinary Collaboration, and Climate Change

Agenda

12.00-12.15 – Introductions. Chair: Remi Jedwab (GWU), Director of IIEP, Economics & International Affairs

12.05-12.15 – Mini-presentation by students from GWU’s Geography Department: Chair: David Rain (GWU) Climate Change and Sustainable Cities – The Example of Washington DC

12.15-1.05 – Main Presentation. Chair: Tanner Regan (GWU), Assistant Professor, Economics and International Affairs

Presented by Esha D. Zaveri (World Bank) – Senior Economist with the World Bank’s Water Global Practice. Presentation of the World Bank’s Flagship Report on Climate Change & Cities: Thriving – Making Cities Green, Resilient and Inclusive in a Changing Climate (no interruptions)

World Bank speakers participating online: Nancy Lozano-Garcia (Lead Urban Economist), Mark Roberts  (Lead Urban Economist) and Megha Mukim (Senior Economist, Team Lead for Competitive Cities)

12.40-12.50 – 10 mins Discussion by Ryan Engstrom (GWU), Professor, Geography & Director of Data Science

12.50-1.05 – 15 mins Discussion and Q&A

1.10-1.35 – Discussion. Chairs: Malcolm Russell-Einhorn (ESIA) and Chas Cadwell (Urban Institute) Toward a Meaningful Interdisciplinary Urban Climate Assessment Framework: Selecting, Using, and Communicating Relevant, Contextualized Urban Climate Indicators and Scenarios

About the Speaker

Picture of Esha ZaveriEsha Zaveri is a Senior Economist with the World Bank’s Water Global Practice with professional interests in water resource management, climate impacts, environmental health, and the use of geospatial data with statistical analysis to study interactions between the environment, and social and economic systems. She has published on these topics in leading scientific journals and has authored flagship reports of the World Bank on water scarcity (Uncharted Waters, 2017), water pollution (Quality Unknown, 2019), and migration (Ebb and Flow, 2021). Prior to joining the World Bank, she was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment where she remains an affiliated scholar. She holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Economics and Demography from Pennsylvania State University.

Wenger Family Lecture on International Business and Finance: The Global Economy Post-Brexit: UK and US Perspectives

Thursday, March 23rd, 2023
Reception 5:00 – 5:30 ET
Lecture 5:30-6:30 pm ET
City View Room, Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, 7th Floor

We were pleased to invite you to join us on March 23rd, 2023 from 5:00 pm to 6:30 pm EST for a conversation with Carl Richardson, MA ’99, and Sarah Hirsch, BA ’10, as part of the Wenger Family Lecture series on International Business and Finance. This lecture discussed “The Global Economy Post-Brexit: UK and US Perspectives.” IIEP Director Remi Jedwab will serve as the moderator. The event began with a reception from 5:00 – 5:30 pm, followed by the discussion from 5:30 – 6:30 pm.

This event was presented by the Elliott School Office of Development and Alumni Relations and underwritten by the Henry E. & Consuelo S. Wenger Foundation. It is co-sponsored by the Institute for International Economic Policy.

About the Speakers

Picture of Carl RichardsonCarl A. Richardson, ESIA MA ’99, leads the Richardson family business, alongside his brothers. Richardson is a multi-generational independent family-run trading and investment business which has a real estate and growth capital portfolio that is embedded across the world. Current growth capital investments include an award- winning Swiss technology company, a UK financial services business, the fastest growing automated carwash business in the US, and the largest avocado grower in New Zealand. Real estate holdings are significant in scale and content, encompassing office, residential, distribution centres, leisure and infrastructure properties both nationally and internationally.

Carl is a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and a Trustee of the Richardson Brothers’ Foundation. He previously served as an International Officer at HSBC in London, UAE, and Hong Kong, and has also served as an Honorary Captain in the Royal Navy Reserve. He is a member of the Executive Circle of the Elliott School’s Institute for International Economic Policy and previously was a member of the school’s International Council advisory group.

Picture of Sarah HirschSarah Hirsch, ESIA BA ’10, is an economic and financial policy expert and former diplomat. She is currently Vice President of Global Corporate and Investment Banking at Bank of America. Since 2010, Sarah has advised senior public and private sector officials, including heads of state. Her areas of expertise include international economic policy, economic development, capital markets, and monetary policy.

From 2012-19, Sarah served at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, most recently as senior advisor to the Under Secretary for Domestic Finance. As Acting U.S. Executive Director at the African Development Bank in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, she facilitated the approval of $12 billion in development finance to countries throughout Africa and established partnerships between the Bank and U.S. government, including the Obama Administration’s Power Africa Initiative, Global Connect Initiative, and the Partnership on Illicit Finance. For her service, Sarah was awarded the Treasury Secretary’s Exceptional Service Award. She is a member of the Executive Circle of the Elliott School’s Institute for International Economic Policy.

About the Moderator

Picture of Remi JedwabRemi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University, the Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy and the Director of the ESIA Initiative on Climate Change and Sustainable Cities at George Washington University, and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are urban and real estate economics, development and growth, environmental economics, and labor economics. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, urban construction and climate change, the economic determinants and effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital, and technology in development and growth. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium.

Capitalism, Democracy, and Governance

Tuesday, April 4th, 2023
11 am -12:30 EDT
via Zoom

Martin Wolf (Financial Times) and Joe Zammit-Lucia (RADIX) will be the speakers for this event. Ann Florini (New America) will provide discussant remarks. This webinar will be moderated by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma.

What will the next evolution of capitalism look like? How will globalized finance and an economic system that concentrates wealth and knows few borders be compatible with functioning polities that are geographically bound? What are the implications for public policy and for business activity?
While the post-war era was characterized by increasing prosperity and a rising middle class, today we are seeing a steady erosion of the social contract that has sustained our politics and economics and provided a reasonable degree of social stability. Previous assumptions about economic structures and the role of business in society have become contested leading to political turmoil, increasing polarization, a rise in authoritarianism, and fraying democratic norms. We have returned to a focus on the ‘political economy’ recognizing that economic issues are fundamentally political in nature. That business and financial activity has significant political implications. This event will explore these issues and the routes available for that which has always characterized capitalism in democracies – its ability to adapt and self-correct.

About the Speakers:

Martin Wolf is Associate Editor and Chief Economics correspondent at the Financial Times. Prior to that he was a senior economist at the World Bank and Director of Studies at the Trade Policy Research Centre, in London. Larry Summers described him as “the world’s preeminent financial journalist,” while economist Kenneth Rogoff has said “He really is the premier financial and economics writer in the world.” Wolf was joint winner of the Wincott Foundation senior prize for excellence in financial journalism in both 1989 and 1997. He won the RTZ David Watt memorial prize in 1994. In 2000. Wolf was awarded the CBE (Commander of the Order of the British Empire). He was awarded the honorary degree of Doctor of Letters, honoris causa, by the University of Nottingham in 2006, and was made Doctor of Science (Economics) of University of London, honoris causa, by the London School of Economics in the same year. In 2018, on the occasion of the KU Leuven Patron Saint‘s Day he received a doctorate honoris causa of the university. In 2019, Wolf received the Gerald Loeb Lifetime Achievement Award from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

His latest book is “The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism” (Penguin Books, 2023). Previous books include “The Shifts and the Shocks,” “Why Globalisation Works,” and “Fixing Global Finance.”

Joe Zammit-LuciaJoe Zammit-Lucia With extensive experience in the business and political worlds, Dr Joe Zammit-Lucia is an adviser to business leaders focused on leadership in contemporary socio-political culture, an author, public speaker and commentator in the international press on the inter-relationship between business and politics.

His latest book is “The New Political Capitalism: How businesses and societies can thrive in a deeply politicized world” (Bloomsbury Business, 2022). Previous books have included “The Death of Liberal Democracy?” and “Backlash: Saving Globalization From Itself.”

He is a founder of RADIX – a not-for-profit public policy think tank, and the RADIX Centre for Business, Politics & Society. His executive experience spanned R&D, marketing, global brand management, strategic planning, general management, industry economics and public policy. He founded his own management consulting firm with offices in Cambridge (UK), New York and Tokyo.

He is on the Advisory Board of the Singapore Forum for long-term investors and business leaders and an External Advisory Board Member at CEO World Magazine. He served as Special Advisor to the Director General at the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and on the Dean’s Advisory Board at the College of Arts, Sciences and Education, Florida International University.

He has lived and worked in the UK, USA, France, Spain, Germany, The Netherlands and Malta.

About the Discussant:

Ann Florini is a Fellow in the Political Reform Program at New America, working on how innovative governance tools can help to address the intertwined challenges of climate change and democratic decay. She is also Senior Advisor to NatureFinance and the Task Force on Nature Markets;  a Senior Global Futures Scientist at the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Lab, Arizona State University; a Professor of Practice at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University; a founding Board Member of the Economics of Mutuality Foundation; and a Founding Member of the Council on Economic Policies.

Her work focuses on governance of complex systems, energy policy, and cross-sector collaborations involving business, government, and civil society. Throughout her career, Dr. Florini has spearheaded major international projects focused on innovative approaches to global problem-solving for such organizations as the Initiative for Policy Dialogue and the World Economic Forum.

Dr. Florini previously taught at the National University of Singapore, where she founded and led the Centre on Asia and Globalisation; and at Singapore Management University, where she created and ran the unique Masters of TriSector Collaboration. She has held senior appointments at research institutes such as the Brookings Institution and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Her numerous books and articles have addressed innovations in governance, China’s governance, transparency and information flows in governance, the roles of civil society and the private sector in addressing public problems, and climate and energy policy.

Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and a Master’s in Public Affairs from the School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.

About the Moderator:

Sunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, Sunil was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

From 2012-2020, he was on the Governing Board of the Mysore Royal Academy (MYRA) School of Business, Mysore, India. During 2012-2018, he was a member of the Advisory Board, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), Singapore Management University, Singapore, and over 2011-2015, he served on the International Advisory Board, Institute of Global Finance, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

Sunil has a Ph.D. and a M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. He has published widely on economic and financial topics, and his current interests include governance, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Ashoka Mody on “India Is Broken: A People Betrayed, Independence to Today”

Thursday, March 2nd, 2023
9:00 am EST, 7:30 pm IST
via Zoom

We are pleased to invite you to a joint virtual event with the Sigur Center for Asian Studies. This event will feature panelist remarks from Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Robertson Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Sadanand Dhume, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Dr. Jaimini Bhagwati, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), will provide discussant remarks.

Ashoka Mody is Charles and Marie Robertson Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments. He has also worked at the World Bank, University of Pennsylvania, and AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. Mody has advised governments worldwide on developmental and financial projects and policies, while writing extensively for policy and scholarly audiences.

India Is Broken: A People Betrayed, Independence to Today is a provocative new account of how India moved relentlessly from its hope-filled founding in 1947 to the dramatic economic and democratic breakdowns of today.

When Indian leaders first took control of their government in 1947, they proclaimed the ideals of national unity and secular democracy. Through the first half-century of nation-building, leaders could point to uneven but measurable progress on key goals, and after the mid-1980s, dire poverty declined for a few decades, inspiring declarations of victory. But today, a vast majority of Indians live in a state of underemployment and are one crisis away from despair. Public goods—health, education, cities, air and water, and the judiciary—are in woeful condition. And good jobs will remain scarce as long as that is the case. The lack of jobs will further undermine democracy, which will further undermine job creation. India is Broken provides the most persuasive account available of this economic catch-22.

Challenging prevailing narratives, Mody contends that successive post-independence leaders, starting with its first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, failed to confront India’s true economic problems, seeking easy solutions instead. As popular frustration grew, and corruption in politics became pervasive, India’s economic growth relied increasingly on unregulated finance and environmentally destructive construction. The rise of a violent Hindutva has buried all prior norms in civic life and public accountability.

Combining statistical data with creative media, such as literature and cinema, to create strong, accessible, people-driven narratives, this book is a meditation on the interplay between democracy and economic progress, with lessons extending far beyond India. Mody proposes a path forward that is fraught with its own peril, but which nevertheless offers something resembling hope.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Remi Jedwab, Associate Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Jaimini BhagwatiJaimini Bhagwati is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), Chairman of the Infrastructure Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) Asset Management Trustee Company, and Board member of IDFC Limited. Amb. Bhagwati was India’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom and India’s Ambassador to the European Union, Belgium, and Luxembourg. He has held senior positions in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Department of Atomic Energy and the World Bank Treasury. His responsibilities at the World Bank included bond funding including execution of over-the-counter derivatives transactions. Between 2013-2018 Amb. Bhagwati was the Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor at ICRIER. Amb. Bhagwati was educated at St. Stephen’s College, New Delhi, Tufts University, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA.

Picture of Sadanand DhumeSadanand Dhume (Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute) is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he writes on South Asian political economy, foreign policy, business, and society, with a focus on India and Pakistan. Mr. Dhume has served as India bureau chief of the Far Eastern Economic Review and as Indonesia correspondent of FEER and the Wall Street Journal – Asia, and is currently a South Asia columnist for the Wall Street Journal. Previously, he was Bernard Schwartz Fellow at the Asia Society in Washington, D.C. He has written articles and op-eds for Foreign Policy, Forbes, Commentary, YaleGlobal, the Washington Post, and other publications. His television appearances include CNN, PBS, BBC World, Al Jazeera International, CNBC Asia and ABC Television. His political travelogue about the rise of radical Islam in Indonesia, My Friend the Fanatic: Travels with a Radical Islamist, has been published in four countries. His upcoming book discusses the rise of a new right in India and its impact on Indian democracy.

Multidimensional Poverty Dynamics in Indonesia in the time of COVID-19: Lessons Learned and Policy Implications

March 8th, Wednesday 2023
via Zoom and in person

It has long been recognised that poverty encompasses multiple aspects of wellbeing,thus, to truly measure it, a multidimensional tool is needed. This need has become further apparent as the impacts of COVID-19 continue to unfold and disrupt different areas of life, which include, among others, challenges in health, access to learning and the learning gap, alongside significant reductions in standards of living. This paper aims to examine multidimensional poverty trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, utilising a measure that is based on the Alkire-Foster (AF) method. To build this measure, data on household indicators available within the 2019, 2020 and 2021 Susenas waves, will be used. By utilising household information before and during the pandemic, this paper will analyse whether COVID-19 has led to significant increases in multidimensional poverty and to the emergence of the “new poor”. This paper also seeks to present an analysis of differences before and after the pandemic, with regard to the determinants of multidimensional poverty, thus pin-pointing household characteristics, which contribute the most to the experience of poverty. Finally, the findings of this paper aim to act as a robust evidence-base to guide the implementation of poverty alleviation policies in Indonesia during the pandemic.

 

Speaker:

Putu Natih supports the OPHI Outreach team and is also a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (FEB UI), where she teaches Econometrics for undergraduate and postgraduate students. Putu is also currently supporting Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Human Development and Culture, as a social protection specialist. Before OPHI and FEB UI, Putu was a Statistics Tutor at Keble and St John’s Colleges at the University of Oxford. She also worked as a Research Assistant at the Blavatnik School of Government within a project on digital inequality. Putu completed her undergraduate degree at the Faculty of Economics, Universitas Indonesia and was a Jardine-Oxford Scholar at Trinity College, the University of Oxford, where she studied for her MPhil and DPhil.

 

Discussant:

Dr Elan Satriawan is an Economist with significant experience in both academic and policy making areas. In academics, he has done extensive research covering topics in development microeconomics areas particularly in impact evaluation and effectiveness of anti-poverty and social programs, poverty related issues including health, education and inter-linkages between the two involving frontiers empirical techniques including randomised experiments. In policy areas, he leads a high-profile government policy think tank to advise the Vice President in taking strategic policy decisions on poverty alleviation and social development. He has extensive knowledge in conducting monitoring and evaluation as well as using the knowledge generated from the research for policy advocacy, capacity building and knowledge management

 

 

Nigeria National Multidimensional Poverty Index

February 1st, Wednesday 2023

Zoom and In-Person

 

Speaker:

Sola Afolayan works at The Presidency, and is the National Coordinator of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) project, in Nigeria. The MPI; a poverty measurement and policy tool, is an intervention under the Nigerian Government’s National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy (NPRGS), which is used in complement with monetary poverty measurement, to understand the country’s poverty dynamics.In the last 22 years, Sola has led teams and held leadership positions across 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. At these roles, she sought to shape policy discourses in poverty reduction, social protection, budget performance, infrastructure financing, rural electrification, gender related issues, and in deploying public-private partnerships to address conflicts in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.She describes her career highlight as the recent launch of the Nigeria MPI report by the President of Nigeria, and also in 2015 when she helped set up the framework for a GBP 37 Million programme, where 186kWp solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems each were installed at 11 Clinics and 172 public schools in rural and per-urban areas of Lagos State; resulting in positive health and education outcomes, with over 140,000 homes being solar powered.

 

Multidimensional Poverty in Europe. A Longitudinal Perspective

February 22th, Wednesday 2023
Zoom and In-Person

Most analyses of multidimensional poverty use cross-sectional data. Consequently very little is known about multidimensional poverty dynamics at the micro-level. This paper uses panel data of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for 19 countries over 2016–2020 to analyse a multidimensional poverty index broadly consistent with previous work using the same data. Technically, I build on previous research proposing analyses of transitions in multidimensional poverty and its deprivations to illuminate processes which result in deprivations to accumulate. Specifically, I test whether (multidimensional) poor people are (i) more likely to enter a new deprivation and (ii) less likely to leave an already experienced deprivation than comparable non-poor. I show that both hypotheses can be explored in a single model per deprivation and argue that estimating a linear model is sufficient for this purpose. I suggest and illustrate that differences or ratios of the respective conditional probabilities may be computed on an annual basis. The presented evidence lends support to both hypotheses, although I also find cross-country heterogeneity. The proposed analysis is applicable to rotating and short-run panels and is not limited to the analysis of multidimensional poverty. Moreover, routinely computations of the proposed measures may provide timely information for policy makers.

Speaker:

Nicolai Suppa is a Research Associate at OPHI and a Juan de la Cierva Research Fellow at the Centre for Demographic Studies in Barcelona. At OPHI, he works on several research projects. Since 2018, he also co-leads the estimation of the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI), together with Usha Kanagaratnam and Sabina Alkire.

 

Cumulative deprivations in the labour market

February 15th, Wednesday 2023
Zoom and In-Person

As the topic of job quality is garnering more attention in both the academic and policy making literature, calls for standardised measures of the concept are gaining increasing traction. However, prevailing measures based on dashboards of complex lists of indicators are difficult to interpret, especially across countries. More recently, the World Bank has published a working paper on “Global Job Quality” that measures multidimensional deprivations across 40 developing countries and is based on a methodology developed by Sehnbruch et al. (2020) and the Alkire/Foster method (2011). Initial studies suggest that the results from existing cross country, time series and dynamic studies are robust and very relevant to policy making. In particular, traditional ways of viewing the labour market in terms of formal (good jobs) versus informal (bad jobs) are outdated as modern hiring and employment practices as well as a shift towards the gig economy have eroded the stability and security of employment. As a result, this makes it difficult for developing countries to establish or sustain social insurance systems.

In advanced economies, employment practices that erode the conditions associated with traditional employment relationships are likely to have a similar impact on the sustainability of existing welfare states, as governments increasingly have to provide workers with additional income support as well as with other services that cover the cost of the multiple negative externalities associated with poor job quality (such as a higher likelihood of suffering from mental and physical health problems). A first step towards measuring these outcomes is therefore to establish a measure of cumulative deprivations in the labour market in the context of advanced economies.

This paper therefore presents the first multidimensional index of cumulative employment deprivations in Europe using data from the European Working Conditions Survey. Using the Alkire/Foster method, variables relevant to the employment relationship are grouped into three dimensions (income, job security and working conditions). Results confirm findings found across developing countries where job quality deprivations are not necessarily related to GDP per capita levels or employment rates. Instead, the regulatory environment of a particular country is the most important determinant of outcomes.

 

Speakers:

Kirsten Sehnbruch is a Global Professor of the British Academy and a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the International Inequalities Institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Previously, she was a Research Fellow at the Universidad de Chile, and a Senior Lecturer at the University of California, at Berkeley.

During 2019, Kirsten was awarded a British Academy Professorship to study the conceptualization and the measurement of the quality of employment in developing countries from the perspective of the capability approach. Her work informs social, labour and development policy more broadly as it allows for resources to be targeted at the most vulnerable workers in a labour market. She has collaborated with governments, international development institutions and NGOs in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East. Her work has been published by multiple journals such as World Development, The Cambridge Journal of Economics, Development and Change, Regional Studies and Social Indicators Review.

Prior to becoming an academic, Kirsten worked as an equity analyst at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, London. She received her MA, MPhil and PhD from the University of Cambridge.

Mauricio Apablaza is director of research at the School of Government at the Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile, research associate of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at Oxford University and Visiting Fellow at the International Inequalities Institute at London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Mauricio is also the director of the programme Conocimiento e Investigación en Personas Mayores (CIPEM) and president of the Chilean Commission for Quality of Employment and former member of the Chilean commission of experts on informal labour. Previously, he worked as Research Officer and Outreach Coordinator at OPHI, at the University of Oxford. Mauricio holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Nottingham and a postdoc at the University of Oxford. His research areas and publications focus on institutions, multidimensionality, and poverty dynamics.

Discussant:

Josefin Pasanen works as a Research & Partnerships Specialist at the UNDP Human Development Report Office (HDRO). Prior to joining HDRO, she was head of Capacity Building at the Latin America & Caribbean Office of Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL LAC), where she led a team that supported government, NGO, and private sector partners across the region to develop capacities for evidence-based policymaking, research, monitoring and evaluation. She is a development economist by training and holds an MSc In Local Economic Development from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and a BSc in Economics and Political Science from Uppsala University. Josefin’s previous experience also includes research at the Swedish Agency for Public Management and the Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy, and policy advisory for the Mayor ́s office at the City of Stockholm.

 

 

 

 

 

Optimised Multidimensional Poverty Reduction. A Model Based on Policy-Makers Capabilities

February 8th, Wednesday 2023
Zoom and In-Person

This study supports national planners at determining the types and magnitudes of interventions, and the specific population groups that should be targeted to achieve a desired reduction in the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) efficiently. In the post COVID era, survey data and MPI methods aim to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on multidimensional poverty. This study proposes models guiding policymakers on the path to recovery from COVID-19 (or any other emerging crisis) and toward meeting the 2030 Agenda Goals, thus ensuring efficient policy action and efficient resource allocation.

 

Speakers:

Vladimir Hlasny, economic affairs officer with UN-ESCWA (Beirut), Poverty and inequality research team. Previously an associate professor of Economics at Ewha Womans University (Seoul). His work is on labor market conditions and the distribution of economic outcomes in Asia and the Middle East. His research has been published in general-interest journals including the World Bank Economic Review, Review of Income and Wealth, Journal of Regulatory Economics, Development and Change, and Social Science Quarterly. PhD in Economics from Michigan State University.

 

Hassan Hamie, economist with UN-ESCWA (Beirut), Poverty and inequality research team. Previously worked as an engineer for the Lebanese Petroleum Administration. Currently working on the topics of poverty, Inequality and inclusive development. PhD in Energy Economics from Technical University of Vienna.

 

 

 

Discussant:

Paul Makdissi is a professor at the Department of Economics of the University of Ottawa. He is currently an Associate Editor of the Journal of Economic Inequality. Previously he has held positions at the Université de Sherbrooke (Canada) and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (The Netherlands). His main areas of research are socioeconomic health inequality measurement, the distributive impact of taxation and public pricing, and income inequality measurement. He was the president of the Société canadienne de science économique (the French Canadian economics association) for the 2021-2022 academic year. From 2017 to 2019, he was the thematic leader for the Equity and Inclusive Growth research theme for the Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey. He has also been a consultant for many federal and provincial ministries and agencies in Canada, the World Bank, and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.

 

 

Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise

Friday, December 9th, 2022,
10:30 am – 12:00 pm EST
Zoom

This event will feature the chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego, Susan Shirk, to discuss her new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.

For decades, China’s rise to power was characterized by its reassurance that this rise would be peaceful. Then, as Susan L. Shirk, shows in this sobering, clear-eyed account of China today, something changed.

For three decades after Mao’s death in 1976, China’s leaders adopted a restrained approach to foreign policy. They determined that any threat to their power, and that of the Chinese Communist Party, came not from abroad but from within—a conclusion cemented by the 1989 Tiananmen crisis. To facilitate the country’s inexorable economic ascendence, and to prevent a backlash, they reassured the outside world of China’s peaceful intentions.

Then, as Susan Shirk shows in this illuminating, disturbing, and utterly persuasive new book, something changed. China went from fragile superpower to global heavyweight, threatening Taiwan as well as its neighbors in the South China Sea, tightening its grip on Hong Kong, and openly challenging the United States for preeminence not just economically and technologically but militarily. China began to overreach. Combining her decades of research and experience, Shirk, one of the world’s most respected experts on Chinese politics, argues that we are now fully embroiled in a new cold war.

To explain what happened, Shirk pries open the “black box” of China’s political system and looks at what derailed its peaceful rise. As she shows, the shift toward confrontation began in the mid-2000s under the mild-mannered Hu Jintao, first among equals in a collective leadership. As China’s economy boomed, especially after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, Hu and the other leaders lost restraint, abetting aggression toward the outside world and unchecked domestic social control. When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he capitalized on widespread official corruption and open splits in the leadership to make the case for more concentrated power at the top. In the decade following, and to the present day—the eve of the 20th CCP Congress when he intends to claim a third term—he has accumulated greater power than any leader since Mao. Those who implement Xi’s directives compete to outdo one another, provoking an even greater global backlash and stoking jingoism within China on a scale not seen since the Cultural Revolution.

Here is a devastatingly lucid portrait of China today. Shirk’s extensive interviews and meticulous analysis reveal the dynamics driving overreach. To counter it, she argues, the worst mistake the rest of the world, and the United States in particular, can make is to overreact. Understanding the domestic roots of China’s actions will enable us to avoid the mistakes that could lead to war.

Speaker:

Susan Shirk is a research professor and chair of the 21st Century China Center. She is one of the most influential experts working on U.S.-China relations and Chinese politics. She is also director emeritus of the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC).

Susan Shirk first visited China in 1971 and has been teaching, researching and engaging China diplomatically ever since. From 1997-2000, Dr. Shirk served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, with responsibility for China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mongolia.

Dr. Huang has testified before U.S. congressional committees many times and regularly is consulted by major media outlets, the private sector, and governmental and nongovernmental organizations on global health issues and China. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, and a board member of the Institute of Global Health (Georgia). In 2012, InsideJersey listed him as one of the “20 Brainiest People in New Jersey.” He previously was a research associate at the National Asia Research Program, a public intellectuals fellow at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, an associate fellow at the Asia Society, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore, and a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He has taught at Barnard College and Columbia University. He obtained his BA and MA from Fudan University and his PhD from the University of Chicago.

Inclusive Absolute Well-Being Changes. An Application with Multidimensional Cross-Country Analysis

Monday, 21st November, 2022

Zoom and In-Person

The world has continued to witness prosperity in terms of poverty reduction and well-being improvement, but one cannot overstate the importance of examining whether the improvement is evenly shared or is being inclusive to all. In this paper, we propose a general quartile-based approach based on absolute changes that allow assessing and robustly examining inclusiveness of well-being for non-monetary indicators that are bounded in nature and can have both attainment and shortfall representations. Our empirical analysis of inclusiveness uses a multidimensional measure of well-being that is closely linked to the flagship global multidimensional poverty index and examines inclusiveness of well-being changes for 80 developing countries covering six different geographic regions. We observe robust improvements in well-being for most countries in our study, but only around three-fifth of all countries show robust inclusiveness. Further geographical analyses show that the same figure is less than one-third for the sub-Saharan African region. Our proposed framework could play an important role in jointly meeting the SDG targets of reducing inequality within countries and reducing poverty in multiple dimensions.

 

Speaker:

Suman Seth is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Leeds University Business School and an honorary Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI). He had previously been a Research Officer and a Senior Research Officer at OPHI between 2010 and 2015. He is primarily interested in Development Economics with a particular emphasis on measurement methodologies and policy-oriented applications. Previously, he has served as consultants to the Regional Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), to the Development Research Groups at the World Bank, and to the Asian Development Bank. He has co-authored a book on income poverty measurement with the World Bank and a book on multidimensional poverty with OPHI colleagues.

Measuring Multidimensional Poverty. A Global Assessment of Data Availability and Data Gaps

Monday, November 7th, 2022

Timely and disaggregated data are essential for effective policy-making, and achieving the ambitious goals outlined in Agenda 2030. To this date, over 30 countries launched national Multidimensional Poverty Indices (MPIs) to monitor SDG 1.2.2 and eradicate poverty in all its forms. In addition, figures on acute multidimensional poverty in over 100 developing countries are published regularly using the internationally comparable global Multidimensional Poverty Index. But there is a need to measure less acute forms of poverty, as well as to cover high income countries.

 

While advancements have been made on using administrative or census data for measuring multidimensional poverty, most national MPIs and the global MPI relies on household survey data for a comprehensive and timely assessment of poverty, and its changes over time. This presentation reviews the current data landscape with a focus on national and cross-national multi-topic household surveys that might be used to develop a genuinely global multidimensional index covering less acute forms of poverty.  It presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the available resources and identifies important gaps in existing survey data. In addition, the presentation assess the feasibility of a new global moderate multidimensional poverty index with expanded indicator coverage and the inclusion of developed countries, while retaining frequent updates and sub-national dis-aggregation. The presentation proposes multiple options for a global ‘moderate MPI’ and evaluates each according to a set of common criteria. It also proposes a set of measures that could be developed exclusively for high-income countries. Last, the presentation will propose a set of recommendations for improving the availability and coverage of nationally representative household survey data – an essential resource for measuring poverty in all its dimensions, and achieving the overall goal of no poverty.

Speaker:

 Fanni Kovesdi (Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, Department of International Development, University of Oxford)

Since joining the OPHI in 2018, she has worked on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index and Changes over Time projects, harmonizing global MPI data to analyze trends in poverty for 80 countries. Prior to joining OPHI, she worked on an ESRC-funded research project on dual career couple trajectories and has completed internships at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Child Hub for Southeast Europe. Kovesdi received her Bachelors of Science in Politics and Sociology from the University of Bristol and her Masters of Science in Sociology from the University of Oxford. Her primary research interests are inequality, poverty, wellbeing, social identities, and migration.

 

Discussant:

Dean Jolliffe (Lead Economist in the Development Data Group, World Bank)

A Lead Economist at the World Bank and was previously co-director of the 2021 World Development Report on Data for Better Lives. He’s a member of the Global Poverty & Inequality team and the Living Standards and Measurement Study team. Dean currently holds appointments at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, the Institute for the Study of Labor, and the Global Labor Organization. He received his PhD in Economics from Princeton University.

 

About The series:

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as race, ethnicity, gender, and caste, the statistical capacity of nations, social protection, the use of geospatial mapping in tracking poverty, poverty and refugees, and evaluating whether we’re on track to meet UN SDG Goal #1. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 11 a.m. ET. They are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

 

The CCP 20th Party Congress and China’s Road Ahead

Friday, 4th November, 2022

In Person Only

Critical questions about China’s future have swirled around the CCP’s 20th Party Congress: What will Xi Jinping’s third term mean for Chinese domestic politics? What are China’s intentions for Taiwan? How will the party manage slowing economic growth along with mounting demographic and environmental problems? The Sigur Center for Asian Studies will host a half-day congress where leading experts from GW’s distinguished China faculty and top scholars from other institutions seek to address these questions. The event was in person only and open to the general public. Brief presentations were followed by extended opportunities for Q&A with the audience.

 

Introductory Remarks: 12:30-12:45 PM

Gregg Brazinsky, Director Sigur Center for Asian Studies

 

Domestic Politics: 12:45-2:15 PM

Moderator: Gregg Brazinsky (GWU)

Panelists: Bruce Dickson (GWU), Iza Ding (University of Pittsburgh), Jeff Ding (GWU)

 

International Relations: 2:30-4:00 PM

Moderator: Deepa Ollapally (GWU)

Panelists: David Shambaugh (GWU), Patricia Kim (Brookings Institution), Robert Sutter (GWU)

 

Economic Policy: 4:15-5:45 PM

Moderator: Steven Suranovic (GWU)

Panelists: Maggie Chen (GWU), David Dollar (Brookings Institution), Stephen Kaplan (GWU)

The End of Growth and the Return of Ideology: Economics, Sustainability, and Technology in Xi Jinping’s China

Friday, 4th November, 2022

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the first event in the 15th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

This inaugural event featured the Director of China Programs and Strategic Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania, Scott M. Moore, to discuss The End of Growth and the Return of Ideology: Economics, Sustainability, and Technology in Xi Jinping’s China. John Helveston (GWU) provided discussant remarks, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Barbara Stallings moderated the event.

If the COVID-19 pandemic taught us anything, it is that the world is bound together by shared challenges—and that at the center of those challenges stands China. Thanks to decades of breakneck growth and development, Chinese officials, businesses, and institutions now play a critical role in every major global issue, from climate change to biotechnology. But China’s recent 20th Party Congress shows that Xi Jinping’s China is charting a very different path toward addressing these issues, all in the context of slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

This talk drew on a recently-published book, China’s Next Act: How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China’s Rise and the World’s Future, to re-envision China’s role in the world in terms of sustainability and technology. This reframing is essential both because none of these increasingly pressing, shared global challenges can be tackled without China, and because they are reshaping China’s economy and its foreign policy, with major implications for the world at large. At the same time, sustainability and technology issues present opportunities for intensified economic, geopolitical, and ideological competition—a reality that Beijing recognizes.

Drawing on the book, this talk explains that the danger is that China’s next act will drive divergence on the rules and standards the world desperately needs to tackle shared challenges in the decades ahead. In some areas, like clean technology development, competition can be good for the planet. But in others, it could be catastrophic: only cooperation can lower the risks of artificial intelligence and other disruptive new technologies.

With a particular focus on climate change, this talk addressed China’s role in providing global public goods and addressing global challenges, against a backdrop of growing economic, geopolitical, and ideological rivalry with other powers.

 

Speakers:

Scott M. Moore is a political scientist, university administrator, and former policymaker whose career focuses on China, sustainability, and emerging technology. As Director of China Programs and Strategic Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania, Scott Moore works with faculty members from across the University to design, implement, and highlight innovative, high-impact global research initiatives in areas including sustainability and emerging technology. Dr. Moore directs Penn Global’s four research and engagement fund programs, including those designed to support faculty-led projects in China, India, and Africa as well as its At-Risk Scholars Program. In addition, Dr. Moore conducts research as an affiliate of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China and The Water Center at Penn, and teaches in the Department of Political Science.

 

Discussant:

 

John Helveston is interested in understanding the factors that shape technological change, with a particular focus on transitioning to more sustainable and energy-saving technologies. Within this broader category, he studies consumer preferences and market demand for new technologies as well as relationships between innovation, industry structure, and technology policy. He has explored these themes in the context of China’s rapidly developing electric vehicle industry. He applies an interdisciplinary approach to research, with expertise in discrete choice modeling and conjoint analysis as well as interview-based case studies.

 

 

Moderator:

photo of Barbara StallingsBarbara Stallings is a William R. Rhodes Research Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and editor of Studies in Comparative International Development. She is also a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University. Before arriving at Brown in 2002, she was director of the Economic Development Division of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, Chile (1993–2002), and professor of political economy at the University of Wisconsin–Madison (1977–1993). She has doctorates in economics (University of Cambridge) and in political science (Stanford University) and is a specialist in development economics, with an emphasis on development strategies and international finance. In addition, she works on issues of economic relations between Asia and Latin America and comparisons between the two regions. Her recent books are Innovation and Inclusion in Latin America: Strategies to Avoid the Middle Income Trap (2016) and Promoting Development: The Political Economy of East Asian Foreign Aid (2017). Her most recent book, Dependency in the Twenty-First Century?: The Political Economy of China-Latin America Relations (2020), was selected as one of Foreign Affairs’ best books of 2020. She has taught at various universities in China and elsewhere in Asia; currently she is a distinguished visiting professor at the Schwarzman Program at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

XR, AI, and Human Rights

Tuesday, November 1st, 2022

Data-driven technologies such as XR and AI could, if effectively designed and deployed, enhance human rights because they expand individual capabilities. XR uses computer-generated virtual environments to enhance an individual’s capabilities and experiences. AI, in contrast, attempts to replicate the way humans understand and process information and, combined with the capabilities of a computer, process vast amounts of data without flaws. But computers lack moral and ethical reasoning skills although some people assert that computers can be trained with the “right” data. Yet many believe these technologies undermine a wide range of human rights from access to information, privacy, freedom of speech and association, and rights to non-discrimination, for example.

 

Speakers:

Dr. Louis Rosenberg, a pioneer of virtual and augmented reality for over 30 years and current CEO of Unanimous AI. He has written a variety of pieces arguing that several human rights will be undermined and we will be subject to more fraud and deception.

 

 

 

Moderator:

Professor Susan Aaronson, Director of the Digital Trade and Data Governance Hub, GWU.

 

 

 

 

 

Please contact datagovhub@gwu.edu with any questions about the webinar or the Hub’s educational efforts.

Unidimensional Underpinnings of Multidimensional Counting Measures

Monday, 31st October, 2022

Zoom and In-Person

We were pleased to invite you to a joint virtual event with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) on Monday, October 31st, 2022. This seminar featured speaker James Foster (George Washington University) discussing “Unidimensional Underpinnings of Multidimensional Counting Measures.

The multidimensional poverty index (MPI) and other counting measures identify and evaluate poverty based on the multiple deprivations experienced by people. Traditional unidimensional measures gauge poverty in a distribution of income (or another variable) using shortfalls from a poverty line. This paper provides an intuitive procedure for transforming unidimensional poverty measures into multidimensional poverty measures by applying a unidimensional measure to an attainment count distribution given a poverty line. The resulting multidimensional measures satisfy ordinality by construction. Other multidimensional properties are assured by their single dimensional counterparts, with the exception of dimensional breakdown which is central to multidimensional poverty but has no unidimensional analogue. Instead, this property is obtained by using an augmented poverty gap or the weight average of the first two FGT measures, which through the transformation generates the MPI.

Speakers:

Picture of James FosterJames Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr., Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the FGT poverty measures, the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

The many forms of poverty: Analyses of deprivation interlinkages in the developing world

Monday, 24th October, 2022

It is widely acknowledged that for efficient progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) their interlinkages have to be taken into account. The global Multidimensional Poverty Index is based on ten deprivations indicators each of which is aligned with specific SDGs. The overlap of these deprivations already figures prominently in the way poverty is measured, i.e. as multiple deprivation. In this paper we complement previous analyses with a novel account to explore how exactly deprivations are interlinked and how these interconnections vary across the developing world. More specifically, we suggest analyzing deprivation within our measurement framework using profiles, bundles, and co-deprivations which each illuminate particular aspects of the joint distribution of deprivations. Additionally, we also apply latent class analysis to corroborate our findings. We use data for 111 countries representing 6.1 billion people to document key patterns at the global level and selected findings for world regions and countries, which may serve as benchmark for more detailed analyses.We also discuss how our approach may (i) be adopted to different settings and (ii) inform multi-sectoral policy programmes.

Speakers:

​Ricardo Nogales (Universidad Privada de Bolivia and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, University of Oxford)

 

 

 

 

Nicolai Suppa (Centre for Demographic Studies, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, University of Oxford)

 

 

 

 

About The Series:

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as race, ethnicity, gender, and caste, the statistical capacity of nations, social protection, the use of geospatial mapping in tracking poverty, poverty and refugees, and evaluating whether we’re on track to meet UN SDG Goal #1. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 11 a.m. ET. They are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

The 2022 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index

Monday, 17th October, 2022

This seminar explored the latest findings of the 2022 update of the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). It included a presentation of the results of this year’s report co-launched with the United Nations Development Programme on the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty. The global MPI report provides updated internationally comparable figures and innovative analysis of multidimensional poverty in developing regions.

 

 

An environmentally-augmented Multidimensional Poverty Index: The Case of Madagascar

Monday, 10th October, 2022

The continuing degradation of the environment, which constitutes a major threat to human life, urges scientists to find new reliable methods to measure the association between human well-being and the state of the environment. There is a clear nexus between human poverty and environmental issues. They have been identified as acute and urgent overlapping policy issues which demand good measures to address them jointly. At the same time, considerable research has focused on analysing the relationship between development or poverty and the environment, in particular with a focus on monetary poverty, food security, livelihoods, and other ecosystem services. This paper seeks to contribute to this policy and research work by providing a discussion of overlaps between multidimensional poverty levels and different environmental aspects and issues; and by building a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) which integrates an environmental dimension and respective indicators. Using Madagascar as a case study, we focus on forest, air quality, cyclones, earthquakes, and fire, which we use to construct indicators reflecting environmental deprivations. For this, we are merging MICS and DHS household datasets with spatial environmental data.

Speakers:

  Sabina Alkireis the Professor of Poverty and Human Development and directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford. Previously, she worked at the George Washington University, Harvard University, the Human Security Commission, and the World Bank. She has a DPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford. Together with Professor James Foster, Sabina developed the Alkire-Foster (AF) method for measuring multidimensional poverty, a flexible technique that can incorporate different dimensions, or aspects of poverty, to create measures tailored to each context. With colleagues at OPHI, this has been applied and implemented empirically to produce a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). The MPI offers a tool to identify who is poor by considering the range of deprivations they suffer. It is used to report a headline figure of poverty (the MPI), which can be unpacked to provide a detailed information platform for policy design showing how people are poor nationally, and how they are poor by areas, groups, and by each indicator.

   Herizo Andrianandrasanais a Researcher for the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. Herizo is using remote sensing and GIS techniques to look at key environmental variables that can be associated with the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). He is now working with Sabina Alkire and Dyah Pritadrajati to write a paper on changes in MPI and environmental deprivations in Madagascar. Herizo completed his DPhil in 2017 at the Oxford Long Term Ecology Lab (OxLEL) Department of Zoology, University of Oxford. To OPHI’s knowledge, he is the first Malagasy person to be awarded a doctorate degree at the University of Oxford. He is a conservation practitioner with 18 years’ experience in community-based conservation approach including participatory ecological monitoring in Madagascar. He won the 2014 Tusk Award for Conservation in Africa, presented by HRH Prince William, and the 2006 Ramsar Crane Bank Award.

   Alexandra Fortacz, works as a Research Analyst for OPHI, advising and producing policy briefs and supporting research projects. She has previously worked in international relations and development in Uganda and Strasbourg, for governmental, non-governmental, and international institutions. Alexandra holds an MPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford and a BA in Political Science from the University of Vienna. Her research interests include conflict and peace, the capability approach, multidimensional poverty, human development, human rights, and citizenship.

 

 

  Frank Vollmer, is a Researcher for the OPHI, joining in January 2018 to support the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI) team. He is also a Lecturer in development economics at the University Jaume I, Spain. Prior to joining OPHI, Frank worked at the University of Edinburgh as a Research Associate in Agriculture and Rural Development. He also worked as a Research Fellow in Effective Development Cooperation at the German Development Institute. He has a PhD in Peace, Conflict and Development Studies from University Jaume I in Spain, and a Masters in Peace and Development Studies from University of Limerick. His research interests include measurement and determinants analysis of multidimensional poverty, and livelihood analyses, including ecosystem services for poverty alleviation assessments. His main geographical focus is on sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Mozambique. 

 

Discussant:

   Dr Han Wang, is a Postdoctoral fellow in the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. His current research can be divided into two strands: firstly, exploring the relationship between local institutions and sustainable growth. Secondly, seeking credible strategies to reduce socio-economic inequalities. Han did his PhD in Economic Geography at the London School of Economics. During his PhD studies, he completed research consultancy work for ADB, EBRD and OECD. Wang’s research covers Asia and Europe.

 

 

 

 

Microeconomics Seminar with Barry Chiswick (GWU)

Wednesday, 19th October, 2022

12:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.

Hall of Government, Room 321

“The Occupations of Free Women and Substitution with Enslaved Workers in the Antebellum United States.”

Barry Chiswick (GWU) will present his paper “The Occupations of Free Women and Substitution with Enslaved Workers in the Antebellum United States”

This seminar will be in-person.

Please sign up for our listserv for link and announcements for all of our seminars.

Macro-International Seminar with Jennie Bai (Georgetown University)

Wed, October 19, 2022

2:30 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

 

“Security Lending and Corporate Financing: Evidence from Bond Issuance”

Jennie Bai (Georgetown University) who will be presenting the paper “Securities Lending and Corporate Financing: Evidence from Bond Issuance.”Seminar will be in-person.  Please sign up for our Seminars Listserv to receive the details.

Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus on The New Economics of Zero Poverty, Zero Unemployment, and Zero Net Carbon Emissions

Thursday, October 27th, 2022
9:00 a.m. – 10 a.m. ET
Lindner Family Commons
Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, 6th Floor
and Virtually via Zoom

We are pleased to invite you to a conversation with Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, the founder of the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh who created a model for combating poverty through microlending. He is the author of three books, including Banker to the Poor and A World of Three Zeroes: The New Economics of Zero Poverty, Zero Unemployment, and Zero Carbon Emissions. The event will be moderated by Prof. James Foster, Oliver T. Carr Jr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. Prof. Foster is known for developing the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) along with Dr. Sabina Alkire. Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres will provide welcome remarks.

Coffee and breakfast will be provided for in-person attendees.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Muhammad YunusNobel Laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus is the founder of Grameen Bank, pioneering the concepts of microcredit and social business, founding more than 50 Social Business companies in Bangladesh. For his constant innovation and enterprise, the Fortune Magazine named Professor Yunus in March 2012 as “one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.” At the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 Professor Yunus was conferred with the Olympic Laurel award for his extensive work in sports for development, bringing the concept of social business to the sports world.

In 2006, Professor Yunus and Grameen Bank were jointly awarded Nobel Peace Prize.

Dr. Yunus is the recipient of 63 honorary degrees from universities across 26 countries. He has received 143 awards from 33 countries including state honours from 10 countries. He is one of only seven individuals to have received the Nobel Peace Prize, the United State Presidential Medal of Freedom and the United States Congressional Gold Medal. He has appeared on the cover of Time magazine, Newsweek and Forbes magazine. In 2016 GWU awarded him the President’s Medal in recognition of his service.

Professor Yunus has been stressing the need for a basic decision of ‘No Going Back’ to the old ways of thinking and doing. He proposes to create new roads to go to a new destination by creating a World of 3 Zeros – zero net carbon emission, zero wealth concentration for ending poverty once for all, and zero unemployment by unleashing entrepreneurship in everyone.

His recent focuses are:

a) Professor Yunus has been campaigning for making the Covid 19 Vaccine as a Global Common Good since June, 2020, urging the World Trade Organization to place a temporary waiver on Intellectual Property right on vaccine to free up the global capacity to produce vaccines at all locations around the world.

b) Professor Yunus has launched a programme of creating a network of 3ZERO Clubs, each club to be formed by five young people. The programme aims to engage the global youth in initiating actions for creating solutions for global problems.

Welcome Remarks:

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres was appointed Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University effective February 1, 2021. Ayres is a foreign policy practitioner and award-winning author with senior experience in the government, nonprofit, and private sectors. From 2013 to 2021, she was senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where she remains an adjunct senior fellow. From 2010 to 2013 Ayres served as deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia. During her tenure at the State Department in the Barack Obama administration, she covered all issues across a dynamic region of 1.3 billion people at the time (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and provided policy direction for four U.S. embassies and four consulates.

Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Her book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018 and was selected by the Financial Times for its “Summer 2018: Politics” list. An updated paperback edition was released in 2019. She served as the project director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S.-India relations, and, from 2014 to 2016, as the project director for an initiative on the new geopolitics of China, India, and Pakistan supported by the MacArthur Foundation.

About the Moderator:

Picture of James FosterProfessor James Foster is the Vice Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

Human Development Report 2022 – Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives. Shaping Our Future in a Transforming World

Monday, November 14th, 2022

Zoom and In-Person

We live in a world of worry. The ongoing Covid-19 pan­demic, having driven reversals in human development in almost every country, continues to spin off variants unpre­dictably. War in Ukraine and elsewhere has created more human suffering. Record-breaking temperatures, fires, storms and floods sound the alarm of planetary systems increasingly out of whack. Together, they are fuelling a cost-of-living crisis felt around the world, painting a pic­ture of uncertain times and unsettled lives.Uncertainty is not new, but its dimensions are taking om­inous new forms today. A new “uncertainty complex” is emerging, never before seen in human history. Constitut­ing it are three volatile and interacting strands: the desta­bilizing planetary pressures and inequalities of the Anthro­pocene, the pursuit of sweeping societal transformations to ease those pressures and the widespread and intensi­fying polarization.This new uncertainty complex and each new crisis it spawns are impeding human development and unsettling lives the world over. In the wake of the pandemic, and for the first time ever, the global Human Development Index (HDI) value declined—for two years straight. Many coun­tries experienced ongoing declines on the HDI in 2021. Even before the pandemic, feelings of insecurity were on the rise nearly everywhere. Many people feel alienated from their political systems, and in another reversal, dem­ocratic backsliding has worsened.There is peril in new uncertainties, in the insecurity, polar­ization and demagoguery that grip many countries. But there is promise, too—an opportunity to reimagine our futures, to renew and adapt our institutions and to craft new stories about who we are and what we value. This is the hopeful path forward, the path to follow if we wish to thrive in a world in flux.

 

Speakers:

Yu-Chieh Hsu (Human Development Report Office)

Yu-Chieh is a member of the Human Development Report Office (HDRO)’s statistics team, working on the measurement and evaluation of human development and gender equality. Her work focuses on the Human Development Report (HDR)’s Human Development Index (HDI) and gender-related composite indices and indicators. Much of her research has been centered on health, education, gender, and inequality. She joined the HDRO as a Statistics Postdoctoral Consultant in 2014. Before coming to UNDP, she was a Senior Research Analyst at the National Opinion Research Center (NORC). During that time, she was jointly appointed as a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago.Yu-Chieh graduated from Carnegie Mellon University with a PhD and MPhil in Public Policy and Management. She also holds a Master’s Degree in Statistics from Columbia University. Yu-Chieh’s PhD dissertation focused on demography and applied statistics. Her work has been published in peer-reviewed journals including Demography, Population Studies, and Journal of Health Economics.

 

Tasneem Mirza (United Nations Development Programme)

Tasneem Mirza is an Economist at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) where she served in several roles. Currently, she is working at the Human Development Report Office as a researcher and co-author of the Human Development Report and the Multidimensional Poverty Index Report. Tasneem also worked with the SDG Integration Team at UNDP supporting countries to prioritise and make progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific at UNDP providing policy and advisory services to country offices. Prior to UNDP, Tasneem worked at the Asian Development Bank HQ in Manila, where she initially joined as a Young Professional. There she supported projects and programs to promote trade and economic integration in South Asia and managed the Secretariat for South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation jointly with the Governments of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Bhutan. During her graduate school years Tasneem worked at the Center for Global Trade Analysis Projects (GTAP) at Purdue University where she also completed her PhD in Economics. At GTAP she supported the development of the GTAP model/database and studied the impacts of trade liberalization policies on employment, poverty, and income.

 

About The series:

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as race, ethnicity, gender, and caste, the statistical capacity of nations, social protection, the use of geospatial mapping in tracking poverty, poverty and refugees, and evaluating whether we’re on track to meet UN SDG Goal #1. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 11 a.m. ET. They are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

 

 

IMF Africa REO

Wednesday, November 16th, 2022

10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.

via Zoom and In-Person

We are pleased to invite you to an event titled “Living on the Edge: A Discussion of the IMF’s Africa Regional Economic Outlook” on Wednesday, November 16th, 2022 from 10:00 am – 12:00 pm EST. This event will feature two panels. The first panel, “Building a More Food-Secure Sub-Saharan Africa” will feature IMF presenters Ivanova Reyes (IMF) and Qianqian Zhang (IMF) alongside discussant Moses Kansanga (GW). The second panel, “Managing Oil Price Uncertainty and the Energy Transition,” will feature IMF presenter Hany Abdel-Latif (IMF) alongside discussant Robert J. Weiner (GW). Catherine Pattillo, a Deputy Director in the IMF’s African Department, will provide welcome remarks alongside IIEP Director Steve Suranovic. This event is co-sponsored by the Institute for African Studies.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) recovery has been abruptly interrupted. Last year, activity finally bounced back, lifting GDP growth in 2021 to 4.7 percent. But growth in 2022 is expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6 percent, as a worldwide slowdown, tighter global financial conditions, and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into a region already wearied by an ongoing series of shocks. Rising food and energy prices are impacting the region’s most vulnerable, and public debt and inflation are at levels not seen in decades. Against this backdrop, and with limited options, many countries find themselves pushed closer to the edge. The near-term outlook is extremely uncertain as the region’s prospects are tied to developments in the global economy and with a number of countries facing difficult sociopolitical and security situations at home. Within this challenging environment, policymakers must confront immediate socioeconomic crises as they arise, while also endeavoring to reduce vulnerabilities to future shocks, building resilience. Ultimately, however, the region’s safety and prosperity will require high-quality growth and the implementation of policies that will set the stage for a sustainable recovery, helping countries move away from the edge.

Agenda

10:00-10:10 – Welcome and conjuncture chapter – IIEP Director Steve Suranovic and IMF Africa Deputy Director Catherine Pattillo

10:10-10:55 – Panel 1 – Building a More Food-Secure Sub-Saharan Africa
Ivanova Reyes Peguero and Qianqian Zhang – IMF Presenters
Moses Kansanga, GW Discussant
Moderator and Audience Q&A

10:55-11:10 – Coffee Break

11:10-11:55 – Panel 2 – Managing Oil Price Uncertainty and the Energy Transition
Hany Abdel-Latif – IMF Presenter
Robert Weiner, GW Discussant
Moderator and Audience Q&A

11:55-12:00 – Wrap-up

Welcoming Remarks:

Catherina Pattillo is a Deputy Director in the IMF’s African Department where she oversees work on several countries, as well as on climate change, capacity development, gender and research. Since joining the Fund from a position at Oxford University, she has worked in the Fiscal Affairs Department where she was chief of the division responsible for the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, the Research Department, and on countries in Africa and the Caribbean, and the Strategy, Policy and Review Department where she worked on low-income country issues, and emerging issues such as gender, inequality, and climate change. She has published in these areas, as well as on Sustainable Development Goals, firm dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa, growth, investment, debt, monetary and exchange rate policies, aid, and currency crises. She received her Ph.D in Economics from Yale University.

Steve Suranovic is the Director at the Institute for International Economic Policy and an Associate Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the George Washington University.  He is the current Director of the GW Global Bachelor’s program (Shanghai), and a former Director of the Elliot School’s Masters in International Economic Policy.  He teaches courses in international economics and microeconomics principles.  His research includes theoretical analysis of the role of ethics in economics, international trade policy, behavioral models of addiction, energy policy, and climate change policy.  (RePEcGoogle ScholarResearch GateSSRN)

Professor Suranovic received his B.S. in mathematics from the University of Illinois at Urbana/Champaign and his M.S. and Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University. He has published in numerous academic journals, including the Journal of International Economics, the Canadian Journal of Economics, World Economy, and the Journal of Health Economics. His book titled, “A Moderate Compromise: Policy Choice in an Era of Globalization,” published by Palgrave-Macmillan, offers a critique of current methods of policy evaluation and choice and suggests a simple, principled, and moderate alternative.  He also has several textbooks about International Economics published by Flat World Knowledge. Professor Suranovic maintains two educational websites. The International Economics Study Center features a free online international economics textbook, and a complete Survey of International Economics course that includes a textbook, PPT presentations, video lectures, and problem sets.  The Ethical Economics Study Center features a collection of primers highlighting the role of ethical behavior in fostering good (or efficient) economic outcomes.  It also features case studies, including selected movie reviews, demonstrating how unethical behavior is often responsible for the negative outcomes attributed to free markets.

Panelists:

Ivanova Reyes is an economist working in the Regional Studies Division of the International Monetary Fund’s African Department.  Prior to joining the IMF, she worked at Gettysburg College, the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Ministry of Economy of the Dominican Republic (DR), Superintendency of Pensions of the DR and Pontificia Universidad Catolica (PUCMM) of DR.  She holds a PhD in Economics from American University, a masters in economics from Georgetown University and a masters in applied macroeconomics from the Pontificia Universidad Catolica (PUC) of Chile.  Her research is focused on analyzing the impact of China’s economy on Latin America and the Caribbean.

 

Hany Abdel-Latif is an Economist in the Regional Studies Division in the IMF’s African Department. Previously, he worked as a lecturer (assistant professor) at Swansea University UK, where he taught econometrics, macroeconomics, and economic policy. His research covers commodity, financial liquidity, and geopolitical risk shocks, among other macro-financial issues. Hany is a research fellow of the Economic Research Forum (ERF) and a fellow of the Higher Education Academy (FHEA) UK. He has acted as a consultant at several institutions, including the UNDP and Cambridge University Assessment. He holds a PhD from Swansea University and an MSc from City, University of London.

 

Qianqian Zhang is an economist in the African Department at the IMF. Her research interests include fiscal policy, fiscal decentralization, gender, and development issues. She previously worked in the Fiscal Affairs Department and as a country economist for Afghanistan. She received her PhD from George Washington University and her master’s degree from Cornell University.

 

 

Discussants:

Moses Kansanga is an Assistant Professor of Geography and International Affairs at The George Washington University. He is a critical geographer whose research explores questions at the intersection of sustainable food systems and natural resource management from a political ecology perspective. For the past decade, Moses has worked with smallholder farming communities in the Global South with concentration on sustainable agriculture and natural resource politics. He received his PHD at University of Western Ontario.

 

Robert Weiner is the director of the Master of Science in International Business program and a professor of international business, public policy & public administration, and international affairs at the George Washington University School of Business, Washington D.C. He serves concurrently as deputy director of the Master of Science in Government Contracts, a joint program of the GW Schools of Business and Law. He is a faculty director of the Business School’s Center for International Business Education and Research, and an affiliate of the Elliott School of International Affairs’ Institute for International Economic Policy, Institute for Middle East Studies, Institute for Security and Conflict Studies, and Sigur Center for Asian Studies. He is also senior advisor to the Brattle Group. He received his PhD from Harvard University.

Wenger Family Lecture on International Business and Finance: The Future of Global Markets (Washington, DC)

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Lindner Commons, 6th Floor

Click here to read what GW Today wrote about this event.

The GW community is invited to join us for a reception and panel discussion led by Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres on “The Future of Global Markets,” as part of the Wenger Family Lecture series on International Business and Finance.

This event is presented by the Elliott School Office of Development and Alumni Relations and underwritten by the Henry E. & Consuelo S. Wenger Foundation. It is cosponsored by the Institute for International Economic Policy and the International Women of Elliott.

Event Timeline

5:00pm Registration opens
5:30pm Panel discussion
6:30pm Reception
7:30pm Event ends

 

Panelists

ESIA Alumnus Patrick HylandPatrick Hyland, MA ’03, is a managing director in the Global Client Business within Goldman Sachs Asset Management and also serves as co-chair of the Separate Account and Advisory Working Group. He joined Goldman Sachs in 2010 as a vice president in the Platform Solutions Group within the Investment Management Division and was named managing director in 2021. Prior to joining the firm, Patrick was vice president and manager in Client Service at OppenheimerFunds. He is also an Executive Circle member of the Elliott School’s Institute for International Economic Policy.

 

 

ESIA Alumna Persis KhambattaPersis Khambatta, MA ’07, is director of global government affairs for India and South Asia at Walmart. Previously, she spent eight years with BowerGroupAsia, managing key client relationships across South Asia, providing political-economic analyses, mapping, regulatory monitoring and country strategies. Khambatta also served as a fellow and adjunct fellow for the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as well as a program officer and consultant at The Asia Foundation.

 

ESIA Alumna Tiffany Townsend

 

Tiffany Townsend, BA ’01, was recently named executive vice president for global communications at NYC & Company, the official destination marketing organization for New York City. She previously served as a senior advisor with the U.S. Small Business Administration in the Office of Government Contracting & Business Development. Townsend formerly held positions at the Brooklyn Navy Yard, the New York City Council, the New York Wheel, the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey, and the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. She is an Executive Circle member of the International Women of Elliott.

 

ESIA Dean Alyssa AyresModerator: Alyssa Ayres joined GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs as dean on February 1, 2021. She is a foreign policy practitioner and award-winning author with senior experience in the government, nonprofit, and private sectors. From 2013 to 2021, she was senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, where she remains an adjunct senior fellow. From 2010 to 2013, Ayres served as deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific.

 

 

 

 

A note about COVID-19: The health and well-being of GW students, alumni, friends, faculty, and staff remains a top priority for GW and all alumni events will proceed in compliance with all state, local, and public health guidelines.

It is recommended that all event attendees be fully vaccinated. Proof of full vaccination against COVID-19 or a recent negative COVID-19 test is no longer required to attend GW events. Masks may be required indoors.

FFC/2022: The 24th Federal Forecasters Conference

Thursday, September 22nd, 2022
9:00am – 4:30pm ET
Lindner Family Commons and via Webex

At the beginning of the conference, join us in honoring the life and work of friend, colleague, and longtime supporter of the Federal Forecasters Consortium, Professor Frederick L. Joutz.

Forecasters often need to predict the present—or “nowcast’’—to help inform policy decisions. The onset of the pandemic highlighted the importance of nowcasting the economy and the pandemic itself. Conditions altered rapidly and policymakers responded to those changes with unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus and with public policies such as lockdowns and mask mandates. To aid in nowcasting, forecasters turn to machine-learning techniques and high-frequency data, which are often drawn from alternative data sources such as social media, rather than from standard sample surveys and administrative data. Nowcasting poses difficult challenges, particularly because data about the present may be unavailable, incomplete, or inaccurately measured. While high-frequency data can be a great source of timely and detailed information, it can come with its own dynamics, noise, and structural breaks. Those features can arise as a byproduct of individual decisions (as with Twitter) or the customer composition for private businesses (as with credit card transactions). The conference will consider nowcasting and its roles in decision-making. How have recently developed tools and data sources contributed to nowcasting, and how do nowcasts serve policymakers?

About the Speakers:

Picture of Baoline ChenBaoline Chen (Bureau of Economic Analysis) is a senior research economist at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Her recent research focuses on applied macroeconomic time series analysis, which includes nowcasting and forecasting of GDP and its components, structural time series modeling for business fluctuation in GDP and its major components, detecting and correcting residual seasonality in the national account statistics, and benchmarking and reconciliation of large system of economic time series. Before she joined BEA in 2001, she was an associate professor of economics at Rutgers University, NJ. She holds a PhD in economics from Indiana University.

 

Picture of Neil MehrotraNeil Mehrotra (U.S. Department of the Treasury) serves as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Policy in the Office of Economic Policy at US Treasury. He was most recently Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the Research and Statistics Group. He joined the Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function at the NY Fed in July of 2019. His research focuses on declining interest rates and secular stagnation, including implications for monetary and fiscal policy. He also studies the importance of financial frictions for the behavior of firms over the business cycle. Mehrotra’s research has been published in journals such as the American Economic Review, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and AEJ: Macroeconomics. Prior to joining the New York Fed, Mehrotra was an Assistant Professor in the Economics Department at Brown University from 2013 to 2019. His research has been supported by grants from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. From 2016 to 2017, Mehrotra was a visiting junior scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He received his Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Princeton University in 2005 and a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University in 2013.

Picture of Jason SchachterJason Schachter (U.S. Census Bureau) is Chief of the US Census Bureau’s International Migration Branch and has worked in the fields of demography and statistics for over twenty years. Prior to his current position at the Census Bureau, he worked in Geneva, Switzerland for the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe as their expert on international migration statistics. He started his career as a demographer for the U.S. Census Bureau, but later worked as a senior statistician for the International Labour Organization, and served as a consultant for international organizations like the World Bank and the International Organization for Migration. He has also held the position of Director of Research for New York City’s Division of Citywide Equal Employment Opportunity, served as a Population Affairs Officer in the Policy Section of the United Nation’s Population Division and was an Adjunct Professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. He received his PhD in Rural Sociology and Demography from Pennsylvania State University, examining internal U.S. migration patterns and reasons for move of the poor and international migrants.

Special Afternoon Session: Simple versus Complex Forecasting Methods

Numerous studies have investigated whether simple forecasting methods outperform complex methods. Research across various fields has repeatedly found that simple forecasting methods generally perform as well as—or better than—complex methods. “Complex methods”, however, is a broad term that describes a diverse swath of forecasting models; not all complex methods are the same. Indeed, some complex methods do outperform simple forecasting methods. In this session, discussants explain the attributes of simple models that allow them to outperform complex models in their fields and vice versa. Participants also describe barriers to using more accurate, simple models in their field, and how they have overcome such obstacles.

  • Moderator: Kevin Dubina, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Neil R. Ericsson, Federal Reserve Board
  • Anne Morse, US Census Bureau
  • Maria Hussain, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Sponsoring Agencies

Bureau of Economic Analysis • Bureau of Labor Statistics • Congressional Budget Office • Department of Veterans Affairs • Economic Research Service, USDA • Federal Aviation Administration • Federal Reserve Board • Internal Revenue Service • Office of Economic Policy, U.S. Department of the Treasury • U.S. Census Bureau • U.S. Department of Labor • U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis • U.S. Geological Survey


Partnering Organizations

H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, The George Washington University • Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs • Society of Government Economists

Collaborate To Create Change: Towards Racial and Socioeconomic Equity in our Scholarship, Research & Teaching

Friday, September 23rd, 2022
7:30 a.m. – 6 p.m. ET
The Dee Kelly Lounge
Jack Morton Auditorium
Faculty Conference Center
The Jacob Burns Moot Court Room

The George Washington University invites you to join us for our first racial and socioeconomic equity research showcase. GW’s Equity Institute Initiative (EII) is a university-wide collaboration to create an institute dedicated to community-engaged research on the worldwide program of racial and ethnic inequality.

Keynote Speakers

Picture of Bonnie GordonDr. Bonnie Gordon is an Associate Professor in the University of Virginia McIntire Department of Music. She is a music historian who works across disciplines and creative practices. She is fascinated by the idea of sound as fundamental to the ways we move through the world and deeply committed to the idea that learning about sound is not for musicians only. primary research interests center on the experiences of sound in Early Modern music making and the affective potential of the human voice.  

Professor Gordon is a founding faculty director of the newly launched University of Virginia Equity Center; she founded the Arts Mentors a program designed to increase access to the arts in Charlottesville; and is a collaborating faculty member of The Sound Justice Lab, a group of artists and academics who use audio-visual media and storytelling to explore what justice means to ordinary people and everyday life.

Professor Gordon’s research centers on sound and gender in the early Modern world. Her first book, Monteverdi’s Unruly Women (Cambridge University Press, 2004) frames the composer’s madrigals and music dramas written between 1600 and 1640 as windows into contemporary notions of sound, body, voice, and sense. She has explored similar issues in a variety of contexts, including articles about contemporary singer-songwriters Kate Bush and Tori Amos and an interdisciplinary and cross cultural volume of essays co-edited with Martha Freldman about courtesans entitled The Courtesans Arts, (Oxford University Press, 2006). Dr. Gordon is the recipient of two grants from the Folger Shakespeare Library, a dissertation grant from the American Association of University Women, a Mellon Postdoctoral Fellowship at Brandeis University, a Bunting Fellowship at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, and a National Endowment for the Humanities Fellowship. She has also been the Robert Lehman Visiting Professor at Villa I Tatti, The Harvard University Center for Italian Renaissance Studies. In addition to her scholarly work, she has published in the New York Times, Washington Post, Slate and the Cville Weekly. She plays jazz, rock, and classical viola.

Picture of Eddie GlaudeOne of the nation’s most prominent scholars, Dr. Eddie Glaude, Jr. is an author, political commentator, public intellectual and passionate educator who examines the complex dynamics of the American experience. His writings, including Democracy in Black: How Race Still Enslaves the American Soul, In a Shade of Blue: Pragmatism and the Politics of Black America, and his most recent, the New York Times bestseller, Begin Again: James Baldwin’s America and Its Urgent Lessons for our Own, takes a wide look at Black communities, the difficulties of race in the United States and the challenges we face as a democracy. In his writing and speaking, Glaude is an American critic in the tradition of James Baldwin and Ralph Waldo Emerson, confronting history and bringing our nation’s complexities, vulnerabilities and hope into full view. Hope that is, in one of his favorite quotes from W.E.B. Du Bois, “not hopeless, but a bit unhopeful.”

Glaude is the James S. McDonnell Distinguished University Professor and Chair of the Department of African American Studies at Princeton. He is also on the Morehouse College Board of Trustees. He frequently appears in the media, as a columnist for TIME Magazine and as an MSNBC contributor on programs like Morning Joe and Deadline Whitehouse with Nicolle Wallace. He regularly appears on Meet the Press on Sundays. Glaude also hosts Princeton’s AAS podcast, a conversation around the field of African American Studies and the Black experience in the 21st century.

A highly accomplished and respected scholar of religion, Glaude is a former president of the American Academy of Religion. His books on religion and philosophy include An Uncommon Faith: A Pragmatic Approach to the Study of African American Religion, African American Religion: A Very Short Introduction, and Exodus! Religion, Race and Nation in Early 19th Century Black America, which was awarded the Modern Language Association’s William Sanders Scarborough Book Prize.

Some like to describe Glaude as the quintessential Morehouse man, having left his home in Moss Point, Mississippi at age 16 to begin studies at the HBCU and alma mater of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. He holds a master’s degree in African American Studies from Temple University and a Ph.D. in Religion from Princeton University.

Glaude is known both for his inspiring oratory and ability to convene conversations that engage fellow citizens from all backgrounds — from young activists to corporate audiences looking for a fresh perspective on DEI. In 2011, he delivered Harvard’s DuBois lectures. His 2015 commencement remarks at Colgate University titled, “Turning Our Backs,” was recognized by the New York Times as one of the best commencement speeches of the year.

Combining a scholar’s knowledge of history, a political commentator’s take on the latest events, and an activist’s passion for social justice, Glaude challenges all of us to examine our collective American conscience, “not to posit the greatness of America, but to establish the ground upon which to imagine the country anew.”

Picture of Kristen ClarkKristen Clarke is the Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights at the U.S. Department of Justice. In this role, she leads the Justice Department’s broad federal civil rights enforcement efforts and works to uphold the civil and constitutional rights of all who live in America. Assistant Attorney General Clarke is a lifelong civil rights lawyer who has spent her entire career in public service.

Assistant Attorney General Clarke began her career as a trial attorney in the Civil Rights Division through the Department of Justice’s Honors Program. In 2006, she joined the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, where she helped lead the organization’s work in the areas of voting rights and election law across the country. Ms. Clarke worked on cases defending the constitutionality of the Voting Rights Act, presented oral argument to the DC District Court in Shelby County, Alabama v. Holder, and has provided testimony on federal and state voting rights legislation. In 2011, she was named the head of the Civil Rights Bureau for the New York State Attorney General’s Office, where she led broad civil rights enforcement actions. Under her leadership, the Bureau secured landmark agreements with banks to address unlawful redlining, employers to address barriers to reentry for people with criminal backgrounds, police departments on reforms to policies and practices, major retailers on racial profiling of consumers, landlords on discriminatory housing policies, school districts concerning issues relating to the school-to-prison pipeline and more. In 2015, Ms. Clarke was named the president and executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, one of the nation’s leading civil rights organizations founded at the request of John F. Kennedy. There, she led the organization’s legal work in courts across the country addressing some of the nation’s most complex racial justice and civil rights challenges.

Assistant Attorney General Clarke was born in Brooklyn, New York. After graduating from Choate Rosemary Hall, she received her AB from Harvard University and her JD from Columbia Law School. 

Picture of Caroline Laguerre BrownCaroline Laguerre-Brown serves as the Vice Provost for Diversity, Equity and Community Engagement.  Caroline directs GW’s efforts to advance diversity and inclusion throughout the university and oversees the Honey W. Nashman Center for Civic Engagement and Public Service, the Office of Disability Support Services, the Multicultural Student Services Center and the Title IX Office. 

Prior to joining the George Washington University in August 2016, Caroline previously served as the Vice Provost and Chief Diversity Officer at Johns Hopkins University where she developed their first university-wide sexual harassment prevention training initiative, spearheaded unconscious bias training for faculty search committees, launched a Race in America speaker series and co-developed a comprehensive faculty diversity initiative.  Prior to joining Johns Hopkins, she held positions as labor and employment defense counsel for the New York City Transit Authority and as assistant director of the Equal Employment Opportunity Office for the Fire Department of New York. She also served as staff counsel to the Equal Employment Advisory Council in Washington, DC.

Caroline is a graduate of the State University of New York at Binghamton and the University of Virginia School of Law.

Featured Speakers

Picture of Mark WrightonPresident Mark S. Wrighton, PhD, was elected President of the George Washington University January 1, 2022. For almost 24 years (July 1995-May 2019), Wrighton served as the 14th Chancellor and chief executive officer of Washington University in St. Louis. In the years following his appointment, Washington University made significant progress in student quality, campus improvements, resource development, curriculum, and international reputation.

 

 

Picture of Aristide J. CollinsDr. Aristide J. Collins Jr. is Vice President, Chief of Staff, and Secretary of the University, at the George Washington University. His expertise includes executive leadership in university governance, institutional advancement, facilitating and managing the implementation of Board of Trustees, presidential and university-wide initiatives to advance organizational priorities. He has also served as Vice President for Development and Alumni Relations, providing strategic oversight and leadership during the public phase of the University’s $1 billion “Making History” campaign, recorded as the largest fundraising year in its history.

 

Picture of Christopher A. BraceyChristopher A. Bracey (Provost and Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs) is an internationally recognized expert in the fields of U.S. race relations, individual rights, and criminal procedure. Professor Bracey teaches and researches in the areas of the legal history of U.S. race relations, constitutional law, criminal procedure, civil procedure, and civil rights. He was appointed to his role as Provost in June 2021.

 

 

Picture of Dayna Bowen MatthewDayna Bowen Matthew, JD, PhD, is the Dean and Harold H. Greene Professor of Law at the George Washington University Law School. A leader in public health and civil rights law who focuses on disparities in health, health care, and the social determinants of health, Dean Matthew joined GW Law in 2020. She is the author of the bestselling book Just Medicine: A Cure for Racial Inequality in American Health Care and the newly released Just Health: Treating Structural Racism to Heal America.

All attendees are welcome to attend the event in person. We require that guests follow the George Washington University Visitor guidelines.

Hope Over Fate: Fazle Hasan Abed and the Science of Ending Global Poverty

Wednesday, September 28th, 2022

We are pleased to invite you to a book launch event featuring Scott MacMillan to discuss his recent book Hope Over Fate: Fazle Hasan Abed and the Science of Ending Global Poverty. This event will consist of introductions by IIEP’s Steven Suranovic, a fireside chat between Chair of the GWU Economics Department Stephen Smith and author Scott MacMillan, a book reading, and a short video presentation. Following the presentation, there will be a Q&A and book signing with the author. Books will be available for purchase at the event.

Hope Over Fate tells the story of Fazle Hasan Abed, who Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times called “one of the unsung heroes of modern times.” Fazle Hasan Abed was a mild-mannered accountant who may be the most influential man most people have never even heard of. As the founder of BRAC, his work had a profound impact on the lives of millions. A former finance executive with almost no experience in relief aid, he founded BRAC, originally the Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance Committee, in 1972, aiming to help a few thousand war refugees. A half-century later, BRAC is by many measures the largest nongovernmental organization in the world—and by many accounts, the most effective anti-poverty program ever.

With 100,000 BRAC employees reaching more than 100 million people in Asia and Africa, Abed’s methods changed the way global policymakers think about poverty. By the time of his death at eighty-three in December 2019, he was revered in international development circles. Yet among the wider public, he remained largely unknown. His story has never been told—until now. This is the story of a man who lived a life of complexity, blemishes and all, driven by the conviction that in the dominion of human lives, hope will ultimately triumph over fate.

This event is co-sponsored by BRAC, the GW Department of Economics, the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, and the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP).

About the Author:

Picture of Scott MacMillanScott MacMillan works as Director of Learning and Innovation for BRAC USA, where he manages BRAC USA’s portfolio of research grants along with other special projects. A former journalist, he served as the speechwriter of Sir Fazle Hasan Abed, the founder of BRAC, prior to Abed’s death in 2019.

 

 

 

 

About the Host:

Picture of Stephen SmithStephen Smith is Chair of the Department of Economics, and Professor of Economics and International Affairs. He also served as the Director of IIEP from 2009-2012, and 2015-2017. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Cornell University and has been a UNICEF Senior Research Fellow, a Fulbright Research Scholar, a Jean Monnet Research Fellow, an IZA Research Fellow, a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at Brookings, a Fulbright Senior Specialist, a member of the Advisory Council of BRAC USA, and an Associate Editor of the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. In the 1990s, he designed and served as first director of GW’s International Development Studies Program. 

He is Principal Investigator for the research project, “Complementarities of Training, Technology, and Credit in Smallholder Agriculture: Impact, Sustainability, and Policy for Scaling-up in Senegal and Uganda,” funded by BASIS / USAID.

From 2004-2008, he served as co-Principal Investigator, along with Prof. Jim Williams, of GW’s partnership with BRAC University (in Bangladesh).

Smith has done on-site research and program work in several regions of the developing world including Bangladesh, China, Ecuador, India, Senegal, Slovenia, and Uganda. He has been a consultant for the World Bank, the International Labour Office (ILO, Geneva), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), USAID, and the World Institute for Development Economics Research (UN-WIDER, Helsinki). Smith has also conducted extensive research on the economics of employee participation, including works councils, ESOPs, and labor cooperatives, which has included on-site research in Italy, Spain, and Germany.

All attendees are welcome to attend this event in person at the address below or via Zoom. We require that guests follow the George Washington University Visitor guidelines.

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Family Commons, Suite 602
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

Trade Secret? How AI is Changing Trade and How Trade Agreements Address AI

Friday, September 30th, 2022

Artificial intelligence is both expanding trade and altering trade. Moreover, a growing number of digital trade agreements include language to encourage AI. For example, some include provisions encouraging the free flow of data and/ or language requiring that public data when open be provided in a machine readable format. But policymakers are just beginning to figure out how encourage AI (as example to incentivize multi- sectoral data sharing). Meanwhile, more than 60 countries have AI strategies and 11 have data strategies. Policymakers could alter comparative advantage in data through various approaches to regulating data or the data giants. This webinar will feature two scholars who have recently written on the relationship between AI and trade.

Speakers:

Emily Jones, Associate Professor, Blavatnik School of Government Oxford University, author of Digital Disruption: AI and International Trade Policy.

Neha Mishra, Assistant Professor, Graduate Institute, Geneva, author of Regulating artificial intelligence through digital trade agreements

Moderator:

Research Professor Susan Aaronson, Director of the Digital Trade and Data Governance Hub, GWU

2022 WITA Virtual Intensive Trade Seminar

Friday, September 30th, 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM (US/Eastern)
Friday, September 30th, 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM (US/Eastern)
Monday, October 3rd, 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM (US/Eastern)
Tuesday, October 4th, 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM (US/Eastern)
via Zoom

Washington International Trade Association in partnership with the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University and the World Trade Center DC proudly presented the four-part Virtual Intensive Trade Seminar.

The 2022 Intensive Trade Seminar was held virtually on Zoom over three days, September 30, October 3, and October 4.

Speakers help attendees increase their professional knowledge by learning the nuts and bolts of trade policy directly from career trade policy professionals from across government, industry, and law.

2022 Speakers Include:

  • Nasim Fussell, Partner, Holland & Knight; former Chief International Trade Counsel for the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance
  • Viji Rangaswami, Vice President, Federal Affairs, Liberty Mutual; former Chief International Trade Counsel and Staff Director, U.S. House of Representative Committee on Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee
  • Paul H. DeLaney, III, Partner, Kyle House Group; former International Trade Counsel, U.S. Senate Committee on Finance; former Deputy Chief of Staff, Office of U.S. Trade Representative
  • Douglas M. Bell, Global Trade Policy Leader, Ernst & Young; former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury for Trade and Investment
  • Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner, Hogan Lovells, former Deputy Assistant to the President for International Economic Affairs and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council
  • Michael J. Smart, Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors; former Director for International Trade and Investment, National Security Council
  • Tricia Van Orden, Acting Director of the Trade Promotion Coordinating Committee Secretariat for the International Trade Administration, Department of Commerce
  • Deanna Okun, Managing Partner, Adduci, Mastriani & Schaumberg LLP; former Chairwoman of the U.S. International Trade Commission
  • Stacy J. Ettinger, Partner, K&L Gates; Former Senior Legal and Policy Advisor to U.S. Senator Charles Schumer; Former Associate Chief Counsel, Import Administration
  • Vanessa Sciarra, Vice President for Trade and International Competitiveness, American Clean Power Association; former Vice President, Legal Affairs and Trade & Investment Policy, National Foreign Trade Council
  • Juan A. Millán, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Monitoring and Enforcement; former Senior Legal Advisor, U.S. Mission to the WTO
  • Thomas Beline, Partner, Cassidy Levy Kent LLP; formerly, Office of the Chief Counsel for Enforcement and Compliance at the U.S. Department of Commerce
  • Stephen P. Vaughn, Partner, International Trade Team, King & Spalding; former General Counsel, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative
  • Jennifer Hillman, Professor from Practice; Former Member, WTO Appellate Body
  • Bruce Hirsh, Principal, Tailwind Global Strategies; former Chief International Trade Counsel Senate Finance Committee
  • Kevin Wolf, Partner, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP; former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, Bureau of Industry and Security
  • Bob Stack, Washington National Tax, International Tax Group, Managing Director, Deloitte Tax LLP; former Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Tax Affairs, Office of Tax Policy, Department of Treasury
  • Loren Ponds, Practice Co-Lead, Tax Policy, Miller Chevalier; former Majority Tax Counsel, U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Means
  • Sarah Stewart, Executive Director, Silverado Policy Accelerator; former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Environmental and Natural Resources
  • Kelly Milton, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Environmental  and Natural Resources, Office of the United States Trade Representative
  • Dan Mullaney, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East, Office of the United States Trade Representative
  • Daniel Bahar, Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors LLC; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Services and Investment
  • Barbara Weisel, Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors LLC; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific

Click here for more details on the WITA site.

George Talks Business: Durreen Shahnaz

Monday, October 3, 2022
4:30 pm – 5:00 pm ET
City View Room, Elliott School
Flyer

Durreen Shahnaz, founder and CEO of Impact Investment Exchange (IIX) and IIX Foundation, was interviewed by Dr. Alyssa Ayres, dean of the GW Elliott School of International Affairs, and Dr. Anuj Mehrotra, dean of the GW School of Business. Changemaker and impact investing pioneer Durreen Shahnaz, winner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace prize, shared with the GW community how capital markets tools can be harnessed for development goals and expand development finance capacity.

Featured Speaker: 

Picture of Durreen ShahnazDurreen Shahnaz (Founder and CEO, Impact Investment Exchange (IIX) and IIX Foundation) is a global leader of social impact and pioneer in impact investing. She is also the founder of Impact Investment Exchange (IIX) and IIX Foundation. IIX is the home of the world’s first social stock exchange and one of the world’s largest crowdfunding platforms for impact investing. IIX is also a leader in impact assessment methodology and innovative financial structures such as the world’s first gender focused social bond, Women’s Livelihood Bond Series. The company connects the Back Streets of underserved communities to the Wall Streets of the world by changing financial systems and innovating solutions for women empowerment, climate action, and community resilience, thus driving forward the Sustainable Development Goals. IIX and IIX Foundation’s work has unlocked over US$250 million of private sector investment capital and impacted over 100 million direct household lives.

Shahnaz is the recipient of UN Women’s 2020 Asia-Pacific Women’s Empowerment Principles (WEP) award, the 2019 Sustainability Superwoman award from CSR Works, 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award, often referred to as the ‘Nobel Prize for Business’, the 2017 Global Steering Group for Impact Investment Impact Market Builder of the Year award, the 2016 Asia Society Asia Game Changer Award, in addition to the prestigious 2014 Joseph Wharton Social Impact Award given by the Wharton School of University of Pennsylvania. Recently, Shahnaz was named in the Forbes 50 over 50 list as a notable leader in the financial industry.

Shahnaz holds a BA from Smith College as well as an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and an MA from the School for Advanced International Studies at John Hopkins University.

Moderators:
Alyssa Ayres, Ph.D., Dean, The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs
Anuj Mehrotra, Ph.D., Dean, The George Washington University School of Business

The session took place in person at the GW Elliott School of International Affairs and online on the GW School of Business YouTube channel. See more details and the full George Talks Business series here.

Important Note: Please arrive a few minutes early. The interview will be live streamed, and we request that all guests are seated no later than 4:25 p.m. ET to ensure a quality experience for online viewers. Seating will be available on a first-come, first-served basis.

This session was hosted in partnership with the Institute for International Economic Policy, International Development Studies and Master’s in International Economic Policy programs at the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs. 

Two Generations of Trailblazing Chinese American Women At The Asian Development Bank

Monday, April 25, 2022
5:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. EDT

Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Elliott School of International Affair
and Zoom

How will the Asian Development Bank address the long-term challenges of poverty and climate change amidst evolving regional geopolitics and post-pandemic economic recovery? Please join us for a special conversation with Ambassador Chantale Wong as she begins her tenure as US Director of the Asian Development Bank, with a special appearance by her mentor and predecessor Ambassador Linda Tsao Yang. Both women have blazed new trails: Linda Tsao Yang, US Executive Director to the ADB from 1993-99, was the first woman and minority representative of the US on the board of a multilateral financial institute, while Chantale Wong is the first out LGBTQ+ person of color to be appointed to an ambassador-level position in the United States. Ambassador Julia Chang Bloch, USCET’s Executive Chair and a trailblazer in her own right as the first US Ambassador of Asian descent, will lead the conversation, touching on themes of mentorship, overcoming barriers, the role of the US at the ADB, and sustainable recovery amidst the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Audience members in-person and online were invited to take part in a lively Q&A session at the event.

This was a co-sponsored event with US-China Education Trust (USCET).

Speakers: 

linda tsao yang Linda Tsao Yang is an ambassador (retired). Linda Tsao Yang served as U.S. Executive Director to the board of the Asian Development Bank in Manila from 1993 to1999. She was appointed by President Clinton and confirmed by the Senate in 1993, the first woman and the first minority to represent the United States on the board of a multilateral financial institution. Yang Is Chair Emerita of the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) based in Hong Kong which she chaired from 2001 to 2014. From 2003 to 2010, she served on the board of the Bank of China (Hong Kong) – one of three banknote issuing banks in Hong Kong – as an independent non-executive director. Earlier in her career, she was the first minority appointed to serve as California’s Savings and Loan Commissioner; she was also the first minority appointed to the board of the California Public Employees Retirement System ( CalPERS), the largest public pension fund in the United States. She was Vice-Chairman of the Investment Committee of the board and was unanimously elected by her fellow board members to the position of Vice President of the Board.Yang was an invited panelist on International Economy at the economic summit led by then President-elect Clinton in Little Rock, Arkansas in December 1992.

chantale wong Chantale Wong has had a long and distinguished career in public service, currently serving as the US Executive Director to the Asian Development Bank in Manila. Wong is the first out lesbian and first LGBTQ+ person of color appointed to an ambassador-level position in US history, confirmed by the senate in February 2022. Previously, Wong was appointed by President Obama to serve as Vice President for Administration and Finance, and Chief Financial Officer at the Millenium Challenge Corporation (MCC). Earlier in her career, Wong has held leadership positions at the Office of Management and Budget, Departments of Treasury and Interior, and the Environmental Protection Agency, in addition to NASA. Chantale joined the staff of the Asian Development Bank in 1999 as an environmental specialist to ensure the Bank’s assessments complied with their environmental and social policies. She led development and publication of ADB’s first Asian Environment Outlook (2001), and was subsequently appointed by President Bill Clinton to its Board of Directors, representing the US as the Alternate Executive Director to oversee operations. Wong was the founding chair of the Conference on Asian Pacific American Leadership (CAPAL), an organization dedicated to encouraging careers in public service by providing training, workshops, mentors, and work opportunities for young AAPIs.

Moderator: 

julia chang blochJulia Chang Bloch is founding president of the US-China Education Trust. She was the first US ambassador of Asian descent in US history. She has had an extensive career in international affairs and government service, beginning in 1964 as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Sabah, Malaysia and culminating as U.S. Ambassador to the Kingdom of Nepal in 1989. From 1981 to 1988, Ambassador Bloch served at the U.S. Agency for International Development as Assistant Administrator of Food for Peace and Voluntary Assistance and as Assistant Administrator for Asia and the Near East, positions appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. She also was the Chief Minority Counsel to a Senate Select Committee; a Senate professional staff member; the Deputy Director of the Office of African Affairs at the U.S. Information Agency; a Fellow of the Institute of Politics at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, and an Associate of the U.S.- Japan Relations Program of the Center for International Affairs at Harvard.

 

The Vortex Book Launch Event

Monday, April 25th, 2022
12:00 – 1:30 p.m. ET
via Zoom

Picture of Jason and Scott holding their newbook

IIEP was to invite you to this event, co-sponsored by the Humanitarian Action Initiative (HAI), the Master of Arts in International Affairs (MAIA) program at the Elliott School, and the Sigur Center for Asian Studies. Authors Jason Miklian and Scott Carney presented and hosted a discussion of their new book, The Vortex: A True Story of History’s Deadliest Storm, an Unspeakable War and Liberation. It is a timely book that tells the story how a storm that killed half a million people in 1970 is an omen for the worst case scenarios of our collective climate change nightmare. This incredible true story is told through the eyes of a soccer star turned soldier, a Miami weatherman, a drunken and genocidal President, a Boston teacher turned aid worker and a student turned revolutionary who all played crucial roles in Bangladesh’s birth. Drawing upon more than 1,000 sources and interviews compiled over five years, The Vortex shows why every new megastorm is a roll of the dice that can obliterate existing political order and rip societies into conflict.

Professors Marcus D. King and Deepa Ollapally (George Washington University) provided discussant remarks.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Jason MiklianJason Miklian, Ph.D., is a Senior Researcher at the Centre for Development and Environment, University of Oslo. Miklian has published over 60 academic and policy works on issues of conflict and crisis, based on extensive fieldwork in Bangladesh, Colombia, India, and the Congo. He serves on the United Nations Expert Panel on Business and Human Rights, has won several awards for his academic publications, and serves as an expert resource for various government knowledge banks in the US, UK, EU and Norway. Miklian has also written for or been cited in an expert capacity by the New York Times, BBC, The Economist, Washington Post, Financial Times, France 24, The Guardian, The Hindu (India) and NPR.

 

Picture of Scott CarneyScott Carney is an investigative journalist and anthropologist, as well as the author of the New York Times bestseller What Doesn’t Kill Us. He spent six years living in South Asia as a contributing editor for WIRED and writer for Mother Jones, NPR, Discover Magazine, Fast Company, Men’s Journal, and many other publications. His other books include The Red Market, The Enlightenment Trap and The Wedge. He is the founder of Foxtopus Ink, a Denver-based media company.

 

 

About the Discussants:

Deepa OllapallyPicture of Deepa Ollapally is is a political scientist specializing in Indian foreign policy, India-China relations, and Asian regional and maritime security. She is Research Professor of International Affairs and the Associate Director of the Sigur Center. She also directs the Rising Powers Initiative, a major research program that tracks and analyzes foreign policy debates in aspiring powers of Asia and Eurasia. Dr. Ollapally is currently working on a funded book, Big Power Competition for Influence in the Indian Ocean Region, which assesses the shifting patterns of geopolitical influence by major powers in the region since 2005 and the drivers of these changes. She is the author of five books including Worldviews of Aspiring Powers (Oxford, 2012) and The Politics of Extremism in South Asia (Cambridge, 2008). Her most recent books are two edited volumes, Energy Security in Asia and Eurasia (Routledge, 2017), and Nuclear Debates in Asia: The Role of Geopolitics and Domestic Processes (Rowman & Littlefield, 2016). Dr. Ollapally has received grants from the Carnegie Corporation, MacArthur Foundation, Smith Richardson Foundation, Ford Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Asia Foundation for projects related to India and Asia. Previously, she was Associate Professor at Swarthmore College and has been a Visiting Professor at Kings College, London and at Columbia University. Dr. Ollapally also held senior positions in the policy world including the US Institute of Peace, Washington DC and the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore, India. She is a frequent commentator in the media, including appearances on CNN, BBC, CBS, Diane Rehm Show and Reuters TV. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University.

 

Marcus D. KingPicture of Marcus King is a John O. Rankin Associate Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Elliott School’s Master of Arts in International Affairs Program. King previously served as Director of Research and Associate Research Professor. As a professor, Dr. King draws on experience in public service, research, and the private sector. He joined the Elliott School in 2011 from the research staff of CNA Corporation’s Center for Naval Analyses where he directed studies on security, resilience, and adaptation aspects of climate change. He was also Project Director for the CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB), an elite group of retired admirals and generals constituted to provide recommendations and reports on how these topics affect U.S. national security. From 2003 to 2006, King was Research Director of the Sustainable Energy Institute; and Senior Manager for Energy and Security Programs at a private consultancy. During the Administration of President William Clinton, he held Presidential appointments in the Office of the Secretary of Defense where he represented the United States for negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Office of the Secretary of Energy where he directly supported the Deputy Secretary and participated in negotiations on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy with the Russian Federation. Dr. King served as a globalization planning fellow in Georgetown University’s Office of the President and as an adjunct assistant professor. He is a member of the Center for Climate and Security’s Advisory Board. His present research focuses on identifying ties between water scarcity and large-scale violence. King is a regular contributor to radio, television and print media.

 

Capitol Economics Journal Launch Party

Wednesday, April 20, 2022
6:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. EDT

Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Elliott School of International Affairs

The Capitol Economics Review and the Undergraduate Economics Society are excited to present the Capitol Economics Journal Launch Party!

This party will celebrate the efforts of all the authors and editorial staff who were involved in preparing this year’s edition of the CEJ. The event will feature opening remarks from IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh and Editor-in-Chief of the Capitol Economics Review Elijah Karshner. Following the opening remarks, the event will move into a poster session, with the opportunity to speak directly with the authors about their articles! This event is a great opportunity to talk economics with other members of the GW Economics community, and to learn more about the economics research going on at the undergraduate level.

Pre-purchased physical copies of CEJ will be distributed at the event. To reserve your copy, please fill out the form here: https://forms.gle/7WQKsHiAuscDNgp1A

Light refreshments will be provided. This event is co-sponsored by the Institute for International Economic Policy.

Featured Research

The Effect of Climate Change on the Pricing and Transactional Volume of Real Estate
By Haley Curtis

Unbalanced Unpaid Work: Women’s Household Work and the Persistence of the Gender Pay Gap
By Robin Gloss​

The Effects of the Quantitative Easing on Income Inequality in Japan
By David Leo

Asymmetric Effect of Fluctuating Oil Prices on Remittance Inflows to the Philippines
By Shir Levy

Do Overseas Development Assistance and Foreign Direct Investment Impact the Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Developing Countries?
By Matthew Stauder

Welcoming Remarks

Jay Shambaugh is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Before that, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Elijah Karshner is the Editor-in-Chief of the Capitol Economics Review at the Undergraduate Economics Society. He is a senior at the Elliott School of International Affairs, with majors in International Affairs and Economics and concentrations in Asia and International Development. He is particularly interested in U.S.-China relations, focusing on trade and diplomatic affairs. He has worked at the Institute for International Economic Policy on the Digital Communications team and as a research assistant.

GW Students, Faculty, and Staff are welcome to attend this event in person at the address below:

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Family Commons, Suite 602
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

Alumni, Guests, and General Public are also welcome to attend the event in person. We require that guests follow the George Washington University Visitor guidelines.

Are China and India Likely to Miss the Convergence?

Wednesday, April 13th, 2022
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. EDT / 6:30 – 8:00 p.m. IST
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the sixth webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate in a series of important discussions.

This event featured Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs and Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development, and Kalpana Kochhar, Director of Development Policy and Finance at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, provided discussant remarks.

The event reflected on the development experiences, similar and different, of China and India, as well as their prospects going forward.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

About the Speaker:

picture_of_Arvind_SubramanianArvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Government of India between 2014 and 2018, is now Senior Fellow, Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs and Distinguished Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development. Previously, he was Professor at Ashoka University (2020-21), taught at the Harvard Kennedy School (2018-2020), and was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (2011-2014). Foreign Policy magazine named him as one of the world’s top 100 global thinkers in 2011. As CEA, he oversaw the publication of the annual Economic Survey of India, which became a widely read document on Indian economic policy and development. For example, the 2018 Survey had 20 million views from over 190 countries in its first year of publication. Among the major ideas and policies he initiated and helped implement were a simplified goods and services tax (GST), attempts to tackle the Twin Balance Sheet challenge, creating the financial and digital platform for connectivity (the so-called JAM trinity), charting a new fiscal framework, and Universal Basic Income. Announcing his departure as CEA, the former Finance Minister, Mr. Arun Jaitley wrote a Facebook post, Thank You, Arvind. His award-winning book Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance was published in September 2011 and had printed 130,000 copies world-wide in four languages. His latest, best-selling book, reflecting on his time in India, “Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy,” was published by Penguin Random House in December 2018.

Joshua Felman is currently the head of JH Consulting, providing economic advice to academics and policy practitioners. Before that, he was for many years a senior official at the IMF, where he specialized in Asia and especially India. 

His familiarity with India started in the 1980s, when he first began analyzing the economy, as it started to open up to the outside world. During the boom of the mid-2000s, he moved to Delhi to take charge of the IMF’s India office. And in 2015 he returned to India to work for several years in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser in the Ministry of Finance.

Mr. Felman also has extensive familiarity with crises. During the East Asian crisis, he was posted to the IMF’s Jakarta office, where he worked closely with the authorities as they reconstructed a shattered financial system, following the collapse of more than 200 banks. Then, he led the IMF’s operations in the Philippines, as they sought to overcome the lingering effects of the crisis. And after that he led the IMF’s work in Korea, when that country was suffering from a household debt crisis.

Following the Global Financial Crisis, he was appointed Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department, where he worked closely with Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, analyzing the implications for the global economy — and also for our understanding of economics.

Mr. Felman did his graduate work at Oxford University in England.

About the Discussants:

picture_of_kalpana_kochharDr. Kalpana Kochhar is Director, Development Policy and Finance at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Prior to taking this position, she spent 33 years at the IMF, ending her career there as the Director of the Human Resources Department of the IMF between 2016 and 2021. She has also held positions as Deputy Director in the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF where she worked on India, China, Korea, Japan and several other Asian countries, and in the Strategy, Policy and Review Department where she launched the IMF’s work on the macroeconomic implications of gender inequality and women’s economic empowerment. Between 2010 and 2012, she was seconded to the World Bank as the Chief Economist for the South Asia Region of the World Bank. Ms. Kochhar’s research interests and publications have been on emerging markets including India and China, and jobs and inclusive growth, gender and inequality issues, structural reforms, and regional integration in South Asia. She holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Economics from Brown University and an M.A. in Economics from Delhi School of Economics in India. She has a B.A in Economics from Madras University in India.

David Dollarpicture_of_david_dollar is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar&Sense. He is a leading expert on China’s economy and U.S.-China economic relations. From 2009 to 2013, Dollar was the U.S. Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing, facilitating the macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue between the United States and China. Prior to joining Treasury, Dollar worked 20 years for the World Bank, serving as country director for China and Mongolia, based in Beijing (2004-2009). His other World Bank assignments focused on Asian economies, including South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India. Dollar also worked in the World Bank’s research department. His publications focus on economic reform in China, globalization, and economic growth. He also taught economics at University of California Los Angeles, during which time he spent a semester in Beijing at the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 1986. He has a doctorate in economics from New York University and a bachelor’s in Chinese history and language from Dartmouth College.

Missing migrants: Border Closures as a Labor Supply Shock, joint with Dave Maré and Lynda Sanderson

Tuesday, April 12th, 2022
12:30 – 2:00 p.m. EST
via Zoom

We study the economic impact of the March 2020 closure of the New Zealand border. The border closed in the middle of the fall RSE arrival season, causing seasonal migrants to not enter the country as planned. We identify firms that were expecting workers but the workers did not arrive before the border closure and compare these firms to other firms where the workers arrived just before the border closure. We study the firm-level response to these `missing migrants’. Did affected firms hire other workers? Did wages need to increase to do so? Was productivity lower as a result? We find that firms without migrants employed other workers — a combination of working holiday makers and New Zealand citizens/residents — and did not face lower employment levels. We find no evidence that firms without migrants increased wages for other workers. We find suggestive evidence that firms without migrants faced a productivity loss of up to 8\%, but this result is statistically insignificant.

About the Speaker:

picture_of_Melanie_MortenMelanie Morten is a development economist who focuses on the migration of low-income people. Human mobility has long helped to determine people’s living conditions. Individuals move, both across and within countries, searching for better employment prospects, higher wages, and other opportunities. Beyond impacting individuals’ own outcomes, migration sometimes occurs at such a large scale that it affects the overall organization of economic activity within countries. Her work explores the causes and effects of different types of movement, including internal and international migration, temporary and permanent relocations, and within-city residential movements. She considers both the microeconomic and macroeconomic implications of migration and formulate spatial equilibrium models to understand how impacts in one location may spill over to other areas. Her research has been supported by several grants, including an NSF CAREER award and a Sloan Fellowship.

China’s rebranding campaign during the Covid-19 pandemic: How successful is it?

Friday, April 22, 2022, 

9:30-11 a.m. ET

Lindner Family Commons (in-person) and via Zoom

At this event Dr. Yanzhong Huang will examine China’s efforts to improve its international image and project global influence by looking at three key aspects of the campaign 1) the efforts to promote China’s pandemic response model; 2) its efforts to frame itself as a leader in the provision of global public goods; and 3) its efforts to dispute the Covid-19 origins.

Speaker:

Dr. Yanzhong Huang is a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he directs the Global Health Governance roundtable series. He is also a professor and the director of global health studies at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations, where he developed the first academic concentration among U.S. professional schools of international affairs that explicitly addresses the security and foreign policy aspects of health issues. He is the founding editor of Global Health Governance: The Scholarly Journal for the New Health Security Paradigm.

Dr. Huang has written extensively on China and global health. He is the author of Governing Health in Contemporary China (2013) and Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and Its Challenge to the Chinese State (2020). He has also published numerous reports, journal articles, and book chapters, including articles in Survival, Foreign Affairs, Public Health, Bioterrorism and Biosecurity, and China Leadership Monitor, as well as opinion pieces in the New York Times, the Washington Post, Foreign Policy, and the South China Morning Post, among others. In 2006, he co-authored the first scholarly article that systematically examined China’s soft power.

Dr. Huang has testified before U.S. congressional committees many times and regularly is consulted by major media outlets, the private sector, and governmental and nongovernmental organizations on global health issues and China. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, and a board member of the Institute of Global Health (Georgia). In 2012, InsideJersey listed him as one of the “20 Brainiest People in New Jersey.” He previously was a research associate at the National Asia Research Program, a public intellectuals fellow at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, an associate fellow at the Asia Society, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore, and a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He has taught at Barnard College and Columbia University. He obtained his BA and MA from Fudan University and his PhD from the University of Chicago.

Discussants:

Dr. Zoë McLaren is an Associate Professor in the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and an Affiliate of the Health Econometrics and Data Group at York University. Dr. McLaren is a health economist whose research informs health and economic policy to combat infectious disease epidemics including HIV, tuberculosis and COVID19 in the United States and abroad. She develops rigorous applied statistical approaches to answer important policy questions using real-world data. Her work builds the evidence base in three key research areas: (1) the impact of health and economic policies to fight HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 globally, (2) the relationship between access to health resources and economic outcomes, and (3) the causes of persistent poverty. Dr. McLaren was formerly an Assistant Professor in the Department of Health Management and Policy at the University of Michigan School of Public Health and a Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University Elliot School of International Affairs. She received her Ph.D. in Public Policy and Economics from the University of Michigan and her B.A. from Dartmouth College.

 
Joan Kaufman is the NY–based Senior Director for Academic Programs for the Schwarzman Scholars Program. She is Lecturer in Global Health and Social Medicine at Harvard Medical School and Visiting Professor at Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University where she teaches on global health policy.  Dr. Kaufman is an elected member of the Council on Foreign Relations.   An expert on both China and global health policy, she was the Director of Columbia University’s Global Center for East Asia (Beijing) from 2012-2016 and Associate Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia’s Mailman School of Public Health. From 2002-2010 she was based at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government where she founded and directed the AIDS Public Policy Project.   She was Distinguished Scientist, Senior Lecturer and Associate Director of the Master Program in Health Policy and Management at Brandeis University’s Heller School for Social Policy and Management from 2003-2012.    She was selected as a Radcliffe fellow in residence at Harvard from 2001-2002. She has lived and worked in China for 15 years since 1980 for the United Nations (1980-1984) the Ford Foundation (1996-2001), as the China Team Leader for the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (2002-2012), and Columbia University (2012-2016).   She holds a Doctorate in Public Health from the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, as well as a MA and BA cum laude in Chinese Studies. She serves on the Advisory Boards for Sup China, Uplift International, and several Chinese NGOs, has consulted for many foundations and international organizations and has published widely on global health policy, HIV/AIDS, women’s rights, reproductive health, population, emerging infectious diseases, and civil society with a focus on China.
 
 
This event is part of our China conference series and is cosponsored by the Sigur Center and GW-CIBER.

China’s Irreconcilable Choices on Ukraine

Friday, April 22, 2022,

11 a.m.-12:30 p.m. ET

Lindner Family Commons (in-person) and via Zoom

At this event Evan Feigenbaum will discuss how China bridges the geo-economic and geo-political terrain in its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How does China manage its relationships with the U.S. and Russia? How do they triangulate? How can China simultaneously be an ally to Russia and a stakeholder in the global system? Immediately following his keynote remarks, we’ll hear from discussants from the economic angle and the Eurasian/Russian angle to flesh out other viewpoints and highlight tricky issues. The event will conclude with a robust audience Q&A.

Speaker

Evan A. Feigenbaum is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees research in Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi on a dynamic region encompassing both East Asia and South Asia. He was also the 2019-20 James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia, where he is now a practitioner senior fellow. Initially an academic with a PhD in Chinese politics from Stanford University, Feigenbaum’s career has spanned government service, think tanks, the private sector, and three major regions of Asia. He is the author of three books and monographs, including The United States in the New Asia (CFR, 2009, co-author) and China’s Techno-Warriors: National Security and Strategic Competition from the Nuclear to the Information Age (Stanford University Press, 2003), which was selected by Foreign Affairs as a best book of 2003 on the Asia-Pacific, as well as numerous articles and essays.

Discussants

Michael Moore received his B.A. in liberal arts from the University of Texas at Austin and his M.S. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is Director of the Masters of Arts in International Economic Policy program and has been a faculty member at the Elliott School since receiving his doctorate in 1988. Professor Moore teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in international trade theory and policy as well as international macroeconomics. He also has taught international economics to US diplomats at the Foreign Service Institute and students at the Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques (Sciences-Po) in Paris. He has published in numerous academic journals including the Journal of International Economics, International Trade Journal, Canadian Journal of Economics, Review of International Economics, European Journal of Political Economy, and Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, and has been a contributor to five books. His commentary has appeared in numerous media outlets, including The Washington PostThe Financial Times, CNN, CBC, NPR, and NBC.

 

This event is part of our China conference series and is cosponsored by the Sigur Center and GW-CIBER.

U.S.-China Tension

Friday, April 1, 2022

9:30 a.m
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference takes place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

Since 1949, US–China relations have evolved from tense standoffs to a complex mix of intensifying diplomacy, growing international rivalry, and increasingly intertwined economies. Continued escalation of trade disputes and blame over the spread of the coronavirus are emblematic of a significant hardening of positions that extends well beyond these two issues. The importance of US–China tension in shaping either macroeconomic outcomes or firm-level decisions over a long time span has not been studied empirically, mainly for lack of an indicator that can quantify these tensions. The paper that will be discussed measures the intensity of public concerns over US–China tension and shows that there are adverse economic consequences for both countries due to heightened tensions.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Bo SunBo Sun is a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board. She currently serves as an associated editor of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. She served on the faculty at Guanghua School of Management of Peking University from 2011 to 2014, and taught courses in corporate finance at undergraduate, Masters, MBA, and Ph.D. levels. Her research interests include finance and macroeconomics, with a particular focus on information frictions. Her research has been published in leading academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, International Economic Review, Journal of Economic Literature, and American Economic Journal: Microeconomics. Her research has also been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Brookings, Chicago Booth Review, and Deutsche Bank Research, among other outlets. She was a visiting scholar at the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, World Bank, and Carnegie Mellon University. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Virginia and B.A. in Finance from Peking University.

Mary Lovely (Syracuse and PIIE) will discuss.

Spatial Spillovers from Urban Redevelopments: Evidence from Mumbai’s Textile Mills

Tuesday, March 29th, 2022
12:30 – 2:00 p.m. ET
via Zoom

This paper examines the effects of redeveloping central parts of developing country cities with high-rise, market rate buildings. We exploit a unique policy experiment in Mumbai that suddenly led 15% of central city land occupied by the city’s defunct textile mills to be redeveloped into high-rises during the 2000s. To measure the spatial spillovers from this new construction, we digitize a host of new spatially disaggregated administrative data and use machine vision and text classification techniques to measure changing slums and demographic composition nearby. We find evidence of sizable local spillovers that increase formal sector house prices and drive a process of gentrification where slums, low-skill population shares and informal employment all fall. To disentangle the source of these spillovers and quantify indirect and overall welfare effects, we develop and estimate a dynamic quantitative spatial model with informal floorspace, non-homothetic preferences and relocation frictions.

About the Speaker:

picture_of_Nick_TsivanidisNick Tsivanidis is an Assistant Professor in the Haas School of Business and the Department of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. I am also Co-Director of the Cities Research Programme at the International Growth Centre (IGC). His interests lie across urban and spatial economics, development and applied macroeconomics. My research centers on connecting theory with empirics that combine new sources of granular data with natural experiments to learn about the process of urbanization in developing countries.

 

Trade Links: New Rules for a New World

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2022
2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. ET
Lindner Family Commons, 6th floor at the Elliott School
and via Zoom

The World Trade Organization is undergoing an existential crisis. Trade links the world not only through the flow of international commerce in goods, services, and ideas; but also through its economic, environmental, and social impacts. Trade links are supported by a WTO trading system founded on rules established in the 20th century which do not account for all the modern changes in the global economy.

James Bacchus, a founder of the WTO, posits that this global organization can survive and continue to succeed only if the trade links among WTO members are revitalized and reimagined. He explains how to bring the WTO into the twenty-first century, exploring the ways it can be utilized to combat future pandemics and climate change and advance sustainable development, all while continuing to foster free trade.

This event was co-sponsored by the Washington International Trade Association (WITA).

About the Speaker

Picture of James BacchusJames Bacchus is Distinguished University Professor of Global Affairs and Director of the Center for Global Economic and Environmental Opportunity of the University of Central Florida. He was a founding judge and was twice Chairman – the chief judge – of the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization. He is a former Member of the Congress of the United States, from Florida, and a former US trade negotiator. He serves on the United States Leadership Council of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, served on the High-Level Advisory Panel to the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, chaired the global council on governance for sustainability of the World Economic Forum, and chaired the Commission on Trade and Investment Policy of the International Chamber of Commerce. He is adjunct scholar for the Cato Institute in Washington, DC; global fellow of the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Canada; distinguished fellow of the European Institute for International Law and International Relations,  and Pao Yue-Kong University Chair Professor of international law at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China. Professor Bacchus is the author of Trade and Freedom (London: Cameron May, 2004); The Willing World: Shaping and Sharing a Sustainable Global Prosperity (London: Cambridge University Press, 2018), named one of the “Best Books of the Year” by the Financial Times of London; and, with co-author Inu Manak, The Development Dimension: Special and Differential Treatment in Trade (London: Routledge Press, 2021). His new book, Trade Links: New Rules for a New World, will be published by Cambridge University Press in early 2022.

Introductory Remarks

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres is the Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Before joining the Elliott School, she was a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia under the Obama administration. She holds a Ph.D. in South Asian Languages and Civilizations from the University of Chicago.

 

 

About the Moderator

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

GW Students, Faculty, and Staff are welcome to attend this event in person at the address below or via Zoom:

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Family Commons, Suite 602
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

Alumni, Guests, and General Public are also welcome to attend the event in person or via Zoom. We require that guests follow the George Washington University Visitor guidelines.

The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China

Tuesday, March 22 | 4:00 pm – 6:00 pm ET
Format: Hybrid In Person and Virtual Event
In person: Elliott School of International Affairs
The Lindner Family Commons,
Room 602
1957 E St NW, Washington DC 20052
Virtual: via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to a joint Elliott School Book Launch Series and IIEP Policy Forum at GW featuring Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia and current President and CEO of the Asia Society, on his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China. Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres provided welcome remarks. Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, International Affairs, and Political Science David Shambaugh engaged with the Hon. Kevin Rudd in conversation, and there was a lengthy moderated Q&A. Books were available for purchase and signing after the end of the event.

About The Speaker

Kevin Rudd is a former Prime Minister of Australia and current President and CEO of the Asia Society. He became President and CEO of Asia Society in January 2021 and has been president of the Asia Society Policy Institute since January 2015. He served as Australia’s 26th Prime Minister from 2007 to 2010, then as Foreign Minister from 2010 to 2012, before returning as Prime Minister in 2013. He is also a leading international authority on China. He began his career as a China scholar, serving as an Australian diplomat in Beijing before entering Australian politics.

 

 

 

 

About The Moderator

David Shambaugh is an internationally recognized authority and award-winning author on contemporary China and the international relations of Asia. He currently is the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science & International Affairs, and the founding Director of the China Policy Program in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. He was also a formerly a Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at The Brookings Institution and Director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

 

 

Introductory Remarks

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres is the Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Before joining the Elliott School, she was a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia under the Obama administration. She holds a Ph.D. in South Asian Languages and Civilizations from the University of Chicago.

Health in the Social Cost of Carbon: Recent Advances to Fill a Critical Gap

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022
12:00 – 1:00 p.m. ET
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to join the Insitute for International Economic Policy, the Climate and Health Institute, and the Department of Environmental and Occupational Health for a panel discussing “Health in the Social Cost of Carbon: Recent Advances to Fill a Critical Gap.” This event featured speakers Kevin Cromar of NYU, Noah Scovronick of Emory University, and Tamma Carleton of UCSB. IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh provided welcoming remarks, and Climate and Health Institute Director Susan Anenberg moderated the discussion.

The social cost of carbon is commonly used in regulatory cost-benefit analysis to characterize the economic damage that would result from each ton of carbon dioxide emitted. An important cost of greenhouse gas emissions is the profound public health consequences of climate change, including disease and mortality from extreme heat, extreme weather events, worsened air pollution, expanded habitats for disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks, increased aeroallergens, and impacts to water and food supply. Currently, these health consequences are represented in the social cost of carbon in incomplete, indirect, or cursory ways. This panel of leading researchers will describe recent advances to fill this critical gap and ensure that the social cost of carbon adequately reflects the present and future public health burden stemming from a global climate altered by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

About the Speakers:

Kevin Cromar is the Director of the Health, Environment, and Policy Program at the Marron Institute of Urban Management and an Associate Professor of Environmental Medicine and Population Health at New York University Grossman School of Medicine. His research program works at the intersection of scientific research and public policy in order to generate the knowledge needed to improve health and quality of life. He has a BS in Neuroscience from Brigham Young University and an MS and PhD in Environmental Health Science from New York University. 

 

Noah Scovronick is a professor of Environmental Health at the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University. His areas of interest include air pollution, climate and health, and environmental health. He has a BS from Emory University, a MS from University of Cape Town, an MS and a PhD from the London School fo Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

 

 

Picture of Tamma CarletonTamma Carleton is a professor of Economics at the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at UC Santa Barbara, an affiliate of the Climate Impact Lab, a research associate at the Environmental Markets Lab, and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. She joined Bren after a postdoc at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago. She has a PhD in Agricultural & Resource Economics at UC Berkeley, where she was an EPA STAR Fellow and a Doctoral Fellow in the Global Policy Lab at the Goldman School of Public Policy. She is an environmental and resource economist, focusing on questions at the intersection of environmental change and economic development.

 

About the Moderator:

Susan Anenberg is the Director of the Climate and Health Institute and an Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health and of Global Health at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. Dr. Anenberg’s research focuses on the health implications of air pollution and climate change, from local to global scales. She currently serves on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Science Advisory Board and Clean Air Act Advisory Committee, the World Health Organization’s Global Air Pollution and Health Technical Advisory Group, and the National Academy of Science’s Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program. She also serves as Secretary of the GeoHealth section of the American Geophysical Union. Previously, Dr. Anenberg was a Co-Founder and Partner at Environmental Health Analytics, LLC, the Deputy Managing Director for Recommendations at the U.S. Chemical Safety Board, an environmental scientist at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and a senior advisor for clean cookstove initiatives at the U.S. State Department.

Introductory Remarks:

Jay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Measuring Vulnerability to Multidimensional Poverty with Bayesian Network Classifiers

Monday, March 7th, 2022
11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. ET
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to a joint virtual event with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) on March 7, 2022 with panelist remarks from Mauricio Gallardo, Associate Professor of Econometrics and Statistical Methods at Universidad Católica del Norte in Chile.

Bayesian network methods have recently gained great popularity in machine learning literature and applications to model uncertainty in complex phenomena that include relationships between multiple random variables. However, these models are not commonly applied in economics and development studies. Here, we introduce the Bayesian network classifier models to estimate the probability of a person to be welfare deprived in one and multiple dimensions. These probabilities are then used for measuring vulnerability to multidimensional poverty (VMP) in four alternative measurement frameworks. Currently, two of them can be found in the literature, but have been estimated with Probit and Logit models, which are unidimensional strategies. Instead of that, in this study, we follow a multidimensional strategy to solve an estimation problem that is multidimensional in nature. Two new VMP measurement procedures based on Bayesian network classifiers estimates are also introduced in this article. We illustrate the four estimation procedures using the household survey and the census data from Chile 2017. A 5-fold cross-validation exercise verifies a high predictive performance of these Bayesian network classifier models, with the highest accuracy being that of one of the new measurements that we put forward. Our findings reveal that the Bayesian network classifier models offer an adequate alternative to face the policy challenge of measuring vulnerability to multidimensional poverty.

 

About the Speaker

Mauricio Gallardo is Associate Professor at Universidad Católica del Norte in Chile where he teaches Econometrics and Statistical Methods. He holds a master’s degree in Philosophy from Saint Petersburg State University in Russia, a master’s degree in Economics from Pontificia Universidad Católica in Chile, and a Ph.D. in Economics from Universidad Nacional de La Plata in Argentina. Before entering the academy, he worked for the Statistical Division at the Central Bank of Chile. He has also worked providing technical assistance to international organizations on statistical issues. His research interests are related to poverty, vulnerability, and inequality of opportunities.

About the Discussant

Stefan Sperlich made his diploma in mathematics at the University of Göttingen and holds a PhD in economics from the Humboldt University of Berlin. From 1998 to 2006 he was Professor for statistics at the University Carlos III de Madrid, from 2006 to 2010 chair of econometrics at the University of Göttingen, and is since 2010 professor for statistics and econometrics at the University of Geneva. His research interests are ranging from nonparametric statistics over small area statistics to empirical economics, in particular impact evaluation methods. He has been working since about 15 years as consultant for regional, national and international institutions, participated in development programs like EUROSOCIAL, is cofounder of the research center ‘Poverty, Equity and Growth in Developing Countries’ at the University of Göttingen, and is research fellow at the Center for Evaluation and Development (Mannheim, Germany). He published in various top ranked scientific journals of different fields and was awarded with the Koopmans econometric theory prize (among others).

About the Series

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as race, ethnicity, gender, and caste, the statistical capacity of nations, social protection, the use of geospatial mapping in tracking poverty, poverty and refugees, and evaluating whether we’re on track to meet UN SDG Goal #1. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 11 a.m. EST. They will be hosted by IIEP Professor James Foster and are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

 

 

 

 

Looking for Balanced Growth in China: Insights from the latest IMF Staff report

Friday, March 4th, 2022
9:30 – 11:00 a.m. ET
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the fourth event in the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.

China rebounded strongly from the pandemic, but growth is losing momentum while remaining overly dependent on support from investment and exports. This imperils the nation’s long-sought transition to sustained high-quality growth that’s balanced, inclusive and green.

While China’s many challenges have no easy answer, the key message of the IMF’s annual Article IV review of the economy is that rebalancing toward a more consumption-based model will boost growth prospects in the short term and deliver high-quality expansion in the long run. Importantly, it will also help bring the country closer to achieving its climate goal of carbon neutrality before 2060.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Helge BergerHelge Berger is an Assistant Director in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. He is also an adjunct professor of monetary economics at Free University of Berlin. He was educated in Munich, Germany, where he received his Ph.D. and the venia legendi for economics. Previously, he taught at Princeton University as a John Foster Dulles Visiting Lecturer, helped to coordinate the Munich-based CESifo network as its research director, and served as full professor (tenured) at Free University Berlin. At the IMF, he has worked in the Research and European Departments.

 

Picture of Wenjie ChenWenjie Chen is a senior economist on the IMF’s China team. Prior to that, she worked in the Research Department, where she was part of the World Economic Outlook team. She has also worked in the African Department on South Africa and South Sudan. Before joining the IMF, Wenjie worked as a professor at George Washington University School of Business and Elliott School of International Affairs. She received her MA and PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan.

 

About the Discussant:

Picture of Chao WeiChao Wei is an associate professor of economics at the George Washington University who previously taught at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She was the 2010-2011 Economic Policy Fellow at the Congressional Budget Office. Her primary research areas are: Macroeconomics, Labor Economics, Financial Economics, China Economy, and Energy and Environmental Economics. She has published papers, including at the top journal of the economics field, on the impact of energy price shocks on the stock market, the effect of personal and corporate income taxes on asset returns, and the endogenous determination of gasoline use and vehicle fuel efficiency. Her recent research focuses on the relationship between family structure and parental human capital investment, marital and labor supply behaviors of older adults, and the trade-off between stimulus and environmental objectives in the green stimulus programs. She holds degrees from Fudan University (BA), Columbia University (M.A.) and Stanford University (Ph.D.).

About the Moderator:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Understanding Poverty Dynamics and the Impact of the Pandemic

Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022
8:30 – 10:00 a.m. EST / 7:00 – 8:30 p.m. IST
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the sixth webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

This event featured Professor Anirudh Krishna of Duke University to discuss “Understanding Poverty Dynamics and the Impact of the Pandemic.” Dr. Sekhar Bonu (NITI Aayog, India) and Christian Oldiges (UNDP) provided discussant remarks.

In this talk, Professor Anirudh Krishna discussed how income- and consumption-based measures are handy but provide an ephemeral and incomplete assessment of people’s underlying poverty status. Measures based on assets and capabilities more reliably reflect people’s structural situations, providing a better handle on sustained earning ability. He examined changes in longer-term poverty over the Covid-19 pandemic using the Stages-of-Progress method. He selected locations where he had collected household-level data several years earlier. On-the-ground surveys in one rural part undertaken in July and August 2021 show that while households’ incomes fell sharply, there was no accretion of longer-term poverty. In urban slums, however, structural poverty increased; assets and capabilities are considerably eroded. Mounting the appropriate response requires a fine-grained approach; because of differences in local economies, state and national averages are misleading.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

Abstract: Income- and consumption-based measures are handy but provide an ephemeral and incomplete assessment of people’s underlying poverty status. Measures based on assets and capabilities more reliably reflect people’s structural situations, providing a better handle on sustained earning ability. We examine changes in longer-term poverty over the Covid-19 pandemic using the Stages-of-Progress method. We select locations where we had collected household-level data several years earlier. On-the-ground surveys in one rural part undertaken in July and August 2021 show that while households’ incomes fell sharply, there was no accretion of longer-term poverty. In urban slums, however, structural poverty increased; assets and capabilities are considerably eroded. Mounting the appropriate response requires a fine-grained approach; because of differences in local economies, state and national averages are misleading.

About the Speaker

Picture of Anirudh KrishnaAnirudh Krishna (PhD in Government, Cornell University, 2000; Master’s in Economics, Delhi University, 1980) is the Edgar T. Thompson Professor of Public Policy and Political Science at Duke University. His research of the past 25 years investigates how poor communities and individuals cope with the structural and personal constraints that result in poverty and powerlessness. Krishna has written more than seventy journal articles, and has eight books, including One Illness Away: Why People Become Poor and How they Escape Poverty and The Broken Ladder: The Paradox and the Potential of India’s One-Billion. For this body of work, Krishna was awarded an honorary doctorate by Uppsala University, Sweden, and received other academic awards. Before returning to academia, Krishna spent 14 years with the Indian Administrative Service, managing diverse rural and urban development initiatives. He has consulted with the World Bank, the United Nations, national governments, and non-government organizations.

About the Discussants

Dr. Sekhar Bonu joined as the Director General of Development Monitoring and Evaluation Office (DMEO) in April 2019. The Government established DMEO in September 2015 as an attached office of the NITI Aayog to fulfil the monitoring and evaluation mandates assigned to NITI Aayog. Before joining NITI Aayog, Dr. Bonu worked with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Manila for 15 years. At ADB, he worked in health, urban infrastructure development and regional cooperation, mainly in South Asia. Dr. Bonu worked in the Indian Administrative Services and served as a civil servant in Rajasthan between 1987-2003, among others, as district magistrate, director of primary and secondary education, chief executive officer of state-owned Enterprises. Dr. Sekhar Bonu has a PhD from Johns Hopkins University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst charter holder. He has a wide range of research and operational interests and has published in peer-review journals.

Christian Oldiges is a Development Economist, currently serving as Policy Specialist at the Inclusive Growth team of UNDP/BPPS, New York. He brings more than 10 years of experience in the fields of development economics, policy advocacy and social protection. Previously, as Director of Policy Research at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), University of Oxford, he has been directly involved in developing national MPIs with governments in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In postdoctoral studies at Oxford, he has written about how 270 million people moved out of multidimensional poverty in India within a decade, poverty reduction and its interlinkages with COVID-19, migration, and conflict, as well as on workfare programs and food security in India. He holds a PhD in Economics (Heidelberg University, Germany) and has studied at Hindu College and the Delhi School of Economics, Delhi University.

Regulating Conglomerates: Evidence from an Energy Conservation Program in China

Tuesday, March 1st, 2022
12:30-2:00 EST
on Zoom

Paper Abstract: We study a prominent energy regulation affecting large Chinese manufacturers that are part of broader conglomerates. Using detailed firm-level data and difference-in-differences research designs, we show that regulated firms cut output and shifted some production to unregulated firms in the same conglomerate instead of improving their energy efficiency. To account for conglomerate and market spillovers, we interpret these results through the lens of an industry equilibrium model featuring conglomerate production. We quantify that a $160 social cost of carbon rationalizes the policy and that alternative policies that exploit public information on business networks can increase aggregate energy savings by 10%.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Daniel Yi XuDaniel Yi Xu is a Professor of Economics at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Co-editor of the Review of Economics and Statistics. He is also the associate editor of the Rand Journal of Economics and AEJ: Applied. His research focus tends to focus on Productivity/Innovation, International Trade, and Industrial Organization. His website: https://sites.google.com/site/yixusite/

 

Black Politicians During Reconstruction: Impacts and Backlashes

Monday, February 28th, 2022
12:30 – 2:00 p.m. ET
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the 17th webinar of the “Facing Inequality” series, hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy and co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series. In this webinar, noted economic historian Trevon Logan discussed his research on “Black Politicians During Reconstruction: Impacts and Backlashes.” Shari Eli, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto, provided discussant remarks, and IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh moderated the discussion.

Racial economic inequality in the United States has substantial roots in history, including not just race-based slavery, but also the failure to move to more equal footing after the Civil War. In this event, Trevon Logan will present results from two papers: “Do Black Politicians Matter?” and “Whitelashing: Black Politicians, Taxes, and Violence.” In this work, he demonstrates the important impact of Black politicians after the war in the Reconstruction South; their presence increased tax revenue and land tenancy, and decreased the black-white literacy gap. He also finds that such increases in tax revenue were followed by a rise in violence against Black politicians, pushing back on the efficacy of these policymakers.

The “Facing Inequality” virtual series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe – especially those revealed by the current COVID-19 pandemic. It brings together historians, economists, sociologists, political scientists, and epidemiologists, within the academy and without, to present work and discuss ideas that can facilitate new interdisciplinary approaches to the problem of inequality. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

About the Speaker:

Trevon LoganTrevon Logan is the Hazel C. Youngberg Distinguished Professor of Economics at The Ohio State University. Professor Logan specializes in economic history, economic demography and applied microeconomics. His research in economic history concerns the development of living standards measures that can be used to directly assess the question of how the human condition has changed over time. He applies the techniques of contemporary living standard measurements to the past as a means of deriving consistent estimates of well-being over time. Most of his historical work uses historical household surveys, but also includes some new data to look at topics such as the returns to education in the early twentieth century, the formation of tastes, and the allocation of resources within the household. He is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.

About the Discussant:

Shari EliShari Eli is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Her fields of research are economic history, health economics and demography. One section of her research explores the ways in which individuals of low socioeconomic status used cash transfers to improve their health status over the course of the lifecycle. Another section explores the intergenerational persistence of welfare receipt as well as the relationship between social assistance and marriage decisions.

 

John J. Clegg is an historical sociologist working on the roots of mass incarceration in the United States and the comparative political economy of slavery and emancipation in the Atlantic world.

His dissertation, “From Slavery to Jim Crow: Essays on the Political Economy of Racial Capitalism” (NYU 2018) traced the evolution of forms of labor control and racialization across America’s pivotal decade of Civil War and emancipation.

He is currently working on a comprehensive crowd-sourced database of African American Civil War soldiers as well as a large scale research project on the political economy of mass incarceration.

His work has appeared in The Cambridge Journal of Economics, Social Science History, Critical Historical StudiesGlobal Labor JournalThe Brooklyn Rail, The SAGE Handbook of Frankfurt School Critical Theory and The Best American Non-required Reading 2016.

About the Moderator:

Jay ShambaPicture of Jay Shambaughugh is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Multidimensional Poverty in Brazil in the Early 21st Century – Evidence from the Demographic Census

Monday, February 28th, 2022
11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. ET
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to a joint virtual event with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) on February 28, 2022 with panelist remarks from Adriana Stankiewicz Serra, a Research Associate at the Institute of Economics of the University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Brazil, and discussant remarks from Iñaki Permanyer, an ICREA Research Professor working at the Center for Demographic Studies (CED) at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.

The paper examines multidimensional poverty in Brazil in 2000 and 2010, based on the microdata of the Demographic Censuses. Our analysis is disaggregated into five classes of municipalities according to their degree of urbanisation and remoteness, highlighting wide rural–urban inequalities in the levels and dynamics of poverty. We compare estimates of traditional monetary poverty with multidimensional poverty measures based on two methods: (i) the Alkire-Foster counting identification approach; and (ii) the Permanyer two-stage poverty identification approach. The two-stage approach introduces the concepts of complementarity/substitutability within and across poverty dimensions, which enables a more precise identification of the population targeted by anti-poverty policies. All methods highlight substantial progress in poverty alleviation. In absolute terms, the reduction in the incidence of multidimensional poverty was significantly larger in the initially poorest areas—rural and intermediate municipalities, as well as those in the North and North–East regions. Important advances were made in standard of living, especially in the access to electricity, durable consumer goods and private bathrooms in the households in rural and intermediate municipalities. However, remote municipalities remain relatively poorer from any perspective, facing more difficulties in reducing monetary poverty.

About the Speaker

Adriana Stankiewicz Serra is a Research Associate at the Institute of Economics of the University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Brazil.

 

 

 

About the Discussant 

Iñaki Permanyer, an ICREA Research Professor working at the Center for Demographic Studies (CED) at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.

 

 

 

 

 

India at 75: Systemic Challenges and the Path Ahead

Wednesday, February 23rd, 2022
12:00 – 1:30 p.m. ET
via Zoom

With India — one fifth of humanity and the world’s largest democracy — completing 75 years of independence, it is not only a time for reflection but also a time to take bold actions for an inclusive, sustainable, and prosperous future. The shadow of COVID-19 looms large over the economy despite some signs of economic recovery. The pandemic has exposed major structural weaknesses in the economy as well as its governance. Beyond the pandemic, other major systemic challenges – climate change, disruptive technology, rising inequality, and rising majoritarianism — merit urgent attention.

For India, doing more of the same will yield results we have become familiar with – higher inequality, poor education and health outcomes, high youth unemployment, weak investment growth, diminishing prospects in agriculture and industry, and a problematic banking sector. To tackle the challenges, India needs fundamental change across a range of areas – human capital, technology, agriculture, finance, trade, public-service delivery, and more. New ideas and strategies are needed.

The seminar discussed how India can use the next twenty-five years to restructure its economy, rejuvenate its democratic energy, and unshackle its potential. 

The speakers in this webinar were Ravinder Kaur (University of Copenhagen) and Ajay Chhibber (GWU and Atlantic Council), and was moderated by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma, with welcoming remarks by IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh.

This event was cosponsored by the Sigur Center.

 

About the Speakers:

Picture of Ravinder KaurRavinder Kaur is a historian of contemporary India. She is Associate Professor of Modern South Asian Studies and the Director of the Centre of Global South Asian Studies at the University of Copenhagen. Her core research focuses on the processes of capitalist transformations in twenty-first-century India. This is the subject of her most recent book Brand New Nation: Capitalist Dreams and Nationalist Designs in Twenty-First-Century India (Stanford University Press, 2020). This work was selected as the “Financial Times Best Book of the Year” in 2020 and longlisted for the “Kamaladevi Chattopadhyay NIF Book Prize” in 2021. She is also the author of Since 1947: Partition Narratives among the Punjabi Migrants of Delhi (Oxford University Press, 2007; 2nd edition, 2018).

Picture of Ajay ChhibberAjay Chhibber is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He was the first Director General, Independent Evaluation Office, India, and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the NIPFP. He served as Assistant Secretary General, UN, and Assistant Administrator, UNDP. At the World Bank he was the Country Director in Turkey and Vietnam, and Director of the 1997 World Development Report. He has a PhD from Stanford University, an MA from the Delhi School of Economics and was awarded the David Rajaram Prize for best all-rounder at St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University.

Ajay is the co-author, along with Salman Anees Soz, of the recently published book Unshackling India: Hard Truths and Clear Choices for Economic Revival (HarperCollins, 2022). Unshackling India examines the question: Can India use the next twenty-five years, when it will reach the hundredth year of independence, to not only restructure its economy but rejuvenate its democratic energy, unshackle its potential, and become a genuinely developed economy by 2047? The book argues that India can foster a prosperous and inclusive economy if it sets its mind to it, acknowledges the hard truths and lays out the clear choices and new ideas India must adopt towards that end.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, Sunil was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Sunil has a Ph.D. and a M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. He has published widely on economic and financial topics, and his current interests include governance, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Welcoming Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

 

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of wellbeing – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

This event will be co-sponsored by the Sigur Center.

 

Trade Shocks and Supply Chains: What is Happening to the WTO and Globalization?

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022
12:30 – 1:30 p.m. EST/6:30 – 7:30 p.m. CET
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to join the Insitute for International Economic Policy for a webinar featuring the Chief Economist of the WTO Bob Koopman discussing “Trade Shocks and Supply Chains: What is Happening to the WTO and Globalization?” Prof. Michael Moore moderated and IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh provided welcoming remarks. This event was in partnership with the GW Department of Economics Trade and Development Workshop organized by Yingyan Zhao and Remi Jedwab.

Since 2016 international trade has been subjected to increased geo-political uncertainty and more recently a major global health shock.  How has the WTO and globalization responded?  The initial Trump administration policy shocks resulted in mainly higher prices and trade diversion.  The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a number of restrictive trade policies mainly due to health policy restrictions, but also substantial fiscal and monetary policy responses in the advanced economies.  The combination of economic and health policies brought about a dramatic compositional shift in demand from in-person services to tradeable goods stressing global and national supply chains.  How has the global trading system responded?  What role, if any, will globalization play in the future on the Phillips curve and inflation?  These are important questions for the global trading system given the prospect of continued global health challenges and rising climate challenges.

 

About the Speaker:

Picture of Bob KoopmanBob Koopman is currently the Chief Economist of the World Trade Organization and an Adjunct Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva.  At the WTO Bob serves as Chief Economic Counsellor to the Director-General, and provides the WTO Secretariat and Member Countries with analysis and information that promotes a deeper understanding of trade and trade policy’s role in economic growth and development. At the Graduate Institute Bob teaches courses on international trade.  Bob also serves as the WTO representative to the G20 Trade and Investment Working Group and the G20 Framework Group.  He is a research associate of CEPR, London, and an editor of the Springer Series on Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling.

Prior to joining the WTO and the Graduate Institute Bob was Chief Operating Officer at the United States International Trade Commission and an Adjunct Professor of Economics at Georgetown University.  Bob has also previously served as Chief Economist at the USITC, Deputy Administrator for social sciences at what is now the National Institute for Food and Agriculture, USDA, and various leadership and analyst positions at the Economic Research Service of USDA.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Michael MooreMichael Moore received his B.A. in liberal arts from the University of Texas at Austin and his M.S. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is Director of the Masters of Arts in International Economic Policy program and has been a faculty member at the Elliott School since receiving his doctorate in 1988. Professor Moore teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in international trade theory and policy as well as international macroeconomics. He also has taught international economics to US diplomats at the Foreign Service Institute and students at the Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques (Sciences-Po) in Paris. He has published in numerous academic journals including the Journal of International Economics, International Trade Journal, Canadian Journal of Economics, Review of International Economics, European Journal of Political Economy, and Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, and has been a contributor to five books. His commentary has appeared in numerous media outlets, including The Washington PostThe Financial Times, CNN, CBC, NPR, and NBC.

Professor Moore has served as Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy, Director of the International Trade and Investment Policy Program, and Associate Dean at the Elliott School.

Professor Moore served as Senior Economist for international trade on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors from 2002 to 2003.

Welcoming Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

 

 

Extending Multidimensional Poverty Identification: From Additive Weights to Minimal Bundles

Monday, February 14th, 2022
11:00 – 12:15 p.m. ET
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to a joint virtual event with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) on Monday, February 14th, 2022. This event featured Sam Jones (UNU-WIDER) presenting “Extending Multidimensional Poverty Identification: From Additive Weights to Minimal Bundles.”

In this event, Sam Jones presented his paper which examines how in the popular class of multidimensional poverty measures introduced by Alkire and Foster (2011), a threshold switching function is used to identify who is multidimensionally poor. This paper shows that the weights and cut-off employed in this procedure are generally not unique and that such functions implicitly assume all groups of deprivation indicators of some fixed size are perfect substitutes. To address these limitations, he shows how the identification procedure can be extended to incorporate any type of positive switching function, represented by the set of minimal deprivation bundles that define a unit as poor. Furthermore, the Banzhaf power index, uniquely defined from the same set of minimal bundles, constitutes a natural and robust metric of the relative importance of each indicator, from which the adjusted headcount can be estimated. He demonstrates the merit of this approach using data from Mozambique, including a decomposition of the adjusted headcount using a ‘one from each dimension’ non-threshold function.

About the Speakers:

Sam Jones is a Research Fellow at UNU-WIDER based in Mozambique, on extended leave from his position as an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen. He is a versatile economist with expertise in microeconomic empirical methods, education, labour markets, development finance (including foreign aid) and policy macroeconomics. Sam’s work has been published in leading journals, such as Journal of Development Economics, World Bank Economic Review, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Food Policy, Social Science & Medicine, Journal of Economic Inequality, World Development, Journal of Development Studies, African Development Review, and Journal of African Economies. Much of Sam’s academic research has focused on sub-Saharan Africa and he has previously worked extensively in Mozambique, spending over ten years as an advisor in the Ministry of Finance.

About the Discussant:

Picture of James FosterJames Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

 

About the Series:

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as race, ethnicity, gender, and caste, the statistical capacity of nations, social protection, the use of geospatial mapping in tracking poverty, poverty and refugees, and evaluating whether we’re on track to meet UN SDG Goal #1. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 11 a.m. EST. They will be hosted by IIEP Professor James Foster and are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

Equitable Action for Climate Change

Wednesday, February 9th, 2022
8:30 – 10:00 a.m. EST / 6:30 – 9:00 p.m. IST
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the fifth webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

This event featured Professor Jyoti K. Parikh, Executive Director of Integrated Research and Action for Development, and Dr. Kirit S. Parikh, Chairman of Integrated Research and Action for Development, to discuss “Equitable Action for Climate Change.” Amar Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at the Global Economy & Development Program at Brookings Institution, and Shreekant Gupta, Professor at the Delhi School of Economics, provided discussant remarks.

In this talk, Professor Jyoti K. Parikh and Dr. Kirit S. Parikh showed that India can live within its 1.50 C budget without much loss in economic growth or consumer welfare. They show this under the assumption that technical progress in renewables and battery costs take place as is expected and that climate finance and access to technology at reasonable cost are available. They discussed various pathways that India can follow with different outcomes and highlight the roles of technology, behavioral change and finance in achieving them.

They further argued that climate science shows that due to lifetimes of over 100 years of CO2, global warming is a function of the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere, i.e. accumulated emissions over a pathway. Thus the responsibility for climate change of different countries should be based on their cumulated emissions since 1990. This should be the indicators for climate discourse and not just on their annual emissions. An annual fee for parking their emissions in the global space can encourage countries to delay their emissions as well as promote negative emissions. A $1 annual fee per tonne of CO2 space occupied from all countries can collect US $700 billion per year. They suggested that if a substantial portion is given back to countries as compensation for their climate action, it should make such a scheme acceptable to all.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Jyoti K. ParikhProfessor Jyoti K. Parikh is the Executive Director of Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi. She was a Member of the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change–India and is a recipient of Nobel Peace Prize awarded to IPCC authors in 2007. She served as the senior professor and Acting Director of Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai 1986-03. IIASA, Austria for 8 years (1980-86, 76-78) and Planning Commission, as senior energy consultant at New Delhi (1978-80).

She has served as energy consultant to the World Bank, the U.S. Department of Energy, EEC, Brussels and UN agencies such as UNIDO, FAO, UNU, and UNESCO, Environment Consultant to UNDP, World Bank and so on. She worked as an advisor to various ministries for Government of India.

She obtained her M.Sc. from University of California, Berkeley, in 1964 and Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from University of Maryland, College Park in 1967. She has guided Sixteen Ph.D./Masters theses in energy, environment and climate change area and given lectures in more than 40 countries around the world. The topics ranged from vulnerability and adaptation of agriculture, forestry, power sector, construction sector, and carbon emission baselines for power, transport, cement and steel sector.

Her publications include nearly 200 project research papers and 25 books and monographs in the area of energy economics, climate change and modeling, energy technology assessment, rural energy, power sector, environment economics, natural resource management and climate change.

Picture of Kirit S. ParikhDr Kirit S. Parikh is the Chairman of Integrated Research and Action for Development, IRADe, a non-profit think tank that works on policies in the areas of energy, climate change, urban issues, agriculture and poverty. He was honored with Padma Bushan (third-highest Civilian Award) by the President of India in March 2009 and shared the Nobel Prize in 2007 given to IPCC authors. He was a Member of the Economic Advisory Councils (EAC) of five Prime Ministers of India, Atal Behari Vajpayee, P.V. Narasimha Rao, Chandra Shekhar, V.P.Singh and Rajiv Gandhi. He was Member of Planning Commission (2004-09) in charge of Energy, Water and Perspective Planning. He was the principal architect of India’s official Integrated Energy Policy.

He obtained his MTech from IIT-Kharagpur, Doctor of Science in Civil Engineering from MIT and also an S.M. in Economics from MIT. He has been a Professor of Economics since 1967 and was the founding Director of IGIDR. He has authored, co-authored and edited 30 books in the areas of planning, energy and power systems, energy modeling and planning, energy policy, energy economics, inclusive growth, and strategies for low carbon development.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Amar BhattacharyaAmar Bhattacharya is a Senior Fellow at the Global Economy and Development Program at Brookings Institution, Visiting Professor in Practice at the London School of Economics and Co-Lead of the Sustainable Growth and Finance Initiative of the New Climate Economy under the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. His focus areas are the global economy, sustainable finance, global governance, and the links between climate and development, including on the role of sustainable infrastructure. He co-led the Independent Expert Group on Climate Finance commissioned by the UN Secretary General. From April 2007 until September 2014 he was Director of the Group of 24, an intergovernmental group of developing country Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. Prior to taking up his position with the G24, Mr. Bhattacharya had a long-standing career in the World Bank. His last position was Senior Advisor to the President on the Bank’s international engagements and Head of the International Policy and Partnership Group. He completed his undergraduate studies at the University of Delhi and Brandeis University and his graduate education at Princeton University.

Picture of Shreekant GuptaProfessor Shreekant Gupta is Professor, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi. He is also President, Indian Society for Ecological Economics and Associate Editor, Indian Economic Review. His areas of research and teaching are environmental economics, public economics, environment and development and climate change economics. In addition to Delhi University he has also taught at the National University of Singapore, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Nazarbayev University.

He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Maryland College Park in 1993, MA Economics from Delhi School of Economics (1982) and BA (Hons) Economics from Shri Ram College of Commerce (1980). He was Fulbright Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2002) and Shastri Fellow at Queens University, Canada (2001).

Prior to joining Delhi School of Economics in 1997, he was Fellow, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi (1993-95) where he headed the Environmental Policy Cell. He has also worked as an environmental economist at the World Bank at Washington DC and as a career economist in the Indian government (Indian Economic Service cadre). His policy experience includes Director of National Institute of Urban Affairs, New Delhi. He is a Lead Author of the forthcoming Sixth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and was also a coordinating lead author of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.

Professor Shreekant Gupta’s Google Scholar profile

Professor Shreekant Gupta’s Delhi School of Economics profile

Epidemics, Inequality and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times

Wednesday, April 27th, 2022

via Zoom

We are pleased to invite you to the third webinar in the 2021-2022 Facing Inequality series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by Covid-19 prompts us to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually believed to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention – but the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This paper covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, usually caused by plague, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution towards the poor, or extermination of the poor.

 

About the Speaker:

picture_of_Guido_AlfaniGuido Alfani is Professor of Economic History at Bocconi University, Milan (Italy). He is also an Affiliated Scholar of the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality, New York (U.S.). An economic and social historian and an historical demographer, he published extensively on inequality and social mobility in the long run, on the history of epidemics (especially of plague) and of famines, and on systems of social alliance. Recent works include The Lion’s Share. Inequality and the Rise of the Fiscal State in Preindustrial Europe (2019, with Matteo Di Tullio) and Famine in European History (2017, with Cormac Ó Gráda). During 2012-16 he was the Principal Investigator of the project EINITE-Economic Inequality across Italy and Europe, 1300-1800 (www.dondena.unibocconi.it/EINITE), funded by the European Research Council (ERC), and from 2017 he is the Principal Investigator of a second ERC project, SMITE-Social Mobility and Inequality across Italy and Europe 1300-1800.

About the Discussants:

Abigail Agresta is Assistant Professor of History at George Washington University.  Her research examines the religious, environmental, and public health history of the medieval Crown of Aragon. Her first monograph, The Keys to Bread and Wine: Faith, Nature, and Infrastructure in Late Medieval Valencia, will be published by Cornell University Press in July 2022.

 

 

Mark Koyama is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a senior scholar at the Mercatus Center. He is an economic historian and has written extensively on topics including comparative state development, religious freedom, and institutional development. His most recent book (with Jared Rubin) is “How the World Became Rich”.

 

 

 

The Distribution of Wealth in Germany 1895-2018

Monday, February 7th, 2022
12:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. ET
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the 16th webinar of the “Facing Inequality” series, hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy. In this webinar, Dr. Charlotte Bartels discussed her current research on “The Distribution of Wealth in Germany, 1895 to 2018.” This event featured Federal Reserve Principal Economist Alice Henriques Volz as a discussant. IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh provided welcoming remarks and moderated the event.

Dr. Bartels presented the first comprehensive study of the long-run evolution of wealth inequality in Germany. Her paper presents a combination of tax data, surveys, national accounts and rich lists used to study wealth and its distribution in Germany from 1895 to 2018. Her research finds that in the long run, the concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 1% has fallen by half, from close to 50% in 1895 to 27% today. Nearly all of this decline was the result of various shocks that occurred between 1914 and 1952. The interwar period as well as World War II and its aftermath stand out as the great equalizers in 20th century German history. Her research also shows that two off-setting trends have shaped the German wealth distribution since unification. Households at the top made substantial capital gains from rising equity valuations that were counterbalanced by large middle-class capital gains from rising house prices and substantial savings. By contrast, the wealth share of the bottom 50% has halved in the past 30 years.

The “Facing Inequality” virtual series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe – especially those revealed by the current COVID-19 pandemic. It brings together historians, economists, sociologists, political scientists, and epidemiologists, within the academy and without, to present work and discuss ideas that can facilitate new interdisciplinary approaches to the problem of inequality. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Charlotte BartelsDr. Charlotte Bartels is a post-doctoral researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). For the academic year 2021/2022, she is a Kennedy fellow at the Center for European Studies at Harvard University. In 2020, she was Visiting Associate Professor at the City University New York (CUNY). Her research interests lie in the fields of public economics, labor economics and economic history. She is particularly concerned with the long-run dynamics of income and wealth distributions and the political consequences of rising inequality. Another focus of her research is the redistributive and stabilizing impact of welfare state institutions and their incentives. She contributes to the German series for the World Inequality Database (WID). Bartels received her Ph.D. in economics from the Freie Universität Berlin.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Alice Henriques VolzAlice Henriques Volz is a principal economist at the Federal Reserve Board. At the Board, Alice works in the Microeconomic Surveys section, which oversees the Survey of Consumer Finances. Her research interests focus on inequality and retirement. Current research projects include retirement preparation across cohorts and the wealth distribution and understanding trends in wealth and income inequality. She received her Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University and a B.A. from University of California at Berkeley.

 

Trevor Jackson is an assistant professor of economic history at George Washington University, where he teaches the history of inequality and economic crisis. He works on early modern European economic history, with an emphasis on inequality and financial crisis. His book manuscript, Impunity and Capitalism: Afterlives of European Financial Crisis, 1680-1830, is under contract with Cambridge University Press. It examines how changes in the scope for prosecutorial discretion, technical complexity, and the international mobility of capital diffused the capacity to act with impunity in the economy across the very long eighteenth century.  The project argues that impunity has shifted from the sole possession of a legally-immune sovereign to a functional characteristic of technically-skilled professional managers of capital, to an imagined quality of markets themselves, such that a constituent element of the modern economic sphere is that within it, great harm can and will happen to great many people, and nobody will be at fault. Dr. Jackson has taught courses on international economic history ranging from the early modern period to the twentieth century, as well as courses on capitalism and inequality, the history of economic crisis, and the history of human rights.  Prior to joining the faculty at the George Washington University, he lectured at the University of California, Berkeley.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

William White on Negative Economic Shocks: Can Our Fragile Democracies Take the Hit?

Wednesday, May 4, 2022
12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

The global economic and financial system has been showing increasing signs of stress for many years, raising the likelihood of harmful “tipping points”. In large part, this has been due to the unintended consequences of well-meaning macroeconomic and regulatory policies. Now we must also confront negative supply shocks that will lower real growth and exacerbate inflationary tendencies over a number of years. Unfortunately, over recent years, many democratic countries have developed political “fault lines” that could now threaten the future of democracy itself. History provides many examples of political regime change triggered by environmental crises, pandemics, and above all economic and financial crises. In principle, these systemic fragilities could still be reduced but, in practice, there are many political obstacles to doing so.

Speakers: 

william whiteWilliam White is currently a Senior Fellow at the C D Howe Institute in Toronto. From 2009 until March 2018, he served as Chair of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD in Paris. Prior to that, he spent fourteen years as Economic Adviser at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel. In that role, he was responsible for all BIS research, data collection, and the organization of meetings for central bankers from around the world. Before joining the BIS in 1994, he was the Deputy Governor responsible for international affairs at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa.

In addition to publishing widely, Mr. White’s other activities have included membership of the Issing Committee, advising Chancellor Merkel on G20 issues. In addition to earlier prizes awarded in Europe, in 2016 Mr. White received the Adam Smith Award, the highest award of the National Association of Business Economists in Washington.

Discussants: 

marthha finnemoreMartha Finnemore is University Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC.  Her research focuses on global governance, international organizations, cybersecurity, ethics, and social theory. She is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a non-resident scholar at the Cyber Policy Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has been a visiting research fellow at the Brookings Institution and Stanford University, and has received fellowships or grants from the MacArthur Foundation, DoD’s Minerva Research Initiative, the Social Science Research Council, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the United States Institute of Peace.

 

alan kirman
Economics professor Alan Kirman at Pantheon Sorbonne University in Paris. Picture taken June 28, 2012. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier (FRANCE)

Alan Kirman is the Director of Studies at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes (EHESS) in Paris, Professor Emeritus at Aix-Marseille University, member of the Institut Universitaire de France, and Chief Adviser to the OECD NAEC (New Approaches to Economic Challenges) initiative. He has a B.A. from Oxford University and a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University.

Alan was formerly a Professor at Johns Hopkins University, Université Libre de Bruxelles, the University of Warwick, and the European University Institute in Florence. He has a Ph.D. Honoris Causa from the Jaime 1 University in Castellon, Spain. He has published more than 160 articles in international journals and is the author of five books including Complex Economics: from Individual to Collective Rationality and editor of 18 others.

Professor Kirman is a Fellow of the Econometric Society, of the European Economics Association, and member of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton. He was awarded the Humboldt Prize and is a member of the Accademia dei Lincei in Rome. He is panel chair for the 2022 Advanced Grant programme of the ERC in SHS, Honorary Editor of the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, and Associate Editor of several other journals..

 

Moderator: 

sunil sharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, Sunil was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Sunil has a Ph.D. and a M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. He has published widely on economic and financial topics, and his current interests include governance, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

 

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series
 
The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of wellbeing – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

Unshackling India: Hard Truths and Clear Choices for Economic Revival

Wednesday, February 2nd, 2022

We were pleased to invite you to a joint Elliott School Book Launch Series and IIEP Envisioning India event on Wednesday, February 2nd to discuss Unshackling India. This event featured authors Ajay Chhibber and Salman Soz with discussant remarks by Kaushik Basu (Cornell University), and Martin Wolf (Financial Times). This webinar was moderated by Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres, and Elliott School Vice Dean James Foster provided welcoming remarks.

This was the launch of Ajay Chhibber and Salman Anees Soz’s book Unshackling India: Hard Truths and Clear Choices for Economic Revival.

As India enters its seventy-fifth year of independence, conventional policy is unlikely to combat the breadth of its economic challenges. Across a range of areas—human capital, technology, agriculture, finance, trade, public-service delivery and more—new ideas must now be on the table. The COVID-19 pandemic has not only cost India many lives and livelihoods, it has also exposed major structural weaknesses in the economy.

A huge farm and jobs crisis, rising and massive inequalities, tepid investment growth and chronic banking-sector challenges have plagued the economy for many years. The pandemic has exacerbated these challenges. It has also exposed the limitations of the Indian state, which tries to control too much—and ends up stifling the economy and the inherent energies of its young population. Climate change is no longer a distant threat, while disruptive technology has huge implications for India’s demographic dividend. In addition, the dangerous lurch towards majoritarianism will cast its shadow on India’s pursuit of prosperity for all.

Unshackling India examines the question: Can India use the next twenty-five years, when it will reach the hundredth year of independence, to not only restructure its economy but rejuvenate its democratic energy and unshackle its potential and become a genuinely developed economy by 2047? This book argues that India can foster a prosperous and inclusive economy if it sets its mind to it, acknowledges the hard truths and lays out the clear choices and new ideas India must adopt towards that end.

Welcoming Remarks:

Picture of James FosterJames Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

About the Moderator:

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres is the Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Before joining the Elliott School, she was a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia under the Obama administration. She holds a Ph.D. in South Asian Languages and Civilizations from the University of Chicago.

 

About the Speakers:

Picture of Ajay ChhibberAjay Chhibber is Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He was the first Director General, Independent Evaluation Office, India, and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the NIPFP. He served as Assistant Secretary General, UN, and Assistant Administrator, UNDP. At the World Bank he served as Country Director in Turkey and Vietnam, and Director of the 1997 World Development Report. He has a PhD from Stanford University, an MA from the Delhi School of Economics and was awarded the David Rajaram Prize for best all-rounder at St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University.

 

Picture of Salman Anees SozSalman Soz is an economic development consultant, author and commentator. He has extensive international experience across a range of economic development issues. Formerly with the World Bank, he now serves as a consultant to international institutions. He is a recipient of the World Bank President’s Award for Excellence. His commentary appears in a variety of media outlets and he speaks regularly on politics, economics, and international affairs. He has an MBA from Yale University, an MA in Economics from Northeastern University, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from St. Stephen’s College, where he was the President of the Students’ Union Society.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Kaushik BasuKaushik Basu is Professor of Economics and Carl Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University. He is currently the President of the International Economic Association and a nonresident senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution. He recently served as Chief Economist at the World Bank and before that was Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India. During his tenure at the Bank, he regularly co-taught an Elliott School course Game Theory and Strategic Thinking with James Foster, which included a class session in the Preston Auditorium of the World Bank for its 150 GW students. As one student commented “Being taught by Prof. Basu was definitely an Only at GW moment!” He has now returned to Cornell but fondly remembers his time in DC – especially his weekly chats with GW students and his daily strolls across the GW campus from home to work in the Bank, and back again.

Picture of Martin WolfMartin Wolf CBE is Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000. He was a member of the UK government’s Independent Commission on Banking between June 2010 and September 2011. He is an honorary fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford and King’s College, London.  He has received honorary doctorates from six universities, including the London School of Economics. He is a University Global Fellow of Columbia University, New York. Mr Wolf won the Ludwig Erhard Prize for economic commentary for 2009, the 33rd Ischia International Journalism Prize in 2012,  the Overseas Press Club of America’s prize for “best commentary on international news in any medium” for 2013 and the 2019 Lifetime Achievement Award at the Gerald Loeb Awards. His most recent book is The Shifts and The Shocks: What we’ve learned – and have still to learn – from the financial crisis.

 

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

China’s Prospects for Catching Up: Escaping the Middle-Income Trap in an Era of Massive GVC Repositioning

Wednesday, May 11th, 2022
11 a.m. – 12:30 p.m  EDT
1957 E St. NW, Room 211 

via Zoom

Professor Keun Lee from Seoul National University, Economics Department, recently Vice Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers of the Korean President, discussed his new book, China’s technological leapfrogging and Economic Catch-up: A Schumpeterian Perspective.

He has previously published a long list of books and articles on the topic of technology and economic catching up, including The Challenges of Technology and Economic Catch-up in Emerging Economies.

Cosponsored by GWIKS, IISTP, and IIEP.

About The Book

After the miraculous economic growth known as the Beijing Consensus, China is now facing a slowdown. The attention has moved to the issue of the middle income trap, or the situation in which economic growth slows down as a country reaches the middle income stage. China’s Technological Leapfrogging and Economic Catch-up: A Schumpeterian Perspective deals with this interesting issue in the context of China. It also discusses China’s limitations and future prospects, especially after the rise of a new “cold war” between China and the US, namely the question of whether China would fall into another trap called the “Thucydides trap,” or conflict with the existing hegemon as a rising power. In sum, this book plays around three key terms, namely, the Beijing Consensus, the Middle Income Trap, and the Thucydides trap, and applies a Schumpeterian approach to these concepts. This book also conducts a comparative analysis that examines China from an “economic catch-up” perspective. An economic catch-up starts from learning and imitating a forerunner, but finishing the race successfully requires taking a different path along the road. This act is also known as leapfrogging, which implies a latecomer doing something different from, and often ahead of, a forerunner.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Inequality

Wednesday, January 26th, 2022
12:00 – 1:30 p.m. EDT

We were pleased to invite you to a Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy event on Wednesday, January 26th, entitled “The U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Inequality.” This event featured Karen Petrou (Federal Finance Analytics), with discussant remarks by Mark Levonian (formerly of Promontory Financial Group), Bill Nelson (Bank Policy Institute), and Peter Conti-Brown (University of Pennsylvania).

In her ground-breaking 2021 book, Karen Petrou shows how the U.S. Federal Reserve inadvertently – but dramatically – exacerbated U.S. income and wealth inequality after 2010. Approaching the problem from a pragmatic, market-focused perspective, she demonstrates how the combined force of post-2008 monetary and regulatory policy made Americans more unequal, the financial system even more fragile, and voters angrier.

In the seminar, Petrou provided a perspective on what the Federal Reserve did to counter the pandemic-induced 2020 financial crisis and its inequality impact. She laid out the inequality-transmission channels of current Fed policy and discussed specific policy solutions, to address worsening economic inequality in a higher-risk financial system.

This webinar was moderated by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma, and had welcoming remarks by IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh.

Welcome Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and  International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Sunil Sharma

Sunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, Sunil was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

From 2012-2020, he was on the Governing Board of the Mysore Royal Academy (MYRA) School of Business, Mysore, India. During 2012-2018, he was a member of the Advisory Board, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), Singapore Management University, Singapore, and over 2011-2015, he served on the International Advisory Board, Institute of Global Finance, Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.

Sunil has a Ph.D. and a M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. He has published widely on economic and financial topics, and his current interests include governance, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

About the Presenter:

Picture of Karen Petrou Karen Petrou is the co-founder and Managing Partner of Federal Financial Analytics, Inc., a privately-held company that since 1985 has provided analytical and advisory services on legislative, regulatory, and public-policy issues affecting financial services companies doing business in the U.S. and abroad. Petrou is a frequent speaker on topics affecting the financial services industry. In addition to testifying before the U.S. Congress, she has spoken before the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Chicago, the European Central Bank, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the International Monetary Fund, the Clearing House, the Bank Policy Institute, the Institute of International Bankers, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the Japanese Diet, and many other governmental, industry and academic groups. She has also authored numerous articles in publications such as the American Banker and the Financial Times, and is frequently quoted as a bank policy expert in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Politico, the Hill, and other media outlets.

Prior to founding her own firm in 1985, Petrou worked in Washington as an officer at Bank of America, where she began her career in 1977. She is an honors graduate in Political Science from Wellesley College and also was a special student in an honors program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She earned an M.A. in that subject from the University of California at Berkeley, and was a doctoral candidate there. She has served on the boards of banking organizations and now sits as a director on the board of the Foundation Fighting Blindness and the Fidelco Guide Dog Foundation. In 2019, she and her husband Basil were named “visionaries” by the Foundation Fighting Blindness.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Mark LevonianMark Levonian was most recently Managing Director and Global Head for Enterprise Economics and Risk Analysis at Promontory Financial Group. He was formerly Senior Deputy Comptroller for Economics at the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), where he served as a key advisor to the Comptroller before, during, and after the global financial crisis. Mark oversaw quantitative examination support and policy research for the OCC and was closely involved in policy responses to the financial crisis, including the development of bank stress testing. As a senior regulatory official and economist, he led or participated in various Basel Committee initiatives related to economic modeling and played a leading role in the development of rules and guidance for multiple generations of the Basel capital framework. Prior to joining the OCC, Mark was Vice President for Banking Supervision and Regulation and Economic Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Manager of the Banking Studies Department at the New York Fed, Lecturer in Finance at the University of California’s Haas School of Business, and Senior Economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. He has been an adviser/consultant to the World Bank, the IMF, and the central banks of Russia and Belarus.

Picture of Bill Nelson

Bill Nelson is an Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at the Bank Policy Institute and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. Previously he served as Executive Managing Director, Chief Economist, and Head of Research at the Clearing House Association and Chief Economist of the Clearing House Payments Company. Mr. Nelson contributed to and oversaw research and analysis to support the advocacy of the Association on behalf of TCH’s owner banks.
Prior to joining The Clearing House in 2016, Mr. Nelson was a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. Mr. Nelson attended Federal Open Market Committee meetings and regularly briefed the Board and FOMC. He was a member of the Large Institution Supervision Coordinating Committee (LISCC) and the steering committee of the Comprehensive Liquidity Analysis and Review (CLAR). He has chaired and participated in several BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations and most recently chaired the CGFS-Markets Committee working group on regulatory change and monetary policy. Mr. Nelson joined the Board in 1993 as an economist in the Banking section of Monetary Affairs. In 2004, he was the founding chief of the new Monetary and Financial Stability section of Monetary Affairs. In 2007 and 2008, he visited the Bank for International Settlements, in Basel, Switzerland, where his responsibilities included analyzing central banks’ responses to the financial crisis and researching the use of forward guidance by central banks. He returned to the Board in the fall of 2008 where he helped design and manage several of the Federal Reserve’s emergency liquidity facilities.

Mr. Nelson earned a Ph.D., an M.S., and an M.A. in economics from Yale University and a B.A. from the University of Virginia. He has published research on a wide range of topics including monetary policy rules; monetary policy communications; and the intersection of monetary policy, lender of last resort policy, financial stability, and bank supervision and regulation.

Picture of Peter Conti-BrownPeter Conti-Brown is the Class of 1965 Associate Professor of Financial Regulation at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Co-Director of the Wharton Initiative of Financial Policy and Regulation, and Nonresident Fellow in Economics Studies at The Brookings Institution. A financial historian and a legal scholar, Conti-Brown studies central banking, financial regulation, and public finance, with a particular focus on the history and policies of the US Federal Reserve System. He is author of the book The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve (Princeton University Press 2016), co-author of a leading textbook on financial regulation (The Law of Financial Institutions), and author and editor of several other books and articles on central banking, financial regulation, and bank corporate governance. He received a law degree from Stanford Law School and a PhD in history from Princeton. He and his wife Nikki are the parents of four children.

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of wellbeing – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

Economic Effects and Policy Responses to Climate Change and Natural Disasters

Thursday, December 2nd, 2021
9 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST

The objective of this conference was to discuss recent policy research related to the economics of climate change. One set of studies analyzes the global economic and spatial effects of climate change and different policy options to mitigate its negative economic consequences, especially those related to migration, trade, taxation and innovation policy. Another set of studies focuses on the localized economic impacts of climate change and natural disasters in Africa, and corresponding policy options to promote mitigation and resilience, including technologies, infrastructure and fiscal policy. The conference was divided into two sessions. First there was be a round table discussion with two 25-minute presentations by two keynote speakers, followed by 10-minute feedback by a discussant, and 20 minutes of Q&A. Second, authors presented their research papers for 18 minutes, followed by 5-minute feedback by a discussant, and 7 minutes of Q&A.

This event was jointly organized by the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice, the Office of the Director for Regional Integration for Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa of the World Bank, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University.

Welcome Remarks

Picture of Boutheina GuermaziBoutheina Guermazi (Director, Regional Integration in Western & Central Africa, Eastern & Southern Africa, and Middle East & North Africa Regions) is the World Bank Director for Regional Integration for Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa. Prior to her current appointment, Ms. Guermazi was the Director of Digital Development (DD) Department of the Infrastructure Practice Group from August 2018 to October 2021, heading a global team that worked on building digital economies in developing countries, to drive shared prosperity and reduced poverty. She also served as the Practice Manager of Digital Development covering Africa and the Middle East regions, and  as Lead Operations Officer in the Regional Integration Unit of the Africa region. During her tenure, she has written and published articles and book chapters on trade law, telecommunications policy, and regulatory reform. Before joining the World Bank, Ms. Guermazi was Assistant Professor at the University of Law and Political and Social Sciences of Tunis, and a Telecommunications consultant to the Sector Reform Unit at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Ms. Guermazi holds a Ph.D. in Telecommunications Law and Policy from the Faculty of Law at McGill University, Canada; an L.L.M. in International Law from Indiana University, USA; and a Bachelor’s Degree in Public Law from the University of Tunis, Tunisia. She held a Fulbright Scholarship and was a research scholar at the University of Michigan (USA), the Social Science Research Council (USA), and the Center of Studies for Regulated Industries (Canada).

Roundtable

Moderator:

Picture of Carolina Sánchez-PáramoCarolina Sánchez-Páramo (Global Director, Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank), a Spanish national, is currently the Global Director of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice (GP) at the World Bank. Prior to this assignment, she was the Poverty and Equity GP Practice Manager in the Europe and Central Asia region. Carolina has worked on operations, policy advice and analytical activities in Eastern Europe, Latin America and South Asia, and was part of the core team working on the WDR2012, “Gender Equality and Development”. Her main areas of interest and expertise include labor economics, poverty and distributional analysis, gender equality and welfare impacts of public policy. She has led reports on poverty and equity, labor markets and economic growth in several countries, as well as social sector operations. She has published articles in refereed journals and edited books on the topics described above. Carolina has a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.

Keynote Speakers:

Picture of Solomon HsiangSolomon Hsiang (Berkeley) directs the Global Policy Laboratory at Berkeley, where his team is integrating econometrics, spatial data science, and machine learning to answer questions that are central to rationally managing planetary resources–such as the economic value of the global climate, how the UN can fight wildlife poaching, the effectiveness of treaties governing the oceans, and whether satellites and AI can be combined to monitor the entire planet in real time. Hsiang earned a BS in Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science and a BS in Urban Studies and Planning from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and he received a PhD in Sustainable Development from Columbia University. He was a Post-Doctoral Fellow in Applied Econometrics at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and a Post-Doctoral Fellow in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy at Princeton University. Hsiang is currently the Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, a Co-Director at the Climate Impact Lab, Research Associate at the NBER, a National Geographic Explorer, and an Andrew Carnegie Fellow. Hsiang is currently the Lead Author of the Economics chapter for the Fifth National Climate Assessment. In 2020, he was awarded the President’s Medal by the Geological Society of America. View his slides here.

Picture of Esteban Rossi-HansbergEsteban Rossi-Hansberg is the Glen A. Lloyd Distinguished Service Professor in the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics at the University of Chicago (since 2021). Previously, he was the Theodore A. Wells ’29 Professor of Economics at Princeton University. Prior to Princeton, he was an Assistant Professor at Stanford University. He earned a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 2002. His research specializes in international trade, regional and urban economics, as well as growth and organizational economics. He has published extensively in all the major journals in economics. In 2007, he received the prestigious Alfred Sloan Research Fellowship and in 2010, he received the August Lösch Prize and the Geoffrey Hewings Award. He is an elected fellow of the Econometric Society since 2017 and won the Robert E. Lucas Jr. Prize in 2019. View his slides here.

Discussant:

Picture of Richard DamaniaRichard Damania (Chief Economist in the Sustainable Development Vice Presidency, World Bank) is the Chief Economist of the Sustainable Development Practice Group.  He has held several positions in the World Bank including as Senior Economic Advisor in the Water Practice, Lead Economist in the Africa Region’s Sustainable Development Department, in the South Asia and Latin America and Caribbean Regions of the World Bank.  His work has spanned across multiple sectors and has helped the World Bank become an acknowledged thought-leader on matters relating to  environment, water and the economy.  Prior to joining the World Bank he held positions in academia and has published extensively with over 100 papers in scientific journals. View his slides here.

Academic Presentations

Moderator:

Picture of Rémi JedwabRémi Jedwab (GWU) is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics. 

Speakers:

Picture of Román David ZárateRomán David Zárate (World Bank) is an economist at the Trade and Integration unit of the World Bank’s Development Research Group (DEC-RG). He received a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. His research interests are in international trade, urban economics, and development economics. He primarily focuses on how different forms of market integration impact aggregate welfare and productivity in developing countries. View his slides here.

 

 

 

 

Picture of Kelsey JackKelsey Jack (UCSB)’s research is at the intersection of environmental and development economics, with a focus on how individuals, households, and communities decide to use natural resources and provide public goods. Much of her research uses field experiments to test theory and new policy innovations. She has done research in numerous countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, and has ongoing work in South Africa, Ghana, Zambia and Niger. Kelsey co-chair’s the Environment and Energy sector at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at MIT (J-PAL), directs the Poverty Alleviation group at the Environmental Markets Lab at UCSB (emLab), and is an associate editor at the American Economic Review. View her slides here.

Picture of Jonathan DingelJonathan Dingel (Chicago) is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. His research agenda focuses on the spatial distribution of economic activities across neighborhoods, cities, and countries. He tries to understand the substantial variation in the amount and nature of economic activity across space. Recently, he examined the scope for telecommuting, using satellite images to define cities, and how the global climate affects agricultural trade. View his slides here.

 

 

Picture of Marshall BurkeMarshall Burke (Stanford) is associate professor in the Department of Earth System Science and Deputy Director at the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University, and Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on social and economic impacts of environmental change, and on measuring and understanding economic livelihoods across the developing world. His work regularly appears in both economics and scientific journals, including recent publications in NatureScience, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and The Lancet.  He holds a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from UC Berkeley, and a BA in International Relations from Stanford. He is also co-founder of AtlasAI, a start-up using satellites and machine learning to measure livelihoods. View his slides here.

Discussants:

Picture of Klaus DesmetKlaus Desmet (SMU) is the Altshuler Professor of Cities, Regions and Globalization at Southern Methodist University, Research Associate at NBER and Research Fellow at CEPR. He holds an MSc in Business and Engineering from the Université catholique de Louvain and a PhD in Economics from Stanford University. Before moving to SMU, he was Professor at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. His research focuses on regional economics, economic growth, political economy and international trade. His work has appeared in journals such as the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the Journal of Economic Theory and the Journal of Development conomics. In 2019 he was the co-recipient of the Robert E. Lucas Jr. Prize. View his slides here.

Picture of Sheetal SekhriSheetal Sekhri (UVA) is a tenured associate professor in the department of Economics at the University of Virginia. She received her PhD from Brown University. As a development economist, most of her research is in two thematic areas. She uses theoretical insights and data to answer questions related to causes and consequences of water scarcity and pollution. She also addresses issues related to gender-based violence. Her other interests are higher education, skilled labor markets, and state capacity in developing countries. Her work often uses primary datasets that she generates based on surveys she conducts and is informed by insights from various disciplines. She has conducted extensive field work in India.

Picture of Mariaflavia HarariMariaflavia (Nina) Harari (Penn – Wharton) is an Assistant Professor of Real Estate at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, specializing in urban economics and development economics. Her research agenda is centered on urbanization in developing countries. Her research was featured on the American Economic Review. Dr. Harari holds a B.A. and a M.Sc. in Economics and Social Sciences from Bocconi University and a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. View her slides here.

 

 

 

Picture of Paulina OliviaPaulina Oliva (USC) is an Associate Professor in the Economics Department of the University of Southern California. She received my PhD in Economics from UC, Berkeley in 2009. She specializes in the fields of Environmental Economics and Development; and specifically, on the relationship between air pollution and health and on environmental policy effectiveness in the developing world. Her work uses a variety of microeconometric techniques to study individual incentives and human impacts of air pollution. View her slides here.

Climate Change and Migration: The Case of Africa

Tuesday, November 30th, 2021
12:30 – 2:00 EST
via Zoom

In this Trade and Development workshop, Bruno Conte (Università di Bologna) presented his paper, Climate change and migration: the case of Africa.

Abstract: This paper provides a spatial general equilibrium model to quantify the impact of climate change on the economy and migration. The model can capture the role of trade networks and agricultural suitability on the distribution of population and GDP accounting for endogenous adjustments of crop choice and trade. I use detailed geospatial data from 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to simulate the impact of climate using forecasts of agricultural productivity in 2080 from FAO–GAEZ. Climate change is estimated to displace 12 percent of the SSA population and reduce real GDP by 4 percent. The capacity of switching crops, urbanizing, or trading goods reduces the impact of climate change in terms of population outflows. Finally, the adoption of modern inputs in agriculture reverses considerably the negative impacts of climate change.

The Challenges of Technology & Economic Catch-Up in Emerging Economies

Tuesday, November 30th, 2021
10:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. EST
Hybrid

This was the book launch of The Challenges of Technology & Economic Catch-Up in Emerging Economies, featuring Nicholas Vonortas and distinguished speakers.

The obstacles faced by emerging economies in upgrading their technology can stall growth, and the existing challenges are enhanced under COVID-19, geopolitical struggles, and the growing concern around environmental sustainability. The Challenges of Technology and Economic Catch-up in Emerging Economies synthesizes and interprets existing knowledge on technology upgrading failures, in firm, sector, and macro levels, across different countries and world macroregions.

The Elliott School Book Launch Series was proud to present a lecture featuring the author, distinguished speakers, and Dean Alyssa Ayres of the Elliott School. The event was held in-person and livestreamed simultaneously.

About the Co-Editors

Picture of Nicholas VonortasNicholas Vonortas is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and Director of its Institute for International Science and Technology Policy (IISTP). He is also a Leading Research Fellow at the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge in the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow. His interests center around industrial organization, the economics of technological change, technology and innovation policy and strategy, and R&D program evaluation. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from New York University.

 

Jeon-Dong LeeJeon-Dong Lee is a professor in the College of Engineering at Seoul National University and a Special Advisor to the President of Korea on Economy and Science. His research focuses on the use of network economics and the social effects of network technologies. He holds a Ph.D in Science and Telecommunications from Seoul National University.

 

Picture of Keun LeeKeun Lee is a Professor of Economics at Seoul National University in Seoul, Korea, an editor of Research Policy, an associate editor of Industrial and Corporate Change, and a council member of the World Economic Forum, and Vice Chair of National Economic Advisory Council of Korea. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

 

Picture of Dirk MeissnerDirk Meissner is a professor and laboratory head in the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Russia. His research interests include science, technology, innovation policy, and commercialization. He holds a PhD from Dresden University Institute of Technology.

 

 

Picture of Slavo RadosevicSlavo Radosevic is a Professor of Industry and Innovation Studies at University College London. His research focuses on the economics of technological change and innovation studies, as well as growth and structural change through innovation systems and entrepreneurship. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Zagreb.

 

 

About the Guest Speakers

Picture of Otaviano CanutoOtaviano Canuto is a nonresident senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program at the Brookings Institution. His experience includes 15 years as vice president, executive director or senior adviser in institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and has also served as state secretary for international affairs at the ministry of finance at the Government of Brazil. He holds a PhD in economics from University of Campinas in Brazil.

 

Picture of Anwar AridiAnwar Aridi is a Private Sector Specialist at the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) unit of the Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice at the World Bank. He specializes in science, technology, and innovation policy issues, private sector development, technology entrepreneurship, and technology transfer. He holds a Ph.D. in Science and Technology Policy from the GWU Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Administration.

 

About the Dean

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres is the Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Before joining the Elliott School, she was a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia under the Obama administration. She holds a Ph.D. in South Asian Languages and Literatures from the University of Chicago.

About the Event

This event is free, recorded, and open to the public. Media inquiries and advance questions are accepted at esiaresearch@email.gwu.edu.

Distributional Impacts of Cash Transfers on the Multidimensional Poverty of Refugees: The ESSN program in Turkey

Monday, November 29th, 2021
11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. EST
via Zoom

Most evaluation exercises of humanitarian cash transfer programs use traditional metrics of poverty and study average effects of intended outcomes separately. We analyze the impact of the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) cash program on the multidimensional poverty of refugees in Turkey, using a purpose-build Refugee Multidimensional Poverty Index. We conduct a nuanced causal analysis of the distributional impacts of the ESSN on the incidence and intensity of multidimensional poverty, and decompose effects for separate dimensions of poverty. Results show that the ESSN successfully reached the poor and significantly reduced overall multidimensional poverty among its beneficiaries. Significant reductions are found in the dimensions of food security, living standards and education. Incidence and intensity of poverty are shown to fall across the entire distribution. This supports emerging claims that these types of programs, still relatively new in humanitarian contexts, can be transformative for their beneficiaries to achieve multiple outcomes simultaneously. Reductions in the intensities for more deprived households stand out as a finding that outcome specific evaluations and multidimensional impact evaluations focusing on estimating average treatment effect would have missed, demonstrating the added value of the proposed methodological innovation to focus on the entire distribution of deprivation in this paper. By learning from the largest humanitarian cash program in the world, results provide important lessons for cash programs on multidimensional poverty of refugees elsewhere.

  

About the Speaker:

Picture of Matthew Robson

Matthew Robson works part-time at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) as a Research Assistant. He has worked on a range of projects since 2014, including: refugee multidimensional poverty indices, mismatches between poverty indexes and changes in poverty over time. He is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of York, working within the Equity in Health Policy (EQUIPOL) research group to develop methods to evaluate the causal impacts of interventions on health inequalities. His research interests also span experimental and behavioural economics, where he focuses on prosocial behaviour and inequality aversion. For more information, see his website: https://mrobson92.com/

 

About the Discussant:

Picture of Josefin Pasanen

Josefin Pasanen joined the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) research team in 2020. She brings a background in research, monitoring and evaluation, and capacity building for high-impact policy design. She has a strong interest in translating research into policy innovation. Prior to joining HDRO, Josefin was head of Capacity building at the global research center Poverty Action Lab’s (J-PAL) office for Latin America and the Caribbean, working to strengthen government, NGO and private sector capacities for evidence-based policies and programs across the region. A development economist by training, she holds an MSc in Local Economic Development from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and a BSc in Economics and Political Science from Uppsala University. Her research and policy interests center on data for development, sustainability and social inclusion, poverty alleviation, inequalities, gender and labour markets. Josefin’s previous experience also includes research at the Swedish Agency for Public Management and the Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy, and policy advisory for the Mayor ́s office at the City of Stockholm.

 

 

 

 

Predicting and Mapping MPI using Geospatial and Combined Disparate Data Sources

Monday, November 22nd, 2021
11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. EST
via Zoom

Poverty statistics are conventionally compiled using data from household income and expenditure survey or living standards survey. This study examines an alternative approach in estimating poverty by investigating whether readily available geospatial data can accurately predict the spatial distribution of poverty in Thailand. In particular, geospatial data examined in this study include night light intensity, land cover, vegetation index, land surface temperature, built-up areas, and points of interest. The study also compares the predictive performance of various econometric and machine learning methods such as generalized least squares, neural network, random forest, and support vector regression. Results suggest that intensity of night lights and other variables that approximate population density are highly associated with the proportion of an area’s population who are living in poverty. The random forest technique yielded the highest level of prediction accuracy among the methods considered in this study, perhaps due to its capability to fit complex association structures even with small and medium-sized datasets. Moving forward, additional studies are needed to investigate whether the relationships observed here remain stable over time, and therefore, may be used to approximate the prevalence of poverty for years when household surveys on income and expenditures are not conducted, but data on geospatial correlates of poverty are available.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Neeti PokhriyalNeeti Pokhriyal is a visiting scholar in the Department of Computer Science, Dartmouth College, where she was employed as a postdoc from 2019-2021 funded by the Institute for Security, Technology and Society. She is interested in modeling scenarios characterized by noisy, uncertain, and high-dimensional data coming from heterogeneous sources, with emphasis on reasoning under uncertainty and quantifying biases. She seeks understanding of problems targeting sustainable human development using knowledge inspired and data-driven computational techniques and is interested in exploring evidence-driven policy planning.

She was awarded a seed grant from the Arthur L. Irving Institute for Energy and Society, Dartmouth College in 2020 to propose methods that enable frequent evaluations of energy deficit in poorer economies in absence of any official surveys. She has collaborated with the Inter-American Development Bank, DC on studying poverty and inequality for Haiti from satellite imagery and mobile phone data.

Her doctoral work was awarded the Chih Foundation Research Award in 2019, which is a single award of USD 2.5K given for innovative research for the betterment of society at University at Buffalo, State University of New York, from where she completed her Ph.D in Computer Science at the Center for Unified Biometrics. During her Ph.D, she led a project funded by Gates Foundation for mapping multi-dimensional poverty using mobile data and has teamed with the National Statistics Office of Senegal and Sonatel. She has also collaborated with the Oversees Development Institute (ODI), London, and Datapop Alliance regarding poverty mapping work in Senegal.

Prior to Ph.D, she was a researcher in the Computer Science and Mathematics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and obtained here Masters in Computer Science from University of California, Riverside, where she received the Dean’s Distinguished Fellowship. She also has an undergraduate degree in Computer Science and Engineering with honors.

 

Picture of Nattapong PuttanapongNattapong Puttanapong is a professor and economist in profession. He is presently an Assistant Professor at Thammasat University and the senior economist at the research institute of Thailand’s Ministry of Finance. He has also worked as a consultant to various government agencies and international organizations such as OECD, ILO, World Bank, ADB and JICA. He was awarded with the Royal Thai Government Scholarship, through which he obtained his Ph.D. in Regional Economics from Cornell University. Dr. Puttanapong’s research interests are in the areas of economic modelling, spatial econometrics, and socioeconomic disparities.

 

Picture of Damien JacquesDamien Jacques is the lead data scientist of Rubyx, a company designing risk and profit optimization solutions for banking institutions in emerging countries. He has led projects across the globe requiring (i) designing and implementing algorithms to extract key insights from large unstructured data, (ii) develop strategies to leverage the entire data value chain of companies and development agencies; and (iii) successfully scale up data solutions in complex and multi-stakeholder ecosystem. Damien has extensive expertise in the use of non-traditional data for poverty monitoring and has contributed to the following projects:

– Combining cell phone and satellite image data for improved multidimensional poverty monitoring in Senegal. The results have been published in PNAS (University of Buffalo, Orange). 

– Tracking a socio-economic crisis in central America and its impact on poverty using a  series of indicators generated from the mobile phone activity of users in the country before and after the crisis (Inter-American Development Bank).  

– Estimate poverty at the individual level using mobile phone data in Uganda in order to target the poorest with cash transfers (Dalberg Data Insights, GiveDirectly).

– He also co-organized the poverty mapping initiative with the World Bank and the Qatar Computing Institute.The goal of the workshop was to share knowledge and make plans to better combine traditional development data (such as household surveys, labor force surveys and censuses) with complementary sources of big data (satellite, mobile phones, social media) towards achieving more accurate, timely and cost-effective measures of poverty. See blog Making a better Poverty Map.

Damien holds a Ph.D. in Bioengineering and Agronomy from the catholic University of Louvain.

 

 

Escaping Sanctions? Iranian Firm Response and Market Reallocation Under International Trade Sanctions

Tuesday, November 9th, 2021
12:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. EST
via Zoom

How do targeted firms respond to international trade sanctions? While the macroeconomic effect of trade sanctions has been extensively studied, little is known about how trade sanctions shape firm dynamics and their heterogeneous effects in a targeted country. Exploring detailed Iranian manufacturing firm surveys, I examine firm-level asymmetric effects of the 2012-2013 U.S. and EU trade sanctions against Iran due to Iran’s nuclear program. Empirical analysis shows that the sanctions cut Iranian firms’ exports in half and imports by over 30 percent and, on average, reduced firm-level productivity, profit, revenue, and employment. However, intriguingly, exporting firms were found to mitigate negative effects of sanctions through increased presence in the domestic market, transferring sanction shocks to non-exporting firms. At the same time, importing firms responded to sanctions by sourcing more domestic inputs at the expense of non-importing firms. Based on a stylized model featuring heterogeneous firms with capacity constraints, I show that the export sanctions increased consumer welfare by 4.35 percent with decreasing domestic prices for a given income level. In contrast, import sanctions led to a 7.5 percent consumer welfare loss by increasing prices. The stylized model implies alleviating exporting firm capacity constraints during adverse trade shocks increases positive impacts through export channels.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Ebad Ebadi

 

Ebad Ebadi is a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at George Washington University, where he researches the impacts of economic sanctions on firms and individuals and gender inequality in the Iranian labor market. He has written for numerous publications, including the Atlantic Council. He holds M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and the University of Tehran.

Accelerating Systemic Transformation: A Case Study from Wales (UK)

Wednesday, November 10th, 2021
12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

This was an IIEP/ASU-Thunderbird event on Wednesday, November 10th, entitled “Accelerating Systemic Transformation: A Case Study from Wales (UK).” It featured Jyoti Banerjee (North Star Transition), Jenny Scott (Apella), and Victoria Topham (Wales Transition Lab).

The Wales Transition Lab (WTL) is a systemic nation-scale program across Wales that reconnects food, health, and nature to deliver solutions that address the root causes of a widespread decline in wellbeing. Launched in October 2020 by North Star Transition, WTL brings together over thirty leaders across food, farming, environment, water, business, education, and health sectors across Wales around bold, shared ambitions. The seminar will provide an inside view of the ways in which WTL is helping to bring about systemic transformation and the challenges this effort faces. It will assess how this stakeholder-driven approach fits into governance and policy structures, providing a real-world case study of a comprehensive place-based attempt to create a better future.

This webinar was moderated by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma. IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh and Ann Florini of ASU-Thunderbird provided welcoming remarks. This event was co-sponsored by the Thunderbird School of Management, Arizona State University, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Jyoti BanerjeeJyoti Banerjee is co-founder of North Star Transition, and project director of the team that created the Integrated Reporting (six capitals) movement globally. He also chaired the Integrated Thinking and Strategy group, a collaboration of over fifty global organizations, including the World Bank, BASF and Novo Nordisk. He has been involved in impact investing for two decades and used to be an entrepreneur in the tech sector. At North Star Transition, he leads the Finance Transition Lab. Jyoti has a master’s degree in economics from the Delhi School of Economics, and an MBA from the Open Business School. He taught entrepreneurship as an MBA elective at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

Picture of Jenny ScottJenny Scott is a Founder Partner at Apella, an advisory firm that helps organizations build their purpose, strategy and reputation. Prior to establishing Apella, Jenny was an Executive Director at the Bank of England, responsible for leading communications throughout the 2008 financial crisis and the Brexit referendum in 2016. She was also co-head of strategy. Before that, Jenny was Economics Correspondent at the BBC. She is a trustee of Pro Bono Economics. Jenny is a senior advisor at North Star Transition.

 

Picture of Victoria TophamVictoria Topham is a chartered accountant who worked for over 20 years as a finance professional, training with PwC and holding commercial and corporate finance roles with leading media industry businesses. With the urgency for sustainable and systemic change to tackle planetary degeneration, she works with businesses and organizations to develop purpose-led business models. Victoria leads the Wales Transition Lab and is also vice chair of the Buckinghamshire Food Partnership. Victoria has a geology degree from the University of Durham, a Business Sustainability Management qualification from the University of Cambridge’s Institute of Sustainability Leadership and a Professional Coaching Certificate from the Henley Business School. She is a qualified member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF- Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, Sunil was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. His current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Welcome Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and  International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Picture of Ann FloriniAnn Florini is Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, D.C. campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University founding director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations including government, civil society, and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

On Track or Not? Projecting the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index

Monday, November 15th, 2021
11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. EST
via Zoom

This was the fifth event in the continuation of our seminar series on Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, jointly hosted by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford, the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University. Nicolai Suppa (Research Associate, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford & Researcher, Centre for Demographic Studies (CED), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) presented a paper and Doug Gollin (Professor of Development Economics, Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford) discussed.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Nicolai SuppaNicolai Suppa is currently postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for Demographic Studies in Barcelona and Research Associate with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford. He holds a PhD in economics from TU Dortmund in Germany, where he also studied economics and sociology. After his Phd he worked in the research project “Multidimensional Poverty Measurement in Germany and the European Union” funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). His research interests are best described as applied welfare economics, including multidimensional poverty measurement and analysis, research on subjective well-being, the capability approach, labour economics, and applied econometrics.

About the Discussant:

Picture of Doug GollinDoug Gollin is Professor of Development Economics at Oxford University, based in the Oxford Department of International Development. His research focuses broadly on economic development and growth, with an emphasis on the structural transformations that accompany the growth process. He has particular interests in agricultural productivity and technology, from a micro scale to macro scale. His work has also looked at rural-urban mobility and urbanization processes, spatial patterns of development and a range of other topics.

Professor Gollin joined Oxford in October 2012 after spending sixteen years on the faculty of Williams College in the United States. He currently serves as Research Director for a major global program of academic research on Structural Transformation and Economic Growth (STEG), funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office. Professor Gollin is a managing editor of the Journal of African Economies. From 2012-17, he chaired the Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA) of the CGIAR and served on the CGIAR Independent Science and Partnership Council. He has also served on the Research Advisory Group for the former UK Department for International Development (DFID).

Linkages with Multinationals: The Effects on Domestic Firms’ Exports

Tuesday, November 16th, 2021
12.30 p.m. – 2.00 p.m. ET
via Zoom

Christian Volpe Martincus, Principal Economist at the Integration and Trade Sector (INT) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) will present his paper, Linkages with Multinationals: The Effects on Domestic Firms’ Exports.

Abstract: Multinational firms’ affiliates are typically larger, more productive, and more likely to export. Existing empirical evidence suggests that domestic firms that are connected to these affiliates tend to have better export outcomes. However, this evidence relies on firm-to-firm connections that are assumed based on country-level input-output matrices rather than actually observed. In this paper, we examine, whether and how linking up with multinational firms results in improved export performance for domestic firms, using a unique dataset that includes data on firm-to-firm purchases and sales both within and across countries. Our estimation results indicate that selling to a multinational firm is associated with a significant increase in the probability that a domestic firm starts to export, especially to a country where the respective multinational firm is headquartered or has an affiliate. This estimated effect is larger when the multinational firms themselves sell abroad and when the linkage intensity is higher.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Christian VolpeChristian Volpe Martincus is Principal Economist at the Integration and Trade Sector (INT) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). He previously worked for the Ministry of the Economy of the Province of Buenos Aires and was advisor at the MERCOSUR Commission of the National Representatives Chamber in Argentina.

He is the technical leader of INT impact evaluation work related to trade and investment operations and initiatives, the INT networks ELSNIT and TIGN, and the INT Trade Policy Research Seminar Series. He has also advised several governments in both Latin American and the Caribbean and OECD countries on export promotion, investment promotion, trade facilitation, and the evaluation of the respective programs.

Christian holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Bonn, Germany and a Master in Economics from the National University of La Plata (Argentina). He has presented in numerous international academic and policy workshops and conferences and has published on international trade and economic geography in several international professional journals. Christian is a CESifo Research Fellow and serves as an Associate Editor for the Review of International Economics.

14th Annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Relations

Virtual Conference Series

Beginning October 15, 2021

via Webex

Schedule of Events

Friday, October 15, 2021: Did U.S. Politicians Expect the China Shock?

Moderator: Maggie Chen

Dr. Bingjing Li (University of Hong Kong)

James Feigenbaum (Boston University)

Friday, November 5, 2021: One Currency, Two Markets: China’s Attempt to Internationalize the Renminbi

Moderator: Barbara Stallings

Edwin Lai (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Masahiro Kawai (University of Tokyo and ERINA)

Friday, November 19, 2021: How is the Roll Out of Digital RMB Changing the Financial System in China and Abroad?

Jun Qian (Fudan University)

Martin Chorzempa (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Friday, March 4th, 2022: Looking for Balanced Growth in China: Insights from the latest IMF Staff report

                              Moderator: Jay Shambaugh

                              Helge Berger (IMF)

                              Wenjie Chen (IMF)

Friday, April 1, 2022: U.S.-China Tension

Bo Sun (Federal Reserve Board)

Friday, April 22, 2022: China’s rebranding campaign during the Covid-19 pandemic: How successful is it?

                              Yanzhong Huang (Council on Foreign Relations)

                              Zoë McLaren (University of Maryland, Baltimore County)

                              Joan Kaufman (Harvard Medical School)

Friday, April 22, 2022: China’s Irreconcilable Choices on Ukraine

                             Evan A. Feigenbaum (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

                             Michael Moore (George Washington University)

An archive of all previous Annual Conferences on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations is available here.

For more information, please contact Kyle Renner at iiep@gwu.edu or 202-994-5320.

Cosponsored by:

Taking on China – the Imperative and agenda for India

Wednesday, November 17th, 2021
8:30 – 10:00 am EDT / 7:00 – 8:30 pm IST

This was the third webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy, a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The third event of the 2021-2022 series featured Ambassador (Retd) Gautam Bambawale (Distinguished Professor, Symbiosis University, Pune, India) and Dr. Ganesh Natarajan (5F World and Lighthouse Communities) to discuss “Taking on China – The Imperative and Agenda for India.” Manjeet Kripalani (Gateway House) and Dr. Jaimini Bhagwati (CSEP) provided discussant remarks.

India and China were more or less comparable in terms of economy size and global influence in the past but the rapid growth of China in the last five decades has taken China to near super power status and an economy which is over four times the size of India (14 trillion vs 3 trillion USD). This has seen increasing belligerence from China in the last year or so and we believe that India must act and act on multiple fronts if we are to retain our position on the High Table of global affairs.

Six senior members of the Pune International Center in India came together over a one year period in 2021-21 to produce a book Rising to the China Challenge: Winning Through Strategic Patience and Economic Growth that has been recently published and widely read in political, diplomatic and economic circles. Our submission is that there is a need for significant policy responses and diplomatic moves on the one hand and a renewed focus on restoring economic symmetry with China on the other to restore some level of equilibrium between the two nations. Two of the authors, Ambassador (Retd) Gautam Bambawale and Dr. Ganesh Natarajan, will present the book.

In the talk, three areas of great importance will be addressed.
1. Redressing the economic imbalance by focusing on industry sectors where India has the opportunity to redress the huge disparity that currently exists in domestic independence and global position, sectors where we have the imperative and the ability to catch up and build much higher values in the years to come and finally areas where India can indeed take the lead and build jobs for the future.
2. Diplomatic responses needed from India by having new models of engagement with global nations of importance, China’s neighbors and India’s own neighbors to counter China’s growing dominance in world affairs.
3. India’s own domestic and international imperatives and policies and programs that are essential to set India on a path of sustained and significant growth as a democratic force of significance to the world.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Gautam BambawaleAmbassador (Retd) Gautam Bambawale was a member of the Indian Foreign Service from 1984 to 2018. He was India’s Ambassador to Bhutan, Pakistan and China. Bambawale was stationed in Washington DC in 2004-07 during the Indo-US nuclear deal which transformed ties between the two countries. He has been India’s first Consul General in Guangzhou (China) 2007-09. He was Director of the Indian Cultural Centre, Berlin 1994-98. Ambassador Bambawale worked in the Prime Minister’s Office 2002-04. At the Ministry of External Affairs he was Joint Secretary for East Asia from 2009-2014. Bambawale has dealt with China for 15 years of his 34 year diplomatic career. He is currently Distinguished Professor, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Symbiosis International University, Pune.

Picture of Ganesh NatarajanDr. Ganesh Natarajan is Chairman and Co-Founder of 5F World and Lighthouse Communities. He is an investor and mentor to digital platforms and AI entrepreneurs in India and USA. Ganesh is a Board Director of SBI, Hinduja Global Solutions and Asian Venture Philanthropy Network and is Chairman of Honeywell Automation India. Ganesh is an alumnus of IIT Bombay and Harvard Business School and a recipient of IIT’s Distinguished Alumnus Award.

 

 

About the Discussants:

Picture of Manjeet KripalaniManjeet Kripalani is Executive Director of Gateway House. Prior to the founding of Gateway House, she was India Bureau chief of Businessweek magazine from 1996 to 2009. During her extensive career in journalism (Businessweek, Worth and Forbes magazines, New York), she has won several awards, including the Gerald Loeb Award, the George Polk Award, Overseas Press Club and Daniel Pearl Awards. Kripalani was the 2006-07 Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York, which inspired her to found Gateway House. Her political career spans being the deputy press secretary to Steve Forbes during his first run in 1995-96 as Republican candidate for U.S. President in New Jersey, to being press secretary for the Lok Sabha campaign for independent candidate Meera Sanyal in 2008 and 2014 in Mumbai. Kripalani holds two bachelor’s degrees from Bombay University (Bachelor of Law, Bachelor of Arts in English and History) and a master’s degree in International Affairs from Columbia University, New York. She sits on the executive board of Gateway House and is a member of the Rotary Club of Bombay.

Picture of Jaimini BhagwatiDr. Jaimini Bhagwati is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), Chairman of the Infrastructure Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) Asset Management Trustee Company and Board member of IDFC Limited. Dr. Bhagwati was India’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom and India’s Ambassador to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg. He has held senior positions in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Department of Atomic Anergy and the World bank Treasury. His responsibilities at the World Bank included bond funding including execution of over-the-counter derivatives transactions. Between 2013-2018 Dr. Bhagwati was the Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor at ICRIER. Dr. Bhagwati was educated at St. Stephen’s College, New Delhi, Tufts University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA.

The Future Global Economic and Spatial Consequences of Climate Change

Tuesday, October 26th, 2021
12:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.
Online

Trade & Development Workshop

Speaker: Klaus Desmet (SMU)

Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World

Abstract: This paper quantitatively assesses the world’s changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions, and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1◦ by 1◦resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada, and Scandinavia. Compared to a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil, and India’s Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.

Latin America: The Pandemic, Poverty, and Policy

Latin America Event Banner

Wednesday, November 17th, 2021
4:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m. EST
via Zoom

This was a panel discussion on Wednesday, November 17th on “Latin America: The Pandemic, Poverty, and Policy.” The event featured panelists Mauricio Cárdenas (Columbia University and former Minister of Finance, Colombia), Benigno López Benítez (Inter-American Development Bank and former Minister of Finance, Paraguay), Nora Lustig (Tulane University), and William Maloney (The World Bank). Danny Leipziger (GWU) moderated the event.

This panel discussion aimed to review the issues related to the direct impact of pandemics on the poor in Latin America. The discussion focused on the urgent need to design policies to lessen the negative impact on the most vulnerable in a region most affected by recent events.

This event is co-sponsored by the Growth Dialogue, the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER), the Latin American and Hemispheric Studies Program at the George Washington University, and the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP).

About the Panelists

Picture of Mauricio Cárdenas SantamaríaDr. Mauricio Cárdenas Santamaría is a former Minister of Finance and Public Credit of Colombia and Visiting Research Scholar at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. An economist and politician, he served as the 69th Minister of Finance and formerly as Minister of Mines and Energy of Colombia in the administration of President Juan Manuel Santos Calderón. Prior to this, he was a Senior Fellow and Director of the Latin America Initiative at the Brookings Institution.

In a long and distinguished career in the Government of Colombia, he has also served as Minister of Economic Development, as Minister of Transport, and as Director of the National Planning Department. In the private sector, he has served as Director of the Higher Education and Development Foundation (Fedesarrollo) and as the 7th President of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).

Since leaving government, Dr. Cardenas joined various academic institutions. In 2019, he became a Visiting Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy of Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). Since 2020, Dr. Cardenas has been serving in the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response (IPPR), a group examining how the World Health Organization (WHO) and countries handled the COVID-19 pandemic. He received his doctorate in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Picture of Benigno López BenítezBenigno López Benítez is Vice-President for Sectors and Knowledge at the Inter-American Development Bank since his appointment in November 2020. Prior to joining the IDB, he served as Minister of Finance of Paraguay. In that role, he led a comprehensive tax-reform initiative aimed at improving the progressive capacity of the tax system, increasing government revenue to finance health and education reforms, and incentivizing labor formalization.

Prior to his public service, Mr. Lopez served as Chairman of the Social Security Institute, Paraguay’s employer-based health insurance and pensions system. During his tenure, he aimed to restructure the institution’s debt, professionalize its administration and structure and diversify its investment portfolio. In 2013, Mr. Lopez was appointed Executive Legal Director and member of the board of Itaipú Bi-nacional, which administers the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Paraguay-Brazil border. From 2012-2013, Mr. Lopez served as Senior Advisor to the Executive Board of the IMF, Washington D.C. Previously, he worked for more than two decades at the Central Bank of Paraguay as Board Director from 2007 to 2012 and as head of the legal department.

Mr. Lopez holds a law degree from Paraguay’s Catholic University and a Master of Laws (LL.M) from Georgetown University.

Picture of Nora LustigDr. Nora Lustig is Samuel Z. Stone Professor of Latin American Economics and the founding Director of the Commitment to Equity Institute (CEQ) at Tulane University. She is also a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, the Center for Global Development and the Inter-American Dialogue.

Professor Lustig’s research is on economic development, inequality and social policies with emphasis on Latin America. Among her recent publications, the Commitment to Equity Handbook: Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty is a step-by-step guide to assessing the impact of taxation and social spending on inequality and poverty in developing countries.

Prof. Lustig is a founding member and President Emeritus of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and was a co-director of the World Bank’s World Development Report 2000: Attacking Poverty. She serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Economic Inequality and is a member of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality’s Executive Council. Prof. Lustig served on the Atkinson Commission on Poverty, the High-level Group on Measuring Economic Performance and Social Progress, and the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance. She received her doctorate in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Picture of William MaloneyDr. William Maloney, a U.S. national, is Chief Economist for the Latin America and Caribbean Region at the World Bank. He joined the World Bank in 1998 as Senior Economist for the Latin America and Caribbean Region. He held various positions including Lead Economist in the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America, Lead Economist in the Development Economics Research Group, Chief Economist for Trade and Competitiveness and Global Lead on Innovation and Productivity. He was most recently Chief Economist for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions (EFI) Vice Presidency. From 2011 to 2014 he was Visiting Professor at the University of the Andes in Bogotá and worked closely with the Colombian government on innovation and firm upgrading issues.

Dr. Maloney received his doctorate in Economics from the University of California Berkeley (1990), his BA from Harvard University (1981), and studied at the University of the Andes in Bogota, Colombia (1982-83). His research activities and publications have focused on issues related to international trade and finance, developing country labor markets, and innovation and growth, including several flagship publications about Latin America and the Caribbean, including Informality: Exit and Inclusion and Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny. Most recently, he published The Innovation Paradox: Developing-Country Capabilities and the Unrealized Promise of Technological Catch-Up.

About the Moderator

Picture of Danny LeipzigerDr. Danny Leipziger is Professor of International Business and International Affairs at the George Washington University and Director of the Growth Dialogue. He is a faculty affiliate of the Institute for International Economic Policy. Prior to joining GW, Prof. Leipziger was Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management at the World Bank (2004-2009). Dr. Leipziger held senior management positions in the East Asia and Latin America Regions. He was the World Bank’s Director for Finance, Private Sector and Infrastructure for Latin America (1998-2004). He served previously in the U.S. Department of State and was a Member of the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff. Dr. Leipziger was Vice Chair of the Spence Commission on Growth and Development and he served on the WEF Council on Economic Progress.

An economist with a Ph. D. from Brown University, he has published widely in development economics, finance and banking, and on East Asia and Latin America. He is the author of several books, including Lessons of East Asia (U. of Michigan Press), Stuck in the Middle (Brookings Institution), and Globalization and Growth, and more than 50 refereed and published articles in journals and other outlets.

IMF World Economic Outlook: Recovery During a Pandemic – Health Concerns, Supply Disruptions, and Price Pressures

Friday, October 29th, 2021
10:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy hosted a discussion of the International Monetary Fund’s October 2021 World Economic Outlook titled “IMF World Economic Outlook: Recovery During a Pandemic – Health Concerns, Supply Disruptions, and Price Pressures.” This event featured John Bluedorn (IMF), Christoffer Koch (IMF), Tara Sinclair (GWU), Jean-Marc Natal (IMF), and Benjamin Jones (Northwestern University). This event was moderated by IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh.

The global economic recovery is continuing, even as the pandemic resurges. The fault lines opened up by COVID-19 are looking more persistent—near-term divergences are expected to leave lasting imprints on medium-term performance. Vaccine access and early policy support are the principal drivers of the gaps.

The IMF World Economic Outlook — the flagship publication of the IMF — details the state of the global economy and its prospects going forward. It also includes two analytical chapters considering key policy issues facing the world economy. Chapter 2 considers the appropriate policy mix as many countries face elevated or rising inflation. Chapter 3 examines how countries could use science and innovation policy to boost long run economic growth. This event presents an opportunity for policymakers and academics to consider these crucial issues.

 

Event Agenda

Welcoming Remarks
Jay Shambaugh, George Washington University

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
Presenter: John Bluedorn, International Monetary Fund

Chapter 2: Inflation Scares
Presenter: Christoffer Koch, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Tara Sinclair, George Washington University

Chapter 3: Research and Innovation: Fighting the Pandemic and Boosting Long-Term Growth
Presenter: Jean-Marc Natal, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Benjamin Jones, Northwestern University

General Q&A and Concluding Remarks
Moderated by Jay Shambaugh, George Washington University

 

About the Speakers:

Picture John BluedornJohn Bluedorn is a deputy division chief on the World Economic Outlook in the IMF’s Research Department. Previously, he has been a senior economist in the Research Department’s Structural Reforms Unit, a member of the IMF’s euro area team in the European Department and worked on the World Economic Outlook as an economist, contributing to a number of chapters. Before joining the IMF, he was a professor at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, after a post-doctoral fellowship at the University of Oxford. Mr. Bluedorn has published on a range of topics in international finance, macroeconomics, and development. He holds a PhD from the University of California at Berkeley.

 

Picture of Christoffer Koch

Christoffer Koch works in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. Prior to that he had spent a decade as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. His policy and research interests are in macroeconomics, money and banking. He obtained his undergraduate degree from the University of St Andrews, and his PhD from the University of Oxford where he was a Rhodes Scholar.

 

 

 

Picture of Jean-Marc NatalJean-Marc Natal is Deputy Division Chief in the World Economic Studies Division in the IMF’s Research Department. Prior to joining the IMF, he was Deputy Director of Research at the Swiss National Bank where he advised the Board on quarterly monetary policy decisions and communication. Mr Natal has taught Monetary Theory and Policy at the University of Geneva and has published in various economics journals, including the Economic Journal and the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. His research covers the study of monetary and exchange rate regimes, policy transmission, inflation dynamics and macroeconomic modeling. He holds a PhD in International Economics from the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Tara M. SinclairTara M. Sinclair is a faculty affiliate of the Institute for International Economic Policy and professor of economics and international affairs at the George Washington University, where she has been on faculty since earning her PhD in economics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2005. Professor Sinclair is a senior fellow at job search site Indeed, the co-director of the H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, a member of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Technical Advisory Committee, a research professor at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) in Germany, and a research associate at the Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA). She has been a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a visiting associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin, and an academic visitor at the Australian National University and the University of New South Wales. Professor Sinclair also serves as the moderator for the monthly inflation meet-ups for the National Association for Business Economics. Professor Sinclair’s research focuses on developing new tools and data sources to improve decision making. Her early research built empirical models to study economic fluctuations and trends, and these models remain a continuing thread in her publications. As part of the Indeed Hiring Lab, Professor Sinclair uses Indeed’s unique labor market data to develop new economic indicators. As co-director of the H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, she evaluates real time economic data and forecasts with a focus on their role in policy. Professor Sinclair regularly speaks at conferences and with the press on issues related to forecasting, recessions, labor markets, big data, macroeconomics, and policy issues.

Picture of Benjamin F. JonesBenjamin F. Jones is the Gordon and Llura Gund Family Professor of Entrepreneurship, a Professor of Strategy, and the faculty director of the Kellogg Innovation and Entrepreneurship Initiative. An economist by training, Professor Jones studies the sources of economic growth in advanced economies, with an emphasis on innovation, entrepreneurship, and scientific progress. He also studies global economic development, including the roles of education, climate, and national leadership in explaining the wealth and poverty of nations. His research has appeared in journals such as Science, the Quarterly Journal of Economics and the American Economic Review, and has been profiled in media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and The New Yorker. A former Rhodes Scholar, Professor Jones served in 2010-2011 as the senior economist for macroeconomics for the White House Council of Economic Advisers and earlier served in the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Professor Jones is a non-resident senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

 

IMF WEO Chapter Summaries

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

The global economic recovery continues amid a resurging pandemic that poses unique policy challenges. Gaps in expected recoveries across economy groups have widened since the July forecast, for instance between advanced economies and low-income developing countries. Meanwhile, inflation has increased markedly in the United States and some emerging market economies. As restrictions are relaxed, demand has accelerated, but supply has been slower to respond. Although price pressures are expected to subside in most countries in 2022, inflation prospects are highly uncertain. These increases in inflation are occurring even as employment is below pre-pandemic levels in many economies, forcing difficult choices on policymakers. Strong policy effort at the multilateral level is needed on vaccine deployment, climate change, and international liquidity to strengthen global economic prospects. National policies to complement the multilateral effort will require much more tailoring to country-specific conditions and better targeting, as policy space constraints become more binding the longer the pandemic lasts.
Chapter 2: Inflation Scares
Despite recent increases in headline inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. Looking ahead, headline inflation is projected to peak in the final months of 2021 but is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022 for most economies. But given the recovery’s uncharted nature, considerable uncertainty remains, and inflation could exceed forecasts for a variety of reasons. Clear communication, combined with appropriate monetary and fiscal policies, can help prevent “inflation scares” from unhinging inflation expectations.
Chapter 3: Research and Innovation: Fighting the Pandemic and Boosting Long-Term Growth
How can policymakers boost long-term growth in the post–COVID-19 global economy? This chapter looks at the role of basic research—undirected, theoretical, or experimental work. Using rich new data that draw on connections from individual innovations and scientific articles, this chapter shows that basic research is an essential input into innovation, with wide-ranging international spillovers and long-lasting economic impacts.

Gender Inclusiveness in Trade: Barriers, Challenges, and Opportunities

Thursday, November 18th 2021
9:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. ET
Lindner Commons and Online via Zoom
There was a networking portion for those in person from 10:30 – 11:00 a.m.

This was a discussion leading up to the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC12), where the panel addressed the nexus between gender and international trade. As the issue of gender equality rises to the top of public policy debate globally, it is critical to consider how trade may impact gender, including the barriers, the challenges and opportunities women face as they participate in trade as entrepreneurs, traders or workers. This event featured panelists Renata Amaral (WTO Program on Women in Trade), Jamaica Gayle (Global Innovation Forum), and Nadia Bourely (Canadian Embassy to the U.S.A.). Lisa Schroeter (Dow Chemical and IIEP Executive Circle) moderated, and IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh provided welcoming remarks.

This event was organized by members of the recently launched Executive Circle of George Washington University’s Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP). Established by the IIEP, the Circle is a leadership group designed to support and disseminate research and policies connected to global finance, trade, and development. Its members are senior leaders at the highest levels of their fields, and dynamic mid-career and young professionals who exhibit extraordinary potential, all who believe in the power of academic research and analysis to improve policy and enhance the wellbeing and prosperity of people around the globe. The event was co-sponsored by the Association of Women in International Trade (WIIT) and the Washington International Trade Association (WITA). The Association for Women in International Trade (WIIT) works to promote the professional development of women in international trade and business and to raise public awareness of the importance of international trade to economic development.

About the Panelists:

Picture of Renata AmaralRenata Amaral is an experienced international trade lawyer, with an extensive and proven record of successful engagement at the WTO dispute settlement, bilateral and regional trade negotiations. She holds a Ph.D. from Maastricht University and currently serves as Adjunct Professor at the American University Washington College of Law, where she co-directs the certificate program on WTO and US Trade Law and Policy. She is the founder of Women Inside Trade, a non-profit international organization that aims to contribute to the empowerment of women through its global network of professionals, specialized training and leadership development, and a member of the recently created WTO Gender Research Hub.

Picture of Jamaica GayleJamaica Gayle serves as Acting Executive Director of the National Foreign Trade Council’s Global Innovation Forum (GIF), a nonprofit that connects small businesses and policymakers to highlight the opportunities and challenges of engaging in the global marketplace. In this role, she leads the organization’s work advocating for trade policies and technology solutions that enable inclusive, sustainable growth. She is also responsible for managing engagements with international organizations including the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) on issues related to small businesses and inclusive trade. Jamaica started her career with the National Association of Manufacturers, working with the policy and government relations division. She holds a B.A. in Political Science from the American University in Washington, DC.

Picture of Nadia BourélyNadia Bourély is the Minister Counsellor for Economic and Trade Policy at the Embassy of Canada in Washington D.C. In this capacity, she leads the Embassy’s economic and trade policy team. Prior to joining the Embassy in February 2020, Ms. Bourély held various positions at Global Affairs Canada, including Director for Trade Policy and Negotiations, Senior Legal Counsel in the Trade Law Bureau and Deputy Director for Strategic Policy Planning. She was also Senior Analyst for the Americas at the Foreign Affairs Secretariat of the Privy Council Office. Ms. Bourély served abroad as Senior Trade Commissioner and Counsellor at the Embassy of Canada to the Republic of Indonesia and as First Secretary at Canada’s Mission to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Prior to joining Global Affairs Canada, Ms. Bourély worked in private legal practice in Montréal, Québec, and at the Secretariat for Legal Affairs of the Organization of American States in Washington D.C. Ms. Bourély is a member of the Québec Bar and holds a LL.B. from the Université de Montréal and a LL.M. (Honours) from the McGill University Institute of Comparative Law.

About the Moderator:

Lisa SchroeterLisa Schroeter is the Global Director of Trade and Investment Policy for Dow. As part of the corporate Global Government Affairs team, Lisa’s responsibilities focus on trade policy and regulations, trade negotiations, and investment issues that foster growth in Dow’s global businesses. The role drives bilateral, regional and multilateral strategies to promote policies that secure market access and facilitates global trade across Dow’s value chains and manufacturing.

Her role has direct responsibility for developing corporate strategies across trade policy, from tariff reduction to regulatory simplification; from export controls and sanctions to IP protection and to promote growth of environmental markets and diverse, inclusive workforces. Lisa regularly works with international colleagues and business leaders to engage on trade policy issues critical to drive Dow’s operations around the world. For the industry, she leads the global chemical industry trade association (ICCA) work on trade policy and global regulatory cooperation.

Before joining Dow, Lisa was the Executive Director of the TransAtlantic Business Dialogue (TABD). TABD was a unique trade-facilitation process by which American and European CEOs worked with the U.S. Administration and the European Commission to implement practical, detailed recommendations. Ms. Schroeter joined TABD in 1999 and managed the process on behalf of the Boeing Company, PricewaterhouseCoopers, United Technologies Corporation and Xerox.

Lisa is currently Chair of the WIIT Trust, driving a women’s empowerment and skills sharing program with local universities and was previously the President of WIIT (Association of Women in International Trade). In addition, she is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); and a Board member of the Washington International Trade Association (WITA). She recently and successfully completed the Georgetown University Qiyadat Women’s Leadership program.

As a long-term DC resident, Lisa is also a Board Member of Cultural Tourism DC, celebrating the unique heritage and history of the U.S. Capital.

Welcoming Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

GW Students, Faculty, and Staff are welcome to attend this event in person at the address below or via Zoom:

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Family Commons, Suite 602
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

Alumni, Guests, and General Public: Non-GW individuals are able to attend in person, but they have to complete the Covid registration form that GW now requires.

There will be a networking portion for those in person from 10:30-11:00 a.m.

A note about COVID-19: The health and well-being of GW students, alumni, friends, faculty, and staff remains a top priority for GW and all alumni events will proceed in compliance with all state, local, and public health guidelines.

Please complete the above form to officially register. Please register yourself individually for possible contact tracing or to ensure receipt of Zoom information. For questions, please contact the IIEP team at iiep@gwu.edu.

Logos of IIEP, WITA, and WIIT

What Can We Hope For at MC12?

Thursday, November 18th, 2021
11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. EST
via Zoom

The 12th Ministerial Conference of the WTO, being held November 30 – December 3rd, comes at a critical time for organization and the world trading system. WITA and GWU discussed what might be achieved at the Ministerial, and what that may signal for the future of the organization – and the multilateral trading system as a whole.

This event was free to attend.

Featured Remarks:

Alan Wm. Wolff, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE); former Deputy Director General of the WTO

Discussion Featuring:

Jake Colvin, President, National Foreign Trade Council

Isabel Jarrett, Manager, Reducing Harmful Fisheries Subsidies, The Pew Charitable Trusts

Andrew Jory, Minister-Counsellor (Trade), Embassy of Australia

Sharon Bomer Lauritsen, Principal, AgTrade Strategies, LLC, on behalf of Aggies for WTO Reform; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Agricultural Affairs and Commodity Policy, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

Catherine Mellor, Vice President, UPS

Moderator: Michael Moore, Director, MA in International Economic Policy (MIEP), Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University

Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2021 Unmasking Disparities: Ethnicity, Race, and Gender

Monday, October 11th, 2021
11:00 a.m.  – 12:15 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

In this first event in the continuation of our seminar series on Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, jointly hosted by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford, the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University, speakers presented the extensive findings of the 2021 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI) Report Unmasking Disparities: Ethnicity, Race, and Gender. The global MPI Report is jointly produced by OPHI and HDRO, with results and report being updated each year. The 2021 global MPI presents findings on multidimensional poverty around the world, using the most recent data from 109 countries, covering 5.9 billion people, and including changes over time in 80 countries. For the first time, the 2021 global MPI includes findings for trends with up to three points in time, detailed disaggregations of global MPI results by racial and ethnic groups, gender of household head, and analyses on multidimensional poverty and the socio-economic implications of COVID-19.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Sabina AlkireSabina Alkire (Director, Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford) directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), a research centre within the Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford. Dr Alkire works on a new approach to measuring poverty and well-being that goes beyond the traditional focus on income and growth. This multidimensional approach to measurement includes social goals, such as health, education, nutrition, standard of living and other valuable aspects of life. She devised a new method for measuring multidimensional poverty with her colleague James Foster (OPHI Research Associate and Professor of Economics at George Washington University) that has advantages over other poverty measures and has been adopted by the Mexican Government, the Bhutanese Government in their ‘Gross National Happiness Index’ and the United Nations Development Programme. Dr Alkire has been called upon to provide input and advice to several initiatives seeking to take a broader approach to well-being rather than just economic growth, for example, the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (instigated by President Sarkozy); the United Nations Human Development Programme Human Development Report Office; the European Commission; and the UK’s Department for International Development.

Picture of Yanchun ZhangYanchun Zhang (Chief of Statistics, Human Development Report Office, United Nations Development Programme) has more than twenty years of quantitative research experience on a wide range of economic and sustainable development topics. She has published articles on international macroeconomics, climate change and development, economic vulnerabilities and social protection in refereed academic and policy journals.Prior to HDRO, she served as Chief of the Commodities Branch at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in Geneva from 2019 to 2020, leading analytical research, which includes a biennial statistics report State of Commodities Dependence, and capacity-building projects in a dozen of commodity dependent developing countries in Africa and Asia. Prior to that, she was Chief of the Commodity Policy Implementation and Outreach Section from 2014 to 2019, in charge of formulating demand-driven technical cooperation initiatives, mobilizing multilateral and bilateral funding sources and coordinating the preparation of publicity materials and press releases for outreach efforts.Before UNCTAD, she had worked at UNDP in New York from 2007 to 2013 as a Policy Specialist, conducting original research on emerging development topics that are strategically important for the organization. From 2003 to 2006, she was an assistant professor at San Francisco State University, teaching and researching on econometrics, statistics and macroeconomics. Prior to her academic career, she also worked for the World Bank’s Development Research Group.She holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in Economics with specializations on econometrics, development economics and international economics from University of Virginia, U.S.A, and a B.A. degree in Economics with honors from Shanghai Fudan University, China.

Picture of Heriberto TapiaHeriberto Tapia (Policy Specialist, Human Development Report Office, United Nations Development Programme) is a senior member of the writing-research team at HDRO. He has worked on Human Development Reports 2015, 2016 and 2017. Previously, he served in the Executive Office of UNDP (2012-2014) and in the Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean (1998-2005). He has worked as a consultant to the IMF, UNDP and ECLAC. Furthermore, he has been lecturer at Columbia University (New York), University of Chile (Santiago) and University Diego Portales (Santiago). Heriberto holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University, and a Master’s degree in economics and a Commercial Engineering degree from the University of Chile.

Picture of Sophie Scharlin-PetteeSophie Scharlin-Pettee (Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford) supports the outreach team in policy programming. She has worked on the Changes over Time project, which focuses on trends in multidimensional poverty, harmonising earlier data to the specifications of the 2019 global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Previously, she contributed to the data preparation, computation, analysis, and report publication for the global MPI revision in 2018 and the annual global MPI release in 2019.

Before OPHI, Sophie supported ESRC-funded research investigating dual career couples’ life course outcomes from a time-use, longitudinal, and cross-national perspective; she also interned at the Consortium on Gender, Security, and Human Rights, where she delivered a background paper on the political economies of peace-building, among other research activities.

 

Did U.S. Politicians Expect the China Shock?

Friday, October 15th, 2021
9:30 a.m. – 11 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

 

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference takes place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

In the two decades straddling China’s WTO accession, the China Shock, i.e. the rapid trade integration of China in the early 2000’s, has had a profound economic impact across U.S. regions. It is now both an internationally litigated issue and the casus belli for a global trade war. Were its consequences unexpected? Did U.S. politicians have imperfect information about the extent of China Shock’s repercussions in their district at the time when they voted on China’s Normal Trade Relations status? Or did they have accurate expectations, yet placed a relatively low weight on the subconstituencies that ended up being adversely affected?

In this inaugural event, HKU’s Bingjing Li discussed how information sets, expectations, and preferences of U.S. politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices in regards to the China Shock. Prof. Li applies a moment inequality approach designed to deliver unbiased estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. Employing repeated roll call votes in the U.S. House of Representatives on China’s Normal Trade Relations status, she formally tests what information politicians had at the time of their decision and consistently estimates the weights that constituent interests, ideology, and other factors had in congressional votes. She will show how assuming perfect foresight of the shocks biases the role of constituent interests and how standard proxies to modeling politician’s expectations bias the estimation. She cannot reject that politicians could predict the initial China Shock in the early 1990’s, but not around 2000, when China started entering new sectors, and find a moderate role of constituent interests, compared to ideology. Overall, she will show how U.S. legislators appeared to have had accurate information on the China Shock, but did not place substantial weight on its adverse consequences.

Boston University’s James Feigenbaum served as a discussant and IIEP’s Maggie Chen moderated with an introduction from IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Bingjing LiDr. Bingjing Li is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Hong Kong. Her main research fields are international trade and applied microeconomics. Using both micro data and quantitative models, her works focus on understanding the interactions of international trade with development and political economy factors, and their consequences.

 

 

About the Discussant:

Picture of James FeigenbaumJames Feigenbaum is an Assistant Professor in the Boston University Department of Economics. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER in the Development of the American Economy program and a Junior Faculty Fellow at BU’s Hariri Institute for Computing. James studies economic history, labor economics, and political economy. His research interests include understanding the effects of economic shocks on politics and politicians. Prof. Feigenbaum received his PhD in Economics from Harvard University and his B.A. with High Honors in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Maggie ChenMaggie Chen is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. She has served as Director of GW’s Institute for International Economic Policy and worked as an economist in the research department of the World Bank and a consultant for the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Professor Chen’s research areas include multinational firms, international trade, and regional trade agreements. Her work has been published in academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. She is a co-editor of Economic Inquiry and an associate editor of Economic Modeling.

Introduction by:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

China Conference Sponsors

Governing the New Voluntary Carbon Markets

Tuesday, October 19th, 2021
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to an IIEP/ASU-Thunderbird event on Tuesday, October 19th, entitled “Governing the New Voluntary Carbon Markets.” This event will feature Mark Kenber (VCMI) and Kavita Prakash-Mani (Mandai Nature).

Averting climate catastrophe will require every available tool, including markets. Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) could complement government policies and drive tens of billions of dollars into activities that sequester greenhouse gases, avoid new emissions, and help move the global economy toward net zero as well as protect and restore nature and benefit people. But markets do not naturally focus on such public purposes. A new multi-stakeholder initiative, the outcome of the recent high-level Task Force on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets, now aims to ensure that these markets scale quickly while maintaining their public purpose at the core. Two members of the initiative’s newly formed Board of Directors will draw on their extensive experience to provide insights into the urgent challenges and opportunities of this new kind of market.

This webinar was moderated by Ann Florini of ASU-Thunderbird. IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma provided welcoming remarks. This event was co-sponsored by the Thunderbird School of Management, Arizona State University, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Mark KenbarMark Kenbar serves as VCMI’s co-Executive Director for External Affairs. He has worked on environment, climate and energy issues for over two decades, in government, NGOs and the private sector. He is currently Managing Director of Orbitas, a Climate Advisers initiative that aims to make capital providers aware of climate transition risks to investments in tropical soft commodity production and shift their lending and investment decisions accordingly. With a background in development and environmental economics, Mark has worked across various areas of environmental and climate policy, with a particular focus on the use of economic instruments in the pursuit of sustainable development. His previous roles include: Chief Executive of Mongoose Energy Ltd, the UK’s largest developer and manager of community energy projects; Policy Director and later Chief Executive at The Climate Group; Senior Policy Officer at WWF International’s Climate Change Programme; Policy and Programme Director at Fundación Natura in Quito; Climate Change Advisor to the Ecuadorian government; and lecturer at both the Catholic University in Quito and the Institute of Development Studies in the UK. He has recently been elected to the Board of Directors of the TSVCM and is currently also a board member of Community Energy England and Verra, Chair of the Reneum Advisory Council and Brighton and Hove Energy Services Coop and a member of the RE100 Advisory Committee.

Picture of Kavita Prakash-ManiKavita Prakash-Mani is the CEO for Mandai Nature, a new environmental conservation NGO established in Singapore by Temasek and Mandai Park Holding, with a focus on SE Asia. Mandai Nature helps protect threatened species from extinction, especially those endemic to Asia and often overlooked, addressing such issues as wildlife trade and the fragmentation of habitats. It works with partners to drive nature-based solutions for climate change, and it works closely with local communities and organizations to create economic opportunities and invest in building skills and conservation capacity on the ground. Prior to this, Kavita was the Global Conservation Director at WWF, leading the development of WWF strategy and approach, partnership development and engagement, planning and performance as well as campaigns. Before this position, she led WWF’s global practice on Markets – engaging companies, communities and citizens/consumers. Previously, Kavita was Executive Director of Grow Asia in Singapore (a World Economic Forum initiative); the Global Head, Food Security Agenda at Syngenta International; and Executive Director, SustainAbility in London. She has worked at the World Resources Institute in Washington DC and Glaxo SmithKline in India. Kavita is a member of Unilever Sustainability Advisory Council. She has been on numerous councils and boards including the Tropical Forest Alliance, Science Based Targets for Nature, World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Food Security and Nutrition, Volans, SustainAbility Inc., and the Institute for Human Rights and Business. She recently joined the Board of Directors of the new governance body for voluntary carbon markets.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Ann FloriniAnn Florini is Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, D.C. campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University founding director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations including government, civil society, and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

Welcome Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and  International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF- Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, Dr. Sharma was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. His current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of wellbeing – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

Thunderbird Finance and Sustainability Series

The global financial system is facing new pressures to become “sustainable” – not only financially stable, but simultaneously environmentally friendly and socially inclusive. These pressures are partly political, in reaction to the increasing financialization of the global economy and the sector’s failure to steer investment to meet the needs of society. New financial technologies (“fintech”) pose yet more pressures on incumbent financial institutions but also offer great opportunities for the creation of what some are calling “citizen-centric” finance. Top public authorities are convening in the new Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. The private sector has already moved rapidly from CSR to considering broader forms of ESG (environmental, social, governance) risks and opportunities in investments. Thunderbird’s Finance and Sustainability webinar series explores these urgent questions with leading practitioners and thinkers.

The Diffusion of Female Empowerment: Evidence from Social Networks in India

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2021
12:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.
via Zoom

Trade & Development Workshop

Speaker: David Yanagizawa-Drott (Zurich, formerly Harvard HKS)

The Diffusion of Female Empowerment: Evidence from Social Networks in India

Abstract: Do men may maintain privileged positions in society simply because most such positions are held by other men? If some women gain access to positions of power, does female empowerment diffuse via social networks? We study these questions in the political context of elections to the Parliament of India, Lok Sabha. To measure social networks, we make use the universe of Facebook friendship links between constituencies across the country. To identify causal effects, we exploit variation in close election wins in the network of each constituency. The results show that male incumbents benefit from having other male incumbents in the social network of the voters; they are more likely to remain in power. When females randomly win seats, female empowerment (entry, votes, representation) diffuses to other constituencies depending on pre-existing conditions. There is little to no diffusion to areas where female empowerment is very weak to begin. Diffusion appears to occur only when empowerment is already relatively high. Together, the results indicate that unequal representation in the status quo tends to be self-reinforcing, but dynamic trajectories towards equality are possible once sufficient conditions are met.

India’s Economy in a Post-Pandemic World

Wednesday, October 20th, 2021
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. EDT / 6:30 – 8:00 p.m. IST
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the second webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This was a platform for dialogue and debate, and we invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The second event featured Dr. Sajjid Z. Chinoy, J.P. Morgan’s Chief India Economist, discussing “India’s Economy in a Post-Pandemic World.” Dr. Poonam Gupta (Director General of NCAER) and Dr. Shankar Acharya (former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India) provided discussant remarks.

What is the nature of India’s recovery from COVID? Where are pressures most evident and what opportunities has COVID-19 thrown up? Why is inflation so sticky in the wake of ostensible slack? What role can monetary and fiscal policy play in the near term? Where will India’s growth come from in a post-pandemic world: Consumption? Investment? Exports? Public Investment? Finally, what do we know about India’s underlying growth potential, particularly investment and productivity growth? Our distinguished speaker and discussants will address these and related issues in this second talk of 2021-22 on Envisioning India.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Sajjid ChinoyDr. Sajjid Z. Chinoy is J.P. Morgan’s Chief India Economist and a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. He served as a member of the Advisory Council to India’s 15th Finance Commission and has previously served on several RBI committees and task-forces (Offshore Rupee Markets, Secondary Market for Corporate Loans) including the RBI’s “Expert Committee to Revise and Strengthen the Monetary Policy Framework” that proposed inflation targeting in 2014. He was a consultant to the FRBM Review Committee that proposed a new fiscal anchor in India in 2016. He has been ranked by Asset Magazine as one of the best individuals in fixed income research in India for every year since 2014. Sajjid has authored several publications on the Indian economy including co-editing a book on Indian economic reform with Dr. Anne O. Krueger, former First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF. He has previously worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and McKinsey & Company, and holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Poonam GuptaDr. Poonam Gupta is the Director General of NCAER. Before joining NCAER, she was Lead Economist, Global Macro and Market Research, International Finance Corporation (IFC); and Lead Economist for India at the World Bank. Her prior appointments include the Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP); Professor at Indian Council for Research on International Economics Relations (ICRIER); Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics; and, Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Her research has been published in leading scholarly journals and featured in The Economist, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal. She holds a PhD in International Economics from the University of Maryland, USA and a Masters in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi.

Picture of Shankar AcharyaDr. Shankar Acharya is one of India’s leading policy economists. As the longest-serving Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India (1993-2001), he was deeply involved in the economic reforms of the 1990s and served three successive governments of the Congress, the United Front and the National Democratic Alliance. He also served as Member of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (1997-2000), Member, Twelfth Finance Commission (2004) and Member, National Security Advisory Board (2009-2013). He was non-executive Chairman of Kotak Mahindra Bank for 12 years (2006-2018), one of India’s newest and most successful private commercial banks. He also served as a member of the Reserve Bank of India’s Advisory Committee on Monetary Policy (2005-2016). Earlier, he worked in the World Bank (1971-1982 and 1991-1993), where he led the World Development Report team for 1979 and was Research Adviser to the Bank. He returned to India in 1982 as Senior Fellow, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), before joining the Government as Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance (1985-90).

Since 2001 he has been Honorary Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). He has authored eleven books (mostly on Indian economic issues and policies) and numerous scholarly articles in academic journals. His eight most recent books are Essays on Macroeconomic Policy and Growth in India (2006, Oxford University Press, Delhi); Can India Grow without Bharat? (2007, Academic Foundation, Delhi); India and Global Crisis (2009, Academic Foundation, Delhi); (edited with Rakesh Mohan) India’s Economy: Performance and Challenges (2010, Oxford University Press, Delhi; paperback edition, 2011); India after the Global Crisis (2012, Orient BlackSwan, Delhi), Towards Economic Crisis (2012–14) and Beyond (2015, Academic Foundation, Delhi), India’s Economy 2015-2000 (2021, Academic Foundation, Delhi) and An Economist at Home and Abroad (Harper Collins, 2021, Delhi).

Dr Acharya did his B.A. from Oxford, graduating with First Class honours in Politics, Philosophy and Economics in 1967, before proceeding to Harvard University to earn his Ph.D. in Economics in 1972.

Are Pitcairn Island (UK), China and Taiwan really joining CPTPP?

Wednesday, November 3rd, 2021
3:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. EST
via Zoom

WITA and the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University discussed the potential for the UK and China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Ken Levinson, WITA Executive Director, provided welcoming remarks.

Panel Discussion:

The Honorable Tim Groser, former Ambassador of New Zealand, and former Minister of Trade

Wendy Cutler, former US negotiator of the original TransPacific Partnership, and current Senior Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute

Shanker Singham, CEO, Competere, and Director of the International Trade and Competition Unit at the Institute of Economic Affairs, and Head of Trade at the Centre for Economics and Business Research

Led and moderated by Jay Shambaugh, Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University, and former Member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors

From the Elliott School to Global Finance Leader

Thursday, November 4th, 2021
3:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. ET
Lindner Family Commons, Suite 602, and Online via Zoom

From the Elliott School to Global Finance Leader: A Discussion with James Quigley, ESIA BA ’82

Inaugural Wenger Family Lecture

Ever wonder what it’s like to be a global banker who rose to the top of one of the largest financial firms in the nation? In the Inaugural Wenger Family Lecture on International Business and Finance, James Quigley, BA ’82, a forty-year Wall Street veteran who joined Merrill Lynch not long after graduation day, discussed his career lessons and successes in conversation with Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres. Mr. Quigley’s work has taken him around the world – and his success stems in large part from his ability to understand cultural nuances in dozens of nations. This event was presented by the Elliott School Office of Development and Alumni Relations and cosponsored by the Henry E. & Consuelo S. Wenger Foundation and the Institute for International Economic Policy.

About the Speaker:

Picture of James QuigleyJames Quigley is a Managing Director and was named Executive Vice Chairman of International Corporate and Investment Banking at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in 2010. He is responsible for enhancing the firm’s relationships with key private and public sector issuer clients and institutional investors globally to ensure delivery of the bank’s full capabilities across asset classes and product sets. Previously, he was president of Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Latin America Group and managed all activities of the broader institution within the region.

Prior to Bank of America and Merrill Lynch’s merger, Quigley was Vice Chairman of Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc., Executive Chairman of Merrill Lynch International and Head of Latin America Global Markets & Investment Banking. As Executive Chairman of Merrill Lynch International, he served as partner and advisor to the global business heads and BlackRock, Inc. to maximize revenue and strategic growth opportunities across key markets in origination, trading, private client and principal investing businesses. As Head of Latin America Global, he defined business strategy in the region, integrating country, industry and product capabilities. He was also responsible for integrating businesses in Canada and for client coverage in the CEEMEA Region. As Vice Chairman, Quigley worked with the leaders of Global Markets & Investment Banking’s core businesses and regional executive management to prioritize and implement client coverage and origination strategies to maximize revenue opportunities, including aligning the global client origination efforts with those of the Merrill Lynch Bank Group.

Quigley, who joined Merrill Lynch in January 1983 in the New York Debt Syndicate Group, has held a variety of senior positions including Senior Vice President and Head of Client Strategies for Global Debt Markets, Head of GDM’s Global Issuer Client Group, Executive Director of the Global Syndicate Group, Head of the U.S. High Grade Syndicate Group and Head of the Debt Transactions Group.

At the Elliott School, Quigley served on the Board of Advisors for 12 years, from 2000-2008 and 2014-2018. He currently serves on the Executive Circle for the Institute for International Economic Policy.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres is Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Dean Ayres is a foreign policy practitioner and award-winning author with senior experience in the government, nonprofit, and private sectors. She was Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where she remains an adjunct senior fellow. From 2010 to 2013 Ayres served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia in the Barack Obama administration, where she covered all issues across a dynamic region of 1.3 billion people at the time (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and provided policy direction for four U.S. embassies and four consulates. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Her most recent book is, Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World (OUP, 2018). She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago.

This event is presented by the Elliott School Office of Development and Alumni Relations and cosponsored by the Henry E. & Consuelo S. Wenger Foundation and the Institute for International Economic Policy.

GW Students, Faculty, and Staff are welcome to attend this event in person at the address below or via Zoom:

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Family Commons, Suite 602
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

Alumni, Guests, and General Public: Online via Zoom. Details for joining the event by computer or phone will be sent the day before the event. Please be mindful of the time zone of the presentation (ET).

A reception follows the discussion for the in-person audience.

A note about COVID-19: The health and well-being of GW students, alumni, friends, faculty, and staff remains a top priority for GW and all alumni events will proceed in compliance with all state, local, and public health guidelines.

Please complete the above form (“Register Here”) to officially register. Please register yourself individually for possible contact tracing and to ensure receipt of Zoom information. For questions, please contact Elaine Garbe in Elliott School Alumni Programs at egarbe@gwu.edu.

One Currency, Two Markets: China’s Attempt to Internationalize the Renminbi

Friday, November 5th, 2021
9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

This was the second event in the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference takes place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

This event featured HKU’s Edwin Lai to discuss his recent book titled “One Currency, Two Markets: China’s Attempt to Internationalize the Renminbi.” The Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA) Representative Director Dr. Masahiro Kawai provided discussant remarks. In this book, Edwin Lai discusses economic analysis of the future of the international monetary system and the USD, and the rising importance of the RMB. He points out the unsustainability of the dollar standard in the long run, that China has unique incentives to internationalize its currency, and how Hong Kong plays an important role. He explains the real reasons for China to internationalize its currency, including using external commitments to force financial sector reforms (‘daobi’ in Chinese). His book applies economic theories accessible to laymen to establish that financial development and openness are crucial for RMB internationalization to succeed, and that greater exchange rate volatility is inevitable due to the ‘open-economy trilemma’. Employing the ‘gravity model’, the book predicts quantitatively that the RMB is likely to be a distant third payment currency after the USD and the euro, but surpassing the Japanese yen in the next decade.

IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh and Elliott School Vice Dean James Foster provided welcome and introductory remarks. Barbara Stallings moderated the event. James Foster introducde Edwin Lai and Barbara Stallings introduced Dr. Masahiro Kawai.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Edwin LaiEdwin Lai is Professor of Economics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology since July 2009, and later jointly appointed as the Director of the Center for Economic Development and jointly appointed as Professor in the Division of Public Policy. He was Senior Research Economist and Adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas of the Federal Reserve System of the USA, from August 2007 to June 2009. Before that he was Assistant Professor at Vanderbilt University, Associate Professor at City University of Hong Kong and Associate Professor at Singapore Management University. His main research areas are international economics, industrial organization, growth and internationalization of renminbi. He is a leading scholar in the study of intellectual property rights in the global economy. He has published in American Economic Review, RAND Journal of Economics, International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics and other highly respected journals in economics.

Prof. Lai has been a consultant to the World Bank, visiting scholar/fellow with Boston University, Princeton University, Kobe University, CESifo (University of Munich), Hitotsubashi University, and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. He is Associate Editor of Review of International Economics (Wiley Publisher), a Fellow of the CESifo Research Network (U of Munich), and a board member of Asia-Pacific Trade Seminars (APTS) Group. He obtained his B.Sc. in engineering from the University of Hong Kong of Science and Technology and A.M. and Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University.

About the Discussant:

Picture of Masahiro KawaiDr. Masahiro Kawai is the Representative Director of the Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA) in Niigata, Japan. While teaching Asian finance at the University of Tokyo as Professor Emeritus, he also serves as a Councilor of the Bank of Japan, a Senior Fellow of the Policy Research Institute of Japan’s Finance Ministry, and a Distinguished Research Fellow of the Japan Forum on International Relations. Dr. Kawai has published numerous books and articles on open-economy macroeconomics, economic and financial globalization, regional economic integration in Asia, and the international monetary system. He co-edited a book with Barry Eichengreen, entitled Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges (Brookings Institution Press, 2015).

Previously, Dr. Kawai held positions as: Dean of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Institute; Special Advisor to the ADB President in charge of regional economic cooperation and integration; Deputy Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs and President of the Policy Research Institute of Japan’s Ministry of Finance; Chief Economist for the World Bank’s East Asia and the Pacific Region; a Professor of Economics at the University of Tokyo and an Associate Professor of Economics at The Johns Hopkins University; and a Research Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

He graduated with his B.A. degree in Economics from the University of Tokyo’s Economics Department. He earned his M.S. degree in Statistics and Ph.D. degree in Economics from Stanford University.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Barbara StallingsBarbara Stallings is William R. Rhodes Research Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and editor of Studies in Comparative International Development. She is also a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University. Before arriving at Brown in 2002, she was director of the Economic Development Division of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, Chile (1993–2002), and professor of political economy at the University of Wisconsin–Madison (1977–1993). She has doctorates in economics (University of Cambridge) and in political science (Stanford University) and is a specialist in development economics, with an emphasis on development strategies and international finance. In addition, she works on issues of economic relations between Asia and Latin America and comparisons between the two regions. Her recent books are Innovation and Inclusion in Latin America: Strategies to Avoid the Middle Income Trap (2016) and Promoting Development: The Political Economy of East Asian Foreign Aid (2017). Her most recent book, Dependency in the Twenty-First Century?: The Political Economy of China-Latin America Relations (2020), was selected as one of Foreign Affairs’ best books of 2020. She has taught at various universities in China and elsewhere in Asia; currently she is a distinguished visiting professor at the Schwarzman Program at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

Welcome and Introductory Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Picture of James FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Vice Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

Inequality and the Centrifugal Nature of the Labor Market

Wednesday, September 29, 2021
12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.
via Zoom

This was a joint Facing Inequality Series and Rethinking Capitalism & Democracy Series event featuring Peter Dietsch (University of Victoria).

Globalization and technological change are the two staple explanations of the income inequality between the relatively skilled and unskilled segments of the labor market. While recognizing their importance, this webinar turns the spotlight on another, neglected driver of income inequality. The mechanics of the labor market have a tendency to allow skilled workers to extract a significant wage premium. Arguably, the magnitude of this premium is neither just nor necessary for a functioning labor market. Interestingly, the policy response required to contain this centrifugal nature of the labor market differs markedly from the standard remedies to reduce income inequality.

Kathryn Holston (Harvard and World Bank) provided discussant remarks. This webinar was moderated by IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh with introductory remarks by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma. The event was co-sponsored by GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Seminar, organized by Professor Trevor Jackson.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Peter Dietsch Peter Dietsch is a professor in the Department of Philosophy at the University of Victoria, British Columbia. His research focuses on issues of economic ethics, notably on tax justice, normative dimensions of monetary policy, and on income inequalities. Dietsch is the author of Catching Capital – The Ethics of Tax Competition (Oxford University Press, 2015), co-author of Do Central Banks Serve the People? (Polity Press, 2018), and co-editor of Global Tax Governance – What is Wrong with It and How to Fix It (ECPR Press, 2016). He has published numerous articles and book chapters, and is a regular contributor in the media on debates in his field. Dietsch received the Friedrich Wilhelm Bessel Research Award from the Humboldt Foundation in 2021 and was nominated to the College of New Scholars, Artists and Scientists of the Royal Society of Canada in 2017. Prior to the University of Victoria, Dietsch taught at the Université de Montréal for 16 years. He has been a visiting fellow at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, at the European University Institute in Florence, and at the University of Victoria.

About the Discussant:

Picture of Kathryn HolstonKathryn Holston is an economist in the Office of the World Bank Chief Economist and a PhD candidate in economics at Harvard (on leave for the 2021-22 academic year). Since 2019, she has been a Stone PhD Scholar in Inequality and Wealth Concentration at Harvard. Her current work focuses on financial fragility during the COVID-19 crisis and banking crises throughout history. She is also interested in monetary policy, central bank independence and governance, and policymaking under low interest rates. Kathryn’s past work includes estimating the natural rate of interest for advanced economies with Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, for which they received the Bhagwati Award for best paper in the Journal of International Economics. Previously, Kathryn has worked in the Monetary Studies Section of the Federal Reserve Board and as a Guaranteed Income Fellow at the Jain Family Institute. She is a graduate of the University of Pittsburgh, where she studied economics and math.

About the Moderators:

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF- Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, Dr. Sharma was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. His current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is the Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy and recently served as a member of the Biden transition team. His work includes analysis of the interaction of exchange rate regimes with monetary policy, capital flows, and trade flows as well as studies of international reserves holdings, country balance sheet exchange rate exposure, the cross-country impact of fiscal policy, the crisis in the euro area, and regional growth disparities. He has also served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Shambaugh received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of wellbeing – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

IIEP Facing Inequality Series

The Facing Inequality series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe, especially those revealed by the current COVID-19 pandemic. It brings together historians, economists, sociologists, political scientists, and epidemiologists, within the academy and without, to present work and discuss ideas that can facilitate new interdisciplinary approaches to the problem of inequality. It is a platform for dialogue and debate. This series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster; Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics; and IIEP Faculty Affiliate Trevor Jackson, Assistant Professor of History. It is co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series and co-organized by Professor Trevor Jackson from the Department of History and Professor Bryan Stuart from the Department of Economics.

Getting India to the Green Frontier

Wednesday, September 29, 2021
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. EDT / 6:30 – 8:00 p.m. IST

This was the eleventh webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, a platform for dialogue and debate co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

The talk focused on the Getting to the Green Frontier Development Model for India that has been proposed by Mr. Sinha and laid out a Net-Zero Pathway for India in the 21st century. He also discussed climate finance options and India’s expectations from the COP 26 conference in Glasgow in November this year.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Jayant SinhaJayant Sinha, Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Finance, Parliament of India and BJP Lok Sabha Member of Parliament from Hazaribagh, Jharkhand. Mr. Sinha is a second term Member of Parliament from Jharkhand, India. Mr. Sinha won his Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019 with record margins. As Chairperson of the Standing Committee on Finance, Mr. Sinha leads the 31 member Parliamentary panel that has oversight of the Ministries of Finance, Corporate Affairs, Statistics & Program Implementation, and the Niti Aayog (the government planning agency). In addition, the panel has Parliamentary responsibility for the Reserve Bank of India, the Securities & Exchange Board of India, the Insolvency & Bankruptcy Board, and the Insurance and Pension regulatory authorities. Mr. Sinha is very active in Parliament having opened the debate on India’s Annual Budget on multiple occasions as well as by introducing important Private Member Bills. In the 2021 Budget session, he introduced the Climate Change (Net Zero Carbon) Private Member Bill 2021.

Previously, Mr. Sinha served on India’s Council of Ministers from 2014 to 2019; first, as the Minister of State for Finance and then as the Minister of State for Civil Aviation. During his time as a Minister, Mr. Sinha gained wide recognition as an innovative and results-oriented policymaker with singular successes ranging from piloting the legislation that brought in India’s game-changing bankruptcy code to establishing India’s sovereign wealth fund (the National Infrastructure Investment Fund) to privatizing multiple airports under an entirely new regulatory framework. As Aviation Minister, Mr. Sinha was instrumental in upgrading safety and security across India’s fast-growing aviation system. He launched the UDAN Regional Connectivity Scheme which expanded the number of operational airports in India by 50% in just three years. Mr. Sinha also implemented several major digital initiatives such as the DigitalSky Drone policy and the DigiYatra digital traveler program.

Prior to his career in public service, Mr. Sinha was Partner at Omidyar Network (ON) and the Managing Director of Omidyar Network India Advisors, where he led overall investment strategy and operations in India from 2009 to 2013. At Omidyar, Mr. Sinha made venture capital investments in a variety of companies including two unicorns: Quikr and DailyHunt. Before joining Omidyar Network, Mr. Sinha was Managing Director at Courage Capital Management, where he led Global Technology and India-related investing for a billion dollar global special situations hedge fund. Mr. Sinha joined Courage Capital in 2006 after twelve years with McKinsey & Company, where he was a Partner in the Boston and Delhi offices, and co-led the Global Software & Services Practice.

As a global thought leader, Mr. Sinha has been published in the Financial Times, Times of India, Economic Times, Indian Express, Business Standard, Harvard Business Review, and the McKinsey Quarterly. He has pioneered new thinking on platform-based businesses, innovation-driven entrepreneurship, Climate Change, and sustainable development. Mr. Sinha’s Getting to the Green Frontier development model is gaining broad acceptance as the Net Zero pathway for India in the 21st century.

Mr. Sinha has an MBA with Distinction from the Harvard Business School, an MS in Energy Management & Policy from the University of Pennsylvania, and a BTech with Distinction from the IIT Delhi. He was awarded the Distinguished Alumni award from IIT Delhi in 2015.

About the Discussants:

Picture of Mohua MukherjeeMohua Mukherjee served for over 25 years in many roles at the World Bank in Washington DC, primarily on investment projects. Her experience with World Bank lending spans 9 different sectors in 44 countries. Her most recent responsibility at the World Bank was heading the innovative US$1 billion Solar Program for Govt of India, which covered rooftop solar, large-scale solar parks and dedicated transmission lines to transport solar energy from one part of the country to the rest. She is also an Advisor with the India Smart Grid Forum. Previously, she worked pro bono for two years to support the establishment of the International Solar Alliance and served as their Program Ambassador. Mohua retired early from the World Bank in 2017 due to family reasons, and today she works as a Consultant for various international organizations, including the World Bank.

She also worked as an investment banker during a four year sabbatical in Nairobi, Kenya, where she successively headed the Corporate Finance Departments of Citibank and ABN AMRO Bank. Mohua has a Bachelors and Masters degree in Economics and an MBA, all from Boston University on an academic scholarship, and she has a Certificate in Public Private Partnerships from Harvard University.

Picture of Nitin DesaiNitin Desai has had a long and distinguished career in the Government of India and the United Nations. He has also worked for some time in private industry and taught at two UK Universities.

In the Government of India Mr. Desai worked at senior levels in the Planning Commission from 1973 to 1987. From 1988 to 1990 Mr. Desai was the Chief Economic Adviser and Secretary in the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance.

Mr. Desai joined the United Nations in 1990 as Deputy Secretary General of the Rio Earth Summit and was Under Secretary General from 1993 to 2003 dealing with economic and social affairs. Mr. Desai’s international involvement has been most prominent in the development and promotion of sustainable development as the goal of policy, first as Senior Adviser and key draftsman for “Our Common Future”, the Report of the Brundtland Commission on Environment and Development and then as Deputy Secretary-General for the Rio Earth Summit, the manager of the Commission on Sustainable Development for its first decade and as the Secretary General for the Johannesburg Summit. He was also responsible for the organisation of the Copenhagen Summit on Social Development, the Monterrey Summit on Finance for Development and many other global events.

After his retirement from the UN Mr. Desai continued to remain a Special Adviser to the UN Secretary General for Internet governance and chaired the Advisory Group that organizes the annual UN Internet Governance Forum till December 2010.

He chaired a Committee on Venture Capital and Technology Innovation set up by the Planning Commission in 2005-06 and the Advisory Panel on Transparency Standards set up by the Reserve Bank of India in 2007-08. He is also the Indian co-chair with Lord Chris Patten of the Indo-UK Roundtable set up by the two governments. He is a member of the Council on Climate Change chaired by the Prime Minister and was a member of the National Security Advisory Board 2008-10. He is also a member of the News Broadcasting Standards Authority.

He is an Honorary Fellow of the London School of Economics and Political Science, UK. In India he is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and Honorary Professor at the Indian Council for Research in International Economic Relations (ICRIER). He is connected with the governing bodies of several NGOs and research institutions including the Institute of Economic Growth whose Governing Body he chairs. He is a trustee of Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) International. He writes a monthly column for the Business Standard, an Indian daily.

Promoting Justice Across Borders: The Ethics of Reform Intervention

Thursday, September 23, 2021
4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. EDT
In-person and virtual

The Institute for International Economic Policy and the GW Elliott School of International Affairs Book Launch Series were pleased to invite you to a book launch discussion of Assistant Professor Lucia Rafanelli‘s Promoting Justice Across Borders: The Ethics of Reform Intervention. Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres moderated the event.

Global political actors, from states and NGOs to activist groups and individuals, exert influence in societies beyond their own in myriad ways-including via public criticism, consumer boycotts, divestment campaigns, sanctions, and forceful intervention. Often, they do so in the name of justice-promotion. While attempts to promote justice in other societies can do good, they are also often subject to moral criticism and raise several serious moral questions. For example, are there ways to promote one’s own ideas about justice in another society while still treating its members tolerantly? Are there ways to do so without disrespecting their legitimate political institutions or undermining their collective self-determination? Promoting Justice Across Borders: The Ethics of Reform Intervention aims to tackle these questions.

The book launch began with a lecture by the author followed by a moderated Q&A with the audience. Questions were accepted from both in-person and online audiences.  All in-person guests were required to stay masked per GW campus policy. We reserved the right to refuse entry to guests without masks. Detailed guidelines for virtual and in-person attendance were included in the registration confirmation.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Lucia RafanelliLucia Rafanelli is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the Elliott School. Her work focuses on contemporary political theory, global justice, and theories of human rights. Her other research interests include collective agency and collective personhood, philosophy of law, as well as ethics and artificial intelligence. She is a former affiliate of the Princeton Dialogues on AI and Ethics program and a current affiliate of the Institute for International Economic Policy and the Humanitarian Action Initiative at GW. She holds a Ph.D. in Politics, with a specialization in political theory, from Princeton University

About the Moderator:

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres is Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Dean Ayres is a foreign policy practitioner and award-winning author with senior experience in the government, nonprofit, and private sectors. She was Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where she remains an adjunct senior fellow. From 2010 to 2013 Ayres served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia in the Barack Obama administration, where she covered all issues across a dynamic region of 1.3 billion people at the time (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and provided policy direction for four U.S. embassies and four consulates. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Her last book is, Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World (OUP, 2018). She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago.

Poverty, Climate, and Unemployment: Towards a World of Three Zeros

Thursday, September 16, 2021
10:00 a.m. – 11:00 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to a conversation with Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, the founder of the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh who created a model for combating poverty through microlending. He is the author of three books, including Banker to the Poor. The event was moderated by Prof. James Foster, Oliver T. Carr Jr Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Vice Dean at the Elliott School of International Affairs. Prof. Foster is known for developing the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) along with Dr. Sabina Alkire. Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres provided welcome remarks.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Muhammad YunusNobel Laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus is the founder of Grameen Bank, pioneering the concepts of microcredit and social business, founding more than 50 Social Business companies in Bangladesh. For his constant innovation and enterprise, the Fortune Magazine named Professor Yunus in March 2012 as “one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.” At the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 Professor Yunus was conferred with the Olympic Laurel award for his extensive work in sports for development, bringing the concept of social business to the sports world.

In 2006, Professor Yunus and Grameen Bank were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Professor Muhammad Yunus is the recipient of 63 honorary degrees from universities across 26 countries. He has received 143 awards from 33 countries including state honours from 10 countries. He is one of only seven individuals to have received the Nobel Peace Prize, the United States Presidential Medal of Freedom and the United States Congressional Gold Medal. He has appeared on the cover of Time Magazine, Newsweek and Forbes Magazine.

Professor Yunus has been stressing the need for a basic decision of ‘No Going Back’ to the old ways of thinking and doing. He proposes to create new roads to go to a new destination by creating a World of 3 Zeros – zero net carbon emission, zero wealth concentration for ending poverty once and for all, and zero unemployment by unleashing entrepreneurship in everyone.

His recent focuses are:

a. Professor Yunus has been campaigning for making the Covid 19 Vaccine as a Global Common Good since June, 2020, urging the World Trade Organization to place a temporary waiver on Intellectual Property rights on vaccines to free up the global capacity to produce vaccines at all locations around the world.

b. Professor Yunus has launched a programme of creating a network of 3ZERO Clubs, each club to be formed by five young people. The programme aims to engage the global youth in initiating actions for creating solutions for global problems.

About the Moderator:

Picture of James FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Vice Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His joint 1984 Econometrica paper (with Joel Greer and Erik Thorbecke) is one of the most cited papers on poverty. It introduced the FGT Index, which has been used in thousands of studies and was employed in targeting the Progresa CCT program in Mexico. Other research includes work on economic inequality with Amartya Sen; on the distribution of human development with Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva and Miguel Szekely; on multidimensional poverty with Sabina Alkire; and on literacy with Kaushik Basu.

Professor Foster’s work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank.

Alyssa Aryes will provide welcome remarks.

Picture of Alyssa AryesAlyssa Ayres is Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Dean Ayres is a foreign policy practitioner and award-winning author with senior experience in the government, nonprofit, and private sectors. She was Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where she remains an adjunct senior fellow. From 2010 to 2013 Ayres served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia in the Barack Obama administration, where she covered all issues across a dynamic region of 1.3 billion people at the time (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and provided policy direction for four U.S. embassies and four consulates. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Her last book is, Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World (OUP, 2018). She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago.

Social Protection and Multidimensional Poverty

Monday, November 8th, 2021
11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

This was the fourth event in the continuation of our seminar series on Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, jointly hosted by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford, the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University. Liyousew Borga (Postdoctoral Research Associate, Universite du Luxembourg) presented a paper and Catherine Porter (Director, Young Lives, Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford) discussed.

Abstract: We investigate the impact of three large-scale social-protection schemes in Ethiopia, India, and Peru on multidimensional poverty. Using data from the Young Lives cohort study, we show the trend, changes and evolution of multidimensional poverty for individuals in program participant households. We follow a number of strategies to produce estimates that deal with non-random program placement. Our findings show that both the incidence and intensity of multidimensional poverty declined in all three countries over the period 2006–2016, more so for program participants than non-participants. We find positive short-term impact on asset formation, livestock holding, and some living standard indicators. In all three countries these positive impacts are sustained even in the medium and longer-term.

About the Presenter:

Picture of Liyousew BorgaLiyousew Borga is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the University of Luxembourg. Before that, he was a Junior Researcher at CERGE-EI (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education – Economics Institute) in Prague, Czech Republic, where he did his PhD. His research interest lies in applied econometrics, mainly labor and development economics. He is particularly interested in the early origins and evolution of health and human capital; the role of intrahousehold resource allocation, and the measurement of poverty and vulnerability. The aim is to understand the mechanisms through which effective policy interventions and optimal choices of investment can help mitigate inequalities and promote health and human capital development.

About the Discussant:

Picture of Catherine PorterCatherine Porter is the Director of Young Lives and a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economics, Lancaster University, UK. Her research interests are in applied microeconomics, often using panel or longitudinal datasets. Her focus is on the impact of unexpected events (shocks) on various outcomes such as nutrition, education and parental investments, how inequality develops through childhood into adolescence and early adulthood, and the effectiveness of policy in remediating such inequalities.

The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job

Wednesday, September 15, 2021
2:30 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.
via Zoom

Joint Macro-International / Trade & Development Workshop

David Deming (Harvard University and NBER) presented his paper, “The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job.”

Abstract: Machines increasingly replace people in routine job tasks. The remaining tasks require workers to make open-ended decisions and to have “soft” skills such as problem-solving, critical thinking and adaptability. This paper documents growing demand for decision-making and explores the consequences for life-cycle earnings. Career earnings growth in the U.S. more than doubled between 1960 and 2017, and the age of peak earnings increased from the late 30s to the mid-50s. I show that a substantial share of this shift is explained by increased employment in decision-intensive occupations, which have longer and more gradual periods of earnings growth. To understand these patterns, I develop a model that nests decision-making in a standard human capital framework. Workers predict the output of uncertain, context-dependent actions. Experience reduces prediction error, improving a worker’s ability to adapt using data from similar decisions they have made in the past. Experience takes longer to accumulate in high variance, non-routine jobs. I test the predictions of the model using data from the three waves of the NLS. Life-cycle wage growth in decision-intensive occupations has increased over time, and it has increased relatively more for highly-skilled workers.

How is the Roll Out of Digital RMB Changing the Financial System in China and Abroad?

Friday, November 19th, 2021
9:30 – 11:00 a.m. ET
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the third event in the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference took place as a virtual series. The conference was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

This event featured Fudan University’s Jun Qian discussing “How is the Roll Out of Digital RMB Changing the Financial System in China and Abroad?” Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute for International Economics provided discussant remarks. IIEP’s Maggie Chen provided welcoming remarks.

The rapid development of mobile electronic devices and softwares is leading our life towards a “cashless society,” and is redefining cross-border payment systems by making small value and high frequency transactions much more accessible than before. Digital currencies began with only non-sovereign cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and stable coins USDT, issued by anonymous and private institutions, but has evolved to a “dual-tier system” after Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) emerged. Currently, all major central banks around the globe are either in the process of launching, or proactively researching on their own CBDC. China is leading the way with its  CBDC roll-out (digital RMB, or e-CNY), issued by the People’s Bank of China (PBC)). The digital RMB has been issued and used in an increasing number of large cities and multiple consumption scenes.

About the Speaker

Picture of Jun QianProfessor Jun Qian is currently a Professor of Finance and Executive Dean at Fanhai International School of Finance (FISF), Fudan University.

Prior to joining FISF, he was Professor of Finance at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Director of the DBA/EMBA/EE programs; he was also the Deputy Director of China Academy of Financial Research. Before returning to China in 2013, he was a tenured finance professor at the Carroll School of Management, Boston College.

Professor Qian’s research interests span many topics of corporate finance, financial institutions and capital markets. His research papers have been published in top academic journals including the American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies and Journal of International Economics. One of his best known papers, published in the Journal of Financial Economics in 2005, is elected an “All-Star” paper based on its large number of citations. He also contributed book chapters on developing financial systems, including China’s Great Economic Transformation, Emerging Giants: China and India in the World Economy, China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, and Global Perspectives of Rule of Law.

Professor Qian is an Associate Editor of Frontiers of Economics in China and was on the editorial board of Review of Finance. He is a Research Fellow at the Financial Institutions Center of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He has also been on the organizing committee of the China International Conference in Finance, the best academic finance conference in Asia, since its inception, and served as conference Co-Chair during 2008-2010. In addition, he was one of the academic advisors for The Chinese Finance Association, the largest organization for Chinese finance practitioners in the U.S. He also served as a visiting or special-term professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, the Wharton School, School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and Shanghai National Accounting Institute.

Professor Qian received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania in 2000, and his B.S. degree in economics from University of Iowa. He also enrolled at Department of International Economics, Fudan University as an undergraduate.

About the Discussant

Picture of Martin ChorzempaMartin Chorzempa, senior fellow since January 2021, joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics as a research fellow in 2017. He gained expertise in financial innovation while in Germany as a Fulbright Scholar and researcher at the Association of German Banks. He conducted research on financial liberalization in Beijing, first as a Luce Scholar at Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research and then at the China Finance 40 Forum, China’s leading independent think tank. In 2017, he graduated from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government with a masters in public administration in international development. He is working on a forthcoming book on fintech in China. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times, MIT Technology Review, and Foreign Affairs.

Welcoming Remarks

Picture of Maggie ChenMaggie Chen is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. She has served as Director of GW’s Institute for International Economic Policy and worked as an economist in the research department of the World Bank and a consultant for the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Professor Chen’s research areas include multinational firms, international trade, and regional trade agreements. Her work has been published in academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. She is a co-editor of Economic Inquiry and an associate editor of Economic Modeling.

Food Systems at a Crossroads: How to fix them and help people, economies, and the planet

Thursday, June 24, 2021
12 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

The empty grocery shelves and miles-long food bank queues we have seen during the COVID-19 pandemic have underscored the fragility of the highly centralized, “just-in-time” global food supply chain on which we all depend. But the food system’s weaknesses extend far beyond vulnerability to shocks. Food produced through the overuse of chemicals, in monoculture cropping systems, and intensive animal farming on land and at sea degrades natural resources faster than they can regenerate and causes over a third of all man-made greenhouse gas emissions. Crucially, this flawed system fails to feed the world, with billions of people chronically under- or over-nourished.

Nicoletta Batini and Bruce Friedrich in conversation with moderator Ann Florini explored the economic and financial policies needed to make food systems healthy for people and planet, alongside measures to boost ecosystem conservation to preserve the future of food security, providing several examples of successful country cases. The role of disruptive technologies and markets, like the booming sector of alternative proteins, will receive special attention.

Opening Remarks:

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, Dr. Sharma was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, and his current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Nicoletta BatiniNicoletta Batini is the Lead Evaluator of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Independent Evaluation Office. Prior to the IMF, she was Advisor of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, Professor of Economics at the University of Surrey, and Director of the International Economics and Policy Office of the Treasury in Italy. She holds a Ph.D. in international finance (S.S.S.U.P. S. Anna) and a Ph.D. in monetary economics (University of Oxford). Today her research focuses on the economics of energy and land and sea use transitions for climate mitigation. Her new book “The Economics of Sustainable Food: Smart Policies for People and the Planet” was just published by Island Press and the International Monetary Fund.

About the Discussant:

Picture of Bruce FriedrichBruce Friedrich is co-founder and executive director of the Good Food Institute. With branches in the United States, India, Israel, Brazil, Europe, and Asia Pacific, GFI is accelerating the production of plant-based and cultivated meat in order to bolster the global protein supply while protecting our environment, promoting global health, and preventing food insecurity. Bruce oversees GFI’s global strategy, working with directors and international managing directors to ensure that GFI is maximally effective at delivering mission-focused results. Bruce graduated from Georgetown Law and also holds degrees from Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Economics. Bruce was named 2021 “American Food Hero” by @EatingWell Magazine.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Ann FloriniAnn Florini is Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, DC campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University; founding Director of the Centre on Asia and Globalization at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations involving government, civil society and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

 

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of wellbeing – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

 

Thunderbird Finance and Sustainability Series

The global financial system is facing new pressures to become “sustainable” – not only financially stable, but simultaneously environmentally friendly and socially inclusive. These pressures have emerged in reaction to the increasing financialization of the global economy and the sector’s failure to steer investment to meet the full needs of society. Top public authorities are rethinking financial regulation, coming together, for example, in the new Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. The private sector has already moved rapidly from CSR to considering broad ESG (environmental, social, governance) risks and opportunities in investments. Some investors are exploring natural and social capital returns, along with financial metrics. New financial technologies (“fintech”) impose yet more pressures on incumbent institutions, but also offer opportunities for the creation of “citizen-centric” finance. Thunderbird’s Finance and Sustainability webinar series explores these developments with leading practitioners and thinkers.

Campaign Finance Rules and Wealth of Politicians

Monday, June 21, 2021
9 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to a new webinar series, “Facing Inequality”, hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy. This virtual series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe. The series brings attention to aspects of inequality being made increasingly relevant by the current COVID-19 pandemic and associated crises. The series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Faculty Affiliate Trevor Jackson, Assistant Professor of History. The series is co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series, co-organized by Prof. Jackson from the Department of History and Prof. Bryan Stuart from the Department of Economics. The inaugural event in the series featured Branko Milanovic.

The goal of the series is to bring together historians, economists, sociologists, political scientists, and epidemiologists, both within the academy and without, to present their work and to discuss both their ideas and methods, with the intention of working towards new interdisciplinary approaches to the problem of inequality. This is a platform for dialogue and debate, and will help cultivate a community of current and future researchers and practitioners. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

In many countries, the political elites appear to be dominated by wealthy individuals. One commonly cited reason is the nature of the campaign finance system. Weak limits on campaign spending and rules protecting the role of outside funding may be especially advantageous for well-off candidates, given their greater ability to self-finance and stronger connections to deep-pocketed donors. While intuitive, this conjecture has scarcely been studied systematically across countries due to the lack of comprehensive data on politicians’ wealth. At the same time, insights on the topic from the U.S. are difficult to generalize from its highly idiosyncratic campaign finance regime. Drawing on newly-collected data from asset disclosures in a number of countries around the world, the paper examines cross-nationally the extent to which the variation in elected officials’ wealth is correlated with differences in limits on campaign spending. The paper further explores potential mechanisms by which campaign spending caps affect the composition of political elites by exploiting the recent campaign finance reforms enacted in Brazil and Chile.

Meet the Speakers: 

Marko Klašnja is an assistant professor at Georgetown University, with a joint appointment in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Government Department. He holds a PhD in political science (NYU, 2015). In 2014-2015, Marko was a visiting scholar at the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics, Princeton. His research focuses on democratic accountability and the inequalities in political representation, with a special focus on the electoral fortunes of corrupt politicians, the role of parties in democratic accountability, the causes and consequences of politicians’ wealth, and the political attitudes and preferences of wealthy individuals. At Georgetown, Marko teaches courses on comparative political economy and quantitative research methods.

Nina Eichacker is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Rhode Island. She earned her PhD at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Her work synthesizes Post Keynesian economic theory with International Political Economy to better understand the effects of globalization, financial liberalization, and public intervention in neoliberalism and beyond. Her teaching interests lie in critical macrofinance, money and banking, and the economics of globalization.

 

 

Tim Shenk is an assistant professor in the department of history at GW and co-editor of Dissent. He is currently working on two books. The first, based on his dissertation and under contract with Princeton University Press, examines the emergence of the idea of “the economy” in the United States during the twentieth century. The second explores the intellectual history of the American political elite from the writing of the Constitution down to the present. Tentatively titled The Golden LineThe People, The Powerful, and the American Political Tradition, it is under contract with Farrar, Straus, & Giroux.

The Spatial Economic Effects of Conflict

Wednesday, June 9, 2021
9 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EDT
via Webex

This workshop showcased the most recent advances in the field of economics on conflict with a particular focus on the local and spillover effects of conflict, conflict and spatial poverty traps, and policies to mitigate potential negative effects of conflict such as infrastructure investment. While the policy focus of this workshop was on Africa, the presentations included a larger geographical coverage. The workshop was divided into two sessions. First there was a round table discussion with two presentations by the main keynote speakers, followed by a Q&A session. Second, authors presented their research papers, followed by feedback by a discussant and a Q&A session.

This event was jointly organized by the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice, the Office of the Director for Regional Integration for Africa of the World Bank, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University.

Welcome Remarks

Deborah Wetzel, a U.S. national with more than 25 years of experience in development work around the world, is the World Bank Director for Regional Integration for Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa. Prior to her current appointment, Wetzel was the Senior Director for Governance from April 2016 to April 2019. She also served as the Director of Strategy and Operations for the Middle East and North Africa Region, as well as Country Director for Brazil, from March 2012 until July 2015. Previous roles include World Bank Group’s Chief of Staff to the World Bank President from 2010 to 2012, and Director for Governance and Public Sector, where she directed the Bank’s work on taxation, public expenditures, decentralization, public sector reform and strengthening, governance and anti-corruption. From 2006 to 2009, she led the World Bank’s Economic and Public Sector Programs in Brazil, based in Brasilia. During that period, she developed numerous programs with state and federal governments to help improve the effectiveness of public expenditures and achieve better results. Wetzel has a Doctorate in Economics from the University of Oxford and a Masters in International Studies from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies. Her BA is from Smith College. She is the author of publications on fiscal decentralization, public finance, governance, and sub-national affairs.

 

Roundtable

Moderator:

Carolina Sánchez-Páramo, a Spanish national, is currently the Global Director of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice (GP) at the World Bank. Prior to this assignment, she was the Poverty and Equity GP Practice Manager in the Europe and Central Asia region. Carolina has worked on operations, policy advice and analytical activities in Eastern Europe, Latin America and South Asia, and was part of the core team working on the WDR2012, “Gender Equality and Development”. Her main areas of interest and expertise include labor economics, poverty and distributional analysis, gender equality and welfare impacts of public policy. She has led reports on poverty and equity, labor markets and economic growth in several countries, as well as social sector operations. She has published articles in refereed journals and edited books on the topics described above. Carolina has a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.

Keynote Speakers:

Chris Blattman is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at The University of Chicago’s Pearson Institute and Harris Public Policy. He is an economist and political scientist who studies poverty, violence and crime in developing countries. He has designed and evaluated strategies for tackling poverty, including cash transfers to the poorest. Much of his work is with the victims and perpetrators of crime and violence, testing the link between poverty and violence. His recent work looks at other sources of and solutions to violence. These solutions range from behavioral therapy to social norm change and local-level state building. He has worked mainly in Colombia, Liberia, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Chicago’s South Side. Dr. Blattman was previously faculty at Columbia and Yale Universities, and holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley and a Master’s in Public Administration and International Development (MPA/ID) from the Harvard Kennedy School. He chairs the Peace & Recovery sector at Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) and the Crime, Violence and Conflict initiative at MIT’s Poverty Action Lab (JPAL).

Dominic Rohner (PhD, University of Cambridge) is a Professor and co-director of the economics department at HEC Lausanne, the Faculty of Business and Economics of the University of Lausanne. He is also Associate Editor at the Economic Journal, the PI of a European Research Council grant, the leader of the CEPR Research and Policy Network on “Policies for Peace”, a member of the Swiss National Research Council, and co-leader of the E4S group on “Evidence-based environmental policies”. Prior to joining UNIL, he held positions at the universities of York and Zurich. His research focuses on political and development economics, has won several prizes and has been widely published in journals such as American Economic Review, Econometrica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, and PNAS.

 

Academic Presentations

Speakers:

Nathan Nunn is Frederic E. Abbe Professor of Economics at Harvard University. Professor Nunn’s primary research interests are in political economy, economic history, economic development, cultural economics, and international trade. He is an NBER Faculty Research Fellow, a Research Fellow at BREAD, a Faculty Associate at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs (WCFIA), and a Fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) in the Boundaries, Membership & Belonging program. One stream of Professor Nunn’s research focuses on the historical and dynamic process of economic development. In particular, he has studied the factors that shape differences in the evolution of institutions and cultures across societies. He has published research that studies the historical process of a wide range of factors that are crucial for economic development, including distrust, gender norms, religiosity, norms of rule-following, conflict, immigration, state formation, and support for democracy. His current research interests lie in better understanding the importance of local culture and context  for economic policies, particularly in developing countries.

Rémi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Maria Micaela Sviatschi is currently an Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. She is also an affiliate at the CESifo Research Network, NBER development and political economy group, the African School of Economics and the International Crisis Group. Her research interests are labor and development economics, with a focus on human capital, gender-violence and crime.  One strand of her research explores how children start a criminal career in drug trafficking and gangs as well as the consequences of organized crime on economic development and state capacity. In particular, she has worked on the development of criminal skills in drug trafficking organizations in Peru and gangs in El Salvador. In addition, she studies how criminal organizations such as gangs and drug trafficking groups affect household’s behavior and state presence in the areas they control. Another strand of her research studies the role of state capacity to deter and improve service-delivery to reduce gender-based violence. In particular, studying the effects of women police officers in Peru and police street patrolling in India. In addition to this research, she has ongoing collaborative research projects in the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Colombia, Mozambique, Jordan, Bangladesh and the US.

Mathias Thoenig is a Professor of Economics at the School of Business and Economics (HEC) at the University of Lausanne, a CEPR Research Fellow in the international trade and macro programs and an elected Council Member of the European Economic Association. He is a Distinguished Scholar at IMD Business School and a Professorial Fellow at Queen Mary University of London. Mathias Thoenig received his Ph.D. from University Paris-1 Sorbonne and his B.A. in engineering from Ecole Polytechnique. He has held visiting appointments at International Monetary Fund, MIT, SciencesPo Paris, University of British Columbia and University Pompeu Fabra. He also served on the editorial boards of Journal of European Economic Association and International Economics. His research interests include development, international trade and political economy of conflicts and migration. He has published and forthcoming papers in several international journals, including, among others: American Economic Review, Econometrica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, Harvard Business Review, Journal of European Economic Association. He has been awarded an ERC Starting Grant in 2013 for his work on the role of distrust and grievances in ethnic conflicts.

Discussants:

Roland Hodler is Professor of Economics at the University of St.Gallen and Research Fellow at CEPR, CESifo and OxCarre. His research covers topics in development and political economics. His interests include how ethnic diversity, natural resources and foreign aid influence economic and human development as well as conflict, corruption and favoritism. His research has been published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, the Journal of Development Economics, the Journal of Public Economics, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences; and covered by the BBC, the Economist, the Guardian, Le Monde, NZZ, and the Washington Post. He is also a member of the Bayelsa State Oil & Environmental Commission.

Mathieu Couttenier has obtained his PhD in Economics in 2011 at the University Paris 1 Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics. Before to join the Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon as Professor, he was post-doc at the University of Lausanne and assistant professor at the University of Geneva. He was also visiting researcher at the department of political sciences at Stanford and at the economic department at Sciences Po Paris. His research is filled with interactions between economics and political sciences but also cultural, institutional and geographical issues. He focuses on microeconomic questions, in particular in the fields of applied political economy and economic development. His main research interests are in the understanding of violence and civil wars. He has published many academic papers on the role played by income shocks, natural resources or climate on the diffusion of conflicts over space and time. Some of his present research agenda also studies the role of natural resources in the local economic development. He has published in many leading peer-refereed journals, such as the American Economic Review, the Journal of the European Economic Association, the Economic Journal, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Journal of Development Economics and the Journal of Comparative Economics.

Elena Esposito is Assistant Professor at HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne. She is an applied economist with research interests in the fields of development economics, economic growth, political economy, and economic history. Elena Esposito earned a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Bologna in 2014 and she joined the department of Economics at the European University Institute (Italy) as “Max Weber Fellow”. She spent research periods at the departments of economics at universities in the USA. She also worked as an economic researcher and consultant for several international organizations, participating to projects with UNICEF, the European Commission and the World Bank, among others.

Eoin McGuirk is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Neubauer Faculty Fellow at Tufts University. His research interests are in development and political economics, with a particular focus on the causes and consequences of political violence and social divisions. In his research, he has examined how variation in world food prices can affect the type and location of conflict events in Africa, and how politicians are more likely to perpetuate conflict when they are sheltered from its costs. Most of his research employs natural experiments in order to identify causal relationships. He has Ph.D. in Economics from Trinity College, University of Dublin, and was a Fulbright Scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.

India’s Trade Policy: Past, Present, Future

Wednesday, June 2nd, 2021
9:00am – 10:30 am EDT
via Zoom

This was the ninth webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The ninth event featured Harsha Vardhana Singh, Chairman, IKDHVAJ Advisers LLP and Former Deputy Director-General at WTO, discussing “India’s Trade Policy: Past, Present, Future.” Dean Alyssa Ayres (GWU), Judith Dean (Brandeis), and Rajeev Kher provided discussant remarks. IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh moderated.

India liberalised its trade regime in 1991 as part of a larger reform initiative. India’s trade surged and the economy grew to become the world’s 5th largest in 2019. Since 2018, India’s trade regime has become more protectionist with an aim to stem the trade deficit and promote domestic industry. India’s concern with a high trade deficit, in particular with China and ASEAN, has also impacted its approach to trade agreements. More recently, India opted out of RCEP. In 2020, India announced a new program of self-reliance (Atmanirbharta). Some fear that this is a signal of turning further inward. Yet India’s stated goals are to attract more FDI – especially as an alternative to China, enter global value chains, and encourage exports. How should we assess India’s recent policy changes and reconcile these shifts? What are the likely pathways for India’s future trade stance? Will India seek to substantively enhance growing US-India trade ties? Will its renewed interest in trade agreements with others such as the EU move forward giving some substantive results? Is it permanently out of RCEP? What steps by other nations could facilitate India’s increased trade engagements with major economies? What choices India makes will affect India and the world. Our distinguished speakers addressed these and related issues in this 9th talk on Envisioning India.

About the speakers:

Picture of Harsha SinghHarsha Vardhana Singh is Chairman, IKDHVAJ Advisers LLP, a consulting firm working on trade policy, industrial policy and regulatory issues. He has been a member of High-Level Expert Groups within India and abroad that inter alia address policy concerns related to trade policy, industrial policy, competition and regulatory policy. Earlier, he has worked at the GATT/WTO for 20 years (eight years as Deputy Director General, WTO), was Secretary Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Executive Director of Brookings India, Senior Fellow at Think Tanks in Switzerland and Canada, taught at Universities in the US and China, and been Chair/secretary of GATT/WTO Dispute Settlement Panels. He has a Ph.D. in Economics from University of Oxford, where he went as a Rhodes Scholar from India in 1979.

As WTO Deputy Director General, he had direct responsibility for Trade in Services, Trade in Agriculture, Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, Trade and Environment, Technical Barriers to Trade, Chairman of the Groups on E-Commerce Program and the Cotton Development Agenda. As Economic Advisor and Secretary of Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, he was part of the small group of officials that conceptualized and implemented a number of telecom sector policy reforms, resulting in large growth in the sector.

His recent engagements include: Senior Fellow, Council on Emerging Market Enterprises, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, USA (ongoing); Member of the Advisory Board of UNCTAD’s “Transnational Corporations Journal” (ongoing); Member of the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) International Trade Policy Council (ongoing); Non-Resident Senior Fellow, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council (ongoing); Senior Research Affiliate, Berkeley APEC Study Center, US (ongoing); Member, High Level Advisory Group on International Trade, established by Government of India; Member, Competition Law Review Committee to revise the Competition Act, established by Government of India;  Member, Expert Enquiry Committee Set Up by UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Trade Out of Poverty on “Can the Commonwealth help countries trade out of poverty?”; Member, High Level Board of Experts on the Future of Trade Governance, set up by Bertelsmann Stiftung; Senior Adviser to the Global Commission on Internet Governance on the topic, “Governance of International Trade and the Internet: Existing and Evolving Regulatory Systems”; Senior Advisor, Asia Society Policy Institute, on the topic “India and APEC: Charting a Path to Membership.”

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres was appointed Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University effective February 1, 2021. Ayres is a foreign policy practitioner and award-winning author with senior experience in the government, nonprofit, and private sectors. From 2013 to 2021, she was senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where she remains an adjunct senior fellow. From 2010 to 2013 Ayres served as deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia. During her tenure at the State Department in the Barack Obama administration, she covered all issues across a dynamic region of 1.3 billion people at the time (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and provided policy direction for four U.S. embassies and four consulates.

Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Her book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018 and was selected by the Financial Times for its “Summer 2018: Politics” list. An updated paperback edition was released in 2019. She served as the project director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on U.S.-India relations, and, from 2014 to 2016, as the project director for an initiative on the new geopolitics of China, India, and Pakistan supported by the MacArthur Foundation.

Judith Dean is the Professor of International Economics in the Brandeis International Business School. Her research focuses on international trade and economic development. Much of her work examines the relationship between trade and the environment. In a series of empirical studies using Chinese data, she has been exploring the possibility that trade growth, foreign investment and production fragmentation may have beneficial effects on the environment. In other work, she studies global value chain trade, non-tariff barriers. and trade preferences for developing countries. Her new work on India explores the impact of trade liberalization on Indian poverty. Judy came to Brandeis from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) where she was a Senior International Economist in the Research Division of the Office of Economics. Prior to joining the USITC, Judy was Associate Professor of Economics at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, and Assistant Professor at Bowdoin College. She has been a consultant to the World Bank and the OECD, and a Visiting Scholar at the Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India. She has also helped facilitate research collaboration for the USITC with Tsinghua University and the India Development Foundation. Judy was named one of six Visiting Scholars in the Clayton Yeutter International Trade Program, University of Nebraska, 2012-13. In 2018, she gave the 4th Annual John Mason Lecture at Gordon College in 2018. Judy recently completed many years of service on the Board of Directors of World Relief, and the Board of Trustees of Gordon College.

Picture of Rajeev KherRajeev Kher superannuated as Commerce Secretary, Government of India in 2015 after a career of 35 years in the Indian Administrative Service. He then worked as a Member in the Competition Appellate Tribunal for two years. He has now associated himself with some leading think tanks. He also advises a Private Equity. His field of experience includes broad areas of International Trade and Commerce, Competition Law and Policy, Sustainable Development Policy, Environmental Management, Global Governance, particularly with reference to trade and environment and Decentralised Governance. He has held several important assignments in the Central Government and the State Government of UP. Some of the more prominent once include a tenure of 9 years in the Department of Trade and Commerce, a stint of 8 years in the Ministry of Environment and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in Delhi and senior level assignments in the Departments of Renewable Energy, Finance, Planning and Science and Technology, besides administering two very challenging charges of District Magistrates. He is credited with bringing in the first comprehensive Foreign Trade Policy for India. His vision on international trade issues has been well respected by the stakeholder community within India and abroad. He led negotiations on behalf of his country for Trade Agreements with major blocks such as EU, EFTA, RCEP and ASEAN. His initiatives to bring discourse on India’s competitiveness in Trade in Services, evolution of Policy on Technical Regulations and Standards and India’s position on the Global and Regional value chains in the forefront of Policy making are much recognised by the stakeholder community. He is also credited with hand holding the Pharmaceutical sector in its pursuit to become global leader in Generic Medicine and his work is highly appreciated by the industry. He has published work on India’s Patent Policy, Trade Policy, WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism, Product standards and Technical Regulations and several other related areas.

About the Moderator:

Picture of James E. Foster

James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

This event and seminar series was jointly organized with the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the UNDP Human Development Report Office.

 

Policy Choices and Contagion: The Covid Pandemic and the Climate Crisis

Wednesday, May 26, 2021
12 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

Behavioral contagion refers to how ideas and behaviors often spread in ways that resemble the spread of infectious disease. Exposure to others infected by a virus, for example, makes people more likely to become infected, just as people are more likely to drink excessively when they spend more time with heavy drinkers. But there are also important differences between the two types of contagion. One is the effect of visibility. Solar panels that are visible from the street, for instance, are more likely to stimulate neighboring installations. In contrast, we try to avoid others who are visibly ill. Another difference is that viral contagion is almost always a bad thing, but behavioral contagion can be either negative—as with smoking—or positive, as with solar installations. The seminar will discuss the policy choices we face when individually rational behavior is collectively irrational, as often happens under both types of contagion.

This webinar was moderated by IIEP Co-Director James Foster, with introductory remarks by IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Sunil Sharma and welcome remarks by Ann Florini of ASU-Thunderbird. This event was co-sponsored by the Thunderbird School of Management, Arizona State University, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU.

Meet the Presenter:

Robert H. Frank (@econnaturalist) is the HJ Louis Professor of Management and Professor of Economics, Emeritus, at Cornell’s Johnson School of Management.  His “Economic View” column has appeared in The New York Times since 2005. He received his B.S. in mathematics from Georgia Tech, then taught math and science for two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer in rural Nepal.  He holds an M.A. in statistics and a Ph.D. in economics, both from the University of California at Berkeley.

His books, which include Choosing the Right Pond, Passions Within Reason, Microeconomics and Behavior, Principles of Economics (with Ben Bernanke), Luxury Fever, What Price the Moral High Ground?, Falling Behind, The Economic Naturalist, The Darwin Economy, Success and Luck, and Under the Influence have been translated into 24 languages. The Winner-Take-All Society, co-authored with Philip Cook, received a Critic’s Choice Award, was named a Notable Book of the Year by The New York Times, and was included in Business Week‘s list of the ten best books of 1995. He received the 2004 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought, the Johnson School’s Stephen Russell Distinguished teaching award in 2004, 2010, 2012, and 2017, and its Apple Distinguished Teaching Award in 2005.

Meet the Discussant:

Roland KupersDr. Roland Kupers is an advisor on Complexity, Resilience and Energy Transition, a Professor of Practice at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, and a fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies at the University of Amsterdam.

A theoretical physicist by training, Roland spent a decade at AT&T and then a decade at Royal Dutch Shell in various senior executive functions, including Vice President for Sustainable Development and Vice President Global LNG, where he was integrally involved with strategy and scenario planning.

His numerous publications include most recently his pathbreaking book on A Climate Policy Revolution: What the Science of Complexity Reveals about Saving Our Planet (Harvard University Press, 2020). His previous works include such co-authored books as The Essence of Scenarios (Amsterdam University Press, 2014) and Complexity and the Art of Public Policy (Princeton University Press 2014), along with an edited volume: Turbulence: A Corporate Perspective on Collaborating for Resilience (Amsterdam University Press, 2014) and articles in Harvard Business Review and in Project Syndicate.

Meet the moderator:

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF- Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, Dr. Sharma was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. His current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Welcome Remarks by: 

Picture of Ann FloriniAnn Florini is Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, D.C. campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University founding director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations including government, civil society, and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

Picture of James FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

The COVID-19 pandemic, like the global financial crisis a decade ago, has laid bare the cracks in the leading capitalist democracies. Fissures in the political, social, economic, and financial orders, accompanied by an increasingly stressed natural environment, pose serious and possibly existential threats to these societies, as exploding income and wealth inequality subverts the integrity and fairness of markets and elections, weak regulatory oversight increases the likelihood and severity of the next crash, and the visible effects of climate change threaten lives and livelihoods and drive migrations. The three spheres of well-being – political and social, economic and financial, and the natural environment, are each becoming more fragile while their complex interrelationships are producing wicked challenges. The IIEP webinar series on Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy examines these difficult questions and possible policy responses.

Thunderbird Finance and Sustainability Series

The global financial system is facing new pressures to become “sustainable” – not only financially stable, but simultaneously environmentally friendly and socially inclusive. These pressures are partly political, in reaction to the increasing financialization of the global economy and the sector’s failure to steer investment to meet the needs of society. New financial technologies (“fintech”) pose yet more pressures on incumbent financial institutions but also offer great opportunities for the creation of what some are calling “citizen-centric” finance. Top public authorities are convening in the new Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. The private sector has already moved rapidly from CSR to considering broader forms of ESG (environmental, social, governance) risks and opportunities in investments. Thunderbird’s Finance and Sustainability webinar series explores these urgent questions with leading practitioners and thinkers.

The Use of Multidimensional Poverty and Vulnerability Indices in the Context of Health Emergencies

Monday, May 24, 2021
10 a.m. – 11:15 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

Health emergencies pose serious threats to human lives and livelihoods. They also risk exacerbating disadvantages by unequally affecting those who are already worse-off. Identifying how different population subgroups are unequally exposed, susceptible, or vulnerable to diseases, due to social, environmental, and economic implications of health emergencies is vital in developing equitable preparedness, response and recovery measures.

WHO and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) have been collaborating to explore how the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI) and national multidimensional poverty and vulnerability indices (MPIs or MVIs) could be used  in health emergencies, especially in the face of COVID-19 pandemic and its socio-economic consequences. This talk provides a brief overview of how MPIs and MVIs can be used in health emergencies to prevent or mitigate the impacts and to prevent exacerbation of pre-existing inequalities and deprivation. It presents four ways of using multidimensional measures in health emergency contexts, drawing examples from recent studies.

The use of multidimensional measures in the context of health emergencies is new, which invites further discussion, study and exploration by wider stakeholder groups.

 

This event and seminar series was jointly organized with the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the UNDP Human Development Report Office.

Meet the Presenter: 

Dr Niluka Wijekoon is a medical epidemiologist. She works in the Emergencies Programme at WHO headquarters in Geneva, in the Department of Health Information Management and Risk Assessment.

Dr Niluka is a technical expert in surveillance, early warning, alert and response in emergency settings. She has started her public health career with the United Nation’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) as the Emergency Health Coordinator in Sri Lanka, during the ethnic crisis. She has first joined WHO in 2011 as the Officer in Charge (OIC) of WHO’s emergency hub in Vavuniya, Sri Lanka. She has been with WHO headquarters since 2014 and has worked in emergencies and outbreaks around the world, including in Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Sierra Leon, Guinea, Nigeria, South Sudan, Mozambique, Rohingya crisis is Bangladesh, NE Syria, Yemen, DRC, and Indonesia.  Dr Niluka also manages WHO’s electronic tool for early warning, alert and response named EWARS-in-a-Box, an innovative solution for outbreak detection in emergency settings. 

Before embarking on a public health career, Dr Niluka worked as an emergency physician in both public and private healthcare sectors. She obtained her Master of Public Health from The University of Sheffield, UK and Master of Biostatistics and Epidemiology from French School of Public Health, Paris, France (École des hautes études en santé publique). 

Dr Niluka has been a human rights and gender champion from the onset of her career. She is the Gender, Equity and Human Rights (GER) focal person for her department at WHO and also an active member of the team which leads the research brief on using multidimensional poverty and vulnerability indices to inform equitable policies and interventions in preparedness for, response to and recovery from health emergencies.

Meet the Discussant: 

Juan Daniel Oviedo was appointed Chief Statistician of Colombia in August 2018. He has international professional experience in economic consulting for energy markets, and national experience in government and teaching. Previously, he was the Director of Institutional Planning and Research (2016-2018) and Director of the PhD School of Economics (2013-2016) at the Universidad del Rosario of Bogotá. In addition, he was the Founding Partner and Chief Director of LEICO Consultores (2011-2018), a leading consulting firm which performed as an expert opinion both for the private and public sector in regulated industries in Colombia and Latin America. He holds a permanent academic position at Universidad del Rosario of Bogotá (Colombia) since 2005. Juan has a PhD in economics from the University of Toulouse 1 (France) and BA in economics from the Universidad del Rosario of Bogotá (Colombia). 

 

 

Disaggregating the Global MPI by Ethnicity

Monday, May 17, 2021
10 a.m. – 11:15 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

Alkire and Kovesdi discussed how the painful topic of race relations, discrimination, and disparities across ethnic groups are in the public eye. Far earlier, Amartya Sen drew attention to the disparity in life expectancies between Costa Rica, Kerala India, and African-American men. Can we study ethnic inequalities quantitatively at a larger scale? This presentation disaggregates the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) by ethnicity for 24 countries and 650 million people, using the recognized ethnic groups for which data were representative. Striking disparities are visible – ranging from pockets of poverty among groups such as the Roma, to yawning gaps between the average poverty levels. This paper illustrates the methodology – and the importance – of disaggregating global poverty measures by ethnic groups.

Jiménez discussed how part of the historic and ambitious nature of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is its pledge to leave no one behind, including a specific goal to reduce inequality between and within countries. This move beyond national averages to look at the unequal distribution of resources, opportunities and voice within countries includes the target to empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status.

This presentation provided an overview of how the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) has operationalized the pledge to “leave no one behind,” with a specific focus on trends in inequality by race and ethnicity. It is based on the OPHI Briefing on global MPI ethnicity disaggregations.

Meet the Presenter:

Maren Jiménez is a Social Affairs Officer in the United Nation’s Department for Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). At DESA, Ms. Jiménez forms part of the writing team of the World Social Report (previously the Report on the World Social Situation), the United Nation’s flagship publication on social development issues. Prior to joining DESA, Ms. Jiménez held several positions at United Nations’ regional commissions in Addis Ababa, Bangkok and Santiago de Chile. Ms. Jiménez holds a M.A. in Sociology from The University of Texas at Austin. 

 

Picture of Sabina AlkireSabina Alkire directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), a research centre within the Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford. Dr Alkire works on a new approach to measuring poverty and well-being that goes beyond the traditional focus on income and growth. This multidimensional approach to measurement includes social goals, such as health, education, nutrition, standard of living and other valuable aspects of life. She devised a new method for measuring multidimensional poverty with her colleague James Foster (OPHI Research Associate and Professor of Economics at George Washington University) that has advantages over other poverty measures and has been adopted by the Mexican Government, the Bhutanese Government in their ‘Gross National Happiness Index’ and the United Nations Development Programme. Dr Alkire has been called upon to provide input and advice to several initiatives seeking to take a broader approach to well-being rather than just economic growth, for example, the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (instigated by President Sarkozy); the United Nations Human Development Programme Human Development Report Office; the European Commission; and the UK’s Department for International Development.

Fanni Kovesdi is a Research Analystat the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), where she is supporting research focused on the global MPI, moderate poverty and wellbeing, and technical work with national governments. Prior to joining OPHI, she has worked on research projects at the University of Oxford, the Centre for Social Sciences at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and the regional office of Terre des Hommes in Central and South East Europe. Previously, she worked on the “Changes over Time” project which harmonized global MPI data across 80 countries to analyze trends in poverty. She has also supported previous releases of the global MPI through data work and report writing along with leading the ethnicity disaggregation of the measure in 2019. Kovesdi holds a bachelor’s degree in Politics and Sociology from the University of Bristol, and a Master’s degree in Sociology from the University of Oxford. Her primary research interests are in multidimensional poverty measurement and analysis, wellbeing, and ethnicity and migration, particularly in the European context.

Meet the Discussant:

Rachel M. Gisselquist, a political scientist, is a Senior Research Fellow with the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) and a member of the institute’s senior management team. She works on the politics of developing countries, with particular attention to inequality, ethnic politics, statebuilding and governance and the role of aid therein, democracy and democratization, and sub-Saharan African politics. At UNU-WIDER, she currently leads the projects Addressing Group-based Inequalities and The State and Statebuilding in the Global South – International and Local Interactions, and co-leads the projects The Impact of Inequality on Growth, Human Development, and Governance @EQUAL, Clientelist Politics and Economic Development – Theories, Perspectives, and New Directions, and Effects of Swedish and International Democracy Support. She serves as Helsinki-based research focal point for the Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) programme, and is a core member of the UNU-WIDER team in the African Cities Research Consortium. Under the institute’s previous research programmes, she was a focal point for The Politics of Group-Based Inequalities: Measurement, Implications, and Possibilities for Change (2014–18), and the Governance and Fragility theme of the Research and Communication on Foreign Aid (ReCom) programme (2011–13). Her work is published in various journals and edited volumes, including World Development, Journal of Development Studies, Oxford Development Studies, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Ethnic and Racial Studies, Social Indicators Research, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Democratization, and International Peacekeeping. She is editor/co-editor of a dozen journal special issues and collections, and co-author of the first two editions of the Ibrahim Index of African Governance, which has become a standard reference on governance. Before moving to Helsinki, she spent three years at Harvard University as Research Director, Index of African Governance. She has also spent time at the London School of Economics and with the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Master’s degree in Public Policy from Harvard University.

Meet the Moderator: 

Picture of James FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

8th Annual Conference Washington Area Development Economics Symposium (WADES)

Thursday, May 13, 2021 – Friday, May 14, 2021 

The Washington Area Development Economics Symposium (WADES) is an annual research conference which highlights academic work from researchers at leading economics institutions in development economics in the Washington DC area. Researchers from George Washington University, University of Maryland, Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins University, University of Virginia, the World Bank, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), American University, George Mason University, and the Center for Global Development are all participants in the symposium. The 2021 virtual-WADES will be hosted by the Georgetown University Initiative for Innovation, Development, and Evaluation.

Agenda

Thursday, May 13, 2:00 pm – 6:00 pm

2:00 – 2:30: Faculty Presentation:

Remi Jedwab (GWU): “Estimating the Spillover Effects of Foreign Conflict: Evidence from Boko Haram”

2:45 – 3:30: Student Presentation:

Deniz Sanin (Georgetown): “Do Domestic Violence Laws Protect Women from Domestic Violence? Evidence from Rwanda”

Discussant: Kenneth Leonard (Maryland)

3:45 – 4:15: Washington Area Research Showcase: Poster Session

4:30 – 5:15: Student Presentation:

Tomohiro Hara (Maryland): “Radio and racism during Apartheid”

Discussant: Alessandra Fenizia (GWU)

5:30 – 6:00: Faculty Presentation:

Shan Aman-Rana (UVA): “Gender, information exchange and choice over co-workers: experimental evidence” (with Clement Minaudier, Brais Alvarez Pereira, and Shamyla Chaudry)

Friday, May 14, 2:00 pm – 5:30 pm

2:00 – 2:30: Faculty Presentation:

M. R. Sharan (Maryland): “Something to Complain About: How Minority Representatives Overcome Ethnic Differences”

2:45 – 3:30: Student Presentation:

Luan Santos (UVA): “Deadly Politics: Political Connections, Intergovernmental Transfers, and Mortality”

Discussant: Jishnu Das (Georgetown)

3:30 – 4:00: Coffee Break

4:00 – 4:45: Student Presentation:

Federico Haslop (GWU): “Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods and Urbanization: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad”

Discussant: Gaurav Chiplunkar (UVA)

5:00 – 5:30: Faculty Presentation:

Catherine Michaud Leclerc (Georgetown): “Private School Entry, Sorting, and Performance of Public Schools: Evidence from Pakistan”

India’s Environment Challenges and Impact of COVID

Wednesday, May 12, 2021
9:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.
via WebEx

This was the ninth webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, a platform for dialogue and debate co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The ninth event featured Sunita Narain, Director General of the Center for Science and Environment, discussing “India’s Environment Challenges and Impact of COVID.” Laveesh Bhandari and Muthukumar Mani provided discussant remarks. IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh moderated.

This session with India’s leading environmentalist Sunita Narain highlighted findings of the State of India’s Environment 2021, the most comprehensive report on India’s environment produced by 60 notable experts in the subject in India by the Down To Earth magazine at the Centre for Science and the Environment. It has three special sections: an assessment of the pandemic and its impacts a year after, a data analysis of how India’s states are faring on environment and development parameters, and a tribute to the decade of biodiversity.

About the Speaker:

Sunita NarainSunita Narain is a Delhi-based environmentalist and author. She is currently the Director General of Center for Science and Environment (CSE) and Editor of the fortnightly magazine, Down To Earth. Dr. Narain plays an active role in policy formulation on issues of environment and development in India and globally. She has worked extensively on climate change, with a particular interest in advocating for an ambitious and equitable global agreement. Her work on air pollution, water and waste management as well as industrial pollution has led to an understanding of the need for affordable and sustainable solutions in countries like India where the challenge is to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth. She was a member of the Indian Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change and has been awarded the Padma Shri. In 2005, the Centre for Science and Environment, under her leadership was also awarded the Stockholm Water Prize. In 2016, Time magazine selected her as one of the most influential people in the world. She received “The Order of the Polar Star” award from the Swedish Government in 2017. Narain also received the Edinburgh Medal 2020 conferred by the City of Edinburgh Council in the UK. She continues to serve on national and international committees on environment.

About the Discussants:

Laveesh Bhandari is a Senior Fellow at CSEP. Laveesh will lead and develop the climate change capability at CSEP. In addition, he will help define the broad macro agenda and advise on the sub-national reform. Dr Bhandari is an economist, entrepreneur and an environmentalist. He is currently the Director of Indicus Foundation and leads its Environment and Sustainable Livelihoods initiative. Laveesh has published widely on subjects related to sustainable livelihoods, industrial, economic and social reforms in India, economic geography and financial inclusion. He received his PhD in economics from Boston University for which he was awarded the Best thesis in International Economics. He has taught economics in Boston University and IIT Delhi. He has been the managing editor of Journal of Emerging Market Finance, and worked at National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi. He has built, seeded, and exited from three companies in the research, analytics and digital domain.

Muthukumar Mani is a Lead Economist in the Office of the Chief Economist in the South Asia Region (SAR) of the World Bank. In his current position, Mani has been working on climate change mitigation and adaptation issues, water and environmental issues in the SAR. He has led several regional flagship reports on climate change, glaciers, air pollution, and water. His report on “South Asia’s Hotspots,” was featured in the New York Times as a benchmark study. More recently, Mani has been supporting South Asia region’s green, resilient and inclusive recovery program in addition to co-leading the preparation of the SAR Climate Change Action Plan. Prior to joining this position, Mani was in operations with the SAR Climate Change Team, where his work program focused on leading policy dialogue in advancing inclusive green growth and climate change issues with national and sub-national governments.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is the Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy and recently served as a member of the Biden transition team. His work includes analysis of the interaction of exchange rate regimes with monetary policy, capital flows, and trade flows as well as studies of international reserves holdings, country balance sheet exchange rate exposure, the cross-country impact of fiscal policy, the crisis in the euro area, and regional growth disparities. He has also served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Shambaugh received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Preempting a Legacy of Vulnerabilities

Tuesday, May 11, 2021
10:00 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.
via Zoom

About the speaker:

Andrea Deghi is a Financial Sector Expert in the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department. In his role, he led Chapter 3 of April 2021 GFSR aimed to identify financial stability risks arising from the commercial real estate market and to discuss policy tools available to mitigate such risks. Previously, he worked in the Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability Department at the ECB and with the Research Department of the Deutsche Bundesbank. His research spans topics in systemic risk, financial intermediation, real estate markets and monetary policy. Andrea holds a PhD in Economics jointly awarded by the Universities of Siena, Florence and Pisa.

Discussants:

Picture of Adolfo BarajasAdolfo Barajas is a Senior Economist in the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, leading the work for analytical chapters of the Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report since 2017. He has also worked in other departments of the Fund: leading training activities for government officials in the Institute for Capacity Development, as a desk economist for Central American and Caribbean countries in the Western Hemisphere Department, and coordinating the Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia department. Early in his career he worked as a research economist in Colombia’s central bank and at Fedesarrollo, a private think tank in Bogotá. He has written research papers on financial stability, financial development and inclusion, macroeconomic effects of remittances, monetary and exchange rate policy, and dollarization. He received his doctorate in Economics from Stanford University, and his undergraduate degree in Economics from the Universidad de los Andes.

A Multi-Country Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty in Contexts of Forced Displacement

Monday, May 10, 2021
10:00 a.m. EDT

Although forcibly displaced communities face many simultaneous deprivations in their daily lives, in access to education, food security, adequate housing, etc., there is relatively little research on how the multidimensional poverty of these populations differs in both level and composition from that of host communities. This paper presents a multi-country descriptive analysis of multidimensional poverty among forcibly displaced populations and host communities. The paper uses household survey data containing detailed household information and displacement-specific information from Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan to create a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) that captures the overlapping deprivations experienced by poor individuals and households in these countries. It then uses this MPI to explore relationships between multidimensional poverty, displacement status, and gender of the household head, as well as examining the mismatches and overlaps between MPI and monetary poverty. The results reveal significant differences across displaced and host communities in all countries except Nigeria. In three of the countries (Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan) female-headed households have higher MPIs, while in Somalia, those living in male-headed households are more likely to be identified as multidimensionally poor. They also find mismatches between the proportion of people classified as poor by the MPI and the international $1.90/day monetary poverty line, which verifies the need for complementary measures when assessing deprivations among the forcibly displaced.

Meet the Presenter:

Yeshwas Admasu Bogale is part of the Research Fellow in Forced Displacement program which is supported by the FCDO-UNHCR-WB program on building the evidence on forced displacement. He is working on the Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement research program. In his current research, he examines the gender differences in access to resources and opportunities for restoring livelihoods among refugees in Ethiopia. His main research interests are in development economics and agricultural economics, with a special focus in applying impact evaluation techniques. He has a PhD in economics from Heriot-Watt University in United Kingdom and MSc in Economics from the University of Copenhagen.

Meet the Discussant:

Anna Gaunt joined UNHCR’s Regional Bureau for East, the Horn and the Great Lakes in January 2020, taking up the role of Senior Livelihoods and Economic Inclusion Officer. She has over 18 years’ experience in the implementation of international donor-funded humanitarian and development programmes focusing on the economic inclusion of vulnerable populations in the Middle East and Africa.

Anna re-established the Economic Inclusion Exchange East Africa and co-chairs the working group together with NRC. The forum includes members of regional INGOs, UN agencies, IFIs, CSOs, and research institutes across the humanitarian-development nexus operating in East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes region. It stimulates discussions, research, and sharing of best practices related to the livelihoods and economic inclusion of refugee, returnees, other persons in displacement and their host communities. It is an open platform for partners to discuss advocating, researching, investing and realizing projects that strengthen self-reliance and resilience, reduce the need of assistance, contribute to economies, increase protection and enhance durable solutions.

 

About the Event Series

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI 2020 offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Produced in partnership with the UNDP HDRO, the global MPI 2020 compares acute multidimensional poverty for 107 countries in developing regions and provides a detailed image of who is poor and how they are poor. It offers both a global headline and a fine-grained analysis covering 1,279 sub-national regions, and important disaggregation such as children, and people living in urban or rural areas, together with the indicator deprivations of each group. Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as sensitivity analyses, overlapping deprivations, changes over time (poverty trends), and inequality using the global data. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 10 a.m. EST. They will be hosted by IIEP Co-Director Professor James Foster and are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

Globalizing Patient Capital: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in the Americas

Friday, April 30, 2021
9 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy and the GW Elliott School of International Affairs Book Launch Series was pleased to invite you to a book launch discussion of Prof. Stephen B. Kaplan’s Globalizing Patient Capital: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in the Americas (Cambridge University Press).

China’s overseas financing is a distinct form of “patient capital” that marshals the country’s vast domestic resources to create commercial opportunities internationally. Its long-term risk tolerance and lack of policy conditionality has allowed developing economies to sidestep the fiscal austerity tendencies of Western markets and multilaterals. Professor Stephen B. Kaplan will discuss his new book, Globalizing Patient Capital: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in the Americas, which examines China’s state-led capitalism, and the costs and benefits of state versus market approaches to development. In the talk, Professor Kaplan explores how patient capital affects national-level governance across the Americas and beyond, including how Chinese leaders might react to developing nation’s ongoing struggles with debt and dependency.

The book launch was also part of our 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. The conference took place as a virtual series. This conference was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, the GW Center for International Business Education and Research, the Latin American & Hemispheric Studies Program (LAHSP) at GW, the GW Department of Political Science, and the Elliott School Book Launch Series.

Meet the Speaker:

Stephen Kaplan is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs. Professor Kaplan’s research and teaching interests focus on the frontiers of international and comparative political economy, where he specializes in the political economy of global finance and development, the rise of China in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin American politics.

Professor Kaplan joined the GWU faculty in the fall of 2010 after completing a postdoctoral research fellowship at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton University and his Ph.D at Yale University. While at Yale, Kaplan also worked as a researcher for former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. Prior to his doctoral studies, Professor Kaplan was a senior economic analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, writing extensively on developing country economics, global financial market developments, and emerging market crises from 1998 to 2003.

Meet the Discussants:

Picture of Carol WiseProfessor Carol Wise, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Southern California (USC), has written widely on trade integration, exchange rate crises, institutional reform, and the political economy of market restructuring in the Latin American region. Wise is author of the book, Dragonomics: How Latin America is Maximizing (or Missing Out) on China’s International Development Strategy (Yale University Press, 2020), which received USC’s Phi Kappa Phi Faculty Recognition Award in 2021 and the Luciano Tomassini 2021 Award-Honorable Mention for the Best Book on International Relations from the Latin American Studies Association. Professor Wise’s most recent journal articles include: “Playing both Sides of the Pacific: Latin America’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with China,” Pacific Affairs (2016); “Conceptualizing China-Latin America Relations in the 21 st Century” (with Victoria Chonn Ching), The Pacific Review (2017); and, “International Trade Norms in the Age of Covid-19” (with Nicolas Albertoni), Fudan Humanities and Social Science Journal (2020). Professor Wise has held Fulbright Grants to Canada, Mexico, and Peru. She is a member of the core social science faculty at Renmin University’s annual International Summer Program, Beijing. In 2019, Wise was the Fulbright-Masaryk University Distinguished Chair in the Czech Republic. Her latest research compares the political economy of development in Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe.

Picture of Roselyn HsuehRoselyn Hsueh is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University in Philadelphia, where she codirects the Certificate in Political Economy. She is the recipient of the Fulbright Global Scholar Award for research in India, Mexico, and Russia. Her next book, Micro-Institutional Foundations of Capitalism: Sectoral Pathways to Globalization in China, India, and Russia, is under contract with Cambridge University Press. She is the author of China’s Regulatory State: A New Strategy for Globalization (Cornell, 2011), and scholarly articles and book chapters. BBC World News, The Economist, Foreign Affairs, National Public Radio, The Washington Post, and other media outlets have featured her research. She has testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and consulted for The Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Hsueh has served as a Global Order Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania, member of the Georgetown Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues, and Residential Research Faculty Fellow at U.C. Berkeley. She also lectured as a Visiting Professor at Tecnológico de Monterrey in Mexico. She held the Hayward R. Alker Postdoctoral Fellowship at the University of Southern California and conducted international fieldwork in China, Japan, and Taiwan as a U.S. Fulbright Scholar and David L. Boren National Security Fellow. She earned her B.A. and doctorate in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Meet the Moderator: 

Jay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and  International Affairs, and Co- Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

The Policy and Advocacy Use of Multidimensional Poverty Measures

Monday, April 26, 2021
10:00am EDT
via Zoom

Policy and programme impacts of multidimensional (child) poverty measurement

Multidimensional poverty measures are being used increasingly widely, and indeed included in the Sustainable Development Goals which require countries to reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions by 2030. Despite this increased prominence and adoption of multidimensional poverty measures both at the global and national level – including by UNICEF country offices, there have been few if any comprehensive assessments on the policy and programme use of multidimensional poverty measures.

The talk, and the paper behind it, aims to address this knowledge gap to understand how in practice multidimensional poverty measures – with a focus on child poverty – have been used to guide policy makers and practitioners towards poverty reduction. Accordingly, rather than focus on possible or conceptual pathways of impact, the work intends to review real world examples of how measures have been used to better understand their potential and their limits.

Meet the Presenters:

Sola Engilbertsdottir is a Social Policy Specialist at UNICEF Headquarters in NY and has 14 years of social policy and research experience with UNICEF, with a specific focus on child poverty. She has broad experience working in the East Africa region, in Kenya she supported a decentralized social budgeting initiative and the development of the Kenyan social protection strategy. With UNICEF Rwanda she managed the first ever Rwandan multidimensional child poverty analysis and the evaluations of a child sensitive social protection pilot and an integrated ECD programme. Between 2008 and 2012 Sola provided research and policy advocacy support to over 50 countries participating in a Global Study on Child Poverty and Disparities. She currently supervises UNICEF’s child poverty efforts, including support to UNICEF country offices in measuring child poverty and translating child poverty evidence into policy action. Prior to joining UNICEF Sola was a social worker in her native country, Iceland. She holds a degree in Anthropology, as well as a degree in Social Work from the University of Iceland and an MPA from Columbia University.

Picture of David StewartDavid Stewart began his career at the Global Human Development Report of UNDP where he spent 6 years working on the Human Development Reports and indices and researched, wrote and presented Reports on Human Rights, Democracy, the Millennium Development Goals, New Technologies, Cultural Freedom and Development Assistance. Between 2005 and 2010 he worked with UNICEF in New York working initially on State of the World’s Children, and subsequently led the organisation’s work on Policy Advocacy. David spent 4 years as Chief of Social Policy and Evaluation for UNICEF Uganda where he has worked on a range of social policy issues including child poverty, social protection, and public finance for children. He is currently the Chief of the Child Poverty and Social Protection Unit for UNICEF in New York, where he works on measurement, technical support to country and regional offices and global advocacy in the areas of social protection and child poverty. Recent work includes “A World Free from Child Poverty” a practitioner’s guide to achieving the SDGs on child poverty, “Making Cash Transfers Work for Children and Families” and he is currently working on universal child grants and developing UNICEF’s updated social protection framework. He co-chairs the Global Coalition to End Child Poverty, and holds a degree in Economics from the University of Sussex and a Masters in Development Economics from the University of Oxford.

Meet the Discussants:

Gonzalo Hernandez LiconaGonzalo Hernández Licona is Director of the Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network (MPPN), providing strategic direction to the activities of the South-South network of 60 countries and 20 international agencies sharing best practice on how to measure multidimensional poverty.

He was formerly the Executive Secretary of the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL) in Mexico, which is responsible for evaluating social development programmes and carrying out the country’s poverty measurement. Previously, he was Head of Evaluation and Monitoring at the Ministry of Social Development in Mexico.

Between 2017 and 2019 he was the author, together with 14 scientists of the 2019 Global Development Sustainable Report for the United Nations. He was full-time Chair Professor at the Autonomous Institute of Technology of Mexico (ITAM) in the Economy Department from 1991–1992 and 1996–2002. He has taught Development Economics at ITAM since 2003.

International Monetary Fund’s Spring 2021 World Economic Outlook

Friday, April 23, 2021
1:30 pm – 3:00 pm EDT
via Zoom

Agenda

1:30 – 1:35 p.m.     Welcoming Remarks:

Jay Shambaugh, George Washington University 

1:35 – 2:05 p.m.     Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies 

Presenter: Malhar Nabar, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Karen Dynan, Harvard University and Peterson Institute

2:05 – 2:30 p.m.     Chapter 2: After Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

Presenter: Sonali Das, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Danny Leipziger, George Washington University

2:30 – 2:55 p.m.     Chapter 3: Recessions and Recoveries in Labor Markets: Patterns, Policies, and Responses to the COVID-19 Shock

Presenter: Francesca Caselli, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Kristen Broady, Hamilton Project, Brookings and Dillard University

2:55 – 3:00 p.m.      General Q&A and Concluding Remarks

Read the full World Economic Outlook here.

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

Although the contraction of activity in 2020 was unprecedented in living memory, extraordinary policy support prevented even worse economic outcomes. Global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022, revised up from the October 2020 WEO. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility. High uncertainty surrounds this outlook, related to the pandemic’s path, the effectiveness of policies as a bridge to vaccine-powered normalization, and the evolution of financial conditions. Much remains to be done to beat back the pandemic and avoid persistent increases in inequality within countries and divergence across economies.

Chapter 1 Presenter:

Picture of Malhar NabarMalhar Nabar heads the World Economic Studies division in the IMF’s Research Department, which produces the World Economic Outlook (WEO). In previous roles in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department he covered China and Japan, and was mission chief for Hong Kong, SAR. Malhar’s research interests are in financial development, investment, and productivity growth. Before joining the IMF in 2009, he was an Assistant Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. He holds a Ph.D. from Brown University.

 

Chapter 1 Discussant:

Picture of Karen DynanKaren Dynan is a Professor of the Practice in the Harvard University Department of Economics and at the Harvard Kennedy School. She previously served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury from 2014 to 2017. From 2009 to 2013, Dynan was vice president and co-director of the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution. Before that, she was on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board, leading work in macroeconomic forecasting, household finances, and the Fed’s response to the financial crisis. Dynan has also served as a senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers (2003-2004) and as a visiting assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University (1998). Her current research focuses on fiscal and other types of macroeconomic policy, consumer behavior, and household finances. She is also currently a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Dynan received her Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and her A.B. from Brown University.

Chapter 2:  After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

This chapter examines the possible persistent damage (scarring) that may occur from the COVID-19 recession and the channels through which they may occur. Expected medium-term output losses from the pandemic are substantial, at about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. To limit scarring, policymakers should continue to provide support to the most-affected sectors and workers while the pandemic is ongoing. Remedial policies for the setback to human capital accumulation, measures to lift investment, and initiatives to support reallocation will be key to address long-term GDP losses.

Chapter 2 Presenter:

Picture of Sonali DasSonali Das is a senior economist in the World Economic Studies Division in the IMF’s Research Department. Previously, she worked in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, where she covered China, India, Nepal, and Fiji. Her research interests include monetary policy, investment, and financial stability. She holds a PhD in economics from Cornell University.

 

Chapter 2 Discussant:

Picture of Danny LeipzigerDr. Danny Leipziger is Professor of International Business and International Affairs at George Washington University, where he is concurrently the Managing Director of the Growth Dialogue. Professor Leipziger has been a faculty member in the highly-ranked International Business Department since 2009, where he has taught both undergraduate and graduate courses on macroeconomics, applied development, financial crises, and international economics, and he has taught in the GW/IFC/Milken Capital Markets Graduate Program for mid-career government officials since its inception. He has been advisor to the governments of South Korea, Vietnam, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan, Argentina, and South Africa, among others.

A former Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management at the World Bank (2004-2009), he served three World Bank Presidents and held senior management positions in the East Asia and Latin America Regions. While at the World Bank, he led the team preparing the emergency financial bailout loan to Korea in 1997. He was the World Bank’s Director for Finance, Private Sector and Infrastructure for Latin America (1998-2004). He served previously in the U.S. Department of State, and was a Member of the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff.

Dr. Leipziger was Vice Chair of the Spence Commission on Growth and Development and he served on the WEF Council on Economic Progress. An economist with a Ph. D. from Brown University, he has published widely in development economics, finance and banking, and on East Asia and Latin America. He is the author of several books, including Lessons of East Asia (U. of Michigan Press), Stuck in the Middle (Brookings Institution), and Globalization and Growth and more than 50 refereed and published articles in journals and other outlets. He is frequent contributor to VoxEU, Project Syndicate, and other media, and he has appeared on Bloomberg, BBC, an CCTV and Korean TV as expert commentator.

Chapter 3:  Recessions and Recoveries in Labor Markets: Patterns, Policies, and Responses to the COVID-19 Shock

The labor market fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic shock continues, with young and lower-skilled workers particularly hard-hit. This chapter examines the labor market consequences of the crisis, how it compares with previous shocks, and how policies can help. Preexisting employment trends favoring a shift away from jobs that are more vulnerable to automation are accelerating. Policy support for job retention is extremely powerful at reducing scarring and mitigating the unequal impacts from the acute pandemic shock. As the pandemic subsides and the recovery normalizes, a switch toward worker reallocation support measures could help reduce unemployment more quickly and ease the adjustment to the permanent effects of the COVID-19 shock on the labor market.

Chapter 3 Presenter:

Picture of Francesca CaselliFrancesca Caselli is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF Research Department. Previously, she worked in the Systemic Issues Division of the Research Department and in the European Department, participating to Article IV missions to Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Before joining the IMF, she worked at the OECD and visited the Bank of Italy. She holds a Ph.D. in International Economics from the Graduate Institute in Geneva.

 

Chapter 3 Discussant:

Kristen Broady is a Fellow with the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program.  She is the Barron Hilton Endowed Full Professor of Financial Economics on leave at Dillard University in New Orleans.  She previously served as Visiting Professor of Economics at Howard University, Alabama A&M University, Department Chair of Business and Economics at Fort Valley State University, Vice Provost for Graduate Studies at Kentucky State University and as a visiting faculty member at Jiangsu Normal University in Xuzhou, China. Dr. Broady served as a consultant for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C.; a senior research fellow for the Center for Global Policy Solutions in Washington, D.C.; a consultant for the City of East Point, Georgia and as an HBCU consultant for season two of The Quad on Black Entertainment Television (BET) in Atlanta. Her areas of research include racial wealth disparities, mortgage foreclosure risk, labor and automation, and racial health disparities. She earned a BA in criminal justice at Alcorn State University and an MBA and PhD in business administration with a major in economics at Jackson State University.

Peace in the Age of Chaos

Thursday, April 22, 2021
5:00 pm – 6:30 pm EDT
via Zoom

The major challenges facing humanity are global in nature – climate change, pandemics, ever decreasing biodiversity, lack of usable fresh water and food security to name a few. Without a world that is basically peaceful, we will never get the levels of trust, cooperation and inclusiveness needed to solve these issues – yet, what creates peace is poorly understood.

In his ground-breaking new book, Peace in the Age of Chaos: The Best Solution for a Sustainable Future, Steve Killelea, founder of both the Global Peace Index and the world-renowned think tank, the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), shares his personal journey to study, understand and measure peace – a peace that is a positive, tangible and achievable measure of human wellbeing and progress.

This was a discussion with Steve about his new book; why he believes peace is a prerequisite for the survival of society as we know it in the 21 st century; and how Positive Peace, when combined with systems thinking, provides an exciting new way to conceptualise how societies function and a new approach to solving some of the most intractable problems of our time.

Meet the presenter:

Picture of Steve KilleleaAs a global philanthropist, Steve Killelea has laid the foundations to develop an entirely new understanding of peace. As a thought leader, he has reshaped the entire concept to recognise its integrity to the revival of our economic and political systems. Few have provoked global thought amongst both policymakers and members of the public quite to the extent of Steve. An international entrepreneur behind the global think tank, the Institute for Economics and Peace, he combines a highly successful career in technology with a philanthropic focus on peace and sustainable development to shed new light on issues, from terrorism and conflict to economics and prosperity.

Steve harbours over a decade’s worth of award-winning experience, delving into the crucial yet misunderstood concept of global peace. He founded the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) in 2007, as an independent not for profit global research institute analysing the intertwined relationships between business, peace, and economic development. Steve’s funding and thought leadership behind the Institute would see him recognised as one of the World’s 100 Most Influential People on reducing the onset of armed violence. IEP global leadership extends to calculating the economic cost of violence, measuring peace, risk analysis of a nation’s threat levels, and a new understanding of “Positive Peace” – an eight- pillar model embracing the attitudes, institutions, and structures required to create and sustain peaceful societies. As one of the world’s most impactful think tanks, its research is extensively used by multi-laterals, including the United Nations, World Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), as well as thousands of university courses around the world. He is also the founder of the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading quantitative measurement of global peacefulness, ranking 163 countries, and independent territories.

Meet the discussant:

Picture of Pedro ConceiçãoSince January 2019, Pedro Conceição is Director of the Human Development Report Office, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Prior to that, from October 2014, he was Director, Strategic Policy, at the Bureau for Policy and Programme Support of UNDP, where he co-led the UN’s participation in the G20 Finance and Central Bank Governors Meetings, managed UNDP’s engagement in the Financing for Development processes, and contributed to articulate UNDP’s support to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals. Before that, he was Chief-Economist and Head of the Strategic Advisory Unit at the Regional Bureau for Africa (from 1 December 2009).

Prior to this, he was Director of the Office of Development Studies (ODS) from March 2007 to November 2009, and Deputy Director of ODS, from October 2001 to February 2007. His work on financing for development and on global public goods was published by Oxford University Press in books he co-edited (The New Public Finance: Responding to Global Challenges, 2006; Providing Global Public Goods: Managing Globalization, 2003).

He has published on inequality, the economics of innovation and technological change, and development in, amongst others journals, the African Development Review, Review of Development Economics, Eastern Economic Journal, Ecological Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. He co-edited several books including: Innovation, Competence Building, and Social Cohesion in Europe- Towards a Learning Society (Edward Elgar, 2002) and Knowledge for Inclusive Development (Quorum Books, 2001).

Prior to coming to UNDP, he was an Assistant Professor at the Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal, teaching and researching on science, technology and innovation policy. He has degrees in Physics from Instituto Superior Técnico and in Economics from the Technical University of Lisbon and a PhD. in Public Policy from the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, where he studied with a Fulbright scholarship.

Matthew Levinger is Research Professor of International Affairs at the George Washington University. He directs the National Security Studies Program, an executive education program for senior officials from the U.S. government and its international partners, as well as the Master of International Policy and Practice Program at GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Before joining GW, he was Senior Program Officer at the United States Institute of Peace, where he developed and taught executive education programs on international conflict analysis and prevention for foreign policy professionals from the United States and overseas. From 2005 to 2007, Levinger was Founding Director of the Academy for Genocide Prevention at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum. At the Holocaust Museum, he played a key role in launching “Crisis in Darfur,” a joint initiative of the Museum and Google Earth, as well as the Genocide Prevention Task Force, co-chaired by former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former Secretary of Defense William Cohen.  Before moving to Washington, he was associate professor of History at Lewis & Clark College in Portland, Oregon; he has also taught at Stanford University. In 2003-2004, he was a William C. Foster Fellow at the U.S. Department of State. He has consulted for organizations including the World Bank, IREX, the National Democratic Institute, and the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations.

Levinger’s research and teaching have focused on conflict analysis and prevention, as well as the history of nationalism, revolutionary politics, and genocide. His handbook Conflict Analysis: Understanding Causes, Unlocking Solutions was published by the U.S. Institute of Peace Press in 2013.  He is also the author of Enlightened Nationalism: The Transformation of Prussian Political Culture, 1806-1848 (Oxford, 2000) and coauthor of The Revolutionary Era, 1789-1850 (Norton, 2002). He received his B.A. from Haverford College and his Ph.D. in History from the University of Chicago.

Meet the Moderator: 

Picture of Sabina AlkireSabina Alkire directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), a research centre within the Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford. Dr Alkire works on a new approach to measuring poverty and well-being that goes beyond the traditional focus on income and growth. This multidimensional approach to measurement includes social goals, such as health, education, nutrition, standard of living and other valuable aspects of life. She devised a new method for measuring multidimensional poverty with her colleague James Foster (OPHI Research Associate and Professor of Economics at George Washington University) that has advantages over other poverty measures and has been adopted by the Mexican Government, the Bhutanese Government in their ‘Gross National Happiness Index’ and the United Nations Development Programme. Dr Alkire has been called upon to provide input and advice to several initiatives seeking to take a broader approach to well-being rather than just economic growth, for example, the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (instigated by President Sarkozy); the United Nations Human Development Programme Human Development Report Office; the European Commission; and the UK’s Department for International Development.

 

This event was co-sponsored by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI), the UNDP Human Development Report Office (UNDP-HDRO), and the Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP).

Logo of the Institute for Economics and Peace
Logo of OPHI
Logo of IIEP

Humanitarianism and Human Rights: A World of Differences?

Tuesday, April 20, 2021
12:30 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. EDT
via Zoom

Humanitarianism and Human Rights: A World of Differences? (Cambridge University Press) explores the fluctuating relationship between human rights and humanitarianism. Leading scholars probe the shifting meanings of human rights and humanitarianism across ethics, obligations, duties, history, and modern-day practice.

The GW Elliott School of International Affairs Book Launch Series was proud to present a discussion of the book led by its editor, Michael Barnett, and co-sponsored by the Humanitarian Action Initiative and the Institute for International Economic Policy.

 

About the Host

Picture of Alyssa AyresThe roundtable discussion will be introduced by Alyssa Ayres, the Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Before joining the Elliott School, she was a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia under the Obama administration. She holds a Ph.D. in South Asian Languages and Civilizations from the University of Chicago.

 

About the Moderator

Picture of Maryam DeloffreMaryam Z. Deloffre is an Associate Professor of International Affairs at the George Washington University and the current Director of the Humanitarian Action Initiative at the Elliott School of International Affairs. Throughout her career, she has explored the nature of global order and how it is organized. Her investigations into the governance and coordination of global humanitarian and health assistance focuses on collective accountability standard-setting, and the coordination of emergency response. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the George Washington University.

 

About the Panelists

Picture of Michael BarnettMichael Barnett (editor) is a University Professor of International Affairs and Political Science at the George Washington University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the recipient of various fellowships, grants, and research awards for his work, including from the United States Institute for Peace, Smith Richardson Foundation, and The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. He has taught and written extensively in the areas of global governance, international organizations, humanitarianism, and Middle Eastern politics. Among his many books are Empire of Humanity: A History of Humanitarianism; Sacred Aid (co-edited with Janice Stein); Power and Global Governance (co-edited with Raymond Duvall); and Humanitarianism in Question (co-edited with Thomas Weiss). He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Minnesota.

Picture of Ilana FeldmanIlana Feldman is the Vice Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs and Professor of Anthropology, History, and International Affairs at the George Washington University. Her research has focused on the Palestinian experience, both inside and outside of historic Palestine, examining practices of government, humanitarianism, policing, displacement, and citizenship. She holds a Ph.D. in Anthropology and History from the University of Michigan.

 

 

Picture of Miriam TicktinMiriam Ticktin is an Associate Professor of Anthropology at The New School for Social Research. She has written on immigration, humanitarianism and border walls in France and the US, and how bodies and biologies are shaped by gender and race. She received her Ph.D in Anthropology from Stanford University and the École des hautes études en sciences sociales in Paris, and an M.A. in English Literature as a Rhodes Scholar.

 

 

 

 

Horizontal and Intersecting Wealth Inequalities in Mozambique – 1997 to 2017

Monday, April 19, 2021
10:00 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

In this seminar of the MPI series, a UNU-WIDER paper was presented.

Picture of Ricardo SantosPresenter: Ricardo Santos is a Research Fellow of the United Nations University World Institute of Development Economics Research – UNU-WIDER, stationed in Maputo, Mozambique, as Technical Advisor to the Centre of Economics and Management Studies at the Faculty of Economics of Eduardo Mondlane University. His doctoral research examined the post-conflict labour market and education sector in Timor-Leste, looking at the medium-run impact of exposure to violence and conflict produce on the households’ choices regarding education. His recent research has focused on the Mozambican labour market, school-to-work transition and on poverty and inequality. His previous work in the development field includes voluntary work for one year in Timor-Leste as a member of a Portuguese NGO and, Program Manager for Timor-Leste and Angola and Deputy Executive Officer of the same NGO.

 

 

Abstract: This study seeks to add to the research on inequality in Least Developed Countries, namely in Mozambique, by measuring and mapping indicators of between-group and within-group wealth inequality along geographic and ethnolinguistic identities. Using census data for 1997, 2007 and 2017, we adapt the Multidimensional Poverty Index applied by the Government of Mozambique to build a corresponding Household Wealth Index. We use it to identify possible intersecting inequalities, measuring between-group inequality along joint provincial – urban/rural – ethnolinguistic identities. Additionally, we find heterogeneous evolutions of group inequality between 1997 and 2017 among the country’s eleven provinces.
We find that, while there is a general improvement in the average household wealth indicators, there is a strong suggestion of increasing group inequalities between 1997 and 2017. While this is manifest throughout the country, in general, there is evidence that the Southern provinces may be experiencing a more equitable development. We find evidence that this evolution may be driven by a urban-rural decoupling, added to low internal migration.
These are insights from correlates. No causal inference can be made from this analysis. However, the differences in average wealth between groups, if perceived, may feed grievances. They should be better understood, so that underlying causes can be addressed.

About the Series: The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report Office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to announce new events in our special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI 2020 offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Produced in partnership with the UNDP HDRO, the global MPI 2020 compares acute multidimensional poverty for 107 countries in developing regions and provides a detailed image of who is poor and how they are poor. It offers both a global headline and a fine-grained analysis covering 1,279 sub-national regions, and important disaggregation such as children, and people living in urban or rural areas, together with the indicator deprivations of each group. Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as sensitivity analyses, overlapping deprivations, changes over time (poverty trends), and inequality using the global data. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire-Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars will continue to take place online on Mondays at 10 a.m. EDT. IIEP Co-Director Professor James Foster will host and the events are open to anyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

Quality-adjusted Population Density

Tuesday, April 13, 2021
12:30pm – 2:00pm
via Zoom

About the Presenter:

Picture of Vernon HendersonJ. Vernon Henderson joined the London School of Economics in September 2013 as School Professor of Economic Geography, having previously been Eastman Professor of Political Economy at Brown University, USA.

His research focuses on urbanization in developing countries, looking both within and across cities and regions. His current research looks at topics such as the evolution of the urban system in sub-Saharan Africa; factor market distortions, city size and welfare in China; spatial equilibrium models; the dynamics of investment in the built environment in cities, how colonial legacy affects sprawl and the spatial layout of cities; the link between ethno-linguistic diversity and urban concentration worldwide; and the role of geography and history in economic development.

His recent work is published in journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, American Economic Review, Review of Economic Studies, Science and Journal of Development Economics. He has been a co-editor of the Journal of Urban Economics and the Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, and serves on a number of editorial boards. He is a founder and past President of the Urban Economics Association.

Over the years, he has worked with governments in Asia and Africa directly or indirectly through institutions such as the World Bank and DFIDic on formulating urban policies.

Paper: Quality-adjusted Population Density, joint with Adam Storeygard (Tufts) and David Weil (Brown)

Abstract: Quality-adjusted population density (QAPD) is population divided by l and area that has been adjusted for geographic characteristics. We derive weights on these geographic characteristics from a global regression of population density at the quarter-degree level with country fixed effects. We show, first, that while income per capita is uncorrelated with conventionally measured population density across countries, there is a strong negative correlation between income per capita and Q APD; second, that the magnitude of this relationship exceeds the plausible structural effect of density on income, suggesting a negative correlation between QAPD and productivity or factor accumulation; and third, that higher Q APD in poor countries is primarily due to population growth since 1820. We argue that these facts are best understood as results of the differential timings of economic takeoff and demographic transition across countries, and particularly the rapid transfer of health technologies from early to late developers.

Revised Arab Multidimensional Poverty Index 2021

Monday, April 12, 2021
10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
via Zoom

The session presented the final proposal for the revised Arab Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) framework, as a result of technical work undertaken by ESCWA, OPHI and the League of Arab States (LAS), and consultations with partner organizations. This revised Arab MPI was endorsed during the 40th ministerial session of the LAS Social Ministerial Council on 17 December 2020, as a basis for the forthcoming Arab Poverty Report. The presentation layed out the process leading up to the formal endorsement, the structure of the revised Arab MPI – its two pillars, and their dimensions and individual indicators – and the preliminary estimates of multidimensional poverty in 11 Arab countries using the revised index. The session also presented a brief introduction about the MPI Assist Tool.

Meet the Presenter:

Sama El Hage Sleiman

Ms. Sama El Hage Sleiman is a Statistician at ESCWA since 2015. She is also an epidemiologist and an Actuary by training. Previously, she has served as a statistical consultant and a university lecturer for more than 7 years. At ESCWA, her research interest focuses on multidimensional poverty and other composite indicators in the Arab region, such as the regional Economic Justice Index and the Egypt Governorate Competitiveness Index. She participated in the development of the Arab MPI, in its conception and revisions. More recently, she designed a web-based tool for computing MPIs, to be officially launched in July 2021. Currently, Ms. El Hage Sleiman is co-leading the Poverty Project as well as the Future of Work Project at ESCWA.

Meet the Discussant: 

Xavier MonceroXavier Moncero is an economist from the San Francisco de Quito University and Master in Economics from Georgetown University. Since 2015, he has headed of the Social Statistics Unit of ECLAC Statistics Division, whose areas of work include the measurement and analysis of poverty and income distribution, the compilation and harmonization of household surveys and the production and dissemination of social statistics. He coordinated the update of ECLAC methodology of income poverty measurement and is currently leading the work on a regionally comparable multidimensional poverty index for Latin America. He also serves as coordinator of the Statistical Conference of the Americas.

About the Event Series

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI 2020 offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Produced in partnership with the UNDP HDRO, the global MPI 2020 compares acute multidimensional poverty for 107 countries in developing regions and provides a detailed image of who is poor and how they are poor. It offers both a global headline and a fine-grained analysis covering 1,279 sub-national regions, and important disaggregation such as children, and people living in urban or rural areas, together with the indicator deprivations of each group. Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as sensitivity analyses, overlapping deprivations, changes over time (poverty trends), and inequality using the global data. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 10 a.m. EST. They will be hosted by IIEP Co-Director Professor James Foster and are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

Minimum Performance Targets, Multitasking and Incentives: Theory and Evidence from China’s Air Quality Controls

Friday, April 9, 2021
9:30 a.m.-11 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

As the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China has launched serious efforts to tighten its environmental regulation and curb air pollution in the past decade. A distinctive feature of Beijing’s approach is the critical role played by local governments in complying with central directives. China’s local officials are currently facing the dual tasks of pursuing local economic development and curbing air pollution, which are potentially conflicting with each other. To resolve this multitasking challenge, China has recently introduced minimum targets for air quality controls to discipline local officials while continuing to link their promotion prospects to local economic performance (such as GDP growth).

In the event, Peking University’s Li-An Zhou discussed how local Chinese officials respond strategically to minimum air quality control targets when they care more about pursuing regional economic development, which is closely linked to their career prospects. Using a novel prefecture-day-level dataset on air quality, Zhou finds strong evidence that air quality tends to improve when the air quality target is doomed to fail, but deteriorates significantly after the early fulfillment of the target is guaranteed. These “asymmetric” strategic responses are mainly driven by “outsiders” – local officials with no previous exposure to the regions to which they are assigned. Greater pressure to promote local economic development reinforces outsiders’ asymmetric responses. For “non-outsiders” who have been promoted from the local area and who are more likely to intrinsically value the local environment, air quality performance is stable in both cases of target fulfillment. The study sheds light on how minimum air quality targets have worked in China’s context and highlights the role of intrinsic motivations in mitigating strategic responses to minimum performance targets in a multitasking environment.

JHU’s Matthew Kahn served as a discussant and IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh served as a moderator, with a brief introduction from IIEP’s Chao Wei.

Co-sponsors:
Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

Meet the Speakers: 

Li-An Zhou Li-An Zhou is is Professor of Economics and Associate Dean of Guanghua School of
Management at Peking University. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford
University. His research interests include political economy, industrial organization,
economic development, and Chinese economy. Dr. Zhou has published papers in
leading international journals of economics and management including American
Economic Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, Journal of
Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics, and Strategic Management Journal.

Meet the Discussant: 

Matthew E. KahnMatthew E. Kahn is the Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Economics and Business at Johns Hopkins University and the Director of JHU’s 21st Century Cities Initiative. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research fellow at IZA. He has taught at Columbia, the Fletcher School at Tufts University, UCLA and USC. He has served as a Visiting Professor at Harvard and Stanford and as the Low Tuck Kwong Distinguished Visiting Professor at the National University of Singapore. He is a graduate of Hamilton College and the London School of Economics. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago. He is the author of Green Cities: Urban Growth and the Environment (Brookings Institution Press 2006) and the co-author (joint with Dora L. Costa) of Heroes and Cowards: The Social Face of War (Princeton University Press 2009). He is also the author of Climatopolis (Basic Books 2010) and Blue Skies over Beijing: Economic Growth and the Environment in China (joint with Siqi Zheng published by Princeton Press in 2016). He has also published three other Amazon Kindle books on urban economics and microeconomics. His research focuses on urban and environmental economics.

Meet the Moderators: 

Jay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and  International Affairs, and Co- Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Chao WeiChao Wei received her PhD in Economics from Stanford University in 2001. She also holds an MA in economics from Columbia University and a BA in economics from Fudan University in China. She worked at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill for two years before joining the George Washington University in 2003. Her research interests focus on the intersection of macroeconomics and financial economics, with an emphasis on the asset pricing implications of production economies with and without nominal rigidities. Her current research examines the impact of personal and corporate income taxes on asset returns. She teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in Money and banking, and Macroeconomic Theory.

Why Does the Fed Move Markets so Much? A Model of Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Aversion

Wednesday, April 7, 2021
02:30 p.m. – 04:00 p.m.
via Zoom

The same habit preferences that explain the equity volatility puzzle in quarterly data also naturally explain large high-frequency stock responses to monetary policy news. To show this, we newly integrate a work-horse New Keynesian model with habit formation preferences. The model generates endogenously time-varying risk premia from level shocks to interest rates because a surprise increase in the short-term interest rate lowers output and consumption relative to habit, raising risk aversion and amplifying the fall in stocks. The model explains the positive comovement between long-term breakeven and stocks on FOMC dates with news about long-term inflation.

Rethinking Financial Regulation for the 21st Century

Wednesday, March 24, 2021
12:30pm – 2:00pm
via WebEx

This event was joint with GW Law Business and Finance Law program and featured Professor Emeritus Arthur E. Wilmarth, Jr. and discussant Professor Erik Gerding.

The financial crisis of 2007-09 and the pandemic crisis of 2020 showed that global financial markets are dangerously unstable. Those markets are dominated by “too-big-to-fail” universal banks – commercial banks that engage in capital markets activities – and large shadow banks, such as private equity firms, securities broker-dealers, and hedge funds. Governments and central banks rescued financial markets in 2008 and 2020 with enormous bailouts and unconventional monetary policies. Those policy measures produced soaring global debt levels, aggressive risk-taking by investors, heavily indebted sovereigns, and bloated central bank balance sheets. In addition, large technology companies are seeking to enter the banking business, a development that could transform the banking industry and extend government bailouts for banks across our commercial economy. The seminar discussed regulatory policies that would return our financial system to a structure that is much more stable and far less dependent on government bailouts.

This webinar was moderated by Dr. Sunil Sharma, Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, with introductory remarks made by IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh and Director of the Business and Finance Law Program at the George Washington University Law School Jeremiah Pam. This event was co-sponsored by the GW Law School’s Business and Finance Law Program and the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU.

About the speaker:
Picture of Arthur WilmarthArthur E. Wilmarth, Jr. joined the GWU faculty in 1986, after 11 years in private law practice. Prior to joining GW Law’s faculty, he was a partner in the Washington, DC, office of Jones Day. During his 34 years as a member of the faculty, Professor Wilmarth taught courses in banking law, contracts, corporations, professional responsibility, and American constitutional history. He served as Executive Director of the Center for Law, Economics & Finance from 2011 to 2014.
Professor Wilmarth is the author of Taming the Megabanks: Why We Need a New Glass-Steagall Act (Oxford University Press, 2020), and co-editor of The Panic of 2008: Causes, Consequences, and Implications for Reform (Edward Elgar, 2010). He has published more than 40 law review articles and book chapters in the fields of financial regulation and American constitutional history. In 2005, the American College of Consumer Financial Services Lawyers awarded him its prize for the best law review article published in the field of consumer financial services law during the previous year.
Professor Wilmarth has testified before committees of the US Congress, the California legislature, and the DC Council on financial regulatory issues. In 2010, he was a consultant to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, the body established by Congress to report on the causes of the financial crisis of 2007-09. During 2008-2009, he served as Chair of the Section on Financial Institutions and Consumer Financial Services of the Association of American Law Schools, after serving as the Section’s Chair-Elect and Annual Program Chair during 2007-2008. Professor Wilmarth is a member of the international advisory board of the Journal of Banking Regulation, published by Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. He is also a member of the advisory board of the American Antitrust Institute.

About the discussant:
Picture of Erik GerdingErik Gerding is a Professor at the University of Colorado Law School. His research interests include securities, banking law, the regulation of financial markets, products, and institutions, payment systems, and corporate governance. His research also focuses on the application of technology to financial regulation, including analyzing the use of technologies in governing financial markets. Professor Girding’s book Law, Bubbles, and Financial Regulation (2014) examines the interaction of asset price bubbles and financial regulation. Prior to joining academia, Professor Gerding practiced law in the New York and Washington D.C. offices of Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP. His practice at the firm included representing clients in the financial services and technology industries in an array of financial transactions and regulatory matters.

About the moderators:
Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF- Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, Dr. Sharma was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, a M.A. from the Delhi School of Economics, and a B.A. (Honors) from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University. His current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Jay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Co- Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Picture of Jeremy PamJeremiah Pam is the Director of the Business and Finance Law Program at George Washington University Law School. He has extensive work experience in international affairs and international crises, including six years practicing in international finance and sovereign debt restructuring at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP in New York, followed by government service as a financial diplomat and strategist with the Treasury Department in Baghdad and Washington, and with the State Department in Kabul. Mr. Pam teaches courses on financial stability, international crises, and economic and technological innovation. He also served for four years as a U.S. Air Force officer prior to law school. Mr. Pam received a JD from Columbia, an MBA from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an MA in Political Science from Columbia, and an AB from Harvard.

 

Belt and Road Initiative

Wednesday, March 31, 2021
5:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.
via Zoom

 
The Undergraduate Economics Society is proud to announce a discussion with Jennifer Hillman, Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations. In this conversation, we discussed China’s Belt and Road Initiative and a new CFR Independent Taskforce Report on the topic directed by Hillman. The dialogue addressed topics ranging from the effects of the COVID-19 economy on BRI’s sustainability to forecasting the initiative’s future amid a pullback in official Chinese investments.

Co-sponsors:
The Undergraduate Economics Society

Africa after COVID-19: Charting a New Course for Economic Growth and Development

Tuesday, March 9, 2021
10:00am – 11:30am
via Zoom

Join IIEP and the Institute for African Studies for a discussion with Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki, CEO of the African Union Development Agency/NEPAD; Dr. Vera Songwe, Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, and Dr. Khaled Sherif, Vice President for Regional Development, Integration, and Business Delivery at the African Development Bank, on charting Africa’s path out of economic crisis toward a more resilient future.
 
The COVID-19 pandemic has swept across the world with devastating impact on human health and livelihoods,  deepening existing vulnerabilities and disparities within societies, national economies, and the global system. African economies shrank by an average 2.1 percent in 2020 and will emerge from the crisis weakened and more deeply in debt. The crisis compels new thinking on the path to recovery and redressing national and global economic inequality and fragility. What new tools and approaches are needed to speed Africa’s economic recovery and build future reslience? What role for African-based and global multilateral institutions in recovery and growth? What entry points for broader international solidarity and  support? Ours speakers are leaders at the forefront of these debates within African multilateral insitutions and global fora.
 

Co-sponsors:
GWU Institute for African Studies

Meet the Speakers: 

Dr. Ibrahim Assane MayakiDr. Ibrahim Assane Mayaki of the Republic of Niger is the CEO of the African Union Development Agency/New Economic Partnership for African Development (AUDA-NEPAD), mandated to facilitate and coordinate  implementation of regional and continental priority development programs and projects.  Dr. Mayaki served as Prime Minister of Niger from 1997-2000 and previously as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister in Charge of African Integration and Cooperation. Dr. Mayaki holds a Masters degree from the National School of Public Administration (Enap), Quebec, Canada and a PhD.

 

dr. vera songweVera Songwe of Cameroon is Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, appointed in April 2017. She previoulsy served as the International Finance Corporation’s Regional Director for West and Central Africa, World Bank Country Director for Senegal, Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania, and Adviser to the Managing Director of the World Bank for the Africa. She holds a PhD in Mathematical Economics at the Centre for Operations Research and Econometrics, an MA in Law and Economics, a Diplôme d’Etudes Approfondies in Economic Sciences and Politics from the Université Catholique de Louvain, and a BA  in Economics and Political Science from the University of Michigan.

 

Dr. Khaled Sherif is Vice President for Regional Development, Integration, and Business Delivery at the African Development Bank. Previously, he held several senior positions at the World Bank, including Sector Manager for the Private and Financial Sector Development department and Chief Administrative Officer for Africa Resource Management Unit. He has worked at the Agency for International Development in Egypt and at Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and Administrative Development also in Egypt He holds a B.A and an M.A. in Economics and an M.A. in Political Science from the American University in Cairo; and holds a Ph. D. in Public Policy and Management at Boston University.

Growth Elasticity of Multidimensional Poverty in India Between 2005/06 and 2015/16

Monday, March 8, 2021
10:00am – 11:15am
via WebEx

Post-reform India has generated high economic growth, yet progress in income poverty and many other key development outcomes has remained modest. This paper seeks to explore how inclusive has Indian economic growth been in terms of reducing multidimensional poverty between 2005-06 and 2015-16, employing a constellation of elasticity and semi-elasticity measures – each capturing different forms and components of inclusivity. We assess multidimensional poverty by the well-known Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). A growth elasticity measure captures the percentage change (relative) in a target variable due to a one percent economic growth; whereas, a growth semi-elasticity measure captures the absolute change in a target variable due to a one percent economic growth. Our estimates show that, nationally, a one percent annual economic growth during the study period is associated with 0.0027 units (absolute) or 1.34 percent (relative) annual reduction in the MPI. Our estimates of horizontal inclusiveness, assessed by the change in state MPIs associated with a one percent of national economic growth, show a wide variation across states. For instance, for every one percent national economic growth, the MPI in Bihar falls only by 0.96 percent, but the MPI in Kerala falls by 3.79 percent. Our analyses and application in the paper demonstrate the efficacy of these tools for measuring inclusiveness of economic growth in terms of reducing multidimensional poverty as well as inform policy.

Co-sponsors:
Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI)
UNDP Human Development Report Office

About the Presenter:

pic of Dr Suman SethDr. Suman Seth is an associate professor at the Leeds University Business School. He joined the business school in 2015. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) within the Oxford Department of International Development at the University of Oxford. He obtained a PhD degree in Economics from Vanderbilt University in the USA. After his PhD, he served as a Research Office and as a Senior Research Officer at OPHI between 2010 and 2015. He is primarily interested in Development Economics with a particular emphasis on measurement methodologies and policy-oriented applications. Previously, he has served as consultants to the Regional Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), to the Development Research Groups at the World Bank, and to the Asian Development Bank.

About the Discussant:

Ajay Chhibber is Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, the Atlantic Council, Washington DC.

He was the Chief Economic Advisor, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). He was earlier the first Director General (Minister of State) , Independent Evaluation Office, Government of India and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), India – affiliated institute of the Ministry of Finance – where he completed a major study on India’s Public Sector Enterprises.

He held senior positions at the UN as Assistant Secretary General and Assistant Administrator, UNDP and managed their program for Asia and the Pacific. At the World Bank he served as Country Director in Turkey and Vietnam and Division Chief for Indonesia and the Pacific and Lead Economist, West Africa Department. He was also Director of the 1997 World Development Report on the Role of the State. He also worked in the World Bank’s Research Department, as Advisor to the Chief Economist of the World Bank and at the Public Economics Division.

He has a Ph. D from Stanford University, a Masters from the Delhi School of Economics. He also has attended advanced management programs at the Harvard Business School, Harvard University and INSEAD, France. He taught at Georgetown University and at the University of Delhi. He has published widely including 5 books in development economics, and is a contributor (columnist) to several newspapers.

He is now writing a book on “India: A Reset for the 21st Century” under contract with Harper-Collins.

About the Moderators:

Picture of Sabina AlkireSabina Alkire directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), a research centre within the Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford. Dr Alkire works on a new approach to measuring poverty and well-being that goes beyond the traditional focus on income and growth. This multidimensional approach to measurement includes social goals, such as health, education, nutrition, standard of living and other valuable aspects of life. She devised a new method for measuring multidimensional poverty with her colleague James Foster (OPHI Research Associate and Professor of Economics at George Washington University) that has advantages over other poverty measures and has been adopted by the Mexican Government, the Bhutanese Government in their ‘Gross National Happiness Index’ and the United Nations Development Programme. Dr Alkire has been called upon to provide input and advice to several initiatives seeking to take a broader approach to well-being rather than just economic growth, for example, the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (instigated by President Sarkozy); the United Nations Human Development Programme Human Development Report Office; the European Commission; and the UK’s Department for International Development.

Picture of James E. FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

About the Event Series

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) at George Washington University and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), with the support of the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report office (UNDP HDRO), are pleased to host a special seminar series on the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (global MPI). Goal 1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end poverty in all its forms and dimensions. The global MPI 2020 offers a tool to make progress towards this goal.

Produced in partnership with the UNDP HDRO, the global MPI 2020 compares acute multidimensional poverty for 107 countries in developing regions and provides a detailed image of who is poor and how they are poor. It offers both a global headline and a fine-grained analysis covering 1,279 sub-national regions, and important disaggregation such as children, and people living in urban or rural areas, together with the indicator deprivations of each group. Bringing together the academic and policy spheres, this series of seminars will highlight topics such as sensitivity analyses, overlapping deprivations, changes over time (poverty trends), and inequality using the global data. The sessions will also include work that applies the global MPI methodology, the Alkire Foster method, to innovative measures.

The seminars are taking place online on Mondays at 10 a.m. EST. They will be hosted by IIEP Co-Director Professor James Foster and are open to everyone focused on improving the lived experience of those who are deprived.

 

Inequality among the Multidimensionally Poor in over 100 countries

Monday, March 1, 2021
10:00am – 11:15am
via WebEx

Inequality among the poor matters because it matters that the poorest poor are not left behind. Leaving them behind is very often the case, as they are at the crossroads of marginalized groups and it is very difficult for policies -even at sub-national levels- to actually and effectively reach them. In this paper we examine inequality within over 100 countries among the multidimensionally poor, as measured by the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (G-MPI). We compare two approaches proposed so far for incorporating inequality into the measurement of multidimensional poverty. One is the ‘assimilated approach’, by which the poverty measure incorporates sensitivity to inequality among the poor, as it is the case of the MGamma class of poverty measures proposed by Alkire and Foster (2016, 2019); this uses a relative inequality measure. The other is the ‘complementary approach’, by which the poverty measure is complemented alongside the variance of deprivation scores among the poor, an absolute inequality measure.

We find that country rankings by absolute vs. relative inequality among the poor differ quite substantially, which suggests that the selection of one or the other type of inequality matters when only that aspect of poverty is evaluated. However, the country ranking by the G-MPI, which considers poverty incidence and intensity, is highly robust to the incorporation of inequality into measurement of poverty, either using the MGamma2 measure or complementing the G-MPI with the variance among the poor. In other words: bad things seem to go together. Countries with a higher proportion of their population in multidimensional poverty tend to have higher average poverty intensity, and such higher average intensity tends to be more unequally distributed among the poor. This does not mean that it does not matter to know and measure inequality among the poor. A high inequality among the poor signals the need to develop different kinds of policies according to different poverty intensities. Our understanding is that it is the distribution of the deprivation scores alongside the dimensional decomposition what can be more illuminating for designing effective policies to leave no-one behind.

About the speakers: 

Picture of Maria Emma SantosMaria Emma Santos is an Assistant Professor at Dept. of Economics at Universidad Nacional del Sur and a CONICET Research Fellow at the Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur, Bahia Blanca, Argentina. She is also a Research Associate to the Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Humano (CEDH) of Universidad de San Andres in Argentina, and to the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, at the University of Oxford, UK. Together with Sabina Alkire, she developed the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index, published in the Human Development Report since 2010. She works on measurement and analysis of multidimensional poverty.

Picture of HeribertoHeriberto Tapia has been a senior member of the writing-research team at the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) since 2014. Previously, he served in the Executive Office of UNDP (2012-2014) and in the Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean (1998-2005). He has worked as a consultant to the IMF, UNDP and ECLAC. Furthermore, he has been a lecturer at Columbia University (New York), University of Chile (Santiago) and University Diego Portales (Santiago). Heriberto holds a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University, and a Master’s degree in economics and a Commercial Engineering degree from the University of Chile.

pic of hector morenoHector Moreno is a Research Officer at OPHI. He supports OPHI’s outreach team in building, updating and statistically assessing national multidimensional poverty indices (MPIs) in Asian and Latin-American countries. Previously, he served as Research Coordinator for the Human Development Research Office at the UNDP Mexico, and as Under Director of Poverty Methodologies for the Mexican government at CONEVAL. He has also been a consultant for private, public and international institutions. He has taught multiple courses in Statistics at Sciences Po Paris in France and a variety of courses in Economics at Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico. He has refereed the Journal of Economic Inequality (Elsevier), the Politicas Públicas Journal (Tec de Monterrey) and the Review of Economics and Statistics (MIT). He holds a PhD in Economics (Paris School of Economics).

Sabina Alkire directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI). She is the Associate Professor of Development Studies in the Oxford Department of International Development at the University of Oxford. Her research interests include multidimensional poverty measurement and analysis, welfare economics, the capability approach, the measurement of freedoms and human development. From 2015–16, Sabina was Oliver T Carr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at George Washington University. Previously, she worked at the Global Equity Initiative at Harvard University, the Human Security Commission, and the World Bank’s Poverty and Culture Learning and Research Initiative. She holds a DPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford.

Picture of James E. FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

This event and seminar series was jointly organized with the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the UNDP Human Development Report Office.

China’s Outward Investments: State Capitalism or Capital Flight?

Friday, March 5, 2021
9:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.
via Webex

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. The conference took place as a virtual series. The conference was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

In this event, Professor Meg Rithmire discussed the nature of China’s outward investments. Deborah Brautigam (JHU-SAIS) and Stephen Kaplan (GWU) provided discussant remarks. IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh moderated the discussion.

Global observers are increasingly focused on China’s “state capitalism” and its implications for trading partners and host countries. Disentangling the strategic and commercial motives for Chinese firms abroad is not straightforward, and some of Chinese companies’ global efforts subvert, rather than execute, the Chinese state’s strategic goals. In this talk, based on research on the changing role of the state in China’s economy and the internationalization of Chinese capital over the last decade, I characterize China’s approach to globalization as a series of campaigns and experiments with constant adjustments and focus on the reach and limits of the Chinese party-state.

Meet the Presenter:

Picture of Meg RithmireMeg Rithmire is F. Warren MacFarlan associate professor in the Business, Government, and International Economy Unit. Professor Rithmire holds a PhD in Government from Harvard University, and her primary expertise is in the comparative political economy of development with a focus on China and Asia. Her first book, Land Bargains and Chinese Capitalism (Cambridge University Press, 2015), examines the role of land politics, urban governments, and local property rights regimes in the Chinese economic reforms. A new project, for which Meg conducted fieldwork in Asia 2016-2017, investigates the relationship between capital and the state and globalization in Asia. The project focuses on a comparison of China, Malaysia, and Indonesia from the early 1980s to the present. The research has two components; first, examining how governments attempt to discipline business and when those efforts succeed and, second, how business adapts to different methods of state control.

Meet the Discussants:

Stephen KaplanStephen B. Kaplan is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs. Professor Kaplan’s research and teaching interests focus on the frontiers of international and comparative political economy, where he specializes in the political economy of global finance and development, the rise of China in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin American politics.

 

 

Picture of Dr. brautigamA leading expert on China in Africa, Professor Brautigam is the author of Will Africa Feed China? (Oxford University Press, 2015), The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa (Oxford University Press, 2010; Chinese version published by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Press) and Chinese Aid and African Development: Exporting Green Revolution (St. Martin’s Press, 1998). She is also co-editor of Taxation and State-Building: Capacity and Consent(Cambridge University Press, 2008) as well as numerous articles published in academic journals and public affairs media. Professor Brautigam regularly advises international agencies and governments on China-Africa economic engagement.

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. Professor Shambaugh’s area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. His work includes analysis of the interaction of exchange rate regimes with monetary policy, capital flows, and trade flows as well as studies of international reserves holdings, country balance sheet exchange rate exposure, the cross-country impact of fiscal policy, the crisis in the euro area, and regional growth disparities.
He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings.

Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Shambaugh taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. Shambaugh received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

The Seeds of Ideology: Historical Immigration and Political Preferences in the United States, joint with Marco Tabellini (HBS)

Tuesday, February 23, 2021
12:30pm-2:00pm
via Webex

Paper: The Seeds of Ideology: Historical Immigration and Political Preferences in the United States, joint with Marco Tabellini (HBS)

Abstract: We test the relationship between historical immigration to the US and political ideology today. We hypothesize that European immigrants brought with them their preferences for the welfare state, and that this had a long-lasting effect on the political ideology of US born individuals. Our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we document that the historical presence of European immigrants is associated with a more liberal political ideology and with stronger preferences for redistribution among US born individuals today. Next, we show that this correlation is not explained by the characteristics of the countries where immigrants settled or other specific, socioeconomic immigrants’ traits. Finally, we provide evidence that our findings are driven by immigrants who had been more exposed to social-welfare reforms in their country of origin. Consistent with a mechanism of transmission from immigrants to natives, results are stronger when inter-group contact, measured with intermarriage and residential integration, was higher. Our findings also indicate that immigrants influenced American political ideology during one of the largest episodes of redistribution in US history – the New Deal – and that such effects persisted after the initial shock.

Meet the Presenter:

Paola Giuliano (UCLA)

India’s Federal Finances in COVID Times: The 15th Finance Commission

Wednesday March 10th, 2021
9:00 – 10:30am EST
via Webex

This was the eighth webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. It is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The eighth event on “India’s Federal Finances in COVID Times: The 15th Finance Commission” featured NK Singh, Chairman of India’s 15th Finance Commission, with Junaid Kamal Ahmad of the World Bank and Indira Rajaraman as discussants. The discussion was moderated by IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh.

The concept of the Finance Commission is embedded in the constitutional history of India. In a sense, it is even older than our Constitution. The Finance Commission has been described as the balancing wheel in the Constitution because it is designed to correct the structural and inherent imbalances between the resources and the expenditure of the Union and the States. The correction of this imbalance would constitute the basis for a fair vertical devolution.

The Fifteenth Finance Commission (FC-XV) was constituted by the President under Article 280 of the Constitution on 27 November 2017.The title of the report ‘Finance Commission in Covid Times’, submitted to the President for the period 2021-26, itself speaks of the onerous task it had in hand when the pandemic had significantly impacted the economy and shrunk the overall pie of resources. The Union government, in its action taken report on the commission’s report tabled in Parliament on 1st February 2021 accepted most of the recommendations.

About the Speaker:

photo of N.K. SinghN.K. Singh is a prominent Indian economist, academician, and policymaker. He is currently Chairman of the 15th Finance Commission. Prior to this position, he served as a member of Parliament in the Rajya Sabha, from 2008 to 2014. He also presided as Chairman of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Review Committee (FRBM) in 2016.

 

 

About the Discussants:

photo of Junaid Kamal AhmadJunaid Kamal Ahmad is the Country Director for the World Bank in India. He joined the World Bank’s Delhi office on 1 September 2016. Junaid, a Bangladeshi national, was formerly the Chief of Staff to World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. He joined the World Bank in 1991 as a Young Professional and worked on infrastructure development in Africa and Eastern Europe. He has since held several management positions, leading the Bank’s program in diverse regions including Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as in India and South Asia. He holds a PhD in Applied Economics from Stanford University, an MPA from Harvard University, and a BA in Economics from Brown University.

Indira Rajaraman holds a PhD in Economics from Cornell University. She was previously Professor of Economics at the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, and Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Delhi. She also served as a member of the 13th Finance Commission; and Member of the Central Board of Directors, Reserve Bank of India and of the Technical Advisory Committee for Monetary Policy. She has over 75 research publications in international and national journals and edited volumes and writes regularly in the financial press. She was a member of several official committees that shaped the process of financial and fiscal reform over the last three decades.

India’s Farm Laws

Friday, February 26, 2021
9:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.
via WebEx

This was the seventh webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. It is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The seventh event on “India’s Farm Laws” featured Kaushik Basu, Mahendra Dev, and Sudha Narayanan. The discussion was moderated by IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh.

In September 2020, the Indian Parliament passed 3 farm acts: The Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020; Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020; Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020. The laws allow farmers to sell outside regulated government markets, allow contractual farming and remove cereals, onion, potato and oil seed from the essential commodities list. The laws ostensibly designed to modernize the farm sector have generated huge protests in India, led to violence on India’s Republic Day, January 26, and continue unabated. Farm Associations and many experts consider them anti-farmer, whereas others think these reforms are necessary to move Indian agriculture forward. India’s farm sector provides only 15% of India’s GDP but provides livelihood for almost 50% of the population. The stakes are indeed high.

Our distinguished panel of experts debate the laws, place them in a broader context of India’s agricultural sector problems and suggest possible solutions.

About the speakers: 

Kaushik Basu is Professor of Economics and Carl Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University. He is currently the President of the International Economic Association and a nonresident senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution. He recently served as Chief Economist at the World Bank and before that was Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India. During his four years at the Bank he co-taught a popular course in the Elliott School with James Foster, entitled Introduction to Game Theory and Strategic Thinking, which every week brought 150 GW students and many visitors from the Bank and other neighboring institutions to the Harry Harding Auditorium of the Elliott School. One class per term was held in Preston Auditorium of the World Bank. As one student commented “Being taught by Prof. Basu was definitely an only at GW moment!” He has now returned to Cornell but fondly remembers his time in DC – especially his weekly chats with GW students and his daily strolls across the GW campus from home to work in the Bank, and back again.

Professor Basu has research interests that span across development economics, welfare economics, game theory, industrial organization, and law. As a professor at the Delhi School of Economics, he founded the Centre for Development Economics in 1992 and served as its first Executive Director. Kaushik Basu holds a B.A. in Economics from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University, and M.Sc. and PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics, and several honorary degrees, including doctorates from IIT Bombay, Fordham University New York, Bath University, England, and the University of Florence. His recent books are “An Economist in the Real World” and “The Republic of Beliefs.”

S. Mahendra Dev has been the Director and Vice Chancellor of the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR) in Mumbai, India, since 2010. Prior to this, he was Chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices for the Ministry of Agriculture of the Government of India, Director of the Centre for Economic and Social Studies in Hyderabad, and Acting Chairman of the National Statistical Commission of the Government of India. He is a recipient of the Malcolm Adiseshiah Award for outstanding work on development studies and has approximately 120 research publications in international and national journals in the areas of agricultural development, poverty, public policy, inequality, food security, nutrition, employment guarantee schemes, social security and farm and nonfarm employment. He has written or edited 20 books, including Inclusive Growth in India. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the International Food Policy Research Institute and was nominated to serve as Vice Chair of the Board beginning in 2018. He has been a consultant and adviser to many international organizations, including the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the International Labour Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, UNICEF, UNESCO, the UK Department for International Development, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. He received his PhD from the Delhi School of Economics and completed his postdoctoral research at Yale University.

Sudha Narayanan joined IFPRI’s South Asia Regional Office in December 2020 as a research fellow. Sudha’s research interests straddle agriculture, food and nutrition policy, and human development. She is particularly interested in survey-based research using micro econometric approaches to understand broader questions of agrarian change and state delivery systems for nutrition security. Her research focuses on contract farming, agrifood value chains, technology adoption in agriculture, public policies for food security and employment and agriculture-nutrition linkages.

She was previously an Associate Professor at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai. She obtained a PhD from Cornell University in 2011, specialising in agricultural economics. She earlier obtained M.A. and M.Phil. degrees in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics, India. Prior to studying for a doctoral degree, Sudha worked with the Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, the Right to Food Campaign in India and Cornell University, among others.

 

Governing Finance for Sustainable Prosperity

Wednesday, February 24, 2021
12:00 pm ET
via Zoom

A Joint Webinar of: 

IIEP Rethinking Capitalism and Democracy Series

Thunderbird Finance and Sustainability Series

Finance affects all aspects of our lives, from our economies to social cohesion to the ecological systems that we depend on for our survival. As a result, the implications of how we govern finance are truly fundamental. In the last few years, central banks and financial supervisors have been re assessing the economic and social landscape they face, as well as their broader role in achieving sustainable prosperity. Their responses to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic have increased the urgency for this review of their objectives, instruments, and institutional arrangements. This webinar examines the opportunities and challenges for financial governance, explores emerging new practices among central banks and financial supervisors, and outlines pathways for greater alignment of the governance of finance with the broader sustainability agenda.

Meet the Speakers:

Picture of Alexander BarkawiAlexander Barkawi is founder and director of the Council on Economic Policies (CEP) – an economic policy think tank for sustainability focused on fiscal, monetary and trade policy. Prior to creating and building CEP, he was the managing director of SAM Indexes and thus responsible for developing the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices into a key reference point for sustainable investing. Alex is a graduate in economics of the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, where he also earned his doctoral degree. He grew up in Germany and Egypt and today lives in Zurich, Switzerland.

 

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh’s area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. His work includes analysis of the interaction of exchange rate regimes with monetary policy, capital flows, and trade flows as well as studies of international reserves holdings, country balance sheet exchange rate exposure, the cross- the country impact of fiscal policy, the crisis in the euro area, and regional growth disparities. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non- Resident Senior Fellow In Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Shambaugh taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the I MF. Shambaugh received his Ph. D. in economics from the University of California at Berkel ey, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Picture of Ann FloriniAnn Florini is the Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, D.C. campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University founding director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations including government, civil society, and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, and his current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

Picture of James E. Foster James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

Analysing Individual Deprivations alongside Household Poverty: Possibilities for Gendered, Intrahousehold, and Multidimensional Analyses

Monday, February 22, 2021
10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
via Webex

 

Most poverty measures identify a household as poor or non-poor based on the achievements of all its members. Using the household as the unit of identification enables a poverty measure to draw on information from persons of different ages, genders, and life situations, but loses individual information by summarising it at the level of the household. As a consequence, gendered and intrahousehold inequalities are not illuminated even when data for them exist. However individual indicators or indices lose information regarding the achievements of other household members, and face challenges in finding a structure by which to compare all genders and ages. This paper augments a household multidimensional poverty index (MPI) by applying individual-level analyses to individual indicators in that MPI, and analysing individual deprivations alongside the matrix of deprivations underlying an MPI. Here we focus on individually undernourished and out of school children. Analyses show what proportion of deprived (and poor) children i) live in multidimensionally poor households; ii) are girls vs boys; iii) live in households in which other eligible children are not deprived in that indicator. We also observe iv) what additional deprivations children experience besides the focal deprivation, and v) what proportion of people live in households where children of different ages experience different age-specific deprivations concurrently. Finally using data on completed years of schooling for all adults and children vi) we identify ‘pioneer children’, to illustrate the possibility of combining information on the deprivation or attainment status of more than one household members. This paper provides a prototype methodology that can be incorporated into standard analyses of household poverty measures that include individual indicators in order to shine a light jointly on individual and household poverty. We illustrate each aspect of the methodology with analyses of the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) for seven countries in South Asia.

About the Presenter:

Rizwan Ul Haq is a Research Associate at OPHI. He is also Assistant Professor of Development Studies at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics where he is Head of the Department of Development Studies. He has more than 18 years of experience in population and development mainly focusing on poverty, ageing and health. He has worked in the United Nations Development Programme in the preparation of National Human Development Report for Pakistan on Youth.

 

About the Discussants:

Cheryl Doss is a development economist whose research focuses on issues related to assets, agriculture and gender with a regional focus on sub-Saharan Africa. Among her research projects, she co-leads the Gender Asset Gap Project, a large-scale effort to collect data and measure individual asset and wealth holdings for men and women in Ecuador, Ghana, and Karnataka, India. This research examines best practices for collecting individual data on assets and also quantifies women’s ownership of and control over productive assets. Currently, much of her work focuses on how to understand both joint and individual ownership and decision-making within rural households. Cheryl Doss works with a range of international organizations on issues including best approaches for collecting sex-disaggregated data, gender and agriculture, intrahousehold resource allocation, and women’s asset ownership. Currently, she is the gender advisor for the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). In recent years, she has also worked with UN Women, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Bank, DFID, the Africa Development Bank, and the UN Foundation on issues of women’s asset ownership. She has published widely in academic journals in economics, agricultural economics, and development studies.

Jeni Klugman is Managing Director at the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security and Senior Adviser at the Stanford University Center for Gender Equality. Dr Klugman’s previous positions include fellow at the Kennedy School of Government’s Women in Public Policy Program at Harvard University, Director of Gender and Development at the World Bank, and director and lead author of three global Human Development Reports published by the UNDP. She has published over a dozen books and major global reports, and (co)authored over 70 articles in peer reviewed journals. She regularly participates in major global gender policy initiatives, including the Lancet Series on Gender Equality; the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s strategy on women’s economic empowerment; and the Council on Foreign Relations’ Advisory Committee on economic inclusion and global growth. She is currently a member of The Lancet Global Commission on Gender and Health; advising VicHealth, Australia to bring behavioral insights to advance gender equality; UN Women, the World Bank and partners on justice for women; the World Bank on the gender dimensions of forced displacement; and working with the UN Development Program on human mobility. Jeni holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Australian National University and postgraduate degrees in both Law and Development Economics from the University of Oxford where she was a Rhodes Scholar. She was included in the Apolitical Inaugural List of the World’s 100 Most Influential People in Gender Policy in 2018 and in 2019.

These seminars are organized jointly with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the UNDP Human Development Report Office. They will he hosted by IIEP Co-Director James Foster.

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Language Training and Refugees’ Integration

Tuesday, February 16, 2021
12:30pm – 2:00pm
via WebEx

The Trade & Development Seminar series highlights theoretical and/or empirical research on international and domestic trade, as well as the economic aspects of development.

Paper: “LANGUAGE TRAINING AND REFUGEES’ INTEGRATION”

Abstract: In this paper we evaluate the effects of a reform enacted in Denmark, which significantly increased language training for those who were recognized as refugees on or after January 1, 1999. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design we find a significant and permanent positive effect on earnings of the treated refugees. This effect accrued over time, together with an increase in schooling and in the probability of working in a communication-intensive job. We also find evidence of higher completion rates of lower secondary school and lower probability of juvenile crime for male children whose parents were both treated by the reform.

About the speaker: 

Giovanni Peri is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts.  He is Editor of the “Journal of the European Economic Association” and in the Editorial Board of several Academic Journals in Economics.  He is the Founder and Director of the UC Davis Global Migration Center an interdisciplinary  research group focusing  on international migrations.

His Research focuses on the impact of international migrations on labor markets and productivity of the receiving countries and on the determinants of international migrations. He has published in several academic journals including, among many others,  the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies, The Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, the Journal of European Economic Association, the Journal of International Economics and the Journal of Labor Economics.

His research has been featured in popular Blogs and in media outlets including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, National Public Radio, the Economist Magazine. He has received several grants  for the study of international migrations from foundations and international organizations, including the National Science Foundation, the Russel Sage Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the World Bank, and the Volkswagen Foundation.

How the Pandemic Exposed the Incomplete Gender Revolution: Work, Family, and Public Policy

Monday, February 15th 2021
2:00pm – 3:30pm
WebEx

Over the past 70 years gender roles in the home and the workplace changed. Women have become more equal contributors in the labor market and men more equal contributors in the home. These changes were partially driven by the economic forces of technological change and increased international trade. As we entered 2020, women held the majority of jobs in the labor market and the vast majority of children were being raised in homes in which all parents worked. The pandemic disrupted our modern family and work lives, bringing kids out of childcare and home, and leaving many parents unemployed, while others are working at home. The result has been an unprecedented drop in labor force participation and a scaling back of hours of work by parents, particularly among women. In this talk, the economic forces that pushed gender equality, the limitations to fully realizing gender equality, and the set-back of women’s equality caused by the pandemic were discussed.

About the Speakers: 

Betsey Stevenson is a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. She is also a faculty research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting associate professor of economics at the  University of Sydney, a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a fellow of the Ifo Institute for  Economic Research in Munich, and serves on the executive committee of the American Economic Association. She  served as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2015 where she advised President Obama on  social policy, labor market, and trade issues. She served as the chief economist of the U.S. Department of Labor from  2010 to 2011, advising the Secretary of Labor on labor policy and participating as the secretary’s deputy to the White House economic team. She has held previous positions at Princeton University and at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

Dr. Stevenson is a labor economist who has published widely in leading economics journals about the labor market and the impact of public policies on outcomes both in the labor market and for families as they adjust to changing labor market opportunities. Her research explores women’s labor market experiences, the economic forces shaping the modern family, and how these labor market experiences and economic forces on the family influence each other. She is a columnist for Bloomberg View, and her analysis of economic data and the economy are frequently covered in both print and television media.

Dr Stevenson earned a BA in economics and mathematics from Wellesley College and an MA and PhD in economics from Harvard University.

Picture of Madeline QuillacqMadeline de Quillacq is a current senior at the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, pursuing a Bachelor of Science in Economics and International Affairs, with a concentration in International Economics. She is president of GW Women in Economics, an intern at the Reshoring Institute, and has been a research assistant at the Institute for International Economic Policy for almost two years. In addition, she served as an undergraduate teacher’s assistant for the college course “Principles of Mathematics for Economics” and attended Sciences Po in Paris, France during the 2019-2020 academic year. Madeline is a tri-citizen (US, UK, France) and fluent in French.

About the Discussants: 

Dr. Mary Ellsberg is the Executive Director and Founding Director of the Global Women’s Institute at the George  Washington University.  Dr. Ellsberg has more than 30 years of experience in international research and programs on  gender and development. Before joining the university in August 2012, Dr. Ellsberg served as Vice President for Research and Programs at the International Center for Research on Women. Dr. Ellsberg’s deep connection to global   gender issues stems not only from her academic work, but also from living in Nicaragua for nearly 20 years, leading   public health and women’s rights advocacy. She was a member of the core research team of the World Health   Organization’s Multi-Country Study on Domestic Violence and Women’s Heath, and she has authored more than 40 books and articles on violence against women and girls. Dr. Ellsberg earned a doctorate in epidemiology and public health from Umea University in Sweden and a bachelor’s degree in Latin American studies from Yale University.

Picture of Madeline QuillacqEiko Strader is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Women’s, Gender & Sexuality Studies, and Sociology. Her research and teaching focus on social inequalities by gender, race/ethnicity, sexuality, citizenship, and criminal records. Much of her work tries to understand how and under what conditions these social categories become relevant in predicting life chances across different policy contexts. She has published related works in Social Forces, Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, International Migration Review, Journal of International Affairs, and other outlets.

 

This event was co-sponsored with GW Women in Economics.

GW Women in Economics seeks to increase women’s representation and support women’s participation in economics, at GWU and in the broader profession. The organization seeks to address the demonstrated lack of representation of women in the field of economics, beginning at the pipeline by fostering interest among students, increase visibility of women pursuing economic degrees, providing professional networking opportunities that promote the advancement of women in the professions, and to create a forum in which issues of common interest can be explored.

Reshaping Global Trade: The Immediate and Long-Run Effects of Bank Failures

Wednesday, February 24, 2021
2:30 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the second virtual event of the Macro-International Seminar of Spring 2021. The Macro-International seminar hosts speakers from all over the world that present recent and cutting edge research on different topics in macroeconomics, open economy macroeconomics and international finance. The seminar series is co-organized by Prof. Tomás Williams and Prof. Graciela Kaminsky. On Wednesday, February 10, 2021, Chenzi Xu of Stanford Graduate School of Business presented “Reshaping Global Trade: The Immediate and Long-Run Effects of Bank Failures.”

Chenzi Xu studies the first modern global banking crisis that began in London in 1866 and provides causal evidence that financial sector disruptions can reshape international trade patterns for decades. Using newly collected archival loan records that link banks to their operations abroad, Xu estimates that countries exposed to banks whose headquarters in London failed exported 17% less on average to each destination until 1905. Exporters trading with destinations for the first time, facing more competition in goods markets, and with little access to alternative forms of credit experienced more persistent losses, consistent with hysteresis arising from high sunk costs of entry into exporting.

About the Speaker:

Chenzi Xu is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. Her research is focused on the intersection of finance, international trade, and economic history. Xu has received an AB and PhD in Economics at Harvard University as well as a MPhil in Economic and Social History from the University of Cambridge. Through her study, she has received awards and honors such as the 2019 “AQR Top Finance Graduate Award” and the 2018 “Economic History Society New Researcher Prize.”

 

 

This event was co-sponsored with GW Department of Economics. 

Schooling in India’s New Education Policy and Impact of COVID on Learning Outcomes

Wednesday February 10th, 2021
9:30 AM-11:00AM EST
via WebEx

We are pleased to share with you the sixth webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The sixth event, “Schooling in India’s New Education Policy and Impact of COVID on Learning Outcomes” featured Karthik Muralidharan and Rukmini Banerji. The discussion was moderated by Professor James Foster, with an introduction by Dr. Ajay Chhibber.”

Improving the quality of education is a critical investment for enabling “inclusive growth” in India. It matters both for growth at the aggregate level, and for enabling citizens to broadly participate in this growth process at the individual level.  India’s National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 is the first major overhaul of education policy in nearly 35 years.  Karthik discussed the main learnings from two decades of research on school education in India and present key principles for the way ahead. 

Rukmini provided her perspective on these issues based on her work on learning outcomes at Pratham since 2005 and will also present findings from the 2020 Annual Survey of Education Results (ASER) the first ever phone based ASER survey. Conducted in September 2020, the sixth month of national school closures, the survey explores provision of and access to distance education mechanisms, materials and activities for children in rural India, and the ways in which children and families are engaging with these remote learning alternatives from their homes.

About the Speakers:

rukmini banerjiDr. Rukmini Banerji is the CEO of Pratham Education Foundation. Trained as an economist, Dr. Banerji completed her B.A. at St. Stephen’s College and attended the Delhi School of Economics (DSE). She was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University and earned her Ph.D. at the University of Chicago.

Dr. Banerji worked as a programme officer at the Spencer Foundation in Chicago for several years before returning to India in 1996 to join Pratham as part of the leadership team. There, she led the organisation’s research and assessment efforts, which have included the internationally acknowledged Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) since 2005, and served as director of the ASER Centre in New Delhi for 10 years.

In 2008, she was the inaugural recipient of the Maulana Abul Kalam Shiksha Puraskar Award conferred by the Government of Bihar, India. Over the years, she has represented Pratham and ASER Centre in various national and international forums and is a member of committees both in India and abroad. She writes frequently on education in India and enjoys creating books and stories for children.

Karthik Muralidharan is the Tata Chancellor’s Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD). He is a Research Associate of the NBER, and on the Board of Directors of the Poverty Action Lab at MIT where he is co-chair of the education research program. His research spans development, public, and labor economics with a focus on improving the quality of public expenditure – especially in the social sector.

Born and raised in India, Prof. Muralidharan earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Harvard University (summa cum laude), an M.Phil. in economics from Cambridge University (ranked first), and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.

 

About the Moderator: 

Picture of James E. Foster James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

 

Multidimensional Poverty Indices and Children. Four Measurement Strategies

Monday February 8th, 2021

10:00 AM-11:30AM EST

View Jakob Dirksen and Sabina Alkire’s slides here (PDF)

In order to break intergenerational cycles of poverty and sustainably alleviate deprivations, explicit focus on, and prioritisation of, disadvantaged children is imperative. This all the more so given that children are evidently both among the most vulnerable and oftentimes among the poorest members of societies around the world. In order to effectively focus policy efforts on the alleviation of children’s deprivations and to achieve sustainable poverty eradication, multidimensional measures that can accurately capture the many deprivations experienced by children are thus key. Recognising that child poverty is characterised by age-specific deprivations different from deprivations adults or children of other age groups experience, a rich and growing literature on child multidimensional poverty measurement has emerged. However, experience has shown that, for pro-poor(est) policy-making, such efforts have often resulted in disjoint measurement exercises producing separate statistics of child versus all-population multidimensional poverty. Such disjoint measures have been difficult to communicate and interpret alongside one another – causing confusion that can be disadvantageous in particular for those whose already disadvantaged circumstances they are meant to capture and help improve. Responding to this dilemma, in this presentation we offer four synergetic measurement strategies. These can be used to achieve clear, policy-prescriptive and actionable population-level statistics of multidimensional poverty that focus attention explicitly and directly on children’s deprivations, guiding the prioritisation of those least well-off and at risk of being left behind

 

About the Presenter:

pic of Jakob DirksenJakob Dirksen is part of OPHI’s Research and Outreach teams. He is also a Lecturer at Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Germany. He has held research positions at the Blavatnik School of Government and Mansfield College at the University of Oxford, and has worked in diplomacy for the German Foreign Office. Jakob studied Liberal Arts and Sciences, Social Sciences, and Philosophy in Germany and Spain. His research interests are the theory and measurement of well-being, poverty and inequalities; sustainable development; and the capability approach.

 

About the Discussants:

photo of ana vazAna Vaz is the Director of Research and Technical Validation at SOPHIA Oxford, where she is developing tools for companies to measure multidimensional poverty among their employees and exploring how multidimensional poverty data might support social investment. Before joining SOPHIA Oxford, Ana was a Senior Research Officer at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), University of Oxford. Ana’s work at OPHI focused on the measurement of multidimensional poverty and women’s empowerment. She holds a DPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford, and she was previously on the faculty at the Catholic University of Portugal and a consultant at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

About the Moderator:

Picture of James E. FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

These seminars are organized jointly with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the UNDP Human Development Report Office. They will he hosted by IIEP Co-Director James Foster.

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Moderate internationally comparable MPI

Monday February 1st, 2021

10:00 AM-11:30AM EST

Many of the current poverty measures used to track progress towards the Agenda 2030 fall short of its ambition to “end poverty in all its forms, everywhere”. This talk introduces a new measure of “moderate multidimensional poverty” that complements the current measures of acute poverty, in line with the ambitions outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The new trial index, here called Moderate MPI (MMPI), builds on the basic capabilities included in the global Multidimensional Poverty Index but adjusts the indicators to reflect a meaningful change in the level of ambition anchored in the SDGs. MMPI is intended to provide a complementary measure of poverty globally, but will be most meaningful for middle-income countries and regions where acute poverty is already low and possibly no longer reflects a valid level of ambition for national development.

The main value-added of the new trial MMPI is that it: i) is globally comparable across countries at all income levels, ii) aligns the indicators with the higher standards for development as defined in the Agenda 2030, and iii) allows us to study some aspects of intrahousehold deprivation. The trial MMPI is illustrated empirically using nationally representative household surveys from Thailand, Iraq, Tanzania, Serbia, Guatemala, and Bangladesh. While data constrains remain, the results demonstrate that the MMPI is feasible, has desirable properties as a global poverty index, and allows to unearth thus far hidden aspects in poverty measurement, such as intrahousehold deprivations in education. The talk concluded by discussing the steps needed towards a wider policy relevant use of the index that would support the global development community to find sustainable pathways out of poverty

About the Presenter:

Elina Scheja SidaElina Scheja is currently working as a Lead Economist at the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), where her tasks include economic analysis, multidimensional poverty analytics, and advisory support. Her professional interest focus on evidence of what works for poverty reduction, how poverty can be measured in multiple dimensions, and how to promote sustainable and inclusive economic development that benefit people living in poverty. Prior to her current position, Ms Scheja was based in Rwanda managing Sida’s project portfolio for productive employment, analysing economic development, and engaging in dialogue with partners for sustainable poverty reduction. Ms Scheja has long experience in development cooperation in different roles and organisations, such as the World Bank where she worked with inclusive growth, development effectiveness, and migration. Ms Scheja holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Sussex, Masters in Economics from Helsinki School of Economics, and Masters in Development Studies from Helsinki University, and has research experience from several universities and research institutions

 

About the Discussant:

Iván González de AlbaIván González de Alba is a Country Economist at UNDP’s Country Office in Cambodia. Until August 2020, he was the Regional Policy Advisor in Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Development at UNDP’s Regional Hub for Latin America and the Caribbean. Economist and holds a Masters in Public Policy from ITAM (Mexico) as well as a Masters in Economics and a DPhil in Development Studies from the University of Oxford, England. Former OPHI collaborator, also worked for the Mexican government holding different positions at the ministries of tourism, social development and urban development.  Social protection in Africa and the regional study on environmental variables into MPIs are among his most recent publications.

Picture of Khalid

Khalid Abu-Ismail is a Senior Economist at UN-ESCWA, ERF Policy Affiliate and formerly UNDP Policy Adviser and Faculty Member of the Economics Department of the Lebanese American University.

Over 50 research papers and UN publications with a focus on poverty, inequality and human development in Arab countries, including: “Arab Vision 2030 Report” (ESCWA, 2015), “Arab Middle Class” (ESCWA, 2014), “Rethinking Economic Growth” (ILO and UNDP, 2012), “Arab Multi-Dimensional Poverty Report” (LAS, OPHI, UNICEF and ESCWA, 2017), “Rethinking Inequality in Arab Countries” (ESCWA and ERF, 2019) and lead author of the forthcoming ESCWA report on “Rethinking Human Development”. He has a D. Phil. in Development Economics from the New School for Social Research in New York.

 

About the Moderator:

Picture of James E. FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

 

These seminars are organized jointly with the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and the UNDP Human Development Report Office. They will be hosted by IIEP Co-Director James Foster.

ophi logo

Taking Stock of Climate Change: Earth, Air, Fire and Water

Wednesday, January 27th, 2021
12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m. EST
WebEx

The climate of planet Earth depends on the energy balance between incoming radiation from the Sun and re-radiation from the planet. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, like water vapor and carbon dioxide, help regulate whether the planet is a “snowball,” as warm as the Eocene some 55 million years ago, or something in between like our world today. Natural forces, including plate tectonics and volcanism, drove previous climatic upheavals, but today the main driver is humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels. Although life has survived previous climate upheavals, thriving in quite different global temperatures, huge numbers of species went extinct in the transitions. This webinar showed how humanity is altering the climate with impacts on the Earth’s limited available land, atmosphere, and water resources. The webinar used the ancient frames of Earth, Air, Fire and Water as ‘essential ingredients’ of life to explore what is happening, the dangers of precipitating an anthropogenic mass extinction, and actions humanity could take to avoid disaster.

About the Speaker: 

photo of David F. HendrySir David F. Hendry is Co-director of Climate Econometrics and Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford University. He was previously Professor of Economics at Oxford, and of Econometrics at LSE. He has held visiting appointments at the Cowles Foundation, Yale University, University of California at Berkeley and San Diego, Duke University, as well as being Leverhulme Personal Research Professor and ESRC Professorial Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, where he was Chairman of the Economics Department from 2001—2007. 

He was Knighted in 2009; is an Honorary Vice-President and past President, Royal Economic Society; Fellow, British Academy, Royal Society of Edinburgh, Econometric Society, Academy of Social Sciences, Journal of Econometrics and Econometric Reviews; Founding Fellow, International Association for Applied Econometrics and Honorary Fellow, International Institute of Forecasters; and Foreign Honorary Member, American Economic Association and American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has received eight Honorary Doctorates, a Lifetime Achievement Award from the ESRC, and the Guy Medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society. He founded the Econometrics Journal and has been Econometrics Editor of the Review of Economic Studies and the Economic Journal.

His research interests span econometric methods, theory, modeling, and history; computing; macro-econometrics; climate econometrics; empirical economics; and forecasting. He has published more than 200 papers and 25 books.

Jennifer L. Castle Dr Jennifer L. Castle is an Official Fellow in Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford, and an Associate Member of Climate Econometrics, Oxford University. She previously held a British Academy postdoctoral research fellowship at Nuffield College, Oxford.

Her research interests lie in the fields of model selection and forecasting, and with David F. Hendry she has published 2 books including Modelling our Changing World (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019) and Forecasting: An Essential Introduction (Yale University Press, 2019, also with Michael P. Clements); a monograph; Climate Econometrics: An Overview (2020), and more than 30 articles. She has 1300+ citations and an h-index of 20, including in Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Time Series, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Forecasting, Econometrics, Econometric Reviews, International Journal of Forecasting, & National Institute Economic Review.

Picture of Ann FloriniAnn Florini is the Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, D.C. campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University founding director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations including government, civil society, and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

Picture of James E. FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

Picture of Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, and his current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture, and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

This event was Cosponsored by ASU/Thunderbird School

Changes over Time in the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index and Other Measures: Towards National Poverty Reports

Monday January 25th, 2021

10:00 AM-11:30AM EST

Paper Description:

This paper provides a highly visual, intuitive yet systematic assessment of trends in the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) over time across 80 countries and five billion people in developing regions. The analysis draws on data from 2000-2019, to document how the MPI, incidence and intensity of poverty has changed in these countries, and what indicators drove that change. Such a systematic review is an essential step towards clarifying the Sustainable Development Goal’s (SDGs) Target 1.2 to halve the proportion of people who are poor in many dimensions, and furthers the call for consistent, high quality, timely, and policy-relevant data on the interlinked deprivations that people living in multidimensional poverty endure.

About the Presenter:

Sabina Alkire directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI). She is the Associate Professor of Development Studies in the Oxford Department of International Development at the University of Oxford. Her research interests include multidimensional poverty measurement and analysis, welfare economics, the capability approach, the measurement of freedoms and human development. From 2015–16, Sabina was Oliver T Carr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at George Washington University. Previously, she worked at the Global Equity Initiative at Harvard University, the Human Security Commission, and the World Bank’s Poverty and Culture Learning and Research Initiative. She holds a DPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford.

About the Discussants:

pic of Jaya Krishnakumar Jaya Krishnakumar is a full professor of Econometrics at the University of Geneva, Switzerland. She is also a Visiting Professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore and Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India. Her research interests include panel data econometrics, multivariate models with latent variables and quantitative methods for multi-dimensional well-being analysis. She has publications in leading international econometrics/economics journals for example in Econometric Theory, Journal of Econometrics, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Public Economics, European Economic Review, Health Economics, and World Development. She has also edited and contributed chapters in books in Econometrics and on the Capability Approach. She is a member of the Advisory Panel for the Human Development Reports of the UNDP, and a Fellow of the Human Development and Capabilities Association. She has also been a member of the academic experts panel for World Bank’s Women, Business and The Law Index 2019, as well as an Advisor for the SDG Action Manager launched by B-Lab along with the UN Global Compact in early 2020.

pic of José ManuelJosé Manuel is a Research Associate at OPHI, and co-authored Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis published by the Oxford University Press. He has over 20 years of research and policy experience in international development, human development, poverty and inequality analysis, horizon scanning and strategic foresight, while working for civil society organizations, governments, and academia.

He has held various research and advisory roles for international agencies (including the World Bank, UNDP, UNICEF, ECLAC, Asian Development Bank), international NGOs (Save the Children, Care, Oxfam and World Vision) and national governments (Colombia, Venezuela, Egypt, Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, Bhutan and Malaysia).

He has been a lecturer and taught various undergraduate and postgraduate courses in the University of Oxford, University of Sussex and University College of London.

About the Moderator: 

Picture of James E. Foster James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

Link to the Presentation

Multidimensional Poverty in the U.S.

Friday, December 11th, 2020
11:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST
WebEx

This event was the tenth webinar of the “Facing Inequality” series, hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy. This virtual series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe – especially those revealed by the current COVID-19 pandemic. It brings together historians, economists, sociologists, political scientists, and epidemiologists, within the academy and without, to present work and discuss ideas that can facilitate new interdisciplinary approaches to the problem of inequality. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Facing Inequality” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Faculty Affiliate Trevor Jackson, Assistant Professor of History. The series is co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series, co-organized by Prof. Jackson from the Department of History and Prof. Bryan Stuart from the Department of Economics.

There is no doubt that poverty and wellbeing are multidimensional concepts that go well beyond monetary values. The UN, the World Bank, and dozens of countries around the world have developed their own multidimensional measures of poverty and deprivation to reflect this reality, guide policy, and monitor progress. Could this transformative approach be relevant for the US, whose official monetary poverty measure was developed over 50 years ago? This webinar brought key researchers together to answer this question with the help of the latest research on multidimensional poverty in the US and Europe.

In this event Brian Glassman began with a discussion of his new paper, “The Census Multidimensional Deprivation Index: Revised and Updated,” which analyzes the Multidimensional Deprivation Index, released by the Census Bureau. Shatakshee Dhongde discussed her new paper, “Decade-Long View of Multidimensional Poverty in the United States,” which provides a comprehensive analysis of trends in multidimensional poverty in the United States. Lastly, Sabina Alkire presented her new paper “Chronic Multidimensional Poverty in Europe,” which develops contrasting measures for advanced economies, and applies them to the case of Europe.

This event was co-sponsored by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative and the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU.

About the Speakers: 

Picture of Brian GlassmanBrian Glassman is an Economist in the Poverty Statistics Branch of the Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division at the U.S. Census Bureau. Dr. Glassman has a Ph.D. in Economics from Temple University and a Masters in Public Policy from the College of William and Mary, and his areas of interest include urban economics, labor economics, and poverty and income inequality.

 

 

Picture of Shatakshee DhongdeShatakshee Dhongde is an Associate Professor of Economics and a Provost Teaching-Learning Fellow at Georgia Tech. She obtained her Ph.D. from the University of California, Riverside. She is also a research affiliate with the Institute of Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Her research has focused on analyzing economic growth, inequality, poverty and multidimensional deprivation. She was awarded the Nancy and Richard Ruggles Prize for young researchers by the International Association of Review of Income and Wealth (IARIW). Her work has been published in several leading economics journals. Her research on measuring deprivation in the U.S. has been highlighted in national media, including NPR. She is the recipient of multiple teaching awards at Georgia Tech.

Picture of Sabina AlkireSabina Alkire directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI). She is the Associate Professor of Development Studies in the Oxford Department of International Development at the University of Oxford. Her research interests include multidimensional poverty measurement and analysis, welfare economics, the capability approach, the measurement of freedoms and human development. From 2015–16, Sabina was Oliver T Carr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at George Washington University. Previously, she worked at the Global Equity Initiative at Harvard University, the Human Security Commission, and the World Bank’s Poverty and Culture Learning and Research Initiative. She holds a DPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford.

About the Discussants: 

Picture of James E. FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

 
Picture of Sophie MitraSophie Mitra is a professor of economics and founding director of the Research Consortium on Disability at Fordham University in New York City. She has studied the economic impact of disability and mental illness, the effects of social protection programs, multidimensional poverty, the association between disability and poverty, and the definition of disability. Sophie Mitra has held visiting positions at Columbia University and the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (School of Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences). She received her doctorate in economics from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.
 
 
About the Moderator: 
Picture of Marianne BitlerMarianne Bitler has a BS in Mathematics from Penn State and a PhD in economics from MIT. She is a professor in the UC Davis Department of Economic and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Professor Bitler’s research focuses on the effects of government safety net programs on disadvantaged groups, economic demography, health economics, public economics, and the economics of education, with a particular focus on food assistance programs. Before coming to UC Davis, she was a professor of economics at UC Irvine. She recently served as the chair of a National Academy of Sciences CNSTAT Panel on Improving Consumer Data for Food and Nutrition Policy Research for the Economic Research Service, USDA and she is a co-editor of the American Journal of Health Economics
 
About our Partners – OPHI
 
The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) is an economic research and policy centre within the Oxford Department of International Development at the University of Oxford. Established in 2007, the centre is led by Sabina Alkire. OPHI aims to build and advance a more systematic methodological and economic framework for reducing multidimensional poverty, grounded in people’s experiences and values. OPHI works towards this through theoretical and applied research on multidimensional poverty, teaching and training activities, and supporting countries designing official national poverty statistics. OPHI’s work is grounded in Amartya Sen’s capability approach, and seeks to advance this approach by creating rigorous yet practical tools that inform policies to reduce poverty.

Each year, with the United Nations Development Programme, OPHI publishes the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), an international measure of acute multidimensional poverty covering over 100 developing countries. As the secretariat of a South-South multidimensional poverty peer network of policy actors and statisticians, OPHI organises side-events at the UN General Assembly and Statistics Commission, and publishes a magazineDimensions featuring policy applications. OPHI also publishes a Working Paper series, an informal Research in Progress series, a Policy and Research Briefings series, a global MPI Methodological Notes series. OPHI and MPPN websites also feature national MPI reports, some special publications such as poverty reports co-authored by OPHI, and a newsletter.

“Saving Indian Capitalism from its Capitalists” featuring Pranab Bardhan

Wednesday, December 9th, 2020

11 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST

This was the fourth webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. It is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The fourth event, “Saving Indian Capitalism from Its Capitalists” featured Pranab Bardhan, Professor of Economics at University of California-Berkeley, with Jean Dreze of Ranchi University and Michael Walton of the Harvard Kennedy School as discussants. The discussion was moderated by Professor James Foster, with an introduction by Dr. Ajay Chhibber. 

There are often conflicts in the interests of capital, between the individual capitalist and the capitalist class as a whole, or between the short-term and long-term interests of capital. In this talk Prof. Bardhan will give examples of this from the Indian debates on labor reform, health policy, policy relating to vocational education, and from the adverse effects of the growing concentration of capital and wealth distribution.

The Indian Government recently enacted a major labor reform that has been widely acclaimed in the business press and by many reform-mongering economists. The attempt to bring some order to the tangled mess that the old labor laws were in is welcome, as is more ‘flexibility’ in labor employment, but as part of a package deal with a reasonable scheme of unemployment benefits for workers; instead the new laws make the already insecure life of workers even more insecure. Capitalists envisioning a longer horizon should be aware that an insecure, disgruntled and unstable labor force is a sure bet for low productivity. Health Policy and Vocational Education also show cases where a more prudent corporate sector would have encouraged serious alternatives; this will be elucidated in the talk.

More broadly, in India the data suggest that corporate concentration and inequality in wealth distribution are galloping, and this is bound to have a negative effect on overall productivity and innovations, which is against the  long-term interests of capitalism, even though it may give a boost to short-term earnings of individual capitalists. Compared to some other capitalist countries, India is more of a crony oligarchy that is cozy with the current regime, which is not conducive to a healthy development of capitalism in India. Nor is the rise in inequality that exacerbates demand deficiency, or the brazen dilution of environmental regulations that poisons and uproots community life.

About the Speakers: 

pranabPranab Bardhan is Professor of Graduate School at the Department of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

He was educated at Presidency College, Kolkata and Cambridge University, England. He had been at the faculty of MIT, Indian Statistical Institute and Delhi School of Economics before joining Berkeley. He has been Visiting Professor/Fellow at Trinity College, Cambridge, St. Catherine’s College, Oxford, and London School of Economics. He held the Distinguished Fulbright Siena Chair at the University of Siena, Italy in 2008-9. He was the BP Centennial Professor at London School of Economics for 2010 and 2011. He got the Guggenheim Fellowship in 1982.

He has done theoretical and field studies research on rural institutions in poor countries, on political economy of development policies, and on international trade. A part of his work is in the interdisciplinary area of economics, political science, and social anthropology. He was Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics for 1985-2003. He was the co-chair of the MacArthur Foundation-funded Network on the Effects of Inequality on Economic Performance for 1996-2007.

He is the author of 16 books and editor of 14 other books, and author of more than 150 journal articles including in leading Economics journals (like American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, Economic Journal, American Economic Journal, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Oxford Economic Papers, etc.).

He has also contributed essays to popular outlets like New York Times, Scientific American, Financial Times, Die Zeit, Boston Review, Los Angeles Review of Books, Project Syndicate, Yale Global Online, Times of India, Economic Times, Business Standard, Bloomberg Quint, Hindustan Times, Ideas for India, Economic and Political Weekly, Indian Express, Ananda Bazar Patrika (in Bengali), etc. From 2018 he has started writing a periodic column for a New York-based blog, 3 Quarks Daily.

 

Picture of Jean DrezeJean Dreze studied Mathematical Economics at the University of Essex and did his Ph.D. at the Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi. He has taught at the London School of Economics and the Delhi School of Economics, and is currently Visiting Professor at Ranchi University as well as Honorary Professor at the Delhi School of Economics. He has made wide-ranging contributions to development economics and public policy, with special reference to India. His research interests include rural development, social inequality, elementary education, child nutrition, health care and food security. Jean Drèze is co-author (with Amartya Sen) of Hunger and Public Action (Oxford University Press, 1989) and An Uncertain Glory: India and Its Contradictions (Penguin, 2013)”, and also one of the co-authors of the Public Report on Basic Education in India, also known as “PROBE Report”.

 

michael_waltonMichael Walton is Senior Lecturer in Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he has taught since 2004 and is a visiting fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, Delhi.  He also works with the non-profit IMAGO Global Grassroots whose goal is to take established grassroots organizations to the next level, working especially in India, Latin America and the United States.  In addition to core teaching in HKS’ MPA in International Development, he leads the signature on-line course on Policy Design and Delivery.  Michael was VKRV Rao Professor at the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore in 1998 and 1999, and visiting professor at the Delhi School of Economics in 1998. Before academia, Michael worked for 20 years at the World Bank, including on Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Zimbabwe. While there he led two and worked on two other World Development Reports (on Poverty in 1990 and 2000, on Labor in 1995, and Inequality in 2005). Book publications include co-edited volumes on Culture and Public Action, and No Growth without Equity? on Mexico.  Current research in India, includes work on Self Help Groups and on scaling up of social enterprises of the Self Employed Women’s Association.  Michael is also a dancer.  He has a B.A. in Philosophy and Economics and an M.Phil. in Economics from Oxford University.

 

This event was sponsored with the Sigur Center for Asian Studies.

According to Shakespeare, “Every Cloud Engenders Not a Storm”

Monday November 23, 2020

10:30AM-12:00PM EST

via Zoom

Users were first introduced to the idea that their data was stored somewhere in the ether, aka “the cloud” around 2010. But that vague notion of the cloud was not reality. In the decade that followed, cloud computing has shaped how firms store, utilize and assess data. Despite its many benefits, the cloud presents new challenges for data security. Some nations have responded to this challenge by asserting that they must have their own national cloud. Our webinar on November 23, at 10:30 focused on the role of data in cloud computing, data sovereignty, and related security issues. Our three speakers examined cloud computing from different vantage points in a moderated discussion.

Speakers:

Trey Herr, Director, Cyber Statecraft Initiative, The Atlantic Council

Josephine Wolff, Assistant Professor, Cybersecurity Policy, Tufts University

Chelsea J. Smethurst, Senior Security Strategy, Cybersecurity Strategy, Microsoft

Moderator:

Professor Costis Toregas, Director, Cyber Security and Privacy Research Institute, George Washington

 

You can email questions in advance to datagovhub@gwu.edu or by using the Q&A function at the bottom of your screen during the webinar. Please note that we will disable chats, video, and audio of attendees.

Please contact saaronso@gwu.edu with any questions. See you soon.

Recovering from Pandemic Recessions

Friday, November 20, 2020
WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

In this panel event, Dr. John Rogers, Senior Adviser at the Federal Reserve Board, and Michael Song, Professor of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, will share their respective research investigating economic recessions and recoveries during modern health crises and China’s economic experience during the current pandemic.

Examining historical episodes, John Rogers’ latest work finds that during the previous modern health crises, real GDP growth fell by around three percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth was rapid, but output was still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers was higher and exhibited more persistence, and there was significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment were felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Affected countries’ consumption declined, investment dropped sharply, and international trade plummeted. Bounce-back in these expenditure categories is also rapid but not by enough to restore pre-shock trends. These estimates are viewed as a lower bound for the global economic effects of COVID-19.

Zooming in on the effect of the pandemic and lockdown policy on Chinese economy, Michael will first show his estimates on the economic impacts of COVID-19 using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data from China. The largest economic impacts are from COVID shocks to Wuhan and Beijing, knocking about three percentage points off the national real income. If all Chinese cities had containment policies that responded to local pandemic severity in the same way as those in Hubei did, China’s first-quarter real income would have been reduced by half. He will then use firm registration records, online sales and job posting data to show the recovery of Chinese economy and its structural patterns.

Meet the Speakers:

Picture of John RogersJohn Rogers is a Senior Adviser in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. He received his BA from the University of Delaware and PhD in economics from the University of Virginia. John was on the economics department faculty at Penn State University, where he rose to Associate Professor in 1996. He began working on the Fed’s multi-country model in the Trade & Financial Studies section, and became section chief in 2003. John is the author of several academic publications in international finance and macroeconomics. He continues to teach those subjects as an adjunct professor in the economics department at Georgetown University. John is the father of five children.

Picture of Michael SongMichael Song is a professor at the Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), an outstanding fellow of the Faculty of Social Science at CUHK, a co-director of CUHK-Tsinghua Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy and a distinguished visiting professor at the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University. His research focuses on Chinese economy and macroeconomics. He published papers on leading academic journals including American Economic Review and Econometrica. His paper “Growing like China” won Sunyefang Economic Science Award and the Best Paper Award for Chinese Young Economists. Before joining CUHK, Prof. Song was an associate professor of economics at Chicago Booth. Prof. Song is also a co-editor of China Economic Review, an associate editor of Econometrica and Journal of European Economic Association and an academic committee member of China’s Economics Foundation.

Meet the Moderator:

Picture of Remi JedwabRémi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Chinese Translation:

乔治华盛顿大学国际经济政策研究所 (The Institute for International Economic Policy) (IIEP) 欢迎您参加中国经济发展和中美经济关系的第十三届年会。今年的研讨会将以用虚拟方式进行。这个活动是全英文的。这次会议是由Sigur亚洲研究中心和乔治华盛顿国际商业教育与研究中心共同主办的。

 

在这次小组讨论会上,美联储高级顾问Dr. John Rogers 和香港中文大学宋铮(Michael Song) 教授将分享他们各自在有关现代健康危机导致的经济衰退和复苏和中国在Covid-19疫情期间经济走向的研究成果。

 

Dr. John Rogers 最近的研究发现在先前健康危机期间,疫情爆发当年,被影响的国家的实际国内生产总值相对于未受到影响的国家跌幅达到3%。实际国内生产总值反弹很快,但五年后产量仍然比爆发年前低。受教育程度较低的工人失业率持续偏高,并且表现出更大的持久性;女性失业持久性也明显比男性高。对在疫情第一年提供大量政府资助,尤其医疗方面支出,的国家,实际国内生产总值和失业影响偏小。受到影响的国家消费,投资,和国际贸易都跌幅很大,虽然反弹迅速,但仍然不足以恢复爆发年前的趋势。此研究认为以往健康危机对经济的影响是此次COVID-19 对全球经济影响的下限。

 

专注于目前Covid-19疫情与隔离政策对中国经济的影响,宋教授的工作指出隔离对经济,包括从人口和货物流动到总产出,都带来剧烈影响。消费支出的大小和结构也有很大的调整。隔离的时间结束以后,制造业恢复迅速,而用电量,零售额和餐饮收入则表现较大跨区域异质性,服务业产出的也受到更大影响。

 

演讲者:

 

宋铮 (Michael Song)

宋铮是香港中文大学经济系的教授,社会科学院的杰出学者, 清华大学-香港中文大学中国经济联合研究中心的主任,和清华大学经济管理学院杰出访问教授。他的研究领域为中国经济和宏观经济学。宋教授的论文在顶级学术期刊,包括American Economic Review 和 Econometrica,发表。他的论文 “Growing like China” 获得孙冶方经济学奖和中国青年经济学家优秀论文奖。在加入香港中文大学之前, 宋铮曾任芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学副教授。他的学术兼职还包括 China Economic Review 联合主编,Econometrica 和 Journal of European Economic Association 副主编, 中国经济学基金会学术委员会委员等。

 

John Rogers

John Rogers 是美联储国际金融部的高级顾问。他拥有德拉瓦大学 (University of Delaware) 的政治和经济学士学位,以及弗吉尼亚大学 (University of Virginia) 的经济学博士学位。 Dr. Rogers曾在宾夕法尼亚州立大学 (Pennsylvania State University) 经济系任教,并于1996年升任副教授。他在美联储的贸易与金融研究部门研究美联储的多国模型,并于2003年成为该部门负责人。 Dr. Rogers 是诸多国际金融和宏观经济学方面学术出版物的作者。目前Dr. Rogers 在乔治敦大学 (Georgetown University) 经济学系担任兼职教授。他也是五个小孩的爸爸。

Valuing Nature: Whales, Elephants, and the Global Economy

Thursday, November 19, 2020
12:00 p.m. – 1:15 p.m.

via WebEx

Economic systems and human well-being depend critically on natural services provided by a huge range of ecosystems. But those ecosystems are being rapidly destroyed by failure to value those services. As the understanding grows that nature provides finite and often irreplaceable inputs into human lives and livelihoods, new methods are emerging to value natural capital and incorporate those valuations into markets and public policy.

In this webinar, IMF economist Ralph Chami builds on his pathbreaking studies on whales, elephants, and other natural service-providers to lay out an accessible valuation framework that decision makers can use to build public-private partnerships, create employment opportunities, and build a nature-friendly and inclusive global economy. ASU-Thunderbird professor Ann Florini will provide discussant remarks.

This webinar was moderated by Dr. Sunil Sharma, Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, alongside IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics. This event is co-sponsored by the Thunderbird School of Management at Arizona State University and the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU.

Meet the Discussants:

 

Ralph Chami PictureRalph Chami is currently an Assistant Director at the IMF and leads the Western Hemisphere Division of the Institute for Capacity Development (ICD). Previously, he was Assistant Director and Division Chief in the Middle East and Central Asia Department responsible for the Regional Economic Outlook, and then the surveillance and program work on fragile states. His forthcoming book on Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, co-edited with Raphael Espinoza and Peter Montiel, will be published by Oxford University Press in January 2021. Before joining the IMF in 1999, he was on the Finance faculty of the Mendoza School of Business, University of Notre Dame, USA. Dr. Chami has a Ph.D. in Economics from the Johns Hopkins University, and his areas of interest include banking regulation and supervision, financial markets, remittances, and climate change.

Picture of Ann FloriniAnn Florini is Clinical Professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Arizona State University, where she directs programs at the Washington, D.C. campus. She was previously Professor of Public Policy at Singapore Management University founding director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore; and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. She has spearheaded numerous international initiatives on global governance, energy and climate policy, and cross-sector collaborations including government, civil society, and the private sector. Her many books and articles have addressed governance in China, transparency in governance, transnational civil society networks, and the role of the private sector in public affairs. Dr. Florini received her Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a Masters in Public Affairs from Princeton University.

Picture of James E. FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

Sunil SharmaSunil Sharma is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, and a Senior Associate at the Council on Economic Policies, Zurich, Switzerland. He was Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department from 2015-2018, and the Director of the IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) in Singapore from 2006-2015. Before moving to Singapore in 2006, he was Chief of the IMF Institute’s Asian Division in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the IMF in 1992, he was on the Economics faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Cornell University, and his current interests include rethinking capitalism and democracy, systemic hazards, complex systems, the international financial architecture,  and the institutional structure and design of financial regulation.

 

More info can be found here.

 

Theory and Practice: The Economics of Implementation and India’s Covid-19 Response

Thursday, November 12, 2020
9:00 am – 10:30 am EDT
WebEx

This was the third webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. It is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The third event, “Theory and Practice: The Economics of Implementation and India’s Covid-19 Response” featured Rohini Pande, Henry J. Heinz II Professor of Economics and Director of the Economic Growth Center at Yale University, Ravi Kanbur, T.H. Lee Professor of World Affairs, International Professor of Applied Economics and Management, and Professor of Economics at Cornell University, and Jayati Ghosh, former Chair of the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning at the Jawaharal Nehru University.

The onset of Covid-19 has changed the trajectory of global poverty reduction, especially in South Asia. India is now predicted to see large increases in the number of people living in extreme poverty. And, in an environment of low economic growth, this heightened socio-economic inequality is likely to persist unless the state can redistribute adequate resources towards the poor. As a short-run response during the lockdown, India announced gender-targeted cash transfers and increased free food rations. However, with the `unlocking’ of the economy now near complete, the Indian state is largely relying on labor markets, undergirded by the employment guarantee program in rural areas, to provide the poor and vulnerable the resources they need. How well did India’s social protection system protect the vulnerable in the short-run? What did we learn about the relative success of food versus cash transfers when state capacity is low? In the medium-run, are labor markets succeeding in protecting the poor? How are the less powerful – especially women – faring in the covid-19 economy? Looking ahead, how should we factor in considerations of state capacity and accountability in evaluating policy proposals, such as Universal Basic Income and urban employment guarantees? Or, in devising policies to eventually put an end to the pandemic?

About the Panelists:

Picture of Panelist Rohini Pande Rohini Pande is the Henry J. Heinz II Professor of Economics and Director of the Economic Growth Center, Yale University. She is a co-editor of American Economic Review: Insights. Pande’s research is largely focused on how formal and informal institutions shape power relationships and patterns of economic and political advantage in society, particularly in developing countries. She is interested in the role of public policy in providing the poor and disadvantaged political and economic power, and how notions of economic justice and human rights can help justify and enable such change. Her most recent work focuses on testing innovative ways to make the state more accountable to its citizens, such as strengthening women’s economic and political opportunities, ensuring that environmental regulations reduce harmful emissions, and providing citizens effective means to voice their demand for state services. In 2018, Pande received the Carolyn Bell Shaw Award from the American Economic Association for promoting the success of women in the economics profession. She is the co-chair of the Political Economy and Government Group at Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), a Board member of Bureau of Research on Economic Development (BREAD) and a former co-editor of The Review of Economics and Statistics. Before coming to Yale, Pande was the Rafik Harriri Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard Kennedy School, where she co-founded Evidence for Policy Design. Pande received a Ph.D. in economics from London School of Economics, a BA/MA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University and a BA in Economics from Delhi University.

Ravi Kanbur is the T.H. Lee Professor of World Affairs, International Professor of Applied Economics and Management, Professor of Economics, Cornell University. He researches and teaches in development economics, public economics and economic theory. He has served on the senior staff of the World Bank including as Chief Economist for Africa. He has also published in the leading economics journals, including Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review, Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Economic Theory and Economic Journal. He is Co-Chair of the Food Economics Commission and Co-Chair of the Scientific Council of the International Panel on Social Progress. The positions he has held include: Chair of the Board of United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Research, member of the OECD High Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance, President of the Human Development and Capability Association and President of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

Picture of Panelist Jayati Ghosh Jayati Ghosh taught economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi for nearly 35 years. From January 2020 she will join the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA. She has authored and/or edited 19 books (including “Never Done and Poorly Paid: Women’s Work in Globalising India”, Women Unlimited, New Delhi 2009; the co-edited “Elgar Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Development, 2014, “Demonetisation Decoded”, Routledge 2017 and “Women workers in the informal economy”, Routledge forthcoming) and nearly 200 scholarly articles. She has received several prizes, including for distinguished contributions to the social sciences in India in 2015; the International Labour Organisation’s Decent Work Research Prize for 2010; the NordSud Prize for Social Sciences 2010, Italy. She has advised governments in India and other countries, including as Chairperson of the Andhra Pradesh Commission on Farmers’ Welfare in 2004, and Member of the National Knowledge Commission of India (2005-09). She is the Executive Secretary of International Development Economics Associates, an international network of heterodox development economists. She has consulted for international organisations including ILO, UNDP, UNCTAD, UN-DESA, UNRISD and UN Women and is member of several international commissions, including the International Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation (ICRICT) and the Commission for Global Economic Transformation of INET. She writes regularly for popular media like newspapers, journals and blogs.

 

About the Organizers:

Picture of James E. Foster James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His joint 1984 Econometrica paper (with Joel Greer and Erik Thorbecke) is one of the most cited papers on poverty. It introduced the FGT Index, which has been used in thousands of studies and was employed in targeting the Progresa CCT program in Mexico. Other research includes work on economic inequality with Amartya Sen; on the distribution of human development with Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva and Miguel Szekely; on multidimensional poverty with Sabina Alkire; and on literacy with Kaushik Basu.

Professor Foster’s work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank.

Picture of Ajay Chhibber Ajay Chhibber is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute of International Economic Policy, George Washington University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, the Atlantic Council, Washington DC. He was earlier Director General, Independent Evaluation Office, Government of India and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the National Institute of  Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), India. He held senior positions at the UN as Assistant Secretary General and Assistant Administrator, UNDP and managed their program for Asia and the Pacific. He also served in senior positions at the World Bank. He has a Ph.D. from Stanford University, a Masters from the Delhi School of Economics. He taught at Georgetown University and at the University of Delhi.

International Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region Amidst U.S.-China Tensions

Tuesday, November 10, 2020
7:00 p.m. – 8:15 p.m. EST
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. The conference took place as a virtual series and was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research. This event in the series was co-sponsored and hosted by Elliott School of International Affairs Alumni Programs.

Since 2017, trade disputes between the U.S. and China have spiraled into a full blown economic and trade war. U.S. tariff rates on Chinese imports rose from an average 3.1 percent “Most Favored Nation” rate in 2017 to above 20 percent in 2020, covering essentially all imports including both intermediate and consumer goods. China responded by imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products ranging from soybeans to electrical equipment and autos. This trade war has rippled throughout the region to affect the countries of the Asia-Pacific and beyond.

This online panel discussion featured two prominent GW alumni working in the Asia-Pacific region: Chris Fussner, CCAS BA ’79, founder and president of TransTechnology Worldwide, based in Singapore, and Frank Wong, ESIA BA ’79, president of Scholastic Asia, based in Hong Kong. Prof. Maggie Chen, professor of economics and international affairs at the George Washington University, moderated the discussion.

Meet the Discussants:

Picture of Maggie ChenMaggie Chen is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. She has served as Director of GW’s Institute for International Economic Policy and worked as an economist in the research department of the World Bank and a consultant for the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Professor Chen’s research areas include multinational firms, international trade, and regional trade agreements. Her work has been published in academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. She is a co-editor of Economic Inquiry and an associate editor of Economic Modeling.

Picture of Chris FussnerChris Fussner is founder and president of TransTechnology Worldwide, based in Singapore, a market leader in the sales and distribution of surface mount technology with offices in 9 countries in Asia and 3 countries in North America. Prior to forming TransTechnology in 1988, Mr. Fussner headed Far East Sales for Amistar Corporation based in Seoul, Korea and Singapore, where he was responsible for Sales and Service for electronics manufacturing industry machines in the Pacific, as well as the Western United States. Mr. Fussner started his international career working with relief and refugee resettlement in West Africa and Malaysia. He holds a B.A. in History and Asian Studies from GW, and a Master of International Management from the Thunderbird School of Global Management. He previously served on the board of advisors for GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs.

Picture of Frank WongFrank Wong is President of Scholastic Asia, and based in Hong Kong. Before joining Scholastic Asia as President over 15 years ago, he was Managing Director of PepsiCo’s food business in China and established best practices in sales execution and in-store merchandising. Prior to PepsiCo, Frank Wong spent 5 years with Nabisco, successfully building the company’s international brand identity. Wong also held various marketing positions at Colgate-Palmolive in New York and was co-founder and President of a start-up venture to develop and market special electronic products for the visually impaired around the world. Mr. Wong was born in Hong Kong and speaks fluent Mandarin and Cantonese. In addition to his degree from GW, he holds a Masters in International Affairs from Columbia University and did advanced studies at Harvard’s JFK School of Government. He is the recipient of the 2015 Alumni Outstanding Service Award from the GW Alumni Association.

13th Annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Relations

Virtual Conference Series

Beginning October 30, 2020

via Webex

Schedule of Events

Friday, October 30: Keynote:

                              Carmen M. Reinhart (World Bank Group): Debt After COVID

Tuesday, November 10, 2020: International Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region

Christopher J. Fussner (TransTechnology Worldwide)

Frank Wong (Scholastic Asia)

Maggie Chen (Institute for International Economic Policy)

Friday, November 20, 2020: 13th China conference panel – Michael Song and John Rogers

Moderator: Remi Jedwab

Michael Song (Chinese University of Hong Kong): 

John Rogers (Federal Reserve Board):

Friday, January 15, 2021: The Biden Administration Turns to a Deteriorating US-China Relationship

                               Moderator: Barbara Stallings

                              David M. Lampton (Foreign Policy Institute and Johns Hopkins–SAIS)

                              Deborah Lehr (Paulson Institute)

Friday, March 5th, 2021: China’s Outward Investments: State Capitalism or Capital Flight?

                                Moderator: Jay Shambaugh 

                              Meg Rithmire (Harvard)

                              Deoborah Brautigam (JHU)

                                Stephen B. Kaplan

Friday, April 9th, 2021: Minimum Performance Targets, Multitasking and Incentives: Theory and Evidence from China’s Air Quality Controls

                                Moderators: Jay Shambaugh, Chao Wei

                             Li-An Zhou

                             Matthew E. Kahn

Friday, April 30th, 2021: Globalizing Patient Capital: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in the Americas

                               Moderators: Jay Shambaugh

                             Stephen Kaplan

                              Carol Wise (University of Southern California) 

                              Roselyn Hsueh (Temple University) 

An archive of all previous Annual Conferences on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations is available here.

For more information, please contact Kyle Renner at iiep@gwu.edu or 202-994-5320.

Cosponsored by:

13th China Conference Keynote Address: China’s Overseas Lending and Developing-Country Debt After COVID with Carmen Reinhart

Friday, October 30, 2020
9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
via WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year the conference will take place as a virtual series, beginning on October 30th, with a keynote address from Carmen Reinhart on “Debt After COVID”. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly lengthened the list of developing and emerging market economies in debt distress. For some, a crisis is imminent. For many more, only exceptionally low global interest rates may be delaying a reckoning. Default rates are rising, and the need for debt restructuring is growing. Yet new challenges may hamper debt workouts unless governments and multilateral lenders provide better tools to navigate a wave of restructuring.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Carmen M. Reinhart

Carmen M. Reinhart is the Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. Assuming this role on June 15, 2020, Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department.

Reinhart’s areas of expertise are in international finance and macroeconomics. Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. She has published extensively on capital flows, exchange rate policy, banking and sovereign debt crises, and contagion. She comes to this position on public service leave from Harvard Kennedy School where she is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System. Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland.

During her career, Reinhart has worked in numerous roles to address policy challenges including most recently, the coronavirus pandemic and its economic impact. She serves in the Advisory Panels of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the International Monetary Fund. Earlier, she was the Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund and held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns.

Ranked among the top Economists worldwide based on publications and scholarly citations, Reinhart has been listed among Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance, Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, and Thomson Reuters’ The World’s Most Influential Scientific Minds. In 2018 she was awarded the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics and NABE’s Adam Smith Award, among others. Her book (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) entitled This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award. She holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University.

Recording of the event: here

Transcript of the event: here

 

IMF October 2020 World Economic Outlook

October 28, 2020

11:00 am – 12:30 pm

via WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) hosted a virtual discussion of the IMF’s October 2020 World Economic Outlook.

Agenda

11:00 – 11:05 a.m.     Welcoming Remarks:
James Foster and Jay Shambaugh, IIEP Co-Directors, George Washington University

11:05 – 11:35  a.m.     Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies 
Presenter:   Malhar Nabar, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Claudia Sahm, SAHM Consulting

11:35 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.     Chapter 2: The Great Lockdown: Dissecting the Economic Effects 
Presenter:   Francesca Caselli, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Tara Sinclair, George Washington University

12:00 – 12:25 p.m.     Chapter 3: Mitigating Climate Change: Growth-and-Distribution-Friendly Strategies
Presenters: Florence Jaumotte , International Monetary Fund 
Discussant: Ken Gillingham, Yale University

12:25 – 12:30 p.m.                 General Q&A and Concluding Remarks

 

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

The months after the release of the June 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update have offered a glimpse of how difficult rekindling economic activity will be while the pandemic surges. During May and June, as many economies tentatively reopened from the Great Lockdown, the global economy started to climb from the depths to which it had plunged in April. But with the pandemic spreading and accelerating in places, many countries slowed reopening, and some are reinstating partial lockdowns. While the swift recovery in China has surprised on the upside, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

Chapter 2: The Great Lockdown: Dissecting the Economic Effects

To contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and protect susceptible populations, most countries imposed stringent lockdown measures in the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, economic activity contracted dramatically on a global scale. This chapter aims to dissect the nature of the economic crisis in the first seven months of the pandemic. It finds that the adoption of lockdowns was an important factor in the recession, but voluntary social distancing in response to rising infections also contributed very substantially to the economic contraction. Therefore, although easing lockdowns can lead to a partial recovery, economic activity is likely to remain subdued until health risks abate.

Chapter 3: Mitigating Climate Change: Growth-and-Distributional-Friendly Strategies

Without further action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is on course to reach temperatures not seen in millions of years, with potentially catastrophic implications. The analysis in this chapter suggests that an initial green investment push combined with steadily rising carbon prices would deliver the needed emission reductions at reasonable transitional global output effects, putting the global economy on a stronger and more sustainable footing over the medium term.

Immunocapital: Disease, Power, and Inequality in the Antebellum Cotton Kingdom

Monday, October 26, 2020
12:30 pm – 2:00 pm EDT
WebEx

We were pleased to invite you to a new webinar series, “Facing Inequality”, hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy. This virtual series focused on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe. The series brought attention to aspects of inequality being made increasingly relevant by the current COVID-19 pandemic and associated crises. The series was organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Faculty Affiliate Trevor Jackson, Assistant Professor of History. The series was co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series, co-organized by Prof. Jackson from the Department of History and Prof. Bryan Stuart from the Department of Economics.

This was the ninth event in the facing inequality series. Our distinguished guest was Dr. Kathryn Olivarius. Based on Olivarius’s current book project, this talk discussed the impact of yellow fever in New Orleans in the antebellum period and how disease and immunity became agents of inequality. Yellow fever killed upwards of eight percent of antebellum New Orleans’ population each summer. It was terrifying: there was do cure, no inoculation, no conclusive evidence of disease transmission, and no satisfactory proof for why it killed some while leaving others symptomatic. It was, moreover, a sudden and horrible way to die, with victims famously vomiting up thick black vomit at the end of their illness. About half of all nineteenth-century victims died; the other half became “acclimated” or immune for life. The Cotton Kingdom was a slave society where whites dominated free people of color and enslaved people through legally sanctioned violence. But another invisible hierarchy came to co-mingle with the racial order; white “acclimated citizens” stood atop the social pyramid, followed by white “unacclimated strangers,” followed by everyone else. Here, the acclimated wielded their immunity at every turn, making epidemiological discrimination a major form of bias in this already unequal society.

Agenda:

12:30 p.m. – Welcome Remarks by IIEP Director James Foster and Facing Inequality co-organizer Prof. Trevor Jackson
12:35 p.m. – Introductory Remarks and Setting the Stage by Dayna Matthew, GW Law School Dean
12:50 p.m. – “Immunocapital: Disease, Power, and Inequality in the Antebellum Cotton Kingdom” by Kathryn Olivarius, Stanford University
1:30 p.m. – Discussant Remarks by Martin Saavedra, Oberlin College
1:40 p.m. – Response by Kathryn Olivarius
1:45 p.m. – Audience Q&A moderated by IIEP Director James Foster
2:00 p.m. – Event Conclusion

About the Speakers:

Picture of Kathryn Olivarius, Featured speakerKathryn Olivarius is an Assistant Professor of History at Stanford University, where she has taught since 2017. Her research and teaching focus on slavery’s rise and fall in the American South and the wider Atlantic World, disease in the nineteenth century, the history of race and ethnicity, and the social upheaval of the Age of Revolutions. Last year, she was awarded Stanford’s Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for undergraduate teaching. Before moving to California, she was a Past and Present postdoctoral fellow at the Institute for Historical Research in London. Her book entitled Necropolis: Disease, Power, and Capitalism in the Cotton Kingdom will be published by Harvard University Press in Fall 2021. Her article “Immunity, Power, and Belonging in Antebellum New Orleans,” was published by the American Historical Review last year.

About the Discussant:

Picture of Martin SaavedraMartin Saavedra is an Associate Professor of Economics at Oberlin College and earned his PhD in Economics from the    University of Pittsburgh in 2014. He primarily works in the fields of economic history, health economics, and labor economics, and his research focuses on the economics of infectious disease, infant health, and the WW2 internment of Japanese Americans. His work has been published in the Journal of Economic History, Explorations in Economic History, the Journal of Economic Literature, among others.

 

About GW Law School Dean Danya Bowen Matthew:

Picture of Dayna Matthew, Dean of GW Law SchoolDayna Bowen Matthew, JD, PhD, is the Dean and Harold H. Greene Professor of Law at the George Washington University Law School. Dean Matthew is a leader in public health and civil rights law who focuses on racial disparities in health care. She joined the UVA Law faculty in 2017 and is the author of the book Just Medicine: A Cure for Racial Inequality in American Health Care. At UVA, she served as Co-Founder and Inaugural Director of The Equity Center, a transdisciplinary research center that seeks to build better relationships between UVA and the Charlottesville community through community-engaged scholarship that tangibly redresses racial and socioeconomic inequality.

Dean Matthew previously served on the University of Colorado law faculty as a Professor, Vice Dean, and Associate Dean of Academic Affairs. She was a member of the Center for Bioethics and Humanities on the Anschutz Medical Campus. Dean Matthew held a joint appointment at the Colorado School of Public Health. In 2013, she co-founded the Colorado Health Equity Project, a medical-legal partnership incubator aimed at removing barriers to good health for low-income clients by providing legal representation, research, and policy advocacy. In 2015, she served as the Senior Adviser to the Director of the Office of Civil Rights for the US Environmental Protection Agency, where she expedited cases on behalf of historically vulnerable communities besieged by pollution. She then became a member of the health policy team for US Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan and worked on public health issues. During 2015-16, she was a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Policy Fellow in Residence in Washington, DC, and pivoted her work toward population-level clients.

India’s COVID-19 Challenge: Outcomes and Options

Thursday, October 15, 2020
10:30 am – 12:00 pm EDT
WebEx

This was the second webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. It is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The second event, “India’s COVID-19 Challenge: Outcomes and Options” featured Raghuram Rajan, Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, and Bina Agarwal, Professor of Development Economics and Environment at the University of Manchester. The discussion was moderated by Professor James Foster, with an introduction by Dr. Ajay Chhibber.

India has been hit hard by the Coronavirus. Today it has amongst the highest number of cases world-wide and daily rising death rates. One of the world’s strictest lockdowns in March, with no warning, flattened the economy instead of flattening the Covid-19 curve. In Q1 FY 2020-21 (April to June), India’s GDP fell by almost 24%, while the FY 2020-21GDP growth is projected to be between -5% and -10%, amongst the largest drop globally. The economy was already ailing prior to Covid, with growth falling for 7 previous quarters. COVID will set it back further, perhaps by at least 5 years and push millions out of work and into poverty. India’s ambitious goal of becoming a $5 Trillion economy by 2025 seems a distant dream now.

The lockdown also forced millions of urban migrants to return to their rural homes, under great hardship, carrying with them the virus and the despair of joblessness. India’s woefully inadequate public health system is now overwhelmed. Central and State finances are in deep trouble and the GST (as a sign of Cooperative Federalism) is beset with intense political friction. The already struggling financial system is likely to sink even deeper into the mire. The Rs 20 Trillion (10% of GDP) package announced by the government with much fanfare under the Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Self-reliant India scheme), is too small – especially its fiscal component -to repair the economic damage or revive livelihoods. The package includes a series of reforms in agricultural markets and labor markets as well as a greater push for “ Make in India”. But will these reforms help India at this stage?

India is between a rock and a hard place. Did it have to get so bad? Is there any good news? A silver lining anywhere? Is there scope for some transformative change? Or do we, as with the virus, have to brace ourselves to “live with” this economic downturn for a long stretch ahead?

Our distinguished panelists discussed these challenges and possible options and solutions.

About the Panelists:

Picture of Raghuram Rajan, panelist

Raghuram Rajan is the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. He was the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between 2013 and 2016, and also served as Vice-Chairman of the Board of the Bank for International Settlements between 2015 and 2016. Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund from 2003 to 2006.

Dr. Rajan’s research interests are in banking, corporate finance, and economic development, especially the role finance plays in it. He co-authored Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists with Luigi Zingales in 2003. He then wrote Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy, for which he was awarded the Financial Times-Goldman Sachs prize for best business book in 2010. His most recent book, The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State hold the Community Behind was published in 2019.

Dr. Rajan was the President of the American Finance Association in 2011 and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Group of Thirty. In 2003, the American Finance Association awarded Dr. Rajan the inaugural Fischer Black Prize for the best finance researcher under the age of 40. The other awards he has received include the Deutsche Bank Prize for Financial Economics in 2013, Euromoney magazine’s Central Banker of the Year Award 2014 and The Banker magazine’s Global Central Banker of the Year award in 2016.

Picture of Bina Agarwal, Panelist Bina Agarwal is Professor of Development Economics and Environment at the Global Development Institute, University of Manchester, UK, and former Professor and Director, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi. She has been President,  International Society for Ecological Economics; Vice-President, International Economic Association; President,                    International Society for Feminist Economics; and held distinguished positions at the Universities of Cambridge, Harvard,    Princeton, Michigan, Minnesota, and the New York University School of Law. Dr. Agarwal’s publications include the multiple award-winning book, A Field of One’s Own: Gender and Land Rights in South Asia (Cambridge University Press, 1994), Gender and Green Governance (OUP, 2010) and Gender Challenges (OUP, 2016), a three volume compendium of her selected papers on Agriculture, Property, and the Environment. Her pioneering work on gender inequality in property and land and on environmental governance, has had global impact. Her many awards include a Padma Shri, 2008; book prizes; the Leontief Prize 2010; Louis Malassis Scientific Prize 2017; and the International Balzan Prize, 2017.

 

About the Organizers:

Picture of James E. Foster James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His joint 1984 Econometrica paper (with Joel Greer and Erik Thorbecke) is one of the most cited papers on poverty. It introduced the  FGT Index, which has been used in thousands of studies and was employed in targeting the Progresa CCT program in Mexico. Other research includes work on economic inequality with Amartya Sen; on the distribution of human development with Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva and Miguel Szekely; on multidimensional poverty with Sabina Alkire; and on literacy with Kaushik Basu.

Professor Foster’s work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank.

Ajay Chhibber is a Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute of International Economic Policy, George Washington University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, the Atlantic Council, Washington DC. He was earlier Director General, Independent Evaluation Office, Government of India and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), India. He held senior positions at the UN as Assistant Secretary General and Assistant Administrator, UNDP and managed their program for Asia and the Pacific. He also served in senior positions at the World Bank. He has a PhD from Stanford University, a Masters from the Delhi School of Economics. He taught at Georgetown University and at the University of Delhi.

Short and long-run distributional impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America

Monday, October 12, 2020
12:30 pm – 2:00 pm EDT
WebEx

“Facing Inequality” is a webinar series hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy. This virtual series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe. The series brings attention to aspects of inequality being made increasingly relevant by the current COVID-19 pandemic and associated crises. It is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Faculty Affiliate Trevor Jackson, Assistant Professor of History. The series is co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series, co-organized by Prof. Jackson from the Department of History and Prof. Bryan Stuart from the Department of Economics.

This was the eighth event in the facing inequality series. Our distinguished speakers, Nora Lustig and Guido Neidhöfer discussed their paper, “Short and long-run distributional impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America ” (Lustig, Neidhöfer and Tommasi). They simulate the short- and long-term distributional consequences of COVID-19 in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. They show that the short-term impact on income inequality and poverty can be very significant but that additional spending on social assistance has a large offsetting effect in Brazil and Argentina. The effect is much smaller in Colombia and nil in Mexico, where there has been no such expansion. To project the long-term consequences, they estimate the impact of the pandemic on human capital and its intergenerational persistence. Hereby, they use information on school lockdowns, educational mitigation policies, and account for educational losses related to parental job loss. Their findings show that in all four countries the impact is strongly asymmetric and affects particularly the human capital of the most vulnerable. Consequently, educational inequality and inequality of opportunity are expected to increase substantially, in spite of the mitigation policies.

 

About the Speakers:

Picture of Panelist Nora Lustig Nora Lustig is Samuel Z. Stone Professor of Latin American Economics and the founding Director of the Commitment to    Equity Institute (CEQ) at Tulane University. She is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, the  Center for Global Development and the Inter-American Dialogue. Professor Lustig’s research focuses on economic development, inequality and social policies with emphasis on Latin America. Her recent publication Commitment to Equity Handbook: Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty is a step-by-step guide to assessing the impact of taxation and social spending on inequality and poverty in developing countries. Prof. Lustig is a founding member and President Emeritus of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) and was a co-director of the World Bank’s World Development Report 2000, Attacking Poverty. She serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Economic Inequality and is a member of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality’s Executive Council. Prof. Lustig served on the Atkinson Commission on Poverty, the High-level Group on Measuring Economic Performance and Social Progress, and the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance. She received her doctorate in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

Picture of Panelist Guido Neidhöfer Guido Neidhöfer is an advanced researcher in the Labor Markets and Human Resources department at ZEW Mannheim, Germany, as well as a fellow at the College for Interdisciplinary Educational Research (CIDER), visiting scholar at the Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS) of the National University of La Plata, and an associated researcher of the Centro de Estudios para el Desarrollo Humano (CEDH) of the Universidad de San Andres in Argentina. His research focuses on the causes and consequences of economic inequality, social mobility, education and migration.

 

About the Discussants:

Picture of Professor Stephen. B. Kaplan Stephen B. Kaplan is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs. Professor Kaplan’s research and teaching interests focus on the frontiers of international and comparative political economy, where he specializes in the political economy of global finance and development, the rise of China in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin American politics.

Professor Kaplan joined the GWU faculty in the fall of 2010 after completing a postdoctoral research fellowship at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton University and his Ph.D at Yale University. While at Yale, Kaplan also worked as a researcher for former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. Prior to his doctoral studies, Professor Kaplan was a senior economic analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, writing extensively on developing country economics, global financial market developments, and emerging market crises from 1998 to 2003.

Picture of Michael Wolfson Dr. Michael C. Wolfson received his B.Sc with honours from University of Toronto jointly in mathematics, computer science and economics in 1971, and then a Ph.D. from Cambridge in economics in 1977.  He retired as Assistant Chief      Statistician, Analysis and Development (which included the Health Statistics program and the central R&D function) at Statistics Canada in 2009.  He was awarded a Canada Research Chair in Population Health Modeling in the Faculty of      Medicine at the University of Ottawa for 2010-2017.  Prior to joining Statistics Canada, he held increasingly senior positions in the Treasury Board Secretariat, the Department of Finance, the Privy Council Office, the House of Commons, and the Deputy Prime Minister’s Office.  While a senior public servant, he was also a founding Fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research Program in Population Health (1988-2003). He is a Fellow of the Canadian Academy of Health Sciences, an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, and a member of the recently created Canadian Statistics Advisory Council.

No Going Back: Post Corona Reconstruction Program

Tuesday, September 29, 2020
11 am EDT
WebEx

We are pleased to invite you to a conversation with Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus, the founder of the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh who created a model for combating poverty through microlending. He is also the founder of the Yunus Centre, a think tank for issues related to social business. He is the author of three books, including Banker to the Poor. The event will be moderated by Dr. James Foster, Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy and Oliver T. Carr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. This event is jointly sponsored by IIEP, the Elliott School of International Affairs, the LEAP Initiative, and the George Washington University.

About the Speaker:
Nobel Laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus is the father of both social business and microcredit, the founder of Grameen Bank, and of more than 50 other companies in Bangladesh. For his constant innovation and enterprise, Fortune magazine named Professor Yunus in March 2012 as “one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time. In 2006, Professor Yunus and Grameen Bank were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their work to “create economic and social development from below.”

Dr. Yunus is the recipient of 61 honorary degrees from universities across 24 countries. He has received 136 awards from 33 countries including state honours from 10 countries. He is one of only seven individuals to have received the Nobel Peace Prize, the United State Presidential Medal of Freedom and the United States Congressional Gold Medal. He has appeared on the cover of Time magazine, Newsweek and Forbes magazine. In 2016 GWU awarded him the President’s Medal in recognition of his service.

 

About the Moderator:

Picture of James FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His joint 1984 Econometrica paper (with Joel Greer and Erik Thorbecke) is one of the most cited papers on poverty. It introduced the FGT Index, which has been used in thousands of studies and was employed in targeting the Progresa CCT program in Mexico. Other research includes work on economic inequality with Amartya Sen; on the distribution of human development with Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva and Miguel Szekely; on multidimensional poverty with Sabina Alkire; and on literacy with Kaushik Basu.

Professor Foster’s work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank.

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Trading Up in the Era of COVID-19

 

Friday, October 23, 2020
9:00 a.m. to 10:15 a.m. (EDT)
Via Webex

The ACFTA and Africa’s Economic Future
A conversation with Albert Muchanga, African Union Commissioner for Trade and Industry, on the road ahead for the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. If successful, the AfCTFA agreement will create the largest free trade area in the world, connecting 1.3 billion people across 55 countries, for a combined GDP of some $3.4 trillion. The COVID-19 crisis has generated new challenges but has made the success of the agreement–which offers a major opportunity to accelerate growth, increase exports and foreign direct investment, and potentially lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty–a matter of even greater urgency. Joining the conversation was be Florizelle Liser, president and CEO of the Corporate Council on Africa and former U.S. Trade Representative for Africa; and Anthony Carroll, Vice President of Manchester Trade, and a specialist in trade, investment, and development in Sub-Saharan Africa.

About the Speakers:

Albert Muchanga joined the African Union Commission as Commissioner for Trade and Industry in March 2017. In this position, he has spearheaded the AU’s efforts in driving the negotiations, conclusion and ratification of the AfCFTA agreement, which entered into force in May 2019. Ambassador Muchanga has extensive experience in the promotion of inter-governmental relations, engagement with the private sector and civil society as well as promotion of regional integration and cooperation as levers of sustainable development. He previously worked in the Zambian Civil Service and served as Zambia’s Ambassador to Brazil and Ethiopia, and Deputy Executive Secretary of the Southern African Development Community.
 
 

Florizelle (Florie) Liser is the third President and CEO of CCA. Ms. Liser brings expertise and an extensive network on trade and Africa to her new role, along with a strong track record of working with the private sector to translate policy into action. She is the first woman to lead the Council since its founding in 1993.

Ms. Liser joined CCA from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), where she was the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Africa since 2003. At USTR, she led trade and investment policy towards 49 sub-Saharan African nations and oversaw implementation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Previously, Ms. Liser served as Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Industry, Market Access, and Telecommunications from 2000-2003. She also served as Senior Trade Policy Advisor in the Office of International Transportation and Trade at the Department of Transportation from 1987-2000; worked as a Director in USTR’s Office of GATT Affairs, and served as an Associate Fellow at the Overseas Development Council (ODC) from 1975-1980.

Currently, she is a member of the Advisory Council for the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Advisory Committee and Sub-Saharan Africa Advisory Committee for the Export-Import Bank (EXIM), and a Board member with the Women in International Trade (WITT). Ms. Liser holds a M.A. in International Economics from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and a B.A. in International Relations and Political Science from Dickinson College.

 

Tony Carroll is vice president of Manchester Trade, a Washington trade, development and business consulting firm. He is also an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University/SAIS and senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He has 35 years of business and development experience in Africa dating from his Peace Corps service in Botswana (1976-78). He specializes in investments that involve transferring new technologies and methodologies to Africa. He served as assistant general counsel to the Peace Corps, member of the advisory boards of EXIM Bank, OPIC and USTR and was a congressional nominee to the Board of the Millennium Challenge Corporation. He currently serves as a director to the Acorus Fund in Hong Kong. He has degrees in economics and law from the University of Denver and an MAPA from the Robert M. LaFollette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.

 

 

 

Jennifer G. Cooke is director of the Institute for African Studies at The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs. The Institute serves as central for research, scholarly discussion, and debate on issues relevant to Africa. She is a professor of practice in international affairs, teaching courses on U.S. Policy Toward Africa and Transnational Security Threats in Africa.

Cooke joined George Washington University in August 2018, after 18 years as director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she led research and analysis on political, economic, and security dynamics in Africa. While at CSIS, Cooke directed projects on a wide range of African issues, including on violent extremist organizations in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, China’s growing role in Africa, democracy and elections in Nigeria, religion and state authority in Africa, “stress-testing” state stability in Africa, Africa’s changing energy landscape, and more. She is a frequent writer and lecturer on U.S.-Africa policy and has provided briefing, commentary, and testimony to the media, US Congress, AFRICOM leadership and the U.S. military.

She has traveled widely in Africa and has been an election observer in Sierra Leone, Ghana, Liberia, Mali, and Nigeria. As a teenager, she lived in Cote d’Ivoire and the Central African Republic. She holds an M.A. in African studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a B.A. in government, magna cum laude, from Harvard University.

 

Cosponsored by:

 

Fiscal Dominance: A Theory of Everything in India

Wednesday, September 9, 2020
10:00 am – 11:30 am EDT
WebEx

Read Prof. Acharya’s responses to our discussants here.

This was the first webinar in the “Envisioning India” series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. It is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The “Envisioning India” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Co-Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The first talk in the Envisioning India Series was “Fiscal Dominance: A Theory of Everything in India” and featured Viral V. Acharya of NYU-Stern.

He discussed the following: Financial stability is perhaps the most important prerequisite for stable growth. It is surprisingly also the most compromised one. Encouraging cheap credit and rapid balance-sheet growth in the financial sector is a temptation that many governments find hard to resist to register well on the short-run growth scorecard. Post 1991 reforms, India undertook an upward and onward march in economic progress for close to two decades. Since then, lack of financial stability has emerged as its Achilles’ heel. The reasons for this are many but a first and foremost contributor has been the increasing dominance of banking and financial sector regulation by the unyielding deficit situation of the consolidated government balance-sheet. Reining in this fiscal dominance requires not just a strengthening of the institutional framework of financial sector regulation but also the right balance between the role played by the government, the central bank, the markets, and the private sector in the economy.

 

About the Speaker:

Viral V. Acharya is the C.V. Starr Professor of Economics in the Department of Finance at New York University Stern School of Business (NYU-Stern) and an Academic Advisor to the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia. Viral was a Deputy Governor at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during 23rd January 2017 to 23rd July 2019 in charge of Monetary Policy, Financial Markets, Financial Stability, and Research. His speeches while at the RBI will release in the end of July 2020 in the form of a book titled “Quest for Restoring Financial Stability in India” (SAGE Publications India), with a new introductory chapter “Fiscal Dominance: A Theory of Everything in India”. Viral completed Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science and Engineering from Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai in 1995 and Ph.D. in Finance from NYU-Stern in 2001. Prior to joining Stern, he was at London Business School (2001-2008), the Academic Director of the Coller Institute of Private Equity at LBS (2007-09) and a Senior Houblon-Normal Research Fellow at the Bank of England (Summer 2008). Viral’s primary research interest is in theoretical and empirical analysis of systemic risk of the financial sector, its regulation and its genesis in government-induced distortions, an inquiry that cuts across several other strands of research – credit risk and liquidity risk, their interactions and agency-theoretic foundations, as well as their general equilibrium consequences. He has published articles in the American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Financial Studies, Review of Finance, Journal of Business, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Rand Journal of Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, and Financial Analysts Journal. He is currently associate editor of the Review of Corporate Finance Studies (RCFS, 2011-) and Review of Finance (2006-), and was an editor of the Journal of Financial Intermediation (2009-12) and associate editor of the Journal of Finance (2011-14).

 

Discussants:

Liaquat Ahamed is the author of the critically acclaimed best-seller, Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, about central bankers during the Great Depression of 1929-1932. The book won the 2010 Pulitzer Prize for History, the 2010 Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Gold Medal, and the 2009 Financial Times-Goldman Sachs Best Business Book of the Year Award. Ahamed was a professional investment manager for twenty-five years. He has worked at the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and the New York-based partnership of Fischer Francis Trees and Watts, where he served as chief executive. He is currently a director of the Putnam Funds. He is on the board of trustees of the Journal of Philosophy, the Sun Valley Writers’ Conference and a former trustee of the Brookings Institution and the New America Foundation. He has degrees in economics from Harvard and Cambridge.

Rakesh Mohan is one of India’s senior-most economic policymakers and an expert on central banking, monetary policy, infrastructure and urban affairs. Most recently he was executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., representing India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Bhutan, and chairman, National Transport Development Policy Committee, Government of India, in the rank of a Minister of State. He is also a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India. As deputy governor he was in charge of monetary policy, financial markets, economic research and statistics. In addition to serving in various posts for the Indian government, including representing India in a variety of international forums such as Basel and G20, Mohan has worked for the World Bank and headed prestigious research institutes. He is also Senior Advisor to the McKinsey Global Institute and Distinguished Fellow of Brookings India. Mohan has written extensively on urban economics, urban development, Indian economic policy reforms, monetary policy and central banking.

A Paradox of Morality: Using Games to Understand Group Moral Responsibility

Thursday, August 20, 2020
10:00 am – 11:30 am EDT
WebEx

This event is co-sponsored by the Elliott School, the Leadership, Ethics, and Practice (LEAP) Initiative, the GW Economics Department‘s Microeconomics Workshop, and the GW Philosophy Department.

The challenge of distributing moral responsibility when a group behaves badly occurs in many walks of life, from war and politics to corporate behavior. This has been discussed at length in economics, philosophy and law. This lecture will draw on moral philosophy and game theory to shed light on this topic, and demonstrate how we often make mistakes when attributing responsibility for collective behavior to individuals. The lecture will present real-life contexts where this problem arises and develop some new games which help us deal with the challenge. It will also present some open-ended questions for further research.

Event Schedule:

Welcome Remarks by IIEP Director James Foster and LEAP Director Christopher Kojm
Address by Prof. Kaushik Basu
Discussant Remarks by James Foster
Q&A moderated by James Foster

About the Speaker:

Kaushik Basu is Professor of Economics and Carl Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University. He is currently the President of the International Economic Association and a nonresident senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution. He recently served as Chief Economist at the World Bank and before that was Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India. During his four years at the Bank he co-taught a popular course in the Elliott School with James Foster, entitled Introduction to Game Theory and Strategic Thinking, which every week brought 150 GW students and many visitors from the Bank and other neighboring institutions to the Harry Harding Auditorium of the Elliott School. One class per term was held in Preston Auditorium of the World Bank. As one student commented “Being taught by Prof. Basu was definitely an only at GW moment!” He has now returned to Cornell but fondly remembers his time in DC – especially his weekly chats with GW students and his daily strolls across the GW campus from home to work in the Bank, and back again.

Professor Basu has research interests that span across development economics, welfare economics, game theory, industrial organization, and law. As a professor at the Delhi School of Economics, he founded the Centre for Development Economics in 1992 and served as its first Executive Director. Kaushik Basu holds a B.A. in Economics from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi University, and M.Sc. and PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics, and several honorary degrees, including doctorates from IIT Bombay, Fordham University New York, Bath University, England, and the University of Florence. His recent books are “An Economist in the Real World” and “The Republic of Beliefs.”

In this presentation, Professor Basu will be recounting his latest research which shows how simple insights from game theory can shed light on problems in moral philosophy. After the presentation, Professor Foster will provide a short commentary and then will moderate an extended session for Q&A from the audience.

A Discussion of the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) 2020

Wednesday, July 29, 2020
12:00 pm – 2:00 pm EDT
WebEx

Please join the Institute for International Economic Policy for a virtual discussion of the Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative’s Global MPI 2020: – Charting pathways out of multidimensional poverty: Achieving the SDGs

 

Participants:

James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University and holds a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo (Mexico). Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His joint 1984 Econometrica paper (with Joel Greer and Erik Thorbecke) is one of the most cited papers on poverty. It introduced the FGT Index, which has been used in thousands of studies and was employed in targeting the Progresa CCT program in México. Other research includes work on economic inequality with Amartya Sen; on the distribution of human development with Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva and Miguel Szekely; on multidimensional poverty with Sabina Alkire; and on literacy with Kaushik Basu. Foster regularly teaches introductory and doctoral courses on international development and each spring joins with Professor Basu in presenting an undergraduate course on Game Theory and Strategic Thinking, to which staff and Board members of the World Bank are also invited. Professor Foster is also Research Fellow at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), Department of International Development, Oxford University, and a member of the Human Capital and Economic Opportunity (HCEO) Working Group, Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics, University of Chicago. He also previously served as an Advisory Board Member on the World Bank’s Commission on Global Poverty.

 

Sabina Alkire directs the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), a research centre within the Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford. Dr Alkire works on a new approach to measuring poverty and well-being that goes beyond the traditional focus on income and growth. This multidimensional approach to measurement includes social goals, such as health, education, nutrition, standard of living and other valuable aspects of life. She devised a new method for measuring multidimensional poverty with her colleague James Foster (OPHI Research Associate and Professor of Economics at George Washington University) that has advantages over other poverty measures and has been adopted by the Mexican Government, the Bhutanese Government in their ‘Gross National Happiness Index’ and the United Nations Development Programme. Dr Alkire has been called upon to provide input and advice to several initiatives seeking to take a broader approach to well-being rather than just economic growth, for example, the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (instigated by President Sarkozy); the United Nations Human Development Programme Human Development Report Office; the European Commission; and the UK’s Department for International Development.

 

Pedro Conceição has been Director of the Human Development Report Office and lead author of the Human Development Report since 1 January 2019. Prior to this, Pedro served as Director, Strategic Policy, at the Bureau for Policy and Programme Support (from October 2014), and Chief Economist and Head of the Strategic Advisory Unit at the Regional Bureau for Africa (from 1 December 2009). Before that, he was Director of the Office of Development Studies (ODS) from March 2007 to November 2009, and Deputy Director of ODS, from October 2001 to February 2007. His work on financing for development and on global public goods was published by Oxford University Press in books he co-edited (The New Public Finance: Responding to Global Challenges, 2006; Providing Global Public Goods: Managing Globalization, 2003). He has published on inequality, the economics of innovation and technological change, and development in, amongst other journals, the African Development Review, Review of Development Economics, Eastern Economic Journal, Ecological Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Food Policy, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change. He co-edited several books including: Innovation, Competence Building, and Social Cohesion in Europe- Towards a Learning Society (Edward Elgar, 2002) and Knowledge for Inclusive Development (Quorum Books, 2001). Prior to coming to UNDP, he was an Assistant Professor at the Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal, teaching and researching on science, technology and innovation policy. He has degrees in Physics from Instituto Superior Técnico and in Economics from the Technical University of Lisbon and a Ph. D. in Public Policy from the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, where he studied with a Fulbright scholarship.

 

Ajay Chhibber is Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute of International Economic Policy, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, the Atlantic Council, Washington DC. He is Chief Economic Advisor, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). He was earlier the first Director General ( Minister of State) , Independent Evaluation Office, Government of India and Distinguished Visiting Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), India – affiliated institute of the Ministry of Finance – where he completed a major study on India’s Public Sector Enterprises. He held senior positions at the UN as Assistant Secretary General and Assistant Administrator, UNDP and managed their program for Asia and the Pacific. At the World Bank he served as Country Director in Turkey and Vietnam and Division Chief for Indonesia and the Pacific and Lead Economist, West Africa Department. He was also Director of the 1997 World Development Report on the Role of the State. He also worked in the World Bank’s Research Department, as Advisor to the Chief Economist of the World Bank and at the Public Economics Division. He has a Ph.D from Stanford University, a Masters from the Delhi School of Economics. He also has attended advanced management programs at the Harvard Business School, Harvard University and INSEAD, France. He taught at Georgetown University and at the University of Delhi. He has published widely including 5 books in development economics, and is a contributor (columnist) to several newspapers. He is now writing a book on “India: A Reset for the 21st Century” under contract with Harper-Collins.

 

Monica Pinilla-Roncancio is a Physiotherapist with a Master’s degree in Economics from Universidad del Rosario. She has also a Master’s degree in Health Economics, Policy and Law from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands. She finished her PhD in Social Policy at the University of Birmingham, UK. From 2016 to 2018 she was as a Postdoctoral Researcher at Universidad de los Andes and currently is an Assistant Professor at the same university. She is the Co-director of Metrics and Policy at OPHI and has been working in OPHI since 2014. She coordinates the work in Latin America, East Asia and some countries in Africa and Middle East. Her main research interest are disability, multidimensional poverty, inequality and health economics.

 

Frances StewartFrances Stewart was Director of ODID from 1993-2003 and Director of the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE) at the department between 2003 and 2010. She has a DPhil from the University of Oxford and an honorary doctorate from the University of Sussex. Among many publications, she is coauthor of UNICEF’s influential study, Adjustment with a Human Face (OUP 1987); War and Underdevelopment (OUP 2001); and leading author and editor of Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies (Palgrave, 2008). She has directed a number of major research programmes including several financed by the UK Government’s Department for International Development, and others by the Swedish Development Agency and the Carnegie Corporation. An Emeritus Fellow of Somerville College, Oxford, Frances has acted as consultant for early Human Development Reports; she has been President of the Human Development and Capability Association; President of the British and Irish Development Studies Association; Chair of the United Nations Committee on Development Policy and Vice-Chair of the Board of the International Food Policy Research Institute. She received the Leontief prize in 2013 for advancing the frontiers of economic thought from Tufts University. She was given the UNDP’s Mahbub ul Haq award for her lifetime’s achievements in promoting human development in 2009; and named one of fifty outstanding technological leaders for 2003 by Scientific American (Policy Leader in Economic Development Strategies for promoting anti-poverty campaigns to help quell armed conflicts in developing countries).

Ricardo Nogales is a Research Officer at OPHI since May 2018. He holds a BSc. and a MSc. In Economics and a PhD in Econometrics, all from the University of Geneva (Switzerland). Before joining OPHI, he was a Professor of Economics at the School of Economics and Finance of the Universidad Privada Boliviana in Bolivia and a Research Assistant at the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) in Switzerland. He carried on research activities in the field of development economics, poverty reduction and human development with the IDB, UNDP, ILO, World Bank, Oxfam and IDRC. He has been an external consultant for several public organizations in Bolivia, including the Program for Strategic Research, the Central Bank, the Institute for Agricultural Insurance and the Ministry of Economics and Public Finance.

 

Dean JolliffeDean Jolliffe is a Lead Economist in the Development Data Group of the World Bank and member of the LSMS-ISA team. He has extensive experience in the design and implementation of household surveys and is currently managing ongoing LSMS-ISA work in Ethiopia. He has also worked in the South Asia region at the Bank on poverty assessments for Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Previously, he was a Research Economist at the Economic Research Service of USDA, an Adjunct Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, an Assistant Professor at the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education in Prague, and a Post-doctoral Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. Dean holds appointments as a Research Fellow with the Institute for the Study of Labor in Bonn, and as a Research Affiliate with the National Poverty Center at the University of Michigan. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University.

Are Informal Workers Benefiting from Globalization? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in India

Tuesday, August 4, 2020
12:30 pm – 2:00 pm EDT
WebEx

We were pleased to invite you to the webinar series “Facing Inequality”, hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy. This virtual series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe. The series brings attention to aspects of inequality being made increasingly relevant by the current COVID-19 pandemic and associated crises. The series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Faculty Affiliate Trevor Jackson, Assistant Professor of History. The series is co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series, co-organized by Prof. Jackson from the Department of History and Prof. Bryan Stuart from the Department of Economics.

The seventh event, “Are Informal Workers Benefiting from Globalization? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in India” featured Dr. Nita Rudra of Georgetown University. The discussion focused on the following: Are citizens in the developing world convinced about the benefits of globalization? By leveraging their comparative advantage in low labor costs, economists predict once-poor citizens will be better off with open markets. Yet, surprisingly little rigorous research exists on if and how workers in developing countries actually experience the benefits of increasing trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in an era of rapidly expanding global supply chains. To answer this question, we focused on the largest cluster of low-wage laborers in developing countries, informal workers, and their experience with FDI. Using observational and experimental methods, we find that both formal and informal workers in India strongly approve of foreign investment. However, the latter are deeply skeptical that the benefits of FDI will ever trickle down to themselves or their future generations. India’s much smaller population of formal workers, by contrast, are confident that they have privileged access to coveted jobs in foreign firms – regardless of skill level- and social mobility prospects will improve. These findings provide new insights on (macro and micro-level) drivers of growing global inequalities, and call for caution amongst scholars, policymakers, the international business community, and all those who anticipate that globalization is lifting all boats.

About the Moderator:

Picture of James FosterJames Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

About the Speaker:

Nita Rudra is a Professor of Government at Georgetown University. Her research interests include: the distributional impacts of trade and financial liberalization as they are mediated by politics and institutions; the influence of international organizations on policies in developing economies; the politics of trade agreements involving developing economies, and the causes and effects of democracy in globalizing developing nations. Her most critical works appear in the British Journal of Political Science, World Politics, Journal of Politics, American Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, International Organization and International Studies Quarterly . Her most recent book with Cambridge University Press is entitled: Democracies in Peril: Taxation and Redistribution in Globalizing Economies. Her current projects analyze how and why widespread poverty persists in rapidly globalizing economies, the politics supporting/resisting changes to the informal sector, the anti-globalization backlash, and the politics of trade and trade agreements.

About the Discussants: 

Picture of Maggie ChenMaggie Chen is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. She has served as Director of GW’s Institute for International Economic Policy and worked as an economist in the research department of the World Bank and a consultant for the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Professor Chen’s research areas include multinational firms, international trade, and regional trade agreements. Her work has been published in academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. She is a co-editor of Economic Inquiry and an associate editor of Economic Modeling.

 

Picture of Deepa OllapallyDeepa Ollapally is a political scientist specializing in Indian foreign policy, India-China relations, and Asian regional and maritime security. She is Research Professor of International Affairs and the Associate Director of the Sigur Center. She also directs the Rising Powers Initiative, a major research program that tracks and analyzes foreign policy debates in aspiring powers of Asia and Eurasia. Dr. Ollapally is currently working on a funded book, Big Power Competition for Influence in the Indian Ocean Region, which assesses the shifting patterns of geopolitical influence by major powers in the region since 2005 and the drivers of these changes. She is the author of five books including Worldviews of Aspiring Powers (Oxford, 2012) and The Politics of Extremism in South Asia (Cambridge, 2008). Her most recent books are two edited volumes, Energy Security in Asia and Eurasia (Routledge, 2017), and Nuclear Debates in Asia: The Role of Geopolitics and Domestic Processes (Rowman & Littlefield, 2016). Dr. Ollapally has received grants from the Carnegie Corporation, MacArthur Foundation, Smith Richardson Foundation, Ford Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Asia Foundation for projects related to India and Asia. Previously, she was Associate Professor at Swarthmore College and has been a Visiting Professor at Kings College, London and at Columbia University. Dr. Ollapally also held senior positions in the policy world including the US Institute of Peace, Washington DC and the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore, India. She is a frequent commentator in the media, including appearances on CNN, BBC, CBS, Diane Rehm Show and Reuters TV. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University.

IMF’s Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook (REO)

Thursday, July 23, 2020
11:00 am – 12:30 pm EDT
WebEx

Please join the Institute for International Economic Policy for a virtual discussion of the International Monetary Fund’s Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook

Schedule
11:00 – 11:05 a.m. Welcoming Remarks:

James Foster, George Washington University

Jennifer Cooke, IAFS Director, George Washington University

11:05 – 11:35  a.m. Chapter 1: Covid-19: An Unprecedented Threat to Development

Presenter: Andrew Tiffin John, Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Louise Fox, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings, and on the Advisory Board of the G-7
Inclusive Growth Financing Forum, former USAID Chief Economist and World Bank official

11:40 – 12:05 p.m. Chapter 2: Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Presenter: Seung Mo Choi, Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Stephen C. Smith, Chair, Economics Department, and Professor of Economics and International Affairs, George Washington University

12:05 – 12:30 p.m. Chapter 3: Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa


Presenters: Preya Sharma, Special Assistant to the Director, African Department, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Esther Chibesa, Head of Treasury and Trade Solutions for SSA, Citigroup; and Michael Mutiga,
Managing Director and Head of Corporate Finance for SSA, Citigroup

12:30 p.m.  Concluding Remarks


Summary Chapter: A Cautious Reopening

The outlook for 2020 for sub-Saharan Africa is considerably worse than was anticipated in April and subject to much uncertainty. Economic activity this year is now projected to contract by some 3.2 percent, reflecting a weaker external environment and measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Growth is projected to recover to 3.4 percent in 2021 subject to the continued gradual easing of restrictions that has started in recent weeks and, importantly, if the region avoids the same epidemic dynamics that have played out elsewhere. Africa’s authorities have acted swiftly to support the economy, but these efforts have been constrained by falling revenues and limited fiscal space. Regional policies should remain focused on safeguarding public health, supporting people and businesses hardest hit by the crisis, and facilitating the recovery. The region cannot tackle these challenges alone, and a coordinated effort by all development partners will be key.

 

Chapter 2: Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is especially vulnerable to climate change, as it relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture and has limited resilience and coping mechanisms. On average, climate change could reduce GDP growth by at least 1 percentage point in the month a climate shock occurs. Improving access to finance and insurance, education, health, telecommunications, and physical infrastructure would be most effective in raising resilience. Ensuring food security and raising agricultural productivity in the face of intensifying weather shocks will require targeted social assistance, crop diversification, and improved irrigation. While these measures involve large public spending, they should be prioritized as they will be more cost-effective than frequent disaster relief. Limited fiscal space poses a challenge and means that development partners’ support will be critical.

 

Chapter 3: Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is rapidly becoming digitally connected and closing gaps with the rest of the world. Digital solutions have taken on added importance as countries grapple with the unprecedented fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. While countries have leveraged digital solutions and policy responses, the connectivity gap between sub Saharan Africa and the rest of the world suggests that greater digital readiness could have allowed the region to do even more. Analysis conducted before the pandemic found that a one percentage point increase in internet penetration in the region can raise per capita growth by 0.1–0.4 percentage points. There does not appear to be an impact on overall employment, although the share of service sector jobs increases. Evidence suggests that digitalization can help reduce corruption, improve public sector accountability and efficiency, and support financial development. However, digitalization brings new risks (e.g., cybersecurity, business continuity) and challenges to macro-policy making (e.g., monetary policy transmission, changes to the tax base). As attention turns to policies for the recovery, the pandemic will likely serve to accelerate the digital transformation. Policies to enable and leverage greater connectivity include investing in complementary infrastructure and human capital; developing legislative and regulatory frameworks; and supervisory powers to ensure consumer protection and address risks.

Participants:

James E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University and holds a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo (Mexico). Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His joint 1984 Econometrica paper (with Joel Greer and Erik Thorbecke) is one of the most cited papers on poverty. It introduced the FGT Index, which has been used in thousands of studies and was employed in targeting the Progresa CCT program in México. Other research includes work on economic inequality with Amartya Sen; on the distribution of human development with Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva and Miguel Szekely; on multidimensional poverty with Sabina Alkire; and on literacy with Kaushik Basu. Foster regularly teaches introductory and doctoral courses on international development and each spring joins with Professor Basu in presenting an undergraduate course on Game Theory and Strategic Thinking, to which staff and Board members of the World Bank are also invited. Professor Foster is also Research Fellow at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), Department of International Development, Oxford University, and a member of the Human Capital and Economic Opportunity (HCEO) Working Group, Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics, University of Chicago. He also previously served as an Advisory Board Member on the World Bank’s Commission on Global Poverty.

 

Jennifer CookeJennifer G. Cooke is director of the Institute for African Studies at The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs. The Institute serves as central for research, scholarly discussion, and debate on issues relevant to Africa. She is a professor of practice in international affairs, teaching courses on U.S. Policy Toward Africa and Transnational Security Threats in Africa. Cooke joined George Washington University in August 2018, after 18 years as director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she led research and analysis on political, economic, and security dynamics in Africa. While at CSIS, Cooke directed projects on a wide range of African issues, including on violent extremist organizations in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, China’s growing role in Africa, democracy and elections in Nigeria, religion and state authority in Africa, “stress-testing” state stability in Africa, Africa’s changing energy landscape, and more. She is a frequent writer and lecturer on U.S.-Africa policy and has provided briefing, commentary, and testimony to the media, US Congress, AFRICOM leadership and the U.S. military. She has traveled widely in Africa and has been an election observer in Sierra Leone, Ghana, Liberia, Mali, and Nigeria. As a teenager, she lived in Cote d’Ivoire and the Central African Republic. She holds an M.A. in African studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a B.A. in government, magna cum laude, from Harvard University.

 

Andrew TiffinAndrew Tiffin is a senior economist at the IMF, working in the regional studies division of the Fund’s African Department. He is also keenly involved in the effort to incorporate artificial intelligence/machine-learning techniques into the standard analytical toolkit of the Fund. Previously, he has worked on Middle Eastern countries, with a particular interest in refugee issues in Jordan and Lebanon, as well as numerous countries in Europe–he was part of the Italy team during the debt crisis of 2012, and part of the Russia team for the global financial crisis of 2008. Raised in Sydney, Andrew is an Australian national. He received his post-graduate training at Princeton University, where he obtained both a Ph.D. in economics and an M.P.A. in international relations. In addition to his work with the Fund, Andrew has held positions at the Reserve Bank of Australia, and with the Australian Government.

 

Louise Fox Louise Fox is an experienced development economist who specializes in strategies for employment creation, opportunity expansion, economic empowerment, and poverty reduction. She has advised governments in the developed and developing world, international organizations, and philanthropic and non-profit organizations on problem diagnosis, strategies for results, and outcome measurement. She held full-time positions at USAID (as Chief Economist) and at the World Bank. She is currently affiliated with the African Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution and the Blum Center for Developing Economies, University of California, Berkeley. She was previously affiliated with the Overseas Development Institute, where she led a major research project. Louise has published in the areas of inclusive growth, structural transformation, youth employment, the political economy of poverty reduction, gender and women’s economic empowerment, employment, labor markets, and labor regulation, pension reform, reform of child welfare systems, social protection, effective public expenditures in the social sectors, and female-headed households and child welfare. Her most recent book was Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa, published by the World Bank in 2014.

 

Seung Mo Choi is a Senior Economist working on regional surveillance in the IMF’s African Department. He has worked on banking crises, financial market policies, climate change, low-income country issues, and capacity development, including in the IMF’s European Department and in the Institute for Capacity Development. His research has been published in economics and finance journals such as International Economic Review. Prior to joining the IMF, he worked as an Assistant Professor at Washington State University and obtained a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago and a B.A. in economics from Seoul National University.

 

Stephen C. SmithStephen C. Smith is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. In 2018 he was UNICEF Senior Fellow at the UNICEF Office of Research-Innocenti, Florence, Italy. Smith received his Ph.D. in Economics from Cornell University and has been a Fulbright Research Scholar, a Jean Monnet Research Fellow, a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at Brookings, a Fulbright Senior Specialist, a member of the Advisory Council of BRAC USA, and an Associate Editor of the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. He has twice served as Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU. Smith is the co-author with Michael Todaro of Economic Development (12th Edition, Pearson, 2014). He is also author of Ending Global Poverty: A Guide to What Works (paperback edition Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), and co-editor with Jennifer Brinkerhoff and Hildy Teegen of NGOs and the Millennium Development Goals: Citizen Action to Reduce Poverty (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). He is also author or coauthor of about 45 professional journal articles and many other publications. Smith’s recent research has focused on extreme poverty and strategies and programs to address it; and on the economics of adaptation and resilience to climate change in low-income countries, emphasizing autonomous adaptation by households and communities and its effects, and adaptation financing.

 

Preya SharmaPreya Sharma is a senior economist in the African Department of the IMF where she is Special Assistant to the Director. Her research has focused on structural transformation, the future of work, and digitalization in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as emerging market crises and development. Before joining the IMF she was the Head of Emerging Markets at HM Treasury in the UK. She holds a Masters in Public Administration in International Development from the Harvard Kennedy School and a BSc in Economics from the London School of Economics.

 

Esther Chibesa Picture

Esther Chibesa has 20 years of diverse corporate banking experience, serving in various capacities for Citigroup in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia. In her current role, Esther is driven by Africa’s promise, and seeks to realize the opportunities presented at the intersection of technology, regulatory evolution, and inclusive finance. She leads a team in the visioning and execution of a transaction services strategy that addresses the continent’s ongoing financial services transformation. She leads the execution and deployment of innovative treasury & trade finance solutions for multinational corporations, financial institutions and public sector organizations across Sub-Saharan Africa. In her various roles within the organization, she has championed the development of several groundbreaking solutions such as fully integrated tax & fiscal collections systems, receivables digitization solutions, automated mobile money channels and settlement processes, and enhanced, digitized trade and supply chain solutions. She is a past recipient of the prestigious Top 40 Women under 40 (Business Daily Kenya), past member of the Junior Achievement Zambia Board, is an alum of University of Botswana (First Class Honors), and holds an MBA from Heriot Watt Business School, Edinburgh University.