Agricultural Transformation and Farmers’ Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

12:30 pm -2.00pm

Monroe Hall, Seminar Room 321

2115 G St NW, Washington, DC 20052

Why adoption rate of potentially pro table agricultural technologies in Africa remains low is still puzzling. This paper uses a randomized control trial to study Ugandan subsistence smallholders’ decisions to adopt cash crops. A unique way of eliciting farmers price and yield expectations allows us to investigate the role of farmers’ ex-ante beliefs about crop profitability on adoption decisions. We find that the provision of extension services increases oilseeds adoption by 15%, and farmers who underestimate oilseeds price at baseline are the most likely to adopt the new crops. The results suggest that changes in expectations drive agricultural technology take-up.

Paper: “Agricultural Transformation and Farmers’ Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Uganda” by Harounan Kazianga (Oklahoma State University)