Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition
In this paper we present an evaluation of forecasts of a vector of variables of the German economy made by different institutions. Our method permits one to....
Working Papers
This list captures all of the most recent papers that have been uploaded to this website. For a FULL list of 'Working Papers' from IIEP please visit this archived version of our website.
The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policymaking: Economic Crises and Technocratic Governance
How do economic crisis a¤ect national-level policy choices? Are technocratic advisors more likely to enter government during periods of severe economic volatility...
Trade Imbalance: Juggling the Needs of Investors and the Public Interest in TTIP
Albert Einstein taught us that insanity means “doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.” Although investor-state provisions have become
Can Trade Policy Set Information Free
There is a contradiction at the heart of the Internet. Although the Internet has become a platform for trade, trade policies have both enhanced and undermined
by Susan Ariel Aaronson (George Washington University) and Ian Higham (EIRIS)
Does the WTO Help Member States Clean Up?
The WTO says nothing about corruption. This paper uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to examine whether the GATT/WTO, without deliberate intent, helps...
Fiscal Discoveries and Yield Decouplings
The recent Eurozone debt crisis has witnessed sharp decouplings in cross-country bond yields without commensurate shifts in relative fundamentals.
What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?
Although there have been many evaluations of the Fed Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts..
The Global Agglomeration of Multinational Firms
The explosion of multinational activities in recent decades is rapidly transforming the global landscape of industrial production. But are the emerging clusters....
In newly democratized and developing countries, political economy theory expects politicians to use budget de cits to engineer an election-timed boom, known as..
Designing Experiments to Measure Spillover Effects
This paper formalizes the design of experiments intended specifically to study spillover e↵ects. By first randomizing the intensity of treatment within clusters.......
Rural Push, Urban Pull and… Urban Push? New Historical Evidence from Developing Countries
: Standard models explain urbanization by rural-urban migration in response to an (expected) urban-rural wage gap. The Green Revolution and rural poverty......
: Little is known about the extent and forces of urban path dependence in developing countries. Railroad construction in colonial Kenya provides a natural....
This comment on Ball et al (2014) compares their findings on the role of Okun’s Law in forecasts and fully revised data with real-time data for the G7 countries....
: What is the impact of modern transportation technology on economic change in poor countries? Rail construction in colonial Africa provides a natural experiment.....
Satellite images of nighttime lights are commonly used to proxy local economic conditions. Despite their popularity, there are concerns about how accurately they.....
International Currency Exposures, Valuation Effects and the Global Financial Crisis
: Many theories link urbanization with industrialization; in particular, with the production of tradable (and typically manufactured) goods. Wedocument that the......
Water, U.S. Foreign Policy and American Leadership
As part of a research and policy initiative on climate change and water security, The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs........
Urbanization with and without Industrialization
: Many theories link urbanization with industrialization; in particular, with the production of tradable (and typically manufactured) goods. Wedocument that the......
Chinese Provincial Macroeconomic Data Revisions
This paper examines the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions at the provincial level. Various characteristics of the data revisions are identified...........
Cooperatives in a Global Economy: Key Economic Issues, Recent Trends, and Potential for Development
There are many challenges facing the world economy, and the cooperative sector can contribute to solutions for a number of these. We examine potential for.....
Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia
This paper compares the output gap estimates based on a number of different methods. We take advantage of the unique properties of the Mongolian....................
Microfinance and Moneylenders: Long-run Effects of MFIs on Informal Credit Market in Bangladesh
Using two surveys from Bangladesh, this paper provides evidence on the effects of microfinance competition on village moneylender interest rates and...........
Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment
We show that financial innovations that change the collateral capacity of assets in the economy can affect investment even in the absence of any shift ................
As the major players in globalization, firms often operate in states where human rights may not be respected. Without direct intent, firms may be.........