Outward and Upward Construction: A 3D Analysis of the Global Building Stock

October 2023

Remi Jedwab (GWU & NYU)
Thomas Esch (DLR-DFD)
Klaus Deininger (World Bank)
Daniela Palacios-Lopez (DLR-DFD)

IIEP working paper 2023-09

Abstract: The developing world has built structures on an unprecedented scale to accommodate population growth, demographic change, and urbanisation. The horizontal and vertical structuring of the building stock resulting from this “megatrend construction” strongly influences urban and rural poverty, sustainability, resilience, and quality of life. However, due to data constraints, little is known about how and why 3D building patterns vary globally, and in the developing world in particular. This study uncovers novel facts on global 3D building patterns as a result of outward and upward preferences in construction and investigates their relation to the development process. To this end, novel ground-breaking high-resolution data on the area, height, and volume of the global building stock is combined with a unique series of analyses undertaken at different spatial domains. The results show that building stocks per capita increase convexly with income, but that income only explains two-thirds of international volume differences. Additionally, while building upwards systematically drives international volume differences, low-rise buildings, not high-rise buildings, still dominate construction patterns. Also, megatrend construction is not just a phenomenon of megacities, as small settlements account for the largest share of global building volume. Finally, the presented analyses on construction preferences help assess construction needs by providing crowding measures and forecasting volume requirements in major developing economies.

Keywords: World in 3D; Construction; Urbanization; Vertical and Horizontal Expansion; Development Process; Global Socio-Economic Development; Housing; Poverty; Sustainability

The Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countries: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad

August 2023

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University)
Federico Haslop (George Washington University
)
Roman D. Zarate
(World Bank)
Carlos RodríguezCastelán
(World Bank)

IIEP working paper 2023-06

Abstract: Empirical studies of the economic effects of climate change (CC) largely rely on climate anomalies for causal identification purposes. Slow and permanent changes in climate-driven geographical conditions, i.e. CC as defined by the IPCC (2013), have been studied relatively less, especially in Africa which remains the most vulnerable continent to CC. We focus on Lake Chad, which used to be the 11th-largest lake in the world. This African lake the size of El Salvador, Israel, or Massachusetts slowly shrunk by 90% for exogenous reasons between 1963 and 1990. While water supply decreased, land supply increased, generating a priori ambiguous effects. These effects make the increasing global disappearance of lakes a critical trend to study. For Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria, and Niger – 25% of sub-Saharan Africa’s population –, we construct a novel data set tracking population patterns at a fine spatial level from the 1940s to the 2010s. Difference-in-differences show much slower growth in the proximity of the lake, but only after the lake started shrinking. These effects persist two decades after the lake stopped shrinking, implying limited adaptation. Additionally, the negative water supply effects on fishing, farming, and herding outweighed the growth in land supply and other positive effects. A quantitative spatial model used to rationalize these results and estimate aggregate welfare losses taking into account adaptation shows overall losses of about 6%. The model also allows us to study the aggregate and spatial effects of policies related to migration, land use, trade, roads, and cities.

JEL Codes: Q54; Q56; Q15; Q20; R11; R12; O13; O44

Key Words: Climate Change; Aridification; Shrinkage of Lakes; Natural Disasters; Environment; Water Supply; Land Supply; Rural Decline; Agricultural Sectors; Adaptation; Land Use; Africa

Exciting, Boring, and Non-Existent Skylines: Vertical Building Gaps in Global Perspective

September 2022

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University)
Jason Barr (Rutgers University-Newark)

IIEP working paper 2022-11

Abstract: Despite the widespread prevalence and economic importance of tall buildings, little is known about how their patterns vary across space and time. We focus on vertical real estate, aiming to quantify differences across major world regions over time (1950-2020). To do so, we exploit a novel database on the location, height (above 55 meters), and year of construction of nearly all tall buildings in the world. We propose a new methodology to estimate the extent to which some world regions build up more than others given similar economic and geographic conditions, city size distributions, and other features. Our analyses reveal that many skylines may visually appear more prominent than they really are once one includes all tall buildings and core controls, which alters how regions are ranked in terms of tall building stocks. Using results by city size, centrality, height of buildings, and building function, we classify world regions into different groups, finding that international tall building stocks are driven by mostly boring skylines of residential high-rises, and to a lesser extent exciting skylines of skyscrapers and office supertall towers. Finally, land-use regulations and preferences, not historical preservation nor dispersed ownership, likely account for most observed differences.

JEL Codes: R14; R30; R38; R31; R33

Key Words: Buildings Heights; Skyscrapers; Global Real Estate; Housing Supply

Consumption Cities vs. Production Cities: New Considerations and Evidence

June 2022

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University)
Elena Ianchovichina (The World Bank)
Federico Haslop (George Washington University)

IIEP working paper 2022-05

Abstract: Cities dramatically vary in their sectoral composition across the world, possibly lending credence to the theory that some cities are production cities with high employment shares of urban tradables while others are consumption cities with high employment shares of urban non-tradables. A model of structural change highlights three paths leading to the rise of consumption cities: resource rents from exporting fuels and mining products, agricultural exports, and premature deindustrialization. These findings appear to be corroborated using both country- and city-level data. Compared to cities in industrialized countries, cities of similar sizes in resource-rich and deindustrializing countries have lower shares of employment in manufacturing, tradable services and the formal sector, and higher shares of employment in non-tradables and the informal sector. Results on the construction of “vanitous” tall buildings provide additional evidence on the relationship between resource exports and consumption cities. Finally, the evidence suggests that having mostly consumption cities might have economic implications for a country.

JEL Codes: O11; E24; E26; O13; O14; O18; R1; R12

Key Words: Structural Change; Urbanization; Consumption Cities; Macro-Development Economics; Industrialization; Natural Resources; Deindustrialization; Construction

Scars of Pandemics from Lost Schooling and Experience: Aggregate Implications and Gender Differences Through the Lens of COVID-19

January 2022

Remi Jedwab  (George Washington University)
Roberto Samaniego (George Washington University)
Paul Romer (NYU Stern)
Asif M. Islam (World Bank)

IIEP working paper 2022-02

Abstract: Pandemic shocks disrupt human capital accumulation through schooling and work experience. This study quantifies the long-term economic impact of these disruptions in the case of COVID-19, focusing on countries at different levels of development and using returns to education and experience by college status that are globally estimated using 1,084 household surveys across 145 countries. The results show that both lost schooling and experience contribute to significant losses in global learning and output. Developed countries incur greater losses than developing countries, because they have more schooling to start with and higher returns to experience. The returns to education and experience are also separately estimated for men and women, to explore the differential effects by gender of the COVID-19 pandemic. Surprisingly, while we uncover gender differences in returns to education and schooling, gender differences in the impact of COVID-19 are small and short-lived, with a loss in female relative income of only $2.5$ percent or less mainly due to the greater severity of the employment shock on impact. These findings might challenge some of the ongoing narratives in policy circles. The methodology employed in this study is easily implementable for future pandemics.

JEL Codes: O11; O12; O15; E24; J11; J16; J17; J31

Key Words: Pandemics; Human Capital; Returns to Education; Returns to Experience; Gender; Female Relative Income; Labor Markets; Development Accounting; COVID-19

Killer Cities and Industrious Cities? New Data and Evidence on 250 Years of Urban Growth

January 2022

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University)
Marina Gindelsky (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

IIEP working paper 2022-01

Abstract: In the historical literature, cities of the Industrial Revolution are portrayed as having a demographic penalty: killer cities with high death rates and industrious cities with low birth rates. To econometrically test this, we construct a novel data set of almost 2,000 crude demographic rates for 142 large cities in 35 countries for 1700-1950. Mortality actually decreased faster than fertility during the Industrial Revolution era and rates of natural increase rose in the cities of industrializing countries, especially large cities. This implies a declining, not rising, demographic penalty thanks to the Industrial Revolution. To explain the puzzle, we posit that negative health and industriousness effects of industrial urbanization might have been outweighed by positive effects of increased income and life expectancy.

JEL Codes: N90, N30, N10, R00, J10

Key Words: Urban Demographic Penalty, Killer Cities, Industrious Cities, Mortality, Fertility, Natural Increase, Industrial Revolution, Urban Growth

Economic Effects and Policy Responses to Climate Change and Natural Disasters

Thursday, December 2nd, 2021
9 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST

The objective of this conference was to discuss recent policy research related to the economics of climate change. One set of studies analyzes the global economic and spatial effects of climate change and different policy options to mitigate its negative economic consequences, especially those related to migration, trade, taxation and innovation policy. Another set of studies focuses on the localized economic impacts of climate change and natural disasters in Africa, and corresponding policy options to promote mitigation and resilience, including technologies, infrastructure and fiscal policy. The conference was divided into two sessions. First there was be a round table discussion with two 25-minute presentations by two keynote speakers, followed by 10-minute feedback by a discussant, and 20 minutes of Q&A. Second, authors presented their research papers for 18 minutes, followed by 5-minute feedback by a discussant, and 7 minutes of Q&A.

This event was jointly organized by the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice, the Office of the Director for Regional Integration for Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa of the World Bank, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University.

Welcome Remarks

Picture of Boutheina GuermaziBoutheina Guermazi (Director, Regional Integration in Western & Central Africa, Eastern & Southern Africa, and Middle East & North Africa Regions) is the World Bank Director for Regional Integration for Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa. Prior to her current appointment, Ms. Guermazi was the Director of Digital Development (DD) Department of the Infrastructure Practice Group from August 2018 to October 2021, heading a global team that worked on building digital economies in developing countries, to drive shared prosperity and reduced poverty. She also served as the Practice Manager of Digital Development covering Africa and the Middle East regions, and  as Lead Operations Officer in the Regional Integration Unit of the Africa region. During her tenure, she has written and published articles and book chapters on trade law, telecommunications policy, and regulatory reform. Before joining the World Bank, Ms. Guermazi was Assistant Professor at the University of Law and Political and Social Sciences of Tunis, and a Telecommunications consultant to the Sector Reform Unit at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). Ms. Guermazi holds a Ph.D. in Telecommunications Law and Policy from the Faculty of Law at McGill University, Canada; an L.L.M. in International Law from Indiana University, USA; and a Bachelor’s Degree in Public Law from the University of Tunis, Tunisia. She held a Fulbright Scholarship and was a research scholar at the University of Michigan (USA), the Social Science Research Council (USA), and the Center of Studies for Regulated Industries (Canada).

Roundtable

Moderator:

Picture of Carolina Sánchez-PáramoCarolina Sánchez-Páramo (Global Director, Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank), a Spanish national, is currently the Global Director of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice (GP) at the World Bank. Prior to this assignment, she was the Poverty and Equity GP Practice Manager in the Europe and Central Asia region. Carolina has worked on operations, policy advice and analytical activities in Eastern Europe, Latin America and South Asia, and was part of the core team working on the WDR2012, “Gender Equality and Development”. Her main areas of interest and expertise include labor economics, poverty and distributional analysis, gender equality and welfare impacts of public policy. She has led reports on poverty and equity, labor markets and economic growth in several countries, as well as social sector operations. She has published articles in refereed journals and edited books on the topics described above. Carolina has a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.

Keynote Speakers:

Picture of Solomon HsiangSolomon Hsiang (Berkeley) directs the Global Policy Laboratory at Berkeley, where his team is integrating econometrics, spatial data science, and machine learning to answer questions that are central to rationally managing planetary resources–such as the economic value of the global climate, how the UN can fight wildlife poaching, the effectiveness of treaties governing the oceans, and whether satellites and AI can be combined to monitor the entire planet in real time. Hsiang earned a BS in Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science and a BS in Urban Studies and Planning from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and he received a PhD in Sustainable Development from Columbia University. He was a Post-Doctoral Fellow in Applied Econometrics at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and a Post-Doctoral Fellow in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy at Princeton University. Hsiang is currently the Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, a Co-Director at the Climate Impact Lab, Research Associate at the NBER, a National Geographic Explorer, and an Andrew Carnegie Fellow. Hsiang is currently the Lead Author of the Economics chapter for the Fifth National Climate Assessment. In 2020, he was awarded the President’s Medal by the Geological Society of America. View his slides here.

Picture of Esteban Rossi-HansbergEsteban Rossi-Hansberg is the Glen A. Lloyd Distinguished Service Professor in the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics at the University of Chicago (since 2021). Previously, he was the Theodore A. Wells ’29 Professor of Economics at Princeton University. Prior to Princeton, he was an Assistant Professor at Stanford University. He earned a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 2002. His research specializes in international trade, regional and urban economics, as well as growth and organizational economics. He has published extensively in all the major journals in economics. In 2007, he received the prestigious Alfred Sloan Research Fellowship and in 2010, he received the August Lösch Prize and the Geoffrey Hewings Award. He is an elected fellow of the Econometric Society since 2017 and won the Robert E. Lucas Jr. Prize in 2019. View his slides here.

Discussant:

Picture of Richard DamaniaRichard Damania (Chief Economist in the Sustainable Development Vice Presidency, World Bank) is the Chief Economist of the Sustainable Development Practice Group.  He has held several positions in the World Bank including as Senior Economic Advisor in the Water Practice, Lead Economist in the Africa Region’s Sustainable Development Department, in the South Asia and Latin America and Caribbean Regions of the World Bank.  His work has spanned across multiple sectors and has helped the World Bank become an acknowledged thought-leader on matters relating to  environment, water and the economy.  Prior to joining the World Bank he held positions in academia and has published extensively with over 100 papers in scientific journals. View his slides here.

Academic Presentations

Moderator:

Picture of Rémi JedwabRémi Jedwab (GWU) is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics. 

Speakers:

Picture of Román David ZárateRomán David Zárate (World Bank) is an economist at the Trade and Integration unit of the World Bank’s Development Research Group (DEC-RG). He received a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. His research interests are in international trade, urban economics, and development economics. He primarily focuses on how different forms of market integration impact aggregate welfare and productivity in developing countries. View his slides here.

 

 

 

 

Picture of Kelsey JackKelsey Jack (UCSB)’s research is at the intersection of environmental and development economics, with a focus on how individuals, households, and communities decide to use natural resources and provide public goods. Much of her research uses field experiments to test theory and new policy innovations. She has done research in numerous countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, and has ongoing work in South Africa, Ghana, Zambia and Niger. Kelsey co-chair’s the Environment and Energy sector at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at MIT (J-PAL), directs the Poverty Alleviation group at the Environmental Markets Lab at UCSB (emLab), and is an associate editor at the American Economic Review. View her slides here.

Picture of Jonathan DingelJonathan Dingel (Chicago) is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. His research agenda focuses on the spatial distribution of economic activities across neighborhoods, cities, and countries. He tries to understand the substantial variation in the amount and nature of economic activity across space. Recently, he examined the scope for telecommuting, using satellite images to define cities, and how the global climate affects agricultural trade. View his slides here.

 

 

Picture of Marshall BurkeMarshall Burke (Stanford) is associate professor in the Department of Earth System Science and Deputy Director at the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University, and Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on social and economic impacts of environmental change, and on measuring and understanding economic livelihoods across the developing world. His work regularly appears in both economics and scientific journals, including recent publications in NatureScience, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and The Lancet.  He holds a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from UC Berkeley, and a BA in International Relations from Stanford. He is also co-founder of AtlasAI, a start-up using satellites and machine learning to measure livelihoods. View his slides here.

Discussants:

Picture of Klaus DesmetKlaus Desmet (SMU) is the Altshuler Professor of Cities, Regions and Globalization at Southern Methodist University, Research Associate at NBER and Research Fellow at CEPR. He holds an MSc in Business and Engineering from the Université catholique de Louvain and a PhD in Economics from Stanford University. Before moving to SMU, he was Professor at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. His research focuses on regional economics, economic growth, political economy and international trade. His work has appeared in journals such as the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the Journal of Economic Theory and the Journal of Development conomics. In 2019 he was the co-recipient of the Robert E. Lucas Jr. Prize. View his slides here.

Picture of Sheetal SekhriSheetal Sekhri (UVA) is a tenured associate professor in the department of Economics at the University of Virginia. She received her PhD from Brown University. As a development economist, most of her research is in two thematic areas. She uses theoretical insights and data to answer questions related to causes and consequences of water scarcity and pollution. She also addresses issues related to gender-based violence. Her other interests are higher education, skilled labor markets, and state capacity in developing countries. Her work often uses primary datasets that she generates based on surveys she conducts and is informed by insights from various disciplines. She has conducted extensive field work in India.

Picture of Mariaflavia HarariMariaflavia (Nina) Harari (Penn – Wharton) is an Assistant Professor of Real Estate at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, specializing in urban economics and development economics. Her research agenda is centered on urbanization in developing countries. Her research was featured on the American Economic Review. Dr. Harari holds a B.A. and a M.Sc. in Economics and Social Sciences from Bocconi University and a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. View her slides here.

 

 

 

Picture of Paulina OliviaPaulina Oliva (USC) is an Associate Professor in the Economics Department of the University of Southern California. She received my PhD in Economics from UC, Berkeley in 2009. She specializes in the fields of Environmental Economics and Development; and specifically, on the relationship between air pollution and health and on environmental policy effectiveness in the developing world. Her work uses a variety of microeconometric techniques to study individual incentives and human impacts of air pollution. View her slides here.

Cities Without Skylines: Worldwide Building-Height Gaps and their Possible Determinants and Implications

August 2021

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University)
Jason Barr (Rutgers University)
Jan Brueckner (University of California)

IIEP working paper 2021-15

Abstract: There is a large literature on U.S. cities measuring the extent and stringency of land-use regulations and how regulatory and geographical constraints affect important outcomes such as housing prices and economic growth. This paper is the first to study the global extent and impact of regulatory and other constraints by estimating what we call building-height gaps. Using a novel data set on the year of construction and heights of tall buildings around the world, we compare the total height of a country’s stock of tall buildings to what the total height would have been if supply was more elastic, based on parameters from a benchmark set of countries. These gaps are larger for richer countries and for residential buildings than for commercial buildings in such countries. The gaps are driven by under-building in central areas of larger cities. These gaps are not compensated by tall building construction in peripheral areas of cities or less stringent limits on outward expansion beyond the existing boundaries of the cities. Countries with older, historic structures have larger gaps, likely due to more stringent height regulations and dispersed ownership that inhibits land assembly. Lastly, the gaps correlate strongly with international measures of housing prices, sprawl, congestion, and pollution.

JEL Codes: R3, R5, O18, O50

Key Words: International Buildings Heights; Land Use Regulations; Geographical Constraints; Housing Supply; Housing Prices; Sprawl; Congestion; Pollution

The Spatial Economic Effects of Conflict

Wednesday, June 9, 2021
9 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EDT
via Webex

This workshop showcased the most recent advances in the field of economics on conflict with a particular focus on the local and spillover effects of conflict, conflict and spatial poverty traps, and policies to mitigate potential negative effects of conflict such as infrastructure investment. While the policy focus of this workshop was on Africa, the presentations included a larger geographical coverage. The workshop was divided into two sessions. First there was a round table discussion with two presentations by the main keynote speakers, followed by a Q&A session. Second, authors presented their research papers, followed by feedback by a discussant and a Q&A session.

This event was jointly organized by the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice, the Office of the Director for Regional Integration for Africa of the World Bank, and the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University.

Welcome Remarks

Deborah Wetzel, a U.S. national with more than 25 years of experience in development work around the world, is the World Bank Director for Regional Integration for Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa. Prior to her current appointment, Wetzel was the Senior Director for Governance from April 2016 to April 2019. She also served as the Director of Strategy and Operations for the Middle East and North Africa Region, as well as Country Director for Brazil, from March 2012 until July 2015. Previous roles include World Bank Group’s Chief of Staff to the World Bank President from 2010 to 2012, and Director for Governance and Public Sector, where she directed the Bank’s work on taxation, public expenditures, decentralization, public sector reform and strengthening, governance and anti-corruption. From 2006 to 2009, she led the World Bank’s Economic and Public Sector Programs in Brazil, based in Brasilia. During that period, she developed numerous programs with state and federal governments to help improve the effectiveness of public expenditures and achieve better results. Wetzel has a Doctorate in Economics from the University of Oxford and a Masters in International Studies from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies. Her BA is from Smith College. She is the author of publications on fiscal decentralization, public finance, governance, and sub-national affairs.

 

Roundtable

Moderator:

Carolina Sánchez-Páramo, a Spanish national, is currently the Global Director of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice (GP) at the World Bank. Prior to this assignment, she was the Poverty and Equity GP Practice Manager in the Europe and Central Asia region. Carolina has worked on operations, policy advice and analytical activities in Eastern Europe, Latin America and South Asia, and was part of the core team working on the WDR2012, “Gender Equality and Development”. Her main areas of interest and expertise include labor economics, poverty and distributional analysis, gender equality and welfare impacts of public policy. She has led reports on poverty and equity, labor markets and economic growth in several countries, as well as social sector operations. She has published articles in refereed journals and edited books on the topics described above. Carolina has a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.

Keynote Speakers:

Chris Blattman is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at The University of Chicago’s Pearson Institute and Harris Public Policy. He is an economist and political scientist who studies poverty, violence and crime in developing countries. He has designed and evaluated strategies for tackling poverty, including cash transfers to the poorest. Much of his work is with the victims and perpetrators of crime and violence, testing the link between poverty and violence. His recent work looks at other sources of and solutions to violence. These solutions range from behavioral therapy to social norm change and local-level state building. He has worked mainly in Colombia, Liberia, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Chicago’s South Side. Dr. Blattman was previously faculty at Columbia and Yale Universities, and holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley and a Master’s in Public Administration and International Development (MPA/ID) from the Harvard Kennedy School. He chairs the Peace & Recovery sector at Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) and the Crime, Violence and Conflict initiative at MIT’s Poverty Action Lab (JPAL).

Dominic Rohner (PhD, University of Cambridge) is a Professor and co-director of the economics department at HEC Lausanne, the Faculty of Business and Economics of the University of Lausanne. He is also Associate Editor at the Economic Journal, the PI of a European Research Council grant, the leader of the CEPR Research and Policy Network on “Policies for Peace”, a member of the Swiss National Research Council, and co-leader of the E4S group on “Evidence-based environmental policies”. Prior to joining UNIL, he held positions at the universities of York and Zurich. His research focuses on political and development economics, has won several prizes and has been widely published in journals such as American Economic Review, Econometrica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, and PNAS.

 

Academic Presentations

Speakers:

Nathan Nunn is Frederic E. Abbe Professor of Economics at Harvard University. Professor Nunn’s primary research interests are in political economy, economic history, economic development, cultural economics, and international trade. He is an NBER Faculty Research Fellow, a Research Fellow at BREAD, a Faculty Associate at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs (WCFIA), and a Fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) in the Boundaries, Membership & Belonging program. One stream of Professor Nunn’s research focuses on the historical and dynamic process of economic development. In particular, he has studied the factors that shape differences in the evolution of institutions and cultures across societies. He has published research that studies the historical process of a wide range of factors that are crucial for economic development, including distrust, gender norms, religiosity, norms of rule-following, conflict, immigration, state formation, and support for democracy. His current research interests lie in better understanding the importance of local culture and context  for economic policies, particularly in developing countries.

Rémi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Maria Micaela Sviatschi is currently an Assistant Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. She is also an affiliate at the CESifo Research Network, NBER development and political economy group, the African School of Economics and the International Crisis Group. Her research interests are labor and development economics, with a focus on human capital, gender-violence and crime.  One strand of her research explores how children start a criminal career in drug trafficking and gangs as well as the consequences of organized crime on economic development and state capacity. In particular, she has worked on the development of criminal skills in drug trafficking organizations in Peru and gangs in El Salvador. In addition, she studies how criminal organizations such as gangs and drug trafficking groups affect household’s behavior and state presence in the areas they control. Another strand of her research studies the role of state capacity to deter and improve service-delivery to reduce gender-based violence. In particular, studying the effects of women police officers in Peru and police street patrolling in India. In addition to this research, she has ongoing collaborative research projects in the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Colombia, Mozambique, Jordan, Bangladesh and the US.

Mathias Thoenig is a Professor of Economics at the School of Business and Economics (HEC) at the University of Lausanne, a CEPR Research Fellow in the international trade and macro programs and an elected Council Member of the European Economic Association. He is a Distinguished Scholar at IMD Business School and a Professorial Fellow at Queen Mary University of London. Mathias Thoenig received his Ph.D. from University Paris-1 Sorbonne and his B.A. in engineering from Ecole Polytechnique. He has held visiting appointments at International Monetary Fund, MIT, SciencesPo Paris, University of British Columbia and University Pompeu Fabra. He also served on the editorial boards of Journal of European Economic Association and International Economics. His research interests include development, international trade and political economy of conflicts and migration. He has published and forthcoming papers in several international journals, including, among others: American Economic Review, Econometrica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, Harvard Business Review, Journal of European Economic Association. He has been awarded an ERC Starting Grant in 2013 for his work on the role of distrust and grievances in ethnic conflicts.

Discussants:

Roland Hodler is Professor of Economics at the University of St.Gallen and Research Fellow at CEPR, CESifo and OxCarre. His research covers topics in development and political economics. His interests include how ethnic diversity, natural resources and foreign aid influence economic and human development as well as conflict, corruption and favoritism. His research has been published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, the Journal of Development Economics, the Journal of Public Economics, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences; and covered by the BBC, the Economist, the Guardian, Le Monde, NZZ, and the Washington Post. He is also a member of the Bayelsa State Oil & Environmental Commission.

Mathieu Couttenier has obtained his PhD in Economics in 2011 at the University Paris 1 Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics. Before to join the Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon as Professor, he was post-doc at the University of Lausanne and assistant professor at the University of Geneva. He was also visiting researcher at the department of political sciences at Stanford and at the economic department at Sciences Po Paris. His research is filled with interactions between economics and political sciences but also cultural, institutional and geographical issues. He focuses on microeconomic questions, in particular in the fields of applied political economy and economic development. His main research interests are in the understanding of violence and civil wars. He has published many academic papers on the role played by income shocks, natural resources or climate on the diffusion of conflicts over space and time. Some of his present research agenda also studies the role of natural resources in the local economic development. He has published in many leading peer-refereed journals, such as the American Economic Review, the Journal of the European Economic Association, the Economic Journal, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Journal of Development Economics and the Journal of Comparative Economics.

Elena Esposito is Assistant Professor at HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne. She is an applied economist with research interests in the fields of development economics, economic growth, political economy, and economic history. Elena Esposito earned a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Bologna in 2014 and she joined the department of Economics at the European University Institute (Italy) as “Max Weber Fellow”. She spent research periods at the departments of economics at universities in the USA. She also worked as an economic researcher and consultant for several international organizations, participating to projects with UNICEF, the European Commission and the World Bank, among others.

Eoin McGuirk is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Neubauer Faculty Fellow at Tufts University. His research interests are in development and political economics, with a particular focus on the causes and consequences of political violence and social divisions. In his research, he has examined how variation in world food prices can affect the type and location of conflict events in Africa, and how politicians are more likely to perpetuate conflict when they are sheltered from its costs. Most of his research employs natural experiments in order to identify causal relationships. He has Ph.D. in Economics from Trinity College, University of Dublin, and was a Fulbright Scholar at the University of California, Berkeley.

Recovering from Pandemic Recessions

Friday, November 20, 2020
WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

In this panel event, Dr. John Rogers, Senior Adviser at the Federal Reserve Board, and Michael Song, Professor of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, will share their respective research investigating economic recessions and recoveries during modern health crises and China’s economic experience during the current pandemic.

Examining historical episodes, John Rogers’ latest work finds that during the previous modern health crises, real GDP growth fell by around three percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth was rapid, but output was still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers was higher and exhibited more persistence, and there was significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment were felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Affected countries’ consumption declined, investment dropped sharply, and international trade plummeted. Bounce-back in these expenditure categories is also rapid but not by enough to restore pre-shock trends. These estimates are viewed as a lower bound for the global economic effects of COVID-19.

Zooming in on the effect of the pandemic and lockdown policy on Chinese economy, Michael will first show his estimates on the economic impacts of COVID-19 using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data from China. The largest economic impacts are from COVID shocks to Wuhan and Beijing, knocking about three percentage points off the national real income. If all Chinese cities had containment policies that responded to local pandemic severity in the same way as those in Hubei did, China’s first-quarter real income would have been reduced by half. He will then use firm registration records, online sales and job posting data to show the recovery of Chinese economy and its structural patterns.

Meet the Speakers:

Picture of John RogersJohn Rogers is a Senior Adviser in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. He received his BA from the University of Delaware and PhD in economics from the University of Virginia. John was on the economics department faculty at Penn State University, where he rose to Associate Professor in 1996. He began working on the Fed’s multi-country model in the Trade & Financial Studies section, and became section chief in 2003. John is the author of several academic publications in international finance and macroeconomics. He continues to teach those subjects as an adjunct professor in the economics department at Georgetown University. John is the father of five children.

Picture of Michael SongMichael Song is a professor at the Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), an outstanding fellow of the Faculty of Social Science at CUHK, a co-director of CUHK-Tsinghua Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy and a distinguished visiting professor at the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University. His research focuses on Chinese economy and macroeconomics. He published papers on leading academic journals including American Economic Review and Econometrica. His paper “Growing like China” won Sunyefang Economic Science Award and the Best Paper Award for Chinese Young Economists. Before joining CUHK, Prof. Song was an associate professor of economics at Chicago Booth. Prof. Song is also a co-editor of China Economic Review, an associate editor of Econometrica and Journal of European Economic Association and an academic committee member of China’s Economics Foundation.

Meet the Moderator:

Picture of Remi JedwabRémi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Chinese Translation:

乔治华盛顿大学国际经济政策研究所 (The Institute for International Economic Policy) (IIEP) 欢迎您参加中国经济发展和中美经济关系的第十三届年会。今年的研讨会将以用虚拟方式进行。这个活动是全英文的。这次会议是由Sigur亚洲研究中心和乔治华盛顿国际商业教育与研究中心共同主办的。

 

在这次小组讨论会上,美联储高级顾问Dr. John Rogers 和香港中文大学宋铮(Michael Song) 教授将分享他们各自在有关现代健康危机导致的经济衰退和复苏和中国在Covid-19疫情期间经济走向的研究成果。

 

Dr. John Rogers 最近的研究发现在先前健康危机期间,疫情爆发当年,被影响的国家的实际国内生产总值相对于未受到影响的国家跌幅达到3%。实际国内生产总值反弹很快,但五年后产量仍然比爆发年前低。受教育程度较低的工人失业率持续偏高,并且表现出更大的持久性;女性失业持久性也明显比男性高。对在疫情第一年提供大量政府资助,尤其医疗方面支出,的国家,实际国内生产总值和失业影响偏小。受到影响的国家消费,投资,和国际贸易都跌幅很大,虽然反弹迅速,但仍然不足以恢复爆发年前的趋势。此研究认为以往健康危机对经济的影响是此次COVID-19 对全球经济影响的下限。

 

专注于目前Covid-19疫情与隔离政策对中国经济的影响,宋教授的工作指出隔离对经济,包括从人口和货物流动到总产出,都带来剧烈影响。消费支出的大小和结构也有很大的调整。隔离的时间结束以后,制造业恢复迅速,而用电量,零售额和餐饮收入则表现较大跨区域异质性,服务业产出的也受到更大影响。

 

演讲者:

 

宋铮 (Michael Song)

宋铮是香港中文大学经济系的教授,社会科学院的杰出学者, 清华大学-香港中文大学中国经济联合研究中心的主任,和清华大学经济管理学院杰出访问教授。他的研究领域为中国经济和宏观经济学。宋教授的论文在顶级学术期刊,包括American Economic Review 和 Econometrica,发表。他的论文 “Growing like China” 获得孙冶方经济学奖和中国青年经济学家优秀论文奖。在加入香港中文大学之前, 宋铮曾任芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学副教授。他的学术兼职还包括 China Economic Review 联合主编,Econometrica 和 Journal of European Economic Association 副主编, 中国经济学基金会学术委员会委员等。

 

John Rogers

John Rogers 是美联储国际金融部的高级顾问。他拥有德拉瓦大学 (University of Delaware) 的政治和经济学士学位,以及弗吉尼亚大学 (University of Virginia) 的经济学博士学位。 Dr. Rogers曾在宾夕法尼亚州立大学 (Pennsylvania State University) 经济系任教,并于1996年升任副教授。他在美联储的贸易与金融研究部门研究美联储的多国模型,并于2003年成为该部门负责人。 Dr. Rogers 是诸多国际金融和宏观经济学方面学术出版物的作者。目前Dr. Rogers 在乔治敦大学 (Georgetown University) 经济学系担任兼职教授。他也是五个小孩的爸爸。

Epidemics, inequality and poverty in preindustrial and early industrial times

August 2020

Guido Alfani (Bocconi University, Dondena Centre, IGIER, and Stone Center for Research on Socio-Economic Inequaltiy)

IIEP working paper 2020-16

Abstract: *This paper is part of a Symposium organized by Dr. Remi Jedwab of the George Washington University that will appear in the Journal of Economic Literature.* Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by Covid-19 prompts us to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually believed to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention. However, the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This article covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, from Justinian’s Plague of 540-41 to the last great European plagues of the seventeenth century, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution towards the poor, or extermination of the poor. It concludes by recalling the historical connection between the progressive weakening and spacing in time of lethal epidemics and improvements in life expectancy, and by discussing how epidemics affected inequality in health and living standards.

 

JEL Codes: D31, D63, I14, I30, J11, N30, N33

Key Words: epidemics; inequality; poverty

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Lessons for COVID-19

August 2020

Brian Beach (Vanderbilt University and NBER), Karen Clay (Carnegie Mellon University and NBER), Martin Saavedra (Oberlin College)

IIEP working paper 2020-15

Abstract: *This paper is part of a Symposium organized by Dr. Remi Jedwab of the George Washington University that will appear in the Journal of Economic Literature.* This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 infuenza pandemic, with a particular focus on topics that have seen a renewed interest because of COVID-19. We begin by providing an overview of key contextual and epidemiological details as well as the data that are available to researchers. We then examine the effects on mortality, fertility, and the economy in the short and medium run. The role of nonpharmaceutical interventions in shaping those outcomes is discussed throughout. We then examine longer-lasting health consequences and their impact on human capital accumulation and socioeconomic status. Throughout the paper we highlight important areas for future work.

 

JEL Codes: I10, N0, J10, J24

Key Words: Pandemics; 1918 Influenza; COVID-19; epidemics

The Economic Impact of the Black Death

June 2020

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University), Noel D. Johnson (George Mason University), Mark Koyama (George Mason University)

IIEP working paper 2020-14

Abstract: *This paper is part of a Symposium organized by Dr. Remi Jedwab of the George Washington University that will appear in the Journal of Economic Literature.* The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short-run and the long-run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long-run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe towards the Northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in Western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out.

 

JEL Codes: N00, N13, I15, I14, J11, O10, O43

Key Words: Pandemics; Black Death; Institutions; Cities; Urbanization; Malthusian Theory; Demography; Long-Run Growth; Middle Ages; Europe; Asia;

Pandemics, Poverty, and Social Cohesion: Lessons from the Past and Possible Solutions for COVID-19

June 2020

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University), Amjad M. Khan (The World Bank),Richard Damania (The World Bank), Jason Russ (The World Bank), Esha D. Zaveri (The World Bank)

IIEP working paper 2020-13

Abstract: Since COVID-19 broke out, there has been renewed interest in understanding the economic and social dynamics of historical and more recent pandemics and epidemics, from the plagues of Antiquity to modern-day outbreaks like Ebola. These events can have significant impacts on the interplay between poverty and social cohesion, i.e. how different groups in society interact and cooperate to survive and prosper. To that effect, this survey paper provides an overview of how social responses to past pandemics and epidemics were determined by the epidemiological and non-epidemiological characteristics of these outbreaks, with a particular focus on the scapegoating and persecution of minority groups, including migrants. More precisely, we discuss existing theories as well as historical and quantitative studies, and highlight the cases and contexts where pandemics may lead to milder or more severe forms of scapegoating. Finally, we conclude with a summary of priorities for future research on pandemics and social cohesion and discuss the possible effects and policy implications of COVID-19.

 

JEL Codes: O15, O18, I15, I19, J61, J71

Key Words: COVID-19; Pandemics; Epidemics; Disasters; Social Cohesion; Stigmatization; Minority Persecution; Conflict; Poverty; Migration; Social Capital; Trust

Medieval Cities Through the Lens of Urban Economic Theories

May 2020

Remi Jedwab (George Washington University), Noel D. Johnson (George Mason University), and Mark Koyama (George Mason University)

IIEP working paper 2020-9

Abstract: We draw on theories and empirical findings from urban economics to explore and explain patterns of city growth in the Middle Ages (c. 800-1500 CE). We discuss how agricultural development and physical geography determined the location and size of cities during the medieval period. We also consider the relative importance of economies of scale, agglomeration, and human capital spillovers in medieval cities and discuss how their growth was limited by disamenities and constraints on mobility. We discuss how medieval cities responded to shocks such as the Black Death and describe how institutions became increasingly important in determining their trajectories. Avenues for future research are also laid out.

 

JEL Codes: R11; R12; R19; N9; N93; N95

Key Words: Medieval Era; City Growth; Urbanization; Food Surplus Hypothesis; Agglomeration Effects; Labor Mobility; Pandemics; Institutions; Europe; Asia

Will Covid-19 Raise Inequality? Evidence from Past Epidemics and Crises

Tuesday, May 26, 2020
12:30 pm – 2:00 pm EDT
WebEx

We are pleased to invite you to the second webinar of the “Facing Inequality” series, hosted by the Institute for International Economic Policy. This virtual series focuses on current and emerging inequality issues in the U.S. and around the globe – especially those revealed by the current COVID-19 pandemic. It brings together historians, economists, sociologists, political scientists, and epidemiologists, within the academy and without, to present work and discuss ideas that can facilitate new interdisciplinary approaches to the problem of inequality. This is a platform for dialogue and debate. We invite you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.
 
The second event, “Will Covid-19 Raise Inequality? Evidence from Past Epidemics and Crises”, features Prakash Loungani and Jonathan D. Ostry. Major epidemics in this century, such as SARS and H1N1, have raised income inequality and disproportionately hurt employment prospects of people with low skills and education levels. What impacts will the COVID-19 pandemic have on inequality in the near term? And how will inequality evolve over the longer-term as governments act to mend the disruptions to globalization and unwind the build-up in their public debts? The talk will draw on the authors’ recent work (with Davide Furceri) on the distributional impacts of epidemics and their book on other drivers of inequality such as austerity and financial globalization. Discussants Lucia Rafanelli and Remi Jedwab will provide commentary from the perspectives of political science and economic history, respectively.
 
The “Facing Inequality” series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director James Foster, Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Faculty Affiliate Trevor Jackson, Assistant Professor of History. The series is co-sponsored by the GW Interdisciplinary Inequality Series, co-organized by Prof. Jackson from the Department of History and Prof. Bryan Stuart from the Department of Economics.

About the Speakers:

Prakash Loungani is Assistant Director and Senior Personnel Manager in the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office. He is a co-author of Confronting Inequality: How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth (Columbia University Press, 2019). Previously, he headed the Development Macroeconomics Division in the IMF’s Research Department and was co-chair of the IMF’s Jobs and Growth working group from 2011-15. He is an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University’s Carey School of Business, a member of the Research Program in Forecasting at George Washington Univeristy, and Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a think-tank based in Rabat, Morocco.

Jonathan D. Ostry is Deputy Director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund and a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). His recent responsibilities include leading staff teams on capital account management and financial globalization issues; fiscal sustainability issues; and the nexus between income inequality and economic growth. Past positions include leading the division that produces the IMF’s flagship multilateral surveillance publication, the World Economic Outlook. He is the author of a number of books on international macro policy issues and numerous articles in scholarly journals. His most recent books include Taming the Tide of Capital Flows (MIT Press, 2017) and Confronting Inequality (Columbia University Press, 2018).

With James Foster, Lucia Rafanelli, Remi Jedwab, and Trevor Jackson

Co-sponsored by the GW Inequality Series

Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development

February 2020

Remi Jedwab, Asif Islam, Paul Romer, and Robert Samaniego

IIEP working paper 2020-3

Abstract: In this paper, we: (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 household surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that returns to work experience are strongly correlated with economic development – workers in developed countries appear to accumulate twice more human capital at work than workers in developing countries; and (iii) use a simple accounting framework to find that the contribution of work experience to human capital accumulation and economic development might be as important as the contribution of education itself.

JEL: O11; O12; O15; O47; E24; J11; J31

Keywords: Returns to Work Experience; Returns to Education; Human Capital Accumulation; Economic Development; Labor Markets; Development Accounting

Cities of Workers, Children or Seniors? Age Structure and Economic Growth in a Global Cross-Section of Cities

August 2019

Remi Jedwab, Daniel Pereira, and Mark Roberts

IIEP working paper 2019-13

Abstract: A large literature documents the positive influence of a city’s skill structure on its rate of economic growth. By contrast, the effect of a city’s age structure on its economic growth has been a hitherto largely neglected area of research. We hypothesize that cities with more working-age adults are likely to grow faster than cities with more children or seniors and set out the potential channels through which such differential growth may occur. Using data from a variety of historical and contemporary sources, we show that there exists marked variation in the age structure of the world’s largest cities, both across cities and over time. We then study how age structure affects economic growth for a global cross-section of mega-cities. Using various identification strategies, we find that mega-cities with higher dependency ratios – i.e. with more children and/or seniors per working-age adult – grow significantly slower. Such effects are particularly pronounced for cities with high shares of children. This result appears to be mainly driven by the direct negative effects of a higher dependency ratio on the size of the working-age population and the indirect effects on work hours and productivity for working age adults within a city.

JEL: R10; R11; R19; J11; J13; J14; O11; N30

Keywords: Urbanization; Cities; Age Structure; Dependency Ratios; Children; Ageing; Demographic Cycles; Agglomeration Effects; Human Capital; Growth; Development

How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries

August 2019

Remi Jedwab, Prakash Loungani, and Anthony Yezer

IIEP working paper 2019-11

Abstract: It is obvious that holding city population constant, differences in cities across the world are enormous. Urban giants in poor countries are not large using measures such as land area, interior space or value of output. These differences are easily reconciled mathematically as population is the product of land area, structure space per unit land (i.e., heights), and population per unit interior space (i.e., crowding). The first two are far larger in the cities of developed countries while the latter is larger for the cities of developing countries. In order to study sources of diversity among cities with similar population, we construct a version of the standard urban model (SUM) that yields the prediction that the elasticity of city size with respect to income could be similar within both developing countries and developed countries. However, differences in income and urban technology can explain the physical differences between the cities of developed countries and developing countries. Second, using a variety of newly merged data sets, the predictions of the SUM for similarities and differences of cities in developed and developing countries are tested. The findings suggest that population is a sufficient statistic to characterize city differences among cities within the same country, not across countries.

JEL Codes: R13; R14; R31; R41; R42; O18; O2; O33

Keywords: Urbanization; Cities; Urban Giants; Population; Standard Urban Model; Measurement; Urban Technology; Building Heights; Sprawl; Housing; Transportation

The Economics of Missionary Expansion: Evidence from Africa and Implications for Development

May 2019

Remi Jedwab, Felix Meier zu Selhausen, and Alexander Moradi

IIEP Working Paper 2019-10

Abstract: How did Christianity expand in sub-Saharan Africa to become the continent’s dominant religion? Using annual panel data on all Christian missions from 1751 to 1932 in Ghana, as well as cross-sectional data on missions for 43 sub-Saharan African countries in 1900 and 1924, we shed light on the spatial dynamics and determinants of this religious diffusion process. Missions expanded into healthier, safer, more accessible, and more developed areas, privileging these locations first. Results are confirmed for selected factors using various identification strategies. This pattern has implications for extensive literature using missions established during colonial times as a source of variation to study the long-term economic effects of religion, human capital and culture. Our results provide a less favorable account of the impact of Christian missions on modern African economic development. We also highlight the risks of omission and endogenous measurement error biases when using historical data and events for identification.

JEL Codes: N3, N37, N95, Z12, O12, O15

Keywords: Economics of Religion; Religious Diffusion; Path Dependence; Economic Development; Compression of History; Measurement; Christianity; Africa

Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015

September 2017

Remi Jedwab and Adam Storeygard

IIEP Working Paper 2019-9

Abstract: Transport investment has played an important role in the economic development of many countries. Starting from a low base, African countries have recently initiated several massive transportation infrastructure projects. However, surprisingly little is known about the current levels, past evolution, and correlates of transportation infrastructure in Africa. In this paper, we introduce a new data set on the evolution of the stocks of railroads (1862-2015) and multiple types of roads (1960-2015) for 43 sub-Saharan African countries. First, we compare our estimates with those from other available data sets, such as the World Development Indicators. Second, we document the aggregate evolution of transportation investments over the past century in Africa. We confirm that railroads were a “colonial” transportation technology, whereas paved roads were a “post-colonial” technology. We also highlight how investment patterns have followed economic patterns. Third, we report conditional correlations between 5-year infrastructure growth and several geographic, economic and political factors during the period 1960-2015. We find strong correlations between transportation investments and economic development as well as more political factors including pre-colonial centralization, ethnic fractionalization, European settlement, natural resource dependence, and democracy. This suggests that non-economic factors may have a significant role in the ability of countries to invest in these public goods.

JEL Codes: O11; O18; O20; H54; R11; R12; R40; N77

Keywords: Transportation Infrastructure; Public Investment; Railroads; Roads; Paved Roads; Africa; Growth; Institutions; Comparative Development; History

The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa 1960-2010

March 2019

Remi Jedwab and Adam Storeygard

IIEP Working Paper 2019-8

Abstract: Previous work on transportation investments has focused on average impacts in high- and middle-income countries. We estimate average and heterogeneous effects in a poor continent, Africa, using roads and cities data spanning 50 years in 39 countries. Using changes in market access due to distant road construction as a source of exogenous variation, we estimate an 30-year elasticity of city population with respect to market access of 0.06–0.18. Our results suggest that this elasticity is stronger for small and remote cities, and weaker in politically favored and agriculturally suitable areas. Access to foreign cities matters little.

JEL Codes: R11; R12; R4; O18; O20; F15; F16

Keywords: Transportation Infrastructure; Paved Roads; Urbanization; Cities; Africa; Market Access; Trade Costs; Highways; Internal Migration; Heterogeneity

Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death

February 2019

Remi Jedwab, Noel D. Johnson, and Mark Koyama

IIEP Working Paper 2019-3

Abstract: The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347-1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Despite its historical importance, little is known about its spatial effects and the effects of pandemics more generally. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in Plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of the Black Death on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. In addition, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with a Malthusian model in which population returns to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study highlights the role played by pandemics in determining both the sizes and placements of populations.

JEL: R11; R12; O11; O47; J11; N00; N13

Keywords: Pandemics; Black Death; Mortality; Path Dependence; Cities; Urbanization; Malthusian Theory; Migration; Growth; Europe

5th Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Research Conference

 

Friday, September 7, 2018
8:30am to 7:30pm

Preston Auditorium, The World Bank
1818 H Street, NW
Washington, D.C., 20433

Across the developing world, the growth of cities is outpacing effective policy. Low density land use results in rapidly expanding cities, raising the costs of infrastructure and service provision and limiting liveability and productivity. At the same time, limited investments in transport infrastructure such as roads limits the connectivity between individuals and opportunities that make cities engines for growth. Effective policy to address these challenges requires an understanding of the spatial organisation of cities, and how the distribution of private and public investments across a city affect economic growth.

On 7 September 2018, the 5th Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference will bring together academics and development practitioners to present and discuss questions relating to the spatial organisation of cities and economic growth. In particular, the conference will be focusing on effective land and transport policy in cities and the implications of urban development for national growth. This conference is hosted by the World Bank (Development Research Group), George Washington University (Institute for International Economic Policy),  the International Monetary Fund, and the International Growth Centre.

 

  • 8:30-9:00 – Coffee and Registration
  • 9:00-10:45 – Welcoming Remarks
    • Chair and Moderator: 
      Shantayanan Devarajan
      Senior Director, Development Economics, World Bank
    • Panelists:
      Aisa Kirabo Kacyira
      Deputy Director UN-Habitat, former mayor of Kigali
      Edward Glaeser
      Professor of Economics, Harvard and International Growth Center
  • 10:45-11:00 – Coffee Break
  • 11:00 -12:30 – Session One: Land
    • Mini Keynote: Informal Land Use
      Harris Selod
      Development Research Group, The World Bank
    • Backyarding
      Jan Brueckner, Claus Rabe, and Harris Selod
    • Compactness
      Vernon Henderson
    • Chair:
      TBC
    • Discussant: 
      Mariaflavia Harari
      Assistant Professor, University of Pennsylvania
  • 12:30-13:30 – Lunch
  • 13.30-14:15 – Keynote Address:
    • The Geography of Development
      Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
      Princeton University
    • Chair:
      Asli Demirguc-Kunt
      Research Director, Development Research Group, World Bank
  • 14:15 -15:45 – Session Two: Transportation
    • Mini Keynote: “Cars in Cities”
      Matthew Kahn
    • Transport in a Congested City – A Computer Equilibrium Model Applied to Kampala City
      Louise Bernard, Julia Bird, Tony Venables
    • Who Wins? Who Loses? Understanding the Spatially Differentiated Effects of Belt and Road within Central Asia
      Bader El Hifnawy, Somik Lall, Mathilde Lebrand
    • Chair:
      Marianna Fay
      Chief Economist, Climate Change
    • Discussant:
      Leah Brooks
      Assistant Professor, George Washington University
  • 15:45-16:00 – Coffee Break
  • 16:00-17:30 – Session Three: Urbanization, Growth, and Development
    • Mini Keynote:
      Douglas Gollin
    • In Search of a Spatial Equilibrium in the Developing World
      Douglas Gollin, Martina Kirchberger, David Lagakos
    • Modern Urban Technology and the Future of the New Urban Giants
      Remi Jedwab, Prakash Loungani, Anthony Yezer
    • Chair:
      Chris Papageorgiou
      International Monetary Fund
    • Discussant:
      Deniz Igan
      Deputy Division Chief, Research Department’s Macro Financial Division, IMF
  • 17:30-18:00 – Break
  • 18:00-19:30 – Cocktail Reception and Welcome Speech by Maggie Chen
    • At George Washington University, Lindner Commons Room (6th Floor) of the Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E St. N.W. (at the intersection of E and 19th Streets, on E Street), Washington, DC.

Negative Shocks and Mass Persecutions: Evidence from the Black Death

March 2017

by Remi Jedwab (George Washington University), Mark Koyama (George Mason University) & Noel Johnson (George Mason University)

IIEP Working Paper 2017-4

The authors of this paper examine the Black Death persecutions committed against the Jewish people to demonstrate the factors that determine when a minority group will face persecution. A theoretical framework is developed that predicts that there is an increased probability that minorities are scapegoated and persecuted when negative shocks occur. However, if the shocks become more severe, the probability of persecution may decrease when economic complementarities exist between the majority and minority groups. To accomplish this, the authors gathered data on a city-level on Black Death mortality and Jewish persecution. An aggregate level showed that scapegoating led to an increase in the baseline probability of persecution. On the city-level, high plague mortality rates did not align with increased persecutions. Persecutions were found to be more likely in cities with a history of antisemitism and less likely in locations where Jews were featured in important economic roles.

The Black Death had wide-ranging social effects, and historians and economists often look to the Black Death as a direct cause of scapegoating and persecution of Jewish communities. The authors contradict this view using city-level Black Death mortality rates and Jewish persecution, demonstrating that the higher the mortality in a city, the less likely persecution would occur. This was accentuated in cities where Jews played important economic roles. They show that, while the Black Death shock was the initial impetus for antisemitic persecution in Europe, it was mainly patterns of differences in economic standing between minority and majority groups that explain local variation in persecution.

Their work contributes to several literatures, such as recent work on the economics of mass killings. They also add to literature on the relationship between shocks and the persecution of minorities, which emphasizes the role played by economic complementarities between groups, and literature on antisemitism. Their study provides a unique perspective, as well, as the Black Death provides a very well suited setting to examine the causes of mass killings.

In their framework, negative shocks can increase both the incentive to persecute a minority and to raise that minority’s economic value. The authors conclude that the decision to persecute the minority is dependent upon how the intensity of the shock interacts with the benefit one gains from persecution and the economic benefits gained from the presence of the minority. While their research suggested there are underlying biases against minorities, it also demonstrated that complementary economic activities between minority groups and majority groups could reduce inter-group aggression.

IMF Africa Regional Economic Outlook

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

9:00am to 12:00pm

 

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Commons, 6th floor
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

Africa continues to experience great opportunities for growth while also facing several great challenges. Sustained economic growth, income inequality, gender disparities, and competitiveness in the global trade arena are all issues with the potential to make or break the continent’s development as a region. The African Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes the Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Sub-Saharan Africa report twice a year. Review the latest report here.

 

Panel I: Multispeed Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • IMF Presenter: Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia
  • Discussants: Temesgen Deressa and Marcus King

Panel II: Exchange Rate Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences and Lessons

  • IMF Presenter: Haris Tsangarides
  • Discussants: Ajay Chhibber, Steve Suranovic, and Kingsley Moghalu

9th Annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S. China Economic Relations

Click here to view videos

The U.S.-China relationship is now second to none in importance for international economic relations and policy and accordingly is a major focus of IIEP. The centerpiece of this initiative is our annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic and Political Relations

This year, key topics discussed will include China’s financial market, the state of China’s macro-economy, the China-Africa relationship, and China’s outward investments and their impacts. For more information about the conference and bios of each panelist, visit our blog

An archive of all previous Annual Conferences on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations is available here. For more information, please contact Kyle Renner at iiep@gwu.edu or 202-994-5320.

Schedule of Events

November 11, 2016

8:00 – 8:50AM Coffee and Continental Breakfast

8:50 – 9:00AM Welcome and Overview of the Conference

  • Stephen Smith, Director, Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP), Professor of Economics and International Affairs, GWU

9:00 – 11:00AM Panel 1: The Future of Trade Integration in the Asia Pacific

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Steve SuranovicProfessor of Economics and International Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Jeff Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Will the US Invest in or Divest from Asia-Pacific Economic Integration?” 
  • Michael Plummer, JHU, “Megaregionalism in the Asia-Pacific and Options for Shared Chinese-US Leadership”
  • Jiandong Ju, Shanghai University of Finance & Economics, “Huaxia Community: A FTA and a New Architecture for the Global Economic System”

11:00 – 11:15AM Coffee Break

11:15 – 12:45PM Panel 2:The Internet in China’s Economy

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Susan Aaronson, Research Professor of Intenrational Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Hong Xue, Beijing Normal University, “Chinese Electronic Commerce Law: the New Basic Law for Digital Economy”
  • Jingting Fan, UMD, “The Alibaba Effect: Spatial Consumption Inequality and the Welfare Gains from e-Commerce”
  • Maggie Chen, George Washington University, “International Trade on the Internet: Evidence from Alibaba”

12:45 – 2:00PM Lunch

2:00 – 3:30PM Panel 3: Trade, Migration, and Wage Premium in China

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Joseph PelzmanProfessor of Economics and International Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Chao Wei, George Washington University, The Short and Long of Trade and Migration Reforms in China (joint with Xiaodong Zhu)
  • RuiXue Jia, UCSD, “Access to Elite Education, Wage Premium, and Social Mobility: The Truth and Illusion of China’s College Entrance Exam”
  • Eunhee Lee, University of Maryland at College Park, “Trade, Inequality, and the Endogenous Sorting of Heterogeneous workers”
3:30 – 4:00PM: Coffee Break

4:00 – 5:30PM  Panel 4: China’s Macroeconomy, Urban Growth and Policy Analysis

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Remi Jedwab, Professor of Economics and International Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Zheng LiuFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (also affiliated with the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance),“Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy”
  • Matthew TurnerBrown University, “Highways, Market Access and Urban Growth in China”
  • Kai ZhaoUniversity of Connecticut, “The Chinese Saving Rate: Productivity, Old Age Support and Demographics

Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in India: Policy Challenges and Prospects

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Commons, 6th floor
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052
Watch the conference videos

Click here to access the morning speakers

Click here to access the afternoon speakers

Click here to access all other remarks

To prepare for the future, India emphasizes addressing inclusive and sustainable growth, eliminating poverty, and expanding their urban sphere. The growth-orientated government faces challenges in creating efficient policy reforms to fit their agenda. Issues including poverty, inequality, lack of infrastructure, and an unfinished plan for reform limit the country’s tremendous growth prospects.

How can India utilize macro economic policy for faster growth? What additional policies are needed to boost infrastructure and urbanization? How is India responding to climate change and sustainability? How can revised policy and programs aid in eradicating poverty?

The Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs and India’s National Institute of Public Finance and Policy hosted a conversation with top academic researchers, officials from the IMF, NIPFP, and World Bank, and current and former advisors of the Indian governments.

View the Schedule
8:30 – 9:00AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 – 10:00AM: Opening Session
  • Welcome Address
    • Ambassador Reuben Brigety, Dean of the Elliott School
  • Key Note Address: “India’s Reform Challenges and Unfinished Reform Agenda”
    • Arvind Subramaniam, Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 
10:00 – 11:15AM: Session I – “Macro Economic Policy for Faster Growth”
  • Chair: Dr. Ajay Chhibber, IIEP & NIPFP
  • Dr. Subir Gokarn, Exective Director, India IMF
  • Dr. Rathin Roy,  Director, NIPFP, “A Macro-Fiscal Snapshot
11:15 – 11:30AM: Coffee Break
11:30AM – 1:00PM: Session II – “India’s Commitment to Climate Change and Sustainable Growth”
1:00 – 2:00PM: Lunch: Luncheon Address
  • Dr. Junaid Kamal Ahmad, Country Director, India, World Bank 
2:00 – 3:15PM: Session III – “Infrastructure and Urban Drivers of Growth”
3:15 – 3:30PM: Coffee Break
3:30 – 4:45PM: Session IV – “Equitable Growth and Poverty Eradication: Measurement, Programs, and Policies”
4:45 – 5:30PM: Closing Address: “Getting India back to the Growth Turnpike: What will it take?
  • Dr. Rakesh Mohan, Yale University, and former Executive Director, India, IMF 
  • Dr. Ajay ChhibberIIEP & NIPFP

2nd Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Research Conference

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

8:30am to 8:00pm

 

World Bank Headquarters, Washington, D.C

This conference hosted by the World Bank, George Washington University (Institute for International Economic Policy), and the Growth Dialogue brings together academics and development practitioners to present and discuss the challenges of urbanization in developing countries.

For more information about this conference, click here.