Category: Ajay Chhibber

Ajay Chhibber’s 10/4/22 Letter to the Editor in the Financial Times

Ajay Chhibber

Letter: IMF is just doing its job, calling out the UK’s stance

From Ajay Chhibber, Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University

 

 

The article “IMF attack on Britain divides opinion” (Report, October 1) was not so much an attack on Britain as an admonishment of the irresponsible and erratic fiscal policy of the new UK government led by Prime Minister Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, her chancellor. The IMF has in the past been accused of soft-pedalling and self-censorship when it comes to bad policies in richer countries, especially in the G7, and it is good to see it step up to the plate and call it as it sees it — a poorly designed fiscal programme in an advanced G7 country. The IMF must be the premier institution for global macroeconomic policy and financial stability. It must be allowed to provide proper surveillance and comment on G7 country policies which can harm themselves but also have huge spillover effects on the global economy.

Ajay Chhibber Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, US

Modernizing and Reshaping the Bretton Woods Institutions for the 21st Century

2022, Ajay Chhibber, Authors, Working Papers

September 2022

Ajay Chhibber (George Washington University)

IIEP working paper 2022-06

Abstract: This paper lays out the contours of a reformed Bretton Woods Institutions – the IMF, the World Bank Group (WBG) and the WTO – that the world needs for the 21st century. Some of the challenges the world faces today – rising inequality, growing nationalism and protection are what led to World War II from whose ruin emerged the current Bretton Woods international financial architecture. While these institutions performed well over their first 50 years – they have been struggling in more recent times as problems of rising inequality, financial instability and protectionism have re-emerged. But in addition, the threat of climate change and ecological stress, rising disasters, and a more inter-connected world with new threats like cyber-security and pandemics require a new international financial architecture. A modernized and re-invigorated set of Bretton Woods institutions to help address and mitigate these challenges, with a global remit and the mandate to monitor agreed global rules and enhanced resources not only to help individual countries but also to address global problems.

JEL Codes: F40, F60, F02, E00, Q00, G20

Key Words: Bretton Woods, IMF, WTO, World Bank

Economic Planning in India: Did We Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater?

2022, Ajay Chhibber, Authors, Working Papers

February 2022

Ajay Chhibber (George Washington University)

IIEP working paper 2022-03

Abstract: India has a long and a somewhat checkered history of planning – with some success but also many failures. Despite India’s federal structure India’s approach to planning has been top-down with the union government controlling many levers – financial and otherwise to determine the direction of the economy and social programs. India has tried 3 different types of planning – “directed planning”, “indicative planning” and now just a “strategy but no planning”. India needed to replace the Planning Commission but not give up on planning altogether. Just as the rest of the world was going back to a “new planning” surge to handle climate change and the desire to meet the SDG’s India abolished planning altogether. The successor to the planning commission – the Niti Aayog needs to get back to “new planning”, that is now being adopted by many countries with stronger leadership, a legitimized authorizing environment and effective use to plan for helping India achieve the SDGs by 2030 and become a prosperous country by 2047.

JEL Codes: O1, O2

Key Words: Economic Planning, Niti Aayog, Planning Commission, SDG’s

India’s Demographic Dividend or Disaster? Mismanaged Factors of Production – Land, Labor, Infrastructure, Cities

2021, Ajay Chhibber, Authors, Working Papers

April 2021

Ajay Chhibber (George Washington University)

IIEP working paper 2021-11

Abstract: India entered its so-called demographic dividend around 2005 – expected to last until 2055. India has already utilized almost a third of the period of its demographic dividend– it saw a period of explosive growth from 2003-2012 – but has not been able to sustain that growth. And since 2012 growth has generated less and less employment, as it has turned inward, so it is not helping the working age population get usefully employed. The Labor force participation rate for women has been low and is now falling. To understand where India stands in this transformation we ask – why is India’s so dualistic? Why is so much of Indian labor not employed in the organized sector? Why does India with limited capital – and vast quantities of surplus labor invest so much in relatively capital intensive sectors? Why is land which is scarce so badly allocated ? why do most of its cities develop in an unplanned manner ? What can be done to use India’s underlying factors of production better to generate greater, more inclusive and sustained prosperity for its citizens?

JEL Codes: J0, J1, J2, J5, J6, J8, R0, R4, O1, O2

Key Words: Demographic Dividend, Labor Laws, Urban Development, Infrastructure, Logistics, Land Mis-allocation

Why is India’s Financial Sector in Such Trouble: A Whodunnit?

2021, Ajay Chhibber, Authors, Working Papers

August 2021

Ajay Chhibber (George Washington University)

IIEP working paper 2021-09

Abstract: India’s financial system has never collapsed – unlike many other emerging economies. But it suffers from a deep and expanding silent crisis, which has made it one of the most inefficient and non-inclusive financial systems in the world. This paper unravels the reasons for this deep crisis – who is responsible – the regulators, populist politicians, crony capitalists and India’s fiscal dominance. It shows that all the above are culpable. It lays out the major reforms needed and argues that if deep surgery is not performed India cannot emerge as a global economic powerhouse in the 21st century and will remain stuck in a low middle-income trap.

JEL Codes: G00, G01, G18, G21, G32, G33

Key Words: Financial Crisis; Public Sector Banks; Financial Inclusion; Banking Reform

Measuring Human Development for the Anthropocene

2021, Ajay Chhibber, Working Papers

March 2021

Ajay Chhibber, (Distinguished Visiting Scholar , IIEP and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council)

IIEP working paper 2021-06

Abstract: This paper makes the case for an adjusted Human Development Index (HDI) that adds sustainability, vulnerability and human security to the existing HDI components of income, health and education. It shows that these additional elements were part of the discourse in many original writings on human development. They are also central in any discourse on development today. The HDI has made progress by adding gender and inequality in its formulations, but is more reflective of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) agenda than the more comprehensive Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agreed in 2015. The paper reviews existing indicators and suggests a way towards an adjusted HDI. It shows that above an HDI level of 0.8, the cut-off for very high human development, major trade-offs emerge with ecology. It argues for incorporating ecological and human security variables into the HDI, and creating a vulnerability-adjusted HDI that measures resilience to ecological, health and economic shocks, akin to the Inequality-adjusted HDI.

JEL Codes:

Key Words:

India’s Interventionist State: Reduce Its Scope and Improve Its Capability

2021, Ajay Chhibber, Working Papers

January 2021

Ajay Chhibber, (Distinguished Visiting Scholar , IIEP and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council)

IIEP working paper 2021-02

Abstract: This paper lays out a two-part strategy to improve the effectiveness of the state in India reduce the scope of the state and then improve its capability. It argues that the state tries to do too many things and ends up doing many of them badly. It must reduce its scope and change the way it does things – reduce their complexity. It must also strengthen the capabilities of the state institutions – especially those dealing with administrative functions and rule of law. The state must also build up the capability of local administration and increase its financing. It must also get out of the business of business by privatizing state -owned enterprises. 

JEL Codes: H00, H2,H4, H5,H7, H11

Key Words: Role of the State, State-Owned Enterprises, Devolution, State Capability

Farm Protests in India: A new menu needed

2021, Ajay Chhibber, Working Papers

March 2021

Ajay Chhibber (George Washington University)

IIEP working paper 2021-01

Abstract: While the world has changed, India’s farm policy is stuck in a 50-year-old mindset. India’s response to food shortages in the 1960’s was to establish a mix of price (procurement, ration, and minimum support prices MSP’s) and non-price policies – irrigation, high yielding seed, subsidised fertiliser – which led a green revolution in cereals and a complex system of procuring and selling this grain through the Food Corporation of India and the Public Distribution System. But this system has outlived its usefulness for India but changing it is not easy as those whose livelihoods depend on it are unwilling to risk any changes as the farm protests show. This paper examines the issues behind the farm protests and suggests ways forward for India’s farm policy. 

JEL Codes: Q1,Q2,O1,O2,O3

Key Words: Farm protests, structural transformation, green revolution, farm price policy, farm subsidies 

Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in India: Policy Challenges and Prospects

Ajay Chhibber, Development Economics and Poverty Alleviation Events, India, Past Events, Remi Jedwab, Research Conference

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Elliott School of International Affairs
Lindner Commons, 6th floor
1957 E Street NW
Washington, DC 20052
Watch the conference videos

Click here to access the morning speakers

Click here to access the afternoon speakers

Click here to access all other remarks

To prepare for the future, India emphasizes addressing inclusive and sustainable growth, eliminating poverty, and expanding their urban sphere. The growth-orientated government faces challenges in creating efficient policy reforms to fit their agenda. Issues including poverty, inequality, lack of infrastructure, and an unfinished plan for reform limit the country’s tremendous growth prospects.

How can India utilize macro economic policy for faster growth? What additional policies are needed to boost infrastructure and urbanization? How is India responding to climate change and sustainability? How can revised policy and programs aid in eradicating poverty?

The Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs and India’s National Institute of Public Finance and Policy hosted a conversation with top academic researchers, officials from the IMF, NIPFP, and World Bank, and current and former advisors of the Indian governments.

View the Schedule
8:30 – 9:00AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 – 10:00AM: Opening Session
  • Welcome Address
    • Ambassador Reuben Brigety, Dean of the Elliott School
  • Key Note Address: “India’s Reform Challenges and Unfinished Reform Agenda”
    • Arvind Subramaniam, Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India 
10:00 – 11:15AM: Session I – “Macro Economic Policy for Faster Growth”
  • Chair: Dr. Ajay Chhibber, IIEP & NIPFP
  • Dr. Subir Gokarn, Exective Director, India IMF
  • Dr. Rathin Roy,  Director, NIPFP, “A Macro-Fiscal Snapshot“
11:15 – 11:30AM: Coffee Break
11:30AM – 1:00PM: Session II – “India’s Commitment to Climate Change and Sustainable Growth”
1:00 – 2:00PM: Lunch: Luncheon Address
  • Dr. Junaid Kamal Ahmad, Country Director, India, World Bank 
2:00 – 3:15PM: Session III – “Infrastructure and Urban Drivers of Growth”
3:15 – 3:30PM: Coffee Break
3:30 – 4:45PM: Session IV – “Equitable Growth and Poverty Eradication: Measurement, Programs, and Policies”
4:45 – 5:30PM: Closing Address: “Getting India back to the Growth Turnpike: What will it take?“
  • Dr. Rakesh Mohan, Yale University, and former Executive Director, India, IMF 
  • Dr. Ajay Chhibber, IIEP & NIPFP

State Capitalism: Its Evolution and Contribution to Industrialization and Development

Ajay Chhibber, Danny M. Leipziger, Development Economics and Poverty Alleviation Events, Forum, Past Events

The seminar, organized by the Growth Dialogue at George Washington University School of Business,  discussed the evolving role of state capitalism in major economies and measures introduced to enhance the efficiency of state enterprises.

State capitalism exists in most countries; however, it is particularly important in the BRICS. The seminar featured three distinguished speakers who  examined the roles of state enterprises and the state more broadly in the development strategies of Brazil, China and India. We  heard how the state balances its economic objectives with the realities of the market, how it seeks to influence the direction of the economy via SOEs, and how successful these efforts have been. The Seminar featured the following guest speakers:
Aldo MUSACCHIO, Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School

Pieter BOTTELIER, Senior Adjunct Professor, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), John Hopkins University

Ajay CHHIBBER,   Former Director General, Independent Evaluation, India and     Assistant Secretary General, United Nations for Asia Pacific

Moderator: Danny Leipziger, Professor of International Business and International Affairs, George Washington School of Business; Managing Director, The Growth Dialogue.

Friday, October 31, 2014

 

George Washington University
Washington, DC 20052

 

Hosted by: Our Collaborators at the Growth Dialogue
Event Inquiry: info@growthdialogue.org
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