The CCP 20th Party Congress and China’s Road Ahead

Friday, 4th November, 2022

In Person Only

Critical questions about China’s future have swirled around the CCP’s 20th Party Congress: What will Xi Jinping’s third term mean for Chinese domestic politics? What are China’s intentions for Taiwan? How will the party manage slowing economic growth along with mounting demographic and environmental problems? The Sigur Center for Asian Studies will host a half-day congress where leading experts from GW’s distinguished China faculty and top scholars from other institutions seek to address these questions. The event was in person only and open to the general public. Brief presentations were followed by extended opportunities for Q&A with the audience.

 

Introductory Remarks: 12:30-12:45 PM

Gregg Brazinsky, Director Sigur Center for Asian Studies

 

Domestic Politics: 12:45-2:15 PM

Moderator: Gregg Brazinsky (GWU)

Panelists: Bruce Dickson (GWU), Iza Ding (University of Pittsburgh), Jeff Ding (GWU)

 

International Relations: 2:30-4:00 PM

Moderator: Deepa Ollapally (GWU)

Panelists: David Shambaugh (GWU), Patricia Kim (Brookings Institution), Robert Sutter (GWU)

 

Economic Policy: 4:15-5:45 PM

Moderator: Steven Suranovic (GWU)

Panelists: Maggie Chen (GWU), David Dollar (Brookings Institution), Stephen Kaplan (GWU)

Are China and India Likely to Miss the Convergence?

Wednesday, April 13th, 2022
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. EDT / 6:30 – 8:00 p.m. IST
via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to the sixth webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy. This is a platform for dialogue and debate in a series of important discussions.

This event featured Arvind Subramanian, Senior Fellow at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs and Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development, and Kalpana Kochhar, Director of Development Policy and Finance at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, provided discussant remarks.

The event reflected on the development experiences, similar and different, of China and India, as well as their prospects going forward.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber.

About the Speaker:

picture_of_Arvind_SubramanianArvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Government of India between 2014 and 2018, is now Senior Fellow, Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs and Distinguished Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development. Previously, he was Professor at Ashoka University (2020-21), taught at the Harvard Kennedy School (2018-2020), and was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (2011-2014). Foreign Policy magazine named him as one of the world’s top 100 global thinkers in 2011. As CEA, he oversaw the publication of the annual Economic Survey of India, which became a widely read document on Indian economic policy and development. For example, the 2018 Survey had 20 million views from over 190 countries in its first year of publication. Among the major ideas and policies he initiated and helped implement were a simplified goods and services tax (GST), attempts to tackle the Twin Balance Sheet challenge, creating the financial and digital platform for connectivity (the so-called JAM trinity), charting a new fiscal framework, and Universal Basic Income. Announcing his departure as CEA, the former Finance Minister, Mr. Arun Jaitley wrote a Facebook post, Thank You, Arvind. His award-winning book Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance was published in September 2011 and had printed 130,000 copies world-wide in four languages. His latest, best-selling book, reflecting on his time in India, “Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy,” was published by Penguin Random House in December 2018.

Joshua Felman is currently the head of JH Consulting, providing economic advice to academics and policy practitioners. Before that, he was for many years a senior official at the IMF, where he specialized in Asia and especially India. 

His familiarity with India started in the 1980s, when he first began analyzing the economy, as it started to open up to the outside world. During the boom of the mid-2000s, he moved to Delhi to take charge of the IMF’s India office. And in 2015 he returned to India to work for several years in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser in the Ministry of Finance.

Mr. Felman also has extensive familiarity with crises. During the East Asian crisis, he was posted to the IMF’s Jakarta office, where he worked closely with the authorities as they reconstructed a shattered financial system, following the collapse of more than 200 banks. Then, he led the IMF’s operations in the Philippines, as they sought to overcome the lingering effects of the crisis. And after that he led the IMF’s work in Korea, when that country was suffering from a household debt crisis.

Following the Global Financial Crisis, he was appointed Assistant Director in the IMF’s Research Department, where he worked closely with Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, analyzing the implications for the global economy — and also for our understanding of economics.

Mr. Felman did his graduate work at Oxford University in England.

About the Discussants:

picture_of_kalpana_kochharDr. Kalpana Kochhar is Director, Development Policy and Finance at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Prior to taking this position, she spent 33 years at the IMF, ending her career there as the Director of the Human Resources Department of the IMF between 2016 and 2021. She has also held positions as Deputy Director in the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF where she worked on India, China, Korea, Japan and several other Asian countries, and in the Strategy, Policy and Review Department where she launched the IMF’s work on the macroeconomic implications of gender inequality and women’s economic empowerment. Between 2010 and 2012, she was seconded to the World Bank as the Chief Economist for the South Asia Region of the World Bank. Ms. Kochhar’s research interests and publications have been on emerging markets including India and China, and jobs and inclusive growth, gender and inequality issues, structural reforms, and regional integration in South Asia. She holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Economics from Brown University and an M.A. in Economics from Delhi School of Economics in India. She has a B.A in Economics from Madras University in India.

David Dollarpicture_of_david_dollar is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar&Sense. He is a leading expert on China’s economy and U.S.-China economic relations. From 2009 to 2013, Dollar was the U.S. Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing, facilitating the macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue between the United States and China. Prior to joining Treasury, Dollar worked 20 years for the World Bank, serving as country director for China and Mongolia, based in Beijing (2004-2009). His other World Bank assignments focused on Asian economies, including South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India. Dollar also worked in the World Bank’s research department. His publications focus on economic reform in China, globalization, and economic growth. He also taught economics at University of California Los Angeles, during which time he spent a semester in Beijing at the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 1986. He has a doctorate in economics from New York University and a bachelor’s in Chinese history and language from Dartmouth College.

China’s Irreconcilable Choices on Ukraine

Friday, April 22, 2022,

11 a.m.-12:30 p.m. ET

Lindner Family Commons (in-person) and via Zoom

At this event Evan Feigenbaum will discuss how China bridges the geo-economic and geo-political terrain in its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How does China manage its relationships with the U.S. and Russia? How do they triangulate? How can China simultaneously be an ally to Russia and a stakeholder in the global system? Immediately following his keynote remarks, we’ll hear from discussants from the economic angle and the Eurasian/Russian angle to flesh out other viewpoints and highlight tricky issues. The event will conclude with a robust audience Q&A.

Speaker

Evan A. Feigenbaum is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees research in Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi on a dynamic region encompassing both East Asia and South Asia. He was also the 2019-20 James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia, where he is now a practitioner senior fellow. Initially an academic with a PhD in Chinese politics from Stanford University, Feigenbaum’s career has spanned government service, think tanks, the private sector, and three major regions of Asia. He is the author of three books and monographs, including The United States in the New Asia (CFR, 2009, co-author) and China’s Techno-Warriors: National Security and Strategic Competition from the Nuclear to the Information Age (Stanford University Press, 2003), which was selected by Foreign Affairs as a best book of 2003 on the Asia-Pacific, as well as numerous articles and essays.

Discussants

Michael Moore received his B.A. in liberal arts from the University of Texas at Austin and his M.S. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is Director of the Masters of Arts in International Economic Policy program and has been a faculty member at the Elliott School since receiving his doctorate in 1988. Professor Moore teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in international trade theory and policy as well as international macroeconomics. He also has taught international economics to US diplomats at the Foreign Service Institute and students at the Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques (Sciences-Po) in Paris. He has published in numerous academic journals including the Journal of International Economics, International Trade Journal, Canadian Journal of Economics, Review of International Economics, European Journal of Political Economy, and Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, and has been a contributor to five books. His commentary has appeared in numerous media outlets, including The Washington PostThe Financial Times, CNN, CBC, NPR, and NBC.

 

This event is part of our China conference series and is cosponsored by the Sigur Center and GW-CIBER.

U.S.-China Tension

Friday, April 1, 2022

9:30 a.m
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference takes place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

Since 1949, US–China relations have evolved from tense standoffs to a complex mix of intensifying diplomacy, growing international rivalry, and increasingly intertwined economies. Continued escalation of trade disputes and blame over the spread of the coronavirus are emblematic of a significant hardening of positions that extends well beyond these two issues. The importance of US–China tension in shaping either macroeconomic outcomes or firm-level decisions over a long time span has not been studied empirically, mainly for lack of an indicator that can quantify these tensions. The paper that will be discussed measures the intensity of public concerns over US–China tension and shows that there are adverse economic consequences for both countries due to heightened tensions.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Bo SunBo Sun is a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board. She currently serves as an associated editor of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. She served on the faculty at Guanghua School of Management of Peking University from 2011 to 2014, and taught courses in corporate finance at undergraduate, Masters, MBA, and Ph.D. levels. Her research interests include finance and macroeconomics, with a particular focus on information frictions. Her research has been published in leading academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, International Economic Review, Journal of Economic Literature, and American Economic Journal: Microeconomics. Her research has also been mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, Brookings, Chicago Booth Review, and Deutsche Bank Research, among other outlets. She was a visiting scholar at the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, World Bank, and Carnegie Mellon University. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Virginia and B.A. in Finance from Peking University.

Mary Lovely (Syracuse and PIIE) will discuss.

The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China

Tuesday, March 22 | 4:00 pm – 6:00 pm ET
Format: Hybrid In Person and Virtual Event
In person: Elliott School of International Affairs
The Lindner Family Commons,
Room 602
1957 E St NW, Washington DC 20052
Virtual: via Zoom

We were pleased to invite you to a joint Elliott School Book Launch Series and IIEP Policy Forum at GW featuring Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia and current President and CEO of the Asia Society, on his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China. Elliott School Dean Alyssa Ayres provided welcome remarks. Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, International Affairs, and Political Science David Shambaugh engaged with the Hon. Kevin Rudd in conversation, and there was a lengthy moderated Q&A. Books were available for purchase and signing after the end of the event.

About The Speaker

Kevin Rudd is a former Prime Minister of Australia and current President and CEO of the Asia Society. He became President and CEO of Asia Society in January 2021 and has been president of the Asia Society Policy Institute since January 2015. He served as Australia’s 26th Prime Minister from 2007 to 2010, then as Foreign Minister from 2010 to 2012, before returning as Prime Minister in 2013. He is also a leading international authority on China. He began his career as a China scholar, serving as an Australian diplomat in Beijing before entering Australian politics.

 

 

 

 

About The Moderator

David Shambaugh is an internationally recognized authority and award-winning author on contemporary China and the international relations of Asia. He currently is the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science & International Affairs, and the founding Director of the China Policy Program in the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. He was also a formerly a Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at The Brookings Institution and Director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

 

 

Introductory Remarks

Picture of Alyssa AyresAlyssa Ayres is the Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Her work focuses primarily on India’s role in the world and on U.S. relations with South Asia in the larger Indo-Pacific. Before joining the Elliott School, she was a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia under the Obama administration. She holds a Ph.D. in South Asian Languages and Civilizations from the University of Chicago.

Looking for Balanced Growth in China: Insights from the latest IMF Staff report

Friday, March 4th, 2022
9:30 – 11:00 a.m. ET
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the fourth event in the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.

China rebounded strongly from the pandemic, but growth is losing momentum while remaining overly dependent on support from investment and exports. This imperils the nation’s long-sought transition to sustained high-quality growth that’s balanced, inclusive and green.

While China’s many challenges have no easy answer, the key message of the IMF’s annual Article IV review of the economy is that rebalancing toward a more consumption-based model will boost growth prospects in the short term and deliver high-quality expansion in the long run. Importantly, it will also help bring the country closer to achieving its climate goal of carbon neutrality before 2060.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Helge BergerHelge Berger is an Assistant Director in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. He is also an adjunct professor of monetary economics at Free University of Berlin. He was educated in Munich, Germany, where he received his Ph.D. and the venia legendi for economics. Previously, he taught at Princeton University as a John Foster Dulles Visiting Lecturer, helped to coordinate the Munich-based CESifo network as its research director, and served as full professor (tenured) at Free University Berlin. At the IMF, he has worked in the Research and European Departments.

 

Picture of Wenjie ChenWenjie Chen is a senior economist on the IMF’s China team. Prior to that, she worked in the Research Department, where she was part of the World Economic Outlook team. She has also worked in the African Department on South Africa and South Sudan. Before joining the IMF, Wenjie worked as a professor at George Washington University School of Business and Elliott School of International Affairs. She received her MA and PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan.

 

About the Discussant:

Picture of Chao WeiChao Wei is an associate professor of economics at the George Washington University who previously taught at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She was the 2010-2011 Economic Policy Fellow at the Congressional Budget Office. Her primary research areas are: Macroeconomics, Labor Economics, Financial Economics, China Economy, and Energy and Environmental Economics. She has published papers, including at the top journal of the economics field, on the impact of energy price shocks on the stock market, the effect of personal and corporate income taxes on asset returns, and the endogenous determination of gasoline use and vehicle fuel efficiency. Her recent research focuses on the relationship between family structure and parental human capital investment, marital and labor supply behaviors of older adults, and the trade-off between stimulus and environmental objectives in the green stimulus programs. She holds degrees from Fudan University (BA), Columbia University (M.A.) and Stanford University (Ph.D.).

About the Moderator:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Regulating Conglomerates: Evidence from an Energy Conservation Program in China

Tuesday, March 1st, 2022
12:30-2:00 EST
on Zoom

Paper Abstract: We study a prominent energy regulation affecting large Chinese manufacturers that are part of broader conglomerates. Using detailed firm-level data and difference-in-differences research designs, we show that regulated firms cut output and shifted some production to unregulated firms in the same conglomerate instead of improving their energy efficiency. To account for conglomerate and market spillovers, we interpret these results through the lens of an industry equilibrium model featuring conglomerate production. We quantify that a $160 social cost of carbon rationalizes the policy and that alternative policies that exploit public information on business networks can increase aggregate energy savings by 10%.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Daniel Yi XuDaniel Yi Xu is a Professor of Economics at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Co-editor of the Review of Economics and Statistics. He is also the associate editor of the Rand Journal of Economics and AEJ: Applied. His research focus tends to focus on Productivity/Innovation, International Trade, and Industrial Organization. His website: https://sites.google.com/site/yixusite/

 

Taking on China – the Imperative and agenda for India

Wednesday, November 17th, 2021
8:30 – 10:00 am EDT / 7:00 – 8:30 pm IST

This was the third webinar in the 2021-2022 Envisioning India series, co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the Institute for International Economic Policy, a platform for dialogue and debate. We invited you to engage with us in this series of important discussions.

The Envisioning India series is organized under the stewardship of IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh, Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics, and IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar Ajay Chhibber. The third event of the 2021-2022 series featured Ambassador (Retd) Gautam Bambawale (Distinguished Professor, Symbiosis University, Pune, India) and Dr. Ganesh Natarajan (5F World and Lighthouse Communities) to discuss “Taking on China – The Imperative and Agenda for India.” Manjeet Kripalani (Gateway House) and Dr. Jaimini Bhagwati (CSEP) provided discussant remarks.

India and China were more or less comparable in terms of economy size and global influence in the past but the rapid growth of China in the last five decades has taken China to near super power status and an economy which is over four times the size of India (14 trillion vs 3 trillion USD). This has seen increasing belligerence from China in the last year or so and we believe that India must act and act on multiple fronts if we are to retain our position on the High Table of global affairs.

Six senior members of the Pune International Center in India came together over a one year period in 2021-21 to produce a book Rising to the China Challenge: Winning Through Strategic Patience and Economic Growth that has been recently published and widely read in political, diplomatic and economic circles. Our submission is that there is a need for significant policy responses and diplomatic moves on the one hand and a renewed focus on restoring economic symmetry with China on the other to restore some level of equilibrium between the two nations. Two of the authors, Ambassador (Retd) Gautam Bambawale and Dr. Ganesh Natarajan, will present the book.

In the talk, three areas of great importance will be addressed.
1. Redressing the economic imbalance by focusing on industry sectors where India has the opportunity to redress the huge disparity that currently exists in domestic independence and global position, sectors where we have the imperative and the ability to catch up and build much higher values in the years to come and finally areas where India can indeed take the lead and build jobs for the future.
2. Diplomatic responses needed from India by having new models of engagement with global nations of importance, China’s neighbors and India’s own neighbors to counter China’s growing dominance in world affairs.
3. India’s own domestic and international imperatives and policies and programs that are essential to set India on a path of sustained and significant growth as a democratic force of significance to the world.

About the Speakers:

Picture of Gautam BambawaleAmbassador (Retd) Gautam Bambawale was a member of the Indian Foreign Service from 1984 to 2018. He was India’s Ambassador to Bhutan, Pakistan and China. Bambawale was stationed in Washington DC in 2004-07 during the Indo-US nuclear deal which transformed ties between the two countries. He has been India’s first Consul General in Guangzhou (China) 2007-09. He was Director of the Indian Cultural Centre, Berlin 1994-98. Ambassador Bambawale worked in the Prime Minister’s Office 2002-04. At the Ministry of External Affairs he was Joint Secretary for East Asia from 2009-2014. Bambawale has dealt with China for 15 years of his 34 year diplomatic career. He is currently Distinguished Professor, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Symbiosis International University, Pune.

Picture of Ganesh NatarajanDr. Ganesh Natarajan is Chairman and Co-Founder of 5F World and Lighthouse Communities. He is an investor and mentor to digital platforms and AI entrepreneurs in India and USA. Ganesh is a Board Director of SBI, Hinduja Global Solutions and Asian Venture Philanthropy Network and is Chairman of Honeywell Automation India. Ganesh is an alumnus of IIT Bombay and Harvard Business School and a recipient of IIT’s Distinguished Alumnus Award.

 

 

About the Discussants:

Picture of Manjeet KripalaniManjeet Kripalani is Executive Director of Gateway House. Prior to the founding of Gateway House, she was India Bureau chief of Businessweek magazine from 1996 to 2009. During her extensive career in journalism (Businessweek, Worth and Forbes magazines, New York), she has won several awards, including the Gerald Loeb Award, the George Polk Award, Overseas Press Club and Daniel Pearl Awards. Kripalani was the 2006-07 Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York, which inspired her to found Gateway House. Her political career spans being the deputy press secretary to Steve Forbes during his first run in 1995-96 as Republican candidate for U.S. President in New Jersey, to being press secretary for the Lok Sabha campaign for independent candidate Meera Sanyal in 2008 and 2014 in Mumbai. Kripalani holds two bachelor’s degrees from Bombay University (Bachelor of Law, Bachelor of Arts in English and History) and a master’s degree in International Affairs from Columbia University, New York. She sits on the executive board of Gateway House and is a member of the Rotary Club of Bombay.

Picture of Jaimini BhagwatiDr. Jaimini Bhagwati is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), Chairman of the Infrastructure Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) Asset Management Trustee Company and Board member of IDFC Limited. Dr. Bhagwati was India’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom and India’s Ambassador to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg. He has held senior positions in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Department of Atomic Anergy and the World bank Treasury. His responsibilities at the World Bank included bond funding including execution of over-the-counter derivatives transactions. Between 2013-2018 Dr. Bhagwati was the Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor at ICRIER. Dr. Bhagwati was educated at St. Stephen’s College, New Delhi, Tufts University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA.

Did U.S. Politicians Expect the China Shock?

Friday, October 15th, 2021
9:30 a.m. – 11 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

 

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference takes place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

In the two decades straddling China’s WTO accession, the China Shock, i.e. the rapid trade integration of China in the early 2000’s, has had a profound economic impact across U.S. regions. It is now both an internationally litigated issue and the casus belli for a global trade war. Were its consequences unexpected? Did U.S. politicians have imperfect information about the extent of China Shock’s repercussions in their district at the time when they voted on China’s Normal Trade Relations status? Or did they have accurate expectations, yet placed a relatively low weight on the subconstituencies that ended up being adversely affected?

In this inaugural event, HKU’s Bingjing Li discussed how information sets, expectations, and preferences of U.S. politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices in regards to the China Shock. Prof. Li applies a moment inequality approach designed to deliver unbiased estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. Employing repeated roll call votes in the U.S. House of Representatives on China’s Normal Trade Relations status, she formally tests what information politicians had at the time of their decision and consistently estimates the weights that constituent interests, ideology, and other factors had in congressional votes. She will show how assuming perfect foresight of the shocks biases the role of constituent interests and how standard proxies to modeling politician’s expectations bias the estimation. She cannot reject that politicians could predict the initial China Shock in the early 1990’s, but not around 2000, when China started entering new sectors, and find a moderate role of constituent interests, compared to ideology. Overall, she will show how U.S. legislators appeared to have had accurate information on the China Shock, but did not place substantial weight on its adverse consequences.

Boston University’s James Feigenbaum served as a discussant and IIEP’s Maggie Chen moderated with an introduction from IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Bingjing LiDr. Bingjing Li is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Hong Kong. Her main research fields are international trade and applied microeconomics. Using both micro data and quantitative models, her works focus on understanding the interactions of international trade with development and political economy factors, and their consequences.

 

 

About the Discussant:

Picture of James FeigenbaumJames Feigenbaum is an Assistant Professor in the Boston University Department of Economics. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER in the Development of the American Economy program and a Junior Faculty Fellow at BU’s Hariri Institute for Computing. James studies economic history, labor economics, and political economy. His research interests include understanding the effects of economic shocks on politics and politicians. Prof. Feigenbaum received his PhD in Economics from Harvard University and his B.A. with High Honors in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Maggie ChenMaggie Chen is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. She has served as Director of GW’s Institute for International Economic Policy and worked as an economist in the research department of the World Bank and a consultant for the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Professor Chen’s research areas include multinational firms, international trade, and regional trade agreements. Her work has been published in academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. She is a co-editor of Economic Inquiry and an associate editor of Economic Modeling.

Introduction by:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

China Conference Sponsors

Are Pitcairn Island (UK), China and Taiwan really joining CPTPP?

Wednesday, November 3rd, 2021
3:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. EST
via Zoom

WITA and the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University discussed the potential for the UK and China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Ken Levinson, WITA Executive Director, provided welcoming remarks.

Panel Discussion:

The Honorable Tim Groser, former Ambassador of New Zealand, and former Minister of Trade

Wendy Cutler, former US negotiator of the original TransPacific Partnership, and current Senior Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute

Shanker Singham, CEO, Competere, and Director of the International Trade and Competition Unit at the Institute of Economic Affairs, and Head of Trade at the Centre for Economics and Business Research

Led and moderated by Jay Shambaugh, Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University, and former Member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors

One Currency, Two Markets: China’s Attempt to Internationalize the Renminbi

Friday, November 5th, 2021
9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

This was the second event in the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference takes place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

This event featured HKU’s Edwin Lai to discuss his recent book titled “One Currency, Two Markets: China’s Attempt to Internationalize the Renminbi.” The Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA) Representative Director Dr. Masahiro Kawai provided discussant remarks. In this book, Edwin Lai discusses economic analysis of the future of the international monetary system and the USD, and the rising importance of the RMB. He points out the unsustainability of the dollar standard in the long run, that China has unique incentives to internationalize its currency, and how Hong Kong plays an important role. He explains the real reasons for China to internationalize its currency, including using external commitments to force financial sector reforms (‘daobi’ in Chinese). His book applies economic theories accessible to laymen to establish that financial development and openness are crucial for RMB internationalization to succeed, and that greater exchange rate volatility is inevitable due to the ‘open-economy trilemma’. Employing the ‘gravity model’, the book predicts quantitatively that the RMB is likely to be a distant third payment currency after the USD and the euro, but surpassing the Japanese yen in the next decade.

IIEP Director Jay Shambaugh and Elliott School Vice Dean James Foster provided welcome and introductory remarks. Barbara Stallings moderated the event. James Foster introducde Edwin Lai and Barbara Stallings introduced Dr. Masahiro Kawai.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Edwin LaiEdwin Lai is Professor of Economics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology since July 2009, and later jointly appointed as the Director of the Center for Economic Development and jointly appointed as Professor in the Division of Public Policy. He was Senior Research Economist and Adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas of the Federal Reserve System of the USA, from August 2007 to June 2009. Before that he was Assistant Professor at Vanderbilt University, Associate Professor at City University of Hong Kong and Associate Professor at Singapore Management University. His main research areas are international economics, industrial organization, growth and internationalization of renminbi. He is a leading scholar in the study of intellectual property rights in the global economy. He has published in American Economic Review, RAND Journal of Economics, International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics and other highly respected journals in economics.

Prof. Lai has been a consultant to the World Bank, visiting scholar/fellow with Boston University, Princeton University, Kobe University, CESifo (University of Munich), Hitotsubashi University, and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. He is Associate Editor of Review of International Economics (Wiley Publisher), a Fellow of the CESifo Research Network (U of Munich), and a board member of Asia-Pacific Trade Seminars (APTS) Group. He obtained his B.Sc. in engineering from the University of Hong Kong of Science and Technology and A.M. and Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University.

About the Discussant:

Picture of Masahiro KawaiDr. Masahiro Kawai is the Representative Director of the Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA) in Niigata, Japan. While teaching Asian finance at the University of Tokyo as Professor Emeritus, he also serves as a Councilor of the Bank of Japan, a Senior Fellow of the Policy Research Institute of Japan’s Finance Ministry, and a Distinguished Research Fellow of the Japan Forum on International Relations. Dr. Kawai has published numerous books and articles on open-economy macroeconomics, economic and financial globalization, regional economic integration in Asia, and the international monetary system. He co-edited a book with Barry Eichengreen, entitled Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges (Brookings Institution Press, 2015).

Previously, Dr. Kawai held positions as: Dean of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Institute; Special Advisor to the ADB President in charge of regional economic cooperation and integration; Deputy Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs and President of the Policy Research Institute of Japan’s Ministry of Finance; Chief Economist for the World Bank’s East Asia and the Pacific Region; a Professor of Economics at the University of Tokyo and an Associate Professor of Economics at The Johns Hopkins University; and a Research Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

He graduated with his B.A. degree in Economics from the University of Tokyo’s Economics Department. He earned his M.S. degree in Statistics and Ph.D. degree in Economics from Stanford University.

About the Moderator:

Picture of Barbara StallingsBarbara Stallings is William R. Rhodes Research Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and editor of Studies in Comparative International Development. She is also a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University. Before arriving at Brown in 2002, she was director of the Economic Development Division of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, Chile (1993–2002), and professor of political economy at the University of Wisconsin–Madison (1977–1993). She has doctorates in economics (University of Cambridge) and in political science (Stanford University) and is a specialist in development economics, with an emphasis on development strategies and international finance. In addition, she works on issues of economic relations between Asia and Latin America and comparisons between the two regions. Her recent books are Innovation and Inclusion in Latin America: Strategies to Avoid the Middle Income Trap (2016) and Promoting Development: The Political Economy of East Asian Foreign Aid (2017). Her most recent book, Dependency in the Twenty-First Century?: The Political Economy of China-Latin America Relations (2020), was selected as one of Foreign Affairs’ best books of 2020. She has taught at various universities in China and elsewhere in Asia; currently she is a distinguished visiting professor at the Schwarzman Program at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

Welcome and Introductory Remarks:

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Picture of James FosterJames E. Foster is the Oliver T. Carr, Jr. Professor of International Affairs, Professor of Economics, and Vice Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs. He is also a Research Associate at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at Oxford University. Professor Foster’s research focuses on welfare economics — using economic tools to evaluate and enhance the wellbeing of people. His work underlies many well-known social indices including the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) published annually by the UNDP in the Human Development Report, dozens of national MPIs used to guide domestic policy against poverty, the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) at USAID, the Gross National Happiness Index of Bhutan, the Better Jobs Index of the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the Statistical Performance Index of the World Bank. Prof. Foster received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University and has a Doctorate Honoris Causa from Universidad Autonoma del Estado Hidalgo (Mexico).

How is the Roll Out of Digital RMB Changing the Financial System in China and Abroad?

Friday, November 19th, 2021
9:30 – 11:00 a.m. ET
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the third event in the 14th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference took place as a virtual series. The conference was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research (GW-CIBER).

This event featured Fudan University’s Jun Qian discussing “How is the Roll Out of Digital RMB Changing the Financial System in China and Abroad?” Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute for International Economics provided discussant remarks. IIEP’s Maggie Chen provided welcoming remarks.

The rapid development of mobile electronic devices and softwares is leading our life towards a “cashless society,” and is redefining cross-border payment systems by making small value and high frequency transactions much more accessible than before. Digital currencies began with only non-sovereign cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and stable coins USDT, issued by anonymous and private institutions, but has evolved to a “dual-tier system” after Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) emerged. Currently, all major central banks around the globe are either in the process of launching, or proactively researching on their own CBDC. China is leading the way with its  CBDC roll-out (digital RMB, or e-CNY), issued by the People’s Bank of China (PBC)). The digital RMB has been issued and used in an increasing number of large cities and multiple consumption scenes.

About the Speaker

Picture of Jun QianProfessor Jun Qian is currently a Professor of Finance and Executive Dean at Fanhai International School of Finance (FISF), Fudan University.

Prior to joining FISF, he was Professor of Finance at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Director of the DBA/EMBA/EE programs; he was also the Deputy Director of China Academy of Financial Research. Before returning to China in 2013, he was a tenured finance professor at the Carroll School of Management, Boston College.

Professor Qian’s research interests span many topics of corporate finance, financial institutions and capital markets. His research papers have been published in top academic journals including the American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies and Journal of International Economics. One of his best known papers, published in the Journal of Financial Economics in 2005, is elected an “All-Star” paper based on its large number of citations. He also contributed book chapters on developing financial systems, including China’s Great Economic Transformation, Emerging Giants: China and India in the World Economy, China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, and Global Perspectives of Rule of Law.

Professor Qian is an Associate Editor of Frontiers of Economics in China and was on the editorial board of Review of Finance. He is a Research Fellow at the Financial Institutions Center of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He has also been on the organizing committee of the China International Conference in Finance, the best academic finance conference in Asia, since its inception, and served as conference Co-Chair during 2008-2010. In addition, he was one of the academic advisors for The Chinese Finance Association, the largest organization for Chinese finance practitioners in the U.S. He also served as a visiting or special-term professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, the Wharton School, School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and Shanghai National Accounting Institute.

Professor Qian received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania in 2000, and his B.S. degree in economics from University of Iowa. He also enrolled at Department of International Economics, Fudan University as an undergraduate.

About the Discussant

Picture of Martin ChorzempaMartin Chorzempa, senior fellow since January 2021, joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics as a research fellow in 2017. He gained expertise in financial innovation while in Germany as a Fulbright Scholar and researcher at the Association of German Banks. He conducted research on financial liberalization in Beijing, first as a Luce Scholar at Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research and then at the China Finance 40 Forum, China’s leading independent think tank. In 2017, he graduated from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government with a masters in public administration in international development. He is working on a forthcoming book on fintech in China. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times, MIT Technology Review, and Foreign Affairs.

Welcoming Remarks

Picture of Maggie ChenMaggie Chen is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. She has served as Director of GW’s Institute for International Economic Policy and worked as an economist in the research department of the World Bank and a consultant for the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Professor Chen’s research areas include multinational firms, international trade, and regional trade agreements. Her work has been published in academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. She is a co-editor of Economic Inquiry and an associate editor of Economic Modeling.

Globalizing Patient Capital: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in the Americas

Friday, April 30, 2021
9 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy and the GW Elliott School of International Affairs Book Launch Series was pleased to invite you to a book launch discussion of Prof. Stephen B. Kaplan’s Globalizing Patient Capital: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in the Americas (Cambridge University Press).

China’s overseas financing is a distinct form of “patient capital” that marshals the country’s vast domestic resources to create commercial opportunities internationally. Its long-term risk tolerance and lack of policy conditionality has allowed developing economies to sidestep the fiscal austerity tendencies of Western markets and multilaterals. Professor Stephen B. Kaplan will discuss his new book, Globalizing Patient Capital: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in the Americas, which examines China’s state-led capitalism, and the costs and benefits of state versus market approaches to development. In the talk, Professor Kaplan explores how patient capital affects national-level governance across the Americas and beyond, including how Chinese leaders might react to developing nation’s ongoing struggles with debt and dependency.

The book launch was also part of our 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. The conference took place as a virtual series. This conference was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, the GW Center for International Business Education and Research, the Latin American & Hemispheric Studies Program (LAHSP) at GW, the GW Department of Political Science, and the Elliott School Book Launch Series.

Meet the Speaker:

Stephen Kaplan is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs. Professor Kaplan’s research and teaching interests focus on the frontiers of international and comparative political economy, where he specializes in the political economy of global finance and development, the rise of China in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin American politics.

Professor Kaplan joined the GWU faculty in the fall of 2010 after completing a postdoctoral research fellowship at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton University and his Ph.D at Yale University. While at Yale, Kaplan also worked as a researcher for former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. Prior to his doctoral studies, Professor Kaplan was a senior economic analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, writing extensively on developing country economics, global financial market developments, and emerging market crises from 1998 to 2003.

Meet the Discussants:

Picture of Carol WiseProfessor Carol Wise, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Southern California (USC), has written widely on trade integration, exchange rate crises, institutional reform, and the political economy of market restructuring in the Latin American region. Wise is author of the book, Dragonomics: How Latin America is Maximizing (or Missing Out) on China’s International Development Strategy (Yale University Press, 2020), which received USC’s Phi Kappa Phi Faculty Recognition Award in 2021 and the Luciano Tomassini 2021 Award-Honorable Mention for the Best Book on International Relations from the Latin American Studies Association. Professor Wise’s most recent journal articles include: “Playing both Sides of the Pacific: Latin America’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with China,” Pacific Affairs (2016); “Conceptualizing China-Latin America Relations in the 21 st Century” (with Victoria Chonn Ching), The Pacific Review (2017); and, “International Trade Norms in the Age of Covid-19” (with Nicolas Albertoni), Fudan Humanities and Social Science Journal (2020). Professor Wise has held Fulbright Grants to Canada, Mexico, and Peru. She is a member of the core social science faculty at Renmin University’s annual International Summer Program, Beijing. In 2019, Wise was the Fulbright-Masaryk University Distinguished Chair in the Czech Republic. Her latest research compares the political economy of development in Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe.

Picture of Roselyn HsuehRoselyn Hsueh is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University in Philadelphia, where she codirects the Certificate in Political Economy. She is the recipient of the Fulbright Global Scholar Award for research in India, Mexico, and Russia. Her next book, Micro-Institutional Foundations of Capitalism: Sectoral Pathways to Globalization in China, India, and Russia, is under contract with Cambridge University Press. She is the author of China’s Regulatory State: A New Strategy for Globalization (Cornell, 2011), and scholarly articles and book chapters. BBC World News, The Economist, Foreign Affairs, National Public Radio, The Washington Post, and other media outlets have featured her research. She has testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and consulted for The Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Hsueh has served as a Global Order Visiting Scholar at the University of Pennsylvania, member of the Georgetown Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues, and Residential Research Faculty Fellow at U.C. Berkeley. She also lectured as a Visiting Professor at Tecnológico de Monterrey in Mexico. She held the Hayward R. Alker Postdoctoral Fellowship at the University of Southern California and conducted international fieldwork in China, Japan, and Taiwan as a U.S. Fulbright Scholar and David L. Boren National Security Fellow. She earned her B.A. and doctorate in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Meet the Moderator: 

Jay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and  International Affairs, and Co- Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Minimum Performance Targets, Multitasking and Incentives: Theory and Evidence from China’s Air Quality Controls

Friday, April 9, 2021
9:30 a.m.-11 a.m. EDT
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

As the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China has launched serious efforts to tighten its environmental regulation and curb air pollution in the past decade. A distinctive feature of Beijing’s approach is the critical role played by local governments in complying with central directives. China’s local officials are currently facing the dual tasks of pursuing local economic development and curbing air pollution, which are potentially conflicting with each other. To resolve this multitasking challenge, China has recently introduced minimum targets for air quality controls to discipline local officials while continuing to link their promotion prospects to local economic performance (such as GDP growth).

In the event, Peking University’s Li-An Zhou discussed how local Chinese officials respond strategically to minimum air quality control targets when they care more about pursuing regional economic development, which is closely linked to their career prospects. Using a novel prefecture-day-level dataset on air quality, Zhou finds strong evidence that air quality tends to improve when the air quality target is doomed to fail, but deteriorates significantly after the early fulfillment of the target is guaranteed. These “asymmetric” strategic responses are mainly driven by “outsiders” – local officials with no previous exposure to the regions to which they are assigned. Greater pressure to promote local economic development reinforces outsiders’ asymmetric responses. For “non-outsiders” who have been promoted from the local area and who are more likely to intrinsically value the local environment, air quality performance is stable in both cases of target fulfillment. The study sheds light on how minimum air quality targets have worked in China’s context and highlights the role of intrinsic motivations in mitigating strategic responses to minimum performance targets in a multitasking environment.

JHU’s Matthew Kahn served as a discussant and IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh served as a moderator, with a brief introduction from IIEP’s Chao Wei.

Co-sponsors:
Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

Meet the Speakers: 

Li-An Zhou Li-An Zhou is is Professor of Economics and Associate Dean of Guanghua School of
Management at Peking University. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford
University. His research interests include political economy, industrial organization,
economic development, and Chinese economy. Dr. Zhou has published papers in
leading international journals of economics and management including American
Economic Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, Journal of
Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics, and Strategic Management Journal.

Meet the Discussant: 

Matthew E. KahnMatthew E. Kahn is the Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Economics and Business at Johns Hopkins University and the Director of JHU’s 21st Century Cities Initiative. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research fellow at IZA. He has taught at Columbia, the Fletcher School at Tufts University, UCLA and USC. He has served as a Visiting Professor at Harvard and Stanford and as the Low Tuck Kwong Distinguished Visiting Professor at the National University of Singapore. He is a graduate of Hamilton College and the London School of Economics. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago. He is the author of Green Cities: Urban Growth and the Environment (Brookings Institution Press 2006) and the co-author (joint with Dora L. Costa) of Heroes and Cowards: The Social Face of War (Princeton University Press 2009). He is also the author of Climatopolis (Basic Books 2010) and Blue Skies over Beijing: Economic Growth and the Environment in China (joint with Siqi Zheng published by Princeton Press in 2016). He has also published three other Amazon Kindle books on urban economics and microeconomics. His research focuses on urban and environmental economics.

Meet the Moderators: 

Jay Shambaugh is Professor of Economics and  International Affairs, and Co- Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. His area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. Jay is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Jay taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Chao WeiChao Wei received her PhD in Economics from Stanford University in 2001. She also holds an MA in economics from Columbia University and a BA in economics from Fudan University in China. She worked at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill for two years before joining the George Washington University in 2003. Her research interests focus on the intersection of macroeconomics and financial economics, with an emphasis on the asset pricing implications of production economies with and without nominal rigidities. Her current research examines the impact of personal and corporate income taxes on asset returns. She teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in Money and banking, and Macroeconomic Theory.

Belt and Road Initiative

Wednesday, March 31, 2021
5:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.
via Zoom

 
The Undergraduate Economics Society is proud to announce a discussion with Jennifer Hillman, Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations. In this conversation, we discussed China’s Belt and Road Initiative and a new CFR Independent Taskforce Report on the topic directed by Hillman. The dialogue addressed topics ranging from the effects of the COVID-19 economy on BRI’s sustainability to forecasting the initiative’s future amid a pullback in official Chinese investments.

Co-sponsors:
The Undergraduate Economics Society

China’s Outward Investments: State Capitalism or Capital Flight?

Friday, March 5, 2021
9:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.
via Webex

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. The conference took place as a virtual series. The conference was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

In this event, Professor Meg Rithmire discussed the nature of China’s outward investments. Deborah Brautigam (JHU-SAIS) and Stephen Kaplan (GWU) provided discussant remarks. IIEP Co-Director Jay Shambaugh moderated the discussion.

Global observers are increasingly focused on China’s “state capitalism” and its implications for trading partners and host countries. Disentangling the strategic and commercial motives for Chinese firms abroad is not straightforward, and some of Chinese companies’ global efforts subvert, rather than execute, the Chinese state’s strategic goals. In this talk, based on research on the changing role of the state in China’s economy and the internationalization of Chinese capital over the last decade, I characterize China’s approach to globalization as a series of campaigns and experiments with constant adjustments and focus on the reach and limits of the Chinese party-state.

Meet the Presenter:

Picture of Meg RithmireMeg Rithmire is F. Warren MacFarlan associate professor in the Business, Government, and International Economy Unit. Professor Rithmire holds a PhD in Government from Harvard University, and her primary expertise is in the comparative political economy of development with a focus on China and Asia. Her first book, Land Bargains and Chinese Capitalism (Cambridge University Press, 2015), examines the role of land politics, urban governments, and local property rights regimes in the Chinese economic reforms. A new project, for which Meg conducted fieldwork in Asia 2016-2017, investigates the relationship between capital and the state and globalization in Asia. The project focuses on a comparison of China, Malaysia, and Indonesia from the early 1980s to the present. The research has two components; first, examining how governments attempt to discipline business and when those efforts succeed and, second, how business adapts to different methods of state control.

Meet the Discussants:

Stephen KaplanStephen B. Kaplan is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs. Professor Kaplan’s research and teaching interests focus on the frontiers of international and comparative political economy, where he specializes in the political economy of global finance and development, the rise of China in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin American politics.

 

 

Picture of Dr. brautigamA leading expert on China in Africa, Professor Brautigam is the author of Will Africa Feed China? (Oxford University Press, 2015), The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa (Oxford University Press, 2010; Chinese version published by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Press) and Chinese Aid and African Development: Exporting Green Revolution (St. Martin’s Press, 1998). She is also co-editor of Taxation and State-Building: Capacity and Consent(Cambridge University Press, 2008) as well as numerous articles published in academic journals and public affairs media. Professor Brautigam regularly advises international agencies and governments on China-Africa economic engagement.

Picture of Jay ShambaughJay Shambaugh is a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at the George Washington University. Professor Shambaugh’s area of research is macroeconomics and international economics. His work includes analysis of the interaction of exchange rate regimes with monetary policy, capital flows, and trade flows as well as studies of international reserves holdings, country balance sheet exchange rate exposure, the cross-country impact of fiscal policy, the crisis in the euro area, and regional growth disparities.
He has had two stints in public service. He served as a Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 2015-2017. Earlier, he served on the staff of the CEA as a Senior Economist for International Economics and then as the Chief Economist. He also spent 3 years as the Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER and Non-Resident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings.

Prior to joining the faculty at George Washington, Shambaugh taught at Georgetown and Dartmouth and was a visiting scholar at the IMF. Shambaugh received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.A. from the Fletcher School at Tufts, and a B.A. from Yale University.

Recovering from Pandemic Recessions

Friday, November 20, 2020
WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

In this panel event, Dr. John Rogers, Senior Adviser at the Federal Reserve Board, and Michael Song, Professor of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, will share their respective research investigating economic recessions and recoveries during modern health crises and China’s economic experience during the current pandemic.

Examining historical episodes, John Rogers’ latest work finds that during the previous modern health crises, real GDP growth fell by around three percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth was rapid, but output was still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers was higher and exhibited more persistence, and there was significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. The negative effects on GDP and unemployment were felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Affected countries’ consumption declined, investment dropped sharply, and international trade plummeted. Bounce-back in these expenditure categories is also rapid but not by enough to restore pre-shock trends. These estimates are viewed as a lower bound for the global economic effects of COVID-19.

Zooming in on the effect of the pandemic and lockdown policy on Chinese economy, Michael will first show his estimates on the economic impacts of COVID-19 using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data from China. The largest economic impacts are from COVID shocks to Wuhan and Beijing, knocking about three percentage points off the national real income. If all Chinese cities had containment policies that responded to local pandemic severity in the same way as those in Hubei did, China’s first-quarter real income would have been reduced by half. He will then use firm registration records, online sales and job posting data to show the recovery of Chinese economy and its structural patterns.

Meet the Speakers:

Picture of John RogersJohn Rogers is a Senior Adviser in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. He received his BA from the University of Delaware and PhD in economics from the University of Virginia. John was on the economics department faculty at Penn State University, where he rose to Associate Professor in 1996. He began working on the Fed’s multi-country model in the Trade & Financial Studies section, and became section chief in 2003. John is the author of several academic publications in international finance and macroeconomics. He continues to teach those subjects as an adjunct professor in the economics department at Georgetown University. John is the father of five children.

Picture of Michael SongMichael Song is a professor at the Department of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), an outstanding fellow of the Faculty of Social Science at CUHK, a co-director of CUHK-Tsinghua Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy and a distinguished visiting professor at the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University. His research focuses on Chinese economy and macroeconomics. He published papers on leading academic journals including American Economic Review and Econometrica. His paper “Growing like China” won Sunyefang Economic Science Award and the Best Paper Award for Chinese Young Economists. Before joining CUHK, Prof. Song was an associate professor of economics at Chicago Booth. Prof. Song is also a co-editor of China Economic Review, an associate editor of Econometrica and Journal of European Economic Association and an academic committee member of China’s Economics Foundation.

Meet the Moderator:

Picture of Remi JedwabRémi Jedwab is an associate professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Elliott School and the Department of Economics of George Washington University and an Affiliated Scholar of the Marron Institute of Urban Management at New York University. Professor Jedwab’s main fields of research are development and growth, urban economics, labor economics and political economy. Some of the issues he has studied include urbanization and structural transformation, the relationship between population growth and economic growth, the economic effects of transportation infrastructure, and the roles of institutions, human capital and technology in development. He is the co-founder and co-organizer of the World Bank-GWU Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Conference and the Washington Area Development Economics Symposium. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Economic Journal, and the Journal of Urban Economics. Finally, he is an Associate Editor at the Journal of Urban Economics and Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Chinese Translation:

乔治华盛顿大学国际经济政策研究所 (The Institute for International Economic Policy) (IIEP) 欢迎您参加中国经济发展和中美经济关系的第十三届年会。今年的研讨会将以用虚拟方式进行。这个活动是全英文的。这次会议是由Sigur亚洲研究中心和乔治华盛顿国际商业教育与研究中心共同主办的。

 

在这次小组讨论会上,美联储高级顾问Dr. John Rogers 和香港中文大学宋铮(Michael Song) 教授将分享他们各自在有关现代健康危机导致的经济衰退和复苏和中国在Covid-19疫情期间经济走向的研究成果。

 

Dr. John Rogers 最近的研究发现在先前健康危机期间,疫情爆发当年,被影响的国家的实际国内生产总值相对于未受到影响的国家跌幅达到3%。实际国内生产总值反弹很快,但五年后产量仍然比爆发年前低。受教育程度较低的工人失业率持续偏高,并且表现出更大的持久性;女性失业持久性也明显比男性高。对在疫情第一年提供大量政府资助,尤其医疗方面支出,的国家,实际国内生产总值和失业影响偏小。受到影响的国家消费,投资,和国际贸易都跌幅很大,虽然反弹迅速,但仍然不足以恢复爆发年前的趋势。此研究认为以往健康危机对经济的影响是此次COVID-19 对全球经济影响的下限。

 

专注于目前Covid-19疫情与隔离政策对中国经济的影响,宋教授的工作指出隔离对经济,包括从人口和货物流动到总产出,都带来剧烈影响。消费支出的大小和结构也有很大的调整。隔离的时间结束以后,制造业恢复迅速,而用电量,零售额和餐饮收入则表现较大跨区域异质性,服务业产出的也受到更大影响。

 

演讲者:

 

宋铮 (Michael Song)

宋铮是香港中文大学经济系的教授,社会科学院的杰出学者, 清华大学-香港中文大学中国经济联合研究中心的主任,和清华大学经济管理学院杰出访问教授。他的研究领域为中国经济和宏观经济学。宋教授的论文在顶级学术期刊,包括American Economic Review 和 Econometrica,发表。他的论文 “Growing like China” 获得孙冶方经济学奖和中国青年经济学家优秀论文奖。在加入香港中文大学之前, 宋铮曾任芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学副教授。他的学术兼职还包括 China Economic Review 联合主编,Econometrica 和 Journal of European Economic Association 副主编, 中国经济学基金会学术委员会委员等。

 

John Rogers

John Rogers 是美联储国际金融部的高级顾问。他拥有德拉瓦大学 (University of Delaware) 的政治和经济学士学位,以及弗吉尼亚大学 (University of Virginia) 的经济学博士学位。 Dr. Rogers曾在宾夕法尼亚州立大学 (Pennsylvania State University) 经济系任教,并于1996年升任副教授。他在美联储的贸易与金融研究部门研究美联储的多国模型,并于2003年成为该部门负责人。 Dr. Rogers 是诸多国际金融和宏观经济学方面学术出版物的作者。目前Dr. Rogers 在乔治敦大学 (Georgetown University) 经济学系担任兼职教授。他也是五个小孩的爸爸。

International Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region Amidst U.S.-China Tensions

Tuesday, November 10, 2020
7:00 p.m. – 8:15 p.m. EST
via Zoom

The Institute for International Economic Policy was pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. The conference took place as a virtual series and was co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research. This event in the series was co-sponsored and hosted by Elliott School of International Affairs Alumni Programs.

Since 2017, trade disputes between the U.S. and China have spiraled into a full blown economic and trade war. U.S. tariff rates on Chinese imports rose from an average 3.1 percent “Most Favored Nation” rate in 2017 to above 20 percent in 2020, covering essentially all imports including both intermediate and consumer goods. China responded by imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products ranging from soybeans to electrical equipment and autos. This trade war has rippled throughout the region to affect the countries of the Asia-Pacific and beyond.

This online panel discussion featured two prominent GW alumni working in the Asia-Pacific region: Chris Fussner, CCAS BA ’79, founder and president of TransTechnology Worldwide, based in Singapore, and Frank Wong, ESIA BA ’79, president of Scholastic Asia, based in Hong Kong. Prof. Maggie Chen, professor of economics and international affairs at the George Washington University, moderated the discussion.

Meet the Discussants:

Picture of Maggie ChenMaggie Chen is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University. She has served as Director of GW’s Institute for International Economic Policy and worked as an economist in the research department of the World Bank and a consultant for the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Professor Chen’s research areas include multinational firms, international trade, and regional trade agreements. Her work has been published in academic journals such as the Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of International Economics, and Journal of Development Economics. She is a co-editor of Economic Inquiry and an associate editor of Economic Modeling.

Picture of Chris FussnerChris Fussner is founder and president of TransTechnology Worldwide, based in Singapore, a market leader in the sales and distribution of surface mount technology with offices in 9 countries in Asia and 3 countries in North America. Prior to forming TransTechnology in 1988, Mr. Fussner headed Far East Sales for Amistar Corporation based in Seoul, Korea and Singapore, where he was responsible for Sales and Service for electronics manufacturing industry machines in the Pacific, as well as the Western United States. Mr. Fussner started his international career working with relief and refugee resettlement in West Africa and Malaysia. He holds a B.A. in History and Asian Studies from GW, and a Master of International Management from the Thunderbird School of Global Management. He previously served on the board of advisors for GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs.

Picture of Frank WongFrank Wong is President of Scholastic Asia, and based in Hong Kong. Before joining Scholastic Asia as President over 15 years ago, he was Managing Director of PepsiCo’s food business in China and established best practices in sales execution and in-store merchandising. Prior to PepsiCo, Frank Wong spent 5 years with Nabisco, successfully building the company’s international brand identity. Wong also held various marketing positions at Colgate-Palmolive in New York and was co-founder and President of a start-up venture to develop and market special electronic products for the visually impaired around the world. Mr. Wong was born in Hong Kong and speaks fluent Mandarin and Cantonese. In addition to his degree from GW, he holds a Masters in International Affairs from Columbia University and did advanced studies at Harvard’s JFK School of Government. He is the recipient of the 2015 Alumni Outstanding Service Award from the GW Alumni Association.

13th China Conference Keynote Address: China’s Overseas Lending and Developing-Country Debt After COVID with Carmen Reinhart

Friday, October 30, 2020
9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
via WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year the conference will take place as a virtual series, beginning on October 30th, with a keynote address from Carmen Reinhart on “Debt After COVID”. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly lengthened the list of developing and emerging market economies in debt distress. For some, a crisis is imminent. For many more, only exceptionally low global interest rates may be delaying a reckoning. Default rates are rising, and the need for debt restructuring is growing. Yet new challenges may hamper debt workouts unless governments and multilateral lenders provide better tools to navigate a wave of restructuring.

About the Speaker:

Picture of Carmen M. Reinhart

Carmen M. Reinhart is the Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. Assuming this role on June 15, 2020, Reinhart provides thought leadership for the institution at an unprecedented time of crisis. She also manages the Bank’s Development Economics Department.

Reinhart’s areas of expertise are in international finance and macroeconomics. Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises in both advanced economies and emerging markets. She has published extensively on capital flows, exchange rate policy, banking and sovereign debt crises, and contagion. She comes to this position on public service leave from Harvard Kennedy School where she is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System. Previously, she was the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Economics at the University of Maryland.

During her career, Reinhart has worked in numerous roles to address policy challenges including most recently, the coronavirus pandemic and its economic impact. She serves in the Advisory Panels of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the International Monetary Fund. Earlier, she was the Senior Policy Advisor and Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund and held positions as Chief Economist and Vice President at the investment bank Bear Stearns.

Ranked among the top Economists worldwide based on publications and scholarly citations, Reinhart has been listed among Bloomberg Markets Most Influential 50 in Finance, Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, and Thomson Reuters’ The World’s Most Influential Scientific Minds. In 2018 she was awarded the King Juan Carlos Prize in Economics and NABE’s Adam Smith Award, among others. Her book (with Kenneth S. Rogoff) entitled This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly has been translated to over 20 languages and won the Paul A. Samuelson Award. She holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University.

Recording of the event: here

Transcript of the event: here

 

Covering The Other Half Billion: China’s Rural Sector

Thursday, February 27th, 2020
4:30 PM-6:00 PM

Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Elliott School of International Affairs
The George Washington University
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052

For much of post-1949 history, the rural sector has been the poor relation of China’s society and economy. Today, however, the rural sector lies at the heart of Xi Jinping’s economic agenda for China’s comprehensive development. The party’s and government’s ability to fulfill major economic goals—those relating to employment, food security and rebalancing of the economic system—depend critically on the success of its rural policies. So too does its ability to realize important social and other goals—including poverty reduction, the creation of a more inclusive society, and environmental sustainability. An economically and socially revitalised Chinese countryside will also impact the political stability which China’s leaders see as the bedrock of their continuing rule. This lecture will explore all of these dimensions.

 

Speakers

Professor Robert Ash

Professor of Economics with reference to China and Taiwan

School of Oriental & African Studies

University of London

Professor Robert Ash is a Professorial Fellow in the China Institute at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), where he teaches in the School of Financial and Management Studies as Professor of Economics with reference to China and Taiwan. From 1986 to 1995 he was Head of the Contemporary China Institute at SOAS, and from 1997-2001 was Director of the EU-China Academic Network (ECAN). From 1999 to 2013 he was also Director of the SOAS Taiwan Studies Programme.

Professor Ash has held visiting research and teaching positions at universities in Australia, Hong Kong, France and Italy. He has been researching China for more than 40 years and has published on development issues relating to China, as well as on Taiwan and Hong Kong. His most recent major publication (2017) is a study of China’s agricultural development between 1840 and the present day, Agricultural Development in the World Periphery: A Global Economic History Approach. He has also undertaken a wide range of consultancy work in both private and public sectors—including for the British Government, the European Commission, European Parliament and the UN International Labour Organisation.

Moderator

Professor David Shambaugh

Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science & International Affairs

Director, China Policy Program

The George Washington University

 

The Biden Administration Turns to a Deteriorating US-China Relationship

Friday, January 15, 2021
09:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.
WebEx

The Institute for International Economic Policy is pleased to invite you to the 13th annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations. This year, the conference will take place as a virtual series. This conference is co-sponsored by the Sigur Center for Asian Studies and the GW Center for International Business Education and Research.

In this event, Professor David Michael Lampton will give a keynote address on the future of U.S.-China relations under a new American administration. He will be joined by Barbara Stallings, IIEP Distinguished Visiting Scholar and William R. Rhodes Research Professor at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, and Deborah Lehr, Vice Chairman and Executive Director of the Paulson Institute.

About the Speakers: 

David M. Lampton is Senior Fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute and Professor Emeritus at Johns Hopkins–SAIS. Immediately prior to his current post he was Oksenberg- Rohlen Fellow at Stanford University’s Asia-Pacific Research Center from 2019-2020. For more than two decades prior to that he was Hyman Professor and Director of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Lampton is former Chairman of the The Asia Foundation, former President of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, and former Dean of Faculty at SAIS. Among many written works, academic and popular is his most recent book (with Selina Ho and Cheng-Chwee Kuik), Rivers of Iron: Railroads and Chinese Power in Southeast Asia (University of California Press, 2020). He received his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees from Stanford University in political science where, as an undergraduate student, he was a firefighter. Lampton has an honorary doctorate from the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Far Eastern Studies. He served for many years on the Board of Trustees of Colorado College and was in the US Army Reserve in the enlisted and commissioned ranks.

photo of deborah lehrDeborah Lehr is the Vice Chairman and Executive Director of the Paulson Institute. In that capacity, she advises the Chairman on U.S.–China relations as well as oversees the development and implementation of Paulson Institute programs and initiatives. In addition, Ms. Lehr manages the Green Finance Center for the Paulson Institute.

Ms. Lehr has served in the public, private and not for profit sectors focused on China, the Middle East and emerging markets. She advised Mr. Paulson when he was the CEO and Chairman of Goldman Sachs and helped then-Treasury Secretary Paulson to create and launch the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue.

In addition, she served as Senior Advisor to the Chairman and CEO of Merrill Lynch and was a Senior Managing Director at the New York Stock Exchange. Ms. Lehr has built several successful consulting businesses, including as a partner at Mayer Brown, a top-10 law firm, as President of Stonebridge China and then with her own firm, Basilinna. Basilinna is focused on China and the Middle East.

Ms. Lehr also served in the U.S. Government in the Executive Office of the President as a Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for China, where she was a lead negotiator for China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, for two intellectual property rights negotiations and on the team for the 1992 Market Access Agreement. Also, Ms. Lehr was one of the youngest Directors of Asian Affairs at the National Security Council. Previous to that, she was involved in export control and trade policy issues at the Department of Commerce.

As the Founder and Chairman of the Antiquities Coalition, she works with governments around the world to fight against the illicit trade in antiquities. She serves on the International Advisory Board of the London School of Economics, the World Monuments Fund Board and the Middle East Institute Board. Ms. Lehr is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. UNESCO listed Ms. Lehr on its inaugural list of accomplished global women. She also received the prestigious Hadrian Award from the World Monument Fund for her work in fighting the illicit trade in antiquities.

Ms. Lehr has lived and studied around the world, including China, England, France, and Germany. Her writings have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Huffington Post, Foreign Affairs, South China Morning Post, U.S. News and World Report, Caixin Magazine, and Xinhua.net, among others.

About the Moderator: 

photo of Barbara StallingsBarbara Stallings is William R. Rhodes Research Professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and editor of Studies in Comparative International Development. She is also a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University. Before arriving at Brown in 2002, she was director of the Economic Development Division of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, Chile (1993–2002), and professor of political economy at the University of Wisconsin–Madison (1977–1993). She has doctorates in economics (University of Cambridge) and in political science (Stanford University) and is a specialist in development economics, with an emphasis on development strategies and international finance. In addition, she works on issues of economic relations between Asia and Latin America and comparisons between the two regions. Her recent books are Innovation and Inclusion in Latin America: Strategies to Avoid the Middle Income Trap (2016) and Promoting Development: The Political Economy of East Asian Foreign Aid (2017). Her most recent book, Dependency in the Twenty-First Century? The Political Economy of China-Latin America Relations (2020), was selected as one of Foreign Affairs’ best books of 2020. She has taught at various universities in China and elsewhere in Asia; currently she is a distinguished visiting professor at the Schwarzman Program at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

Mardi Dungey Memorial Research Conference

Mardi Dungey Memorial Research Conference
Friday, February 21, 2020
8:00 am – 5:30 pm (Conference)
5:30pm – 7:30 pm (Reception)
Lindner Commons, Suite 602
1957 E St NW
Washington, D.C. 20052

On behalf of the Institute for International Economic Policy, the Research Program on Forecasting, the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, University of Tasmania, and the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, you are cordially invited to the Mardi Dungey Memorial Research Conference on February 21, 2020. The event is named in honor of Mardi Dungey, Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Tasmania, Adjunct Professor and Program Director, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU, Senior Research Associate at the Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy at Cambridge University, and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia.

Agenda

8:00am- 8:45am: Breakfast

8:45am – 9:10am

Introduction, Stephen Smith, Chair, Department of Economics and Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Institute for International Economic Policy, GWU

Opening Remarks, Tara Sinclair, George Washington University

9:10 – 9:30am: A Panel on Mardi Dungey’s Contributions

Vanessa Smith, University of York

Renee Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University

Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University

Chaired by: Renee Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University

9:30 – 10:30am

Econometrics of Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility, Eric Renault, University of Warwick

Chaired by: Vance Martin, University of Melbourne

10:30 – 11:00am: Coffee Break

11:00 – 11:45am

Leaning Against the Wind: An Empirical Cost-Benefit Analysis, Gaston Gelos, International Monetary Fund

Chaired by: Tara Sinclair, George Washington University

11:45am – 12:30pm

The Gains from Catch-up for China and the U.S.: An Empirical Framework, Denise Osborn, University of Manchester

Chaired by: Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal, CIREQ & CIRANO

12:30 – 1:30pm: Lunch Break

1:30 – 2:30pm

Measurement of Factor Strength: Theory and Practice, Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge University

Chaired by: Nigel Ray, International Monetary Fund

2:30 – 2:45pm: Coffee Break

2:45 – 3:30pm

Inflation: Expectations, Structural Breaks, and Global Factors, Pierre Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier University

Chaired by: Gerald Dwyer, Clemson University

3:30 – 4:15pm

Multivariate Trend-Cycle-Seasonal Decomposition with Correlated Innovations, Jing Tian, University of Tasmania

Chaired by: Edda Claus, Wilfrid Laurier University

4:15 – 4:30pm: Coffee Break

4:30 – 5:15pm

The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles, Graciela Kaminsky, George Washington University

Chaired by: Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, International Monetary Fund

5:15 – 5:30pm: Closing Remarks

Marty Robinson, Australian Treasury

Vladimir Volkov, University of Tasmania

Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University

Chaired by: Renee Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University

5:30 – 7:30pm: Reception

12th Annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Relations

Friday, November 8th, 2019

Lindner Family Commons, 6th Floor

Elliott School for International Affairs

1957 E Street, NW Washington DC 20052

Schedule of Events

08:15-08:50:  Coffee and Registration

08:50-09:00:  Welcoming Remarks: James Foster (IIEP Director, GWU)


09:00-09:45: Keynote:

Daniel Xu (Duke University): “Fiscal Policies and Firm Investment in China”

09:45-10:45: The Political Economy of Protests

Moderator: Bruce Dickson (GWU)

David Yang (Harvard University): “Persistent Political Engagement: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Protest Movements”

Davin Chor (Dartmouth College): The Political Economy Consequences of China’s Export Slowdown”. Chor’s work is available here.

10:45-11:15: Coffee Break

11:15-12:15: Capital Market Liberalization and Industrial Policy

Moderator: Chao Wei (GWU)

John Rogers (Federal Reserve Board): “The Effect of the China Connect”

Wenli Li (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia): “Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth”. Li’s work is available here.

12:15-13:15: Lunch and Poster Session

13:15–14:30: Policy Keynotes:

Chad Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics): “The U.S.-China trade relationship under the Trump administration”. Bown’s work is available here 

David Shambaugh (GWU): “Stresses and Strains in U.S.-China Relations: Origins, Consequences, and Outlook”

14:30-15:00: Coffee Break

15:00-16:00: Industrial Policy, Technology Transfer, and Financial Access

Moderator: Maggie Chen (GWU)

Jie Bai (Harvard University): “Quid Pro Quo, Knowledge Spillovers and Industrial Quality Upgrading”

Jing Cai (University of Maryland): “Direct and Indirect Effects of Financial Access on SMEs”

16:00-17:00: The Belt and Road Initiative

Moderator: Stephen Kaplan (GWU)

Jamie P. Horsley (Brookings Institution): “Belt & Road Governance Challenges and Developments”

Scott Morris (Center for Global Development): “Belt & Road’s Debt and Project Risks”

An archive of all previous Annual Conferences on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations is available here.

For more information, please contact Kyle Renner at iiep@gwu.edu or 202-994-5320.

Cosponsored by:

9th Annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S. China Economic Relations

Click here to view videos

The U.S.-China relationship is now second to none in importance for international economic relations and policy and accordingly is a major focus of IIEP. The centerpiece of this initiative is our annual Conference on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic and Political Relations

This year, key topics discussed will include China’s financial market, the state of China’s macro-economy, the China-Africa relationship, and China’s outward investments and their impacts. For more information about the conference and bios of each panelist, visit our blog

An archive of all previous Annual Conferences on China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations is available here. For more information, please contact Kyle Renner at iiep@gwu.edu or 202-994-5320.

Schedule of Events

November 11, 2016

8:00 – 8:50AM Coffee and Continental Breakfast

8:50 – 9:00AM Welcome and Overview of the Conference

  • Stephen Smith, Director, Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP), Professor of Economics and International Affairs, GWU

9:00 – 11:00AM Panel 1: The Future of Trade Integration in the Asia Pacific

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Steve SuranovicProfessor of Economics and International Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Jeff Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Will the US Invest in or Divest from Asia-Pacific Economic Integration?” 
  • Michael Plummer, JHU, “Megaregionalism in the Asia-Pacific and Options for Shared Chinese-US Leadership”
  • Jiandong Ju, Shanghai University of Finance & Economics, “Huaxia Community: A FTA and a New Architecture for the Global Economic System”

11:00 – 11:15AM Coffee Break

11:15 – 12:45PM Panel 2:The Internet in China’s Economy

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Susan Aaronson, Research Professor of Intenrational Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Hong Xue, Beijing Normal University, “Chinese Electronic Commerce Law: the New Basic Law for Digital Economy”
  • Jingting Fan, UMD, “The Alibaba Effect: Spatial Consumption Inequality and the Welfare Gains from e-Commerce”
  • Maggie Chen, George Washington University, “International Trade on the Internet: Evidence from Alibaba”

12:45 – 2:00PM Lunch

2:00 – 3:30PM Panel 3: Trade, Migration, and Wage Premium in China

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Joseph PelzmanProfessor of Economics and International Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Chao Wei, George Washington University, The Short and Long of Trade and Migration Reforms in China (joint with Xiaodong Zhu)
  • RuiXue Jia, UCSD, “Access to Elite Education, Wage Premium, and Social Mobility: The Truth and Illusion of China’s College Entrance Exam”
  • Eunhee Lee, University of Maryland at College Park, “Trade, Inequality, and the Endogenous Sorting of Heterogeneous workers”
3:30 – 4:00PM: Coffee Break

4:00 – 5:30PM  Panel 4: China’s Macroeconomy, Urban Growth and Policy Analysis

Moderated by IIEP affiliate Remi Jedwab, Professor of Economics and International Affairs, The George Washington University

  • Zheng LiuFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (also affiliated with the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance),“Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy”
  • Matthew TurnerBrown University, “Highways, Market Access and Urban Growth in China”
  • Kai ZhaoUniversity of Connecticut, “The Chinese Saving Rate: Productivity, Old Age Support and Demographics