Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses

November 2019

Tomas Williams, Charles W. Calomiris, Mauricio Larrain, Sergio L. Schmukler

IIEP working paper 2019-15

Abstract: Emerging market corporations have significantly increased their borrowing in international markets since 2008. We show that this increase was driven by large denomination bond issuances, most of them with face value of exactly US$500 million. Large issuances are eligible for inclusion in important international market indexes. These bonds appeal to institutional investors because they are more liquid and facilitate targeting market benchmarks. We find that the rewards of issuing index-eligible bonds rose drastically after 2008. Emerging market firms were able to cut their cost of funds by more than 76 basis points by issuing bonds with a face value equal to or greater than US$500 million relative to smaller bonds. Firms contemplating whether to take advantage of this cost saving faced a tradeoff after 2008: they could benefit from the lower yields associated with large, indexeligible bonds, but they paid the potential cost of having to hoard low-yielding cash assets if their investment opportunities were less than US$500 million. Because of the post-2008 “size yield discount,” many companies issued index-eligible bonds, while substantially increasing their cash holdings. We present evidence suggesting that these post-2008 behaviors reflected a search for yield by institutional investors into higher-risk securities. These patterns are not apparent in the issuance of investment grade bonds by firms in developed economies.

JEL Classification Codes: F21, F23, F32, F36, F65, G11, G15, G31

Keywords: benchmark indexes, bond issuance, corporate financing, emerging markets,
institutional investors

Emerging Trade Battlefield with China: Export Competition and Firms’ Coping Strategies

October 2019

Yao Pan, Katariina Nilsson Hakkala

IIEP working paper 2019-14

Abstract: This paper analyzes how intensified Chinese export competition affects the exports and product ranges of Western firms. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits changes in Chinese export policies, we find that Chinese export competition reduces aggregate product level exports of Finland. Firm-level analysis using administrative data further shows that Chinese competition leads to substantial price cuts to retain market shares, especially for homogeneous products. In addition, we also discover that firms respond to the increased level of Chinese export competition by dropping their marginal products. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of export competition with China for developed countries.

Keywords: Trade Flows, Export Competition, Firm-level, Product Mix, China

JEL Classification: F14, F61, L25

Mardi Dungey Memorial Research Conference

Mardi Dungey Memorial Research Conference
Friday, February 21, 2020
8:00 am – 5:30 pm (Conference)
5:30pm – 7:30 pm (Reception)
Lindner Commons, Suite 602
1957 E St NW
Washington, D.C. 20052

On behalf of the Institute for International Economic Policy, the Research Program on Forecasting, the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, University of Tasmania, and the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, you are cordially invited to the Mardi Dungey Memorial Research Conference on February 21, 2020. The event is named in honor of Mardi Dungey, Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Tasmania, Adjunct Professor and Program Director, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU, Senior Research Associate at the Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy at Cambridge University, and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia.

Agenda

8:00am- 8:45am: Breakfast

8:45am – 9:10am

Introduction, Stephen Smith, Chair, Department of Economics and Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Institute for International Economic Policy, GWU

Opening Remarks, Tara Sinclair, George Washington University

9:10 – 9:30am: A Panel on Mardi Dungey’s Contributions

Vanessa Smith, University of York

Renee Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University

Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University

Chaired by: Renee Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University

9:30 – 10:30am

Econometrics of Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility, Eric Renault, University of Warwick

Chaired by: Vance Martin, University of Melbourne

10:30 – 11:00am: Coffee Break

11:00 – 11:45am

Leaning Against the Wind: An Empirical Cost-Benefit Analysis, Gaston Gelos, International Monetary Fund

Chaired by: Tara Sinclair, George Washington University

11:45am – 12:30pm

The Gains from Catch-up for China and the U.S.: An Empirical Framework, Denise Osborn, University of Manchester

Chaired by: Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal, CIREQ & CIRANO

12:30 – 1:30pm: Lunch Break

1:30 – 2:30pm

Measurement of Factor Strength: Theory and Practice, Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge University

Chaired by: Nigel Ray, International Monetary Fund

2:30 – 2:45pm: Coffee Break

2:45 – 3:30pm

Inflation: Expectations, Structural Breaks, and Global Factors, Pierre Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier University

Chaired by: Gerald Dwyer, Clemson University

3:30 – 4:15pm

Multivariate Trend-Cycle-Seasonal Decomposition with Correlated Innovations, Jing Tian, University of Tasmania

Chaired by: Edda Claus, Wilfrid Laurier University

4:15 – 4:30pm: Coffee Break

4:30 – 5:15pm

The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles, Graciela Kaminsky, George Washington University

Chaired by: Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, International Monetary Fund

5:15 – 5:30pm: Closing Remarks

Marty Robinson, Australian Treasury

Vladimir Volkov, University of Tasmania

Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University

Chaired by: Renee Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University

5:30 – 7:30pm: Reception

2nd Annual Washington Area Labor Economics Symposium (WALES)

February 28th, 2020
8:30 am to 5:00 pm
Linder Family Commons, Suite 602
Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E St NW
Washington, D.C. 20052

WALES is a one-day labor economics conference that brings together researchers from DC-area institutions. The goal is to provide an outlet to share work in progress and get to know other researchers. Breakfast, lunch and coffee will be served.

Click here to find an archive of the previous WALES conferences.

Agenda 

8:15am- 8:50am: Breakfast & Welcome

8:45am-9:00am: Welcome Bryan Stuart and TBD

Session 1: Recessions and the Labor Market

9:00am-9:30pm: “The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate”, Joshua

Montes, Federal Reserve, with Tomaz Cajner and John Coglianese

9:30am-10:00am: “Did Timing Matter? Life Cycle Differences in Exposure to the Great Recession”,

Kevin Rinz, Census Bureau 

10:00am-10:30am: “Excess Capacity and Heterogeneity in the Fiscal Multiplier: Evidence from the

Obama Stimulus Package”, Thomas Hegland, Agency for Healthcare Research and

Quality with Arindrajit Dube, Ethan Kaplan, and Ben Zipperer

10:30am-11:00am: Coffee Break

Session 2: Discrimination

11:00am-11:30am: “Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility: Theory and Evidence

from China and India”, Forhad Shilpi, World Bank with M. Shahe Emran and

Hanchen Jiang

11:30am- 12:00pm: “In-group Bias and the Police: Evidence from Award Nominations”, Nayoung

Rim, US Naval Academy, with Bocar Ba and Roman Rivera

12:00pm- 1:30pm: Lunch & Poster Session

Session 3: Public Sector Employment

1:30pm-2:00pm: “Managers and Productivity in the Public Sector”, Alessandra Fenizia, GWU

2:00pm-2:30pm: “Recruitment, effort, and retention effects of performance contracts for civil

servants: Experimental evidence from Rwandan primary schools”, Andrew Zeitlin,

Georgetown University, with Clare Leaver, Owen Ozier, and Pieter Serneelsz

2:30pm-2:50pm: Coffee Break

Session 4: Labor Supply

2:50pm-3:20pm: “Rural Labor Market Responses to Large Lumpy Cash Transfers: Evidence from

Malawi”, Kate Ambler, International Food Policy Research Institute, with Alan de

Brauw and Susan Godlonton

3:20pm-3:50pm: “Hope for the Family: The Effects of College Costs on Maternal Labor Supply”,

Breno Braga, Urban Institute, with Olga Malkova

3:50pm-4:00pm: Break

Session 5: Education and the Labor Market

4:00pm-4:30pm: “Inequality and Wage Dynamics by Academic Majors”, Natalia Radchenko,

American University, with Natalia Kyui 

4:30:pm-5:00pm: “Do Postsecondary Training Programs Respond to Changes in the Labor Market?”,

Michel Grosz, FTC

5:00pm-6:00pm: Reception

Posters

Miriam Bruhn, World Bank, “The Impact of Mobile Money on Poor Rural Households: Experimental Evidence from Uganda” (with Christina Wieser, Johannes Kinzinger, Christian Ruckteschler, Soren Heitmann)

Elizabeth Anna Weber Handwerker, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Variation in the Impact of Explicit Oligopsony by Occupation” (with Matthew Dey)

Kelly Jones, American University, Reducing Maternal Labor Market Detachment: A role for Paid Family Leave (with Britni Wilcher)

Joshua Mask, University of Illinois Chicago, “Consequences of Immigrating During a Recession: Evidence from the US Refugee Resettlement Program”

Daniela Morar, Yale University, “Foreign TAs and student STEM outcomes”

Dani Sandler, Census Bureau, “Maternal Labor Dynamics: Participation, Earnings, and Employer Changes” (with Nichole Szembrot)

Tara Sinclair, George Washington University, “Mismatch in Online Job Search” (with Martha Gimbel)